2022 Diff thread.

[mikeywith]

at least the price is also up.

Oh fudge, did you really need to say that? could you not just talk about something else?  well thanks to you, we are back to 19k, would you please do us a great favour and stay bullish on diff while bearish on price?  

@ phill, I still don't see where the manipulation is, this rinse and repeat has been the norm for long, large U.S corps receive a dozen containers, they go online, bring the diff up, that makes a few other miners' lives a bit more miserable so they shut down, depending on the timing we could have a small tiny drop or none at all, stompix gets excited about how diff growth slowed down, I start online shopping for a Lambo, the next thing you know is another cargo ship arriving at one of the U.S ports loaded with couple dozen mining gears and I go back to fixing my old non-lambo car.

[stompix]

at least the price is also up.

Oh fudge, did you really need to say that? could you not just talk about something else?  well thanks to you, we are back to 19k, would you please do us a great favour and stay bullish on diff while bearish on price?  

 
Middle of the night and I'm laughing here hard enough to wake up my neighbors.

Mikey, it has to come from the heart, I can't just say we will crash to 10k when I don't believe it! Also, about doing "us" the favor, I'm actually the one being screwed probably the worse by this curse of having everything going the opposite way, making pennies for a dollar burned right now.
But I will take a bit of your advice, first thing tomorrow I'm buying some fudge, you got me craving for some  

As for the manipulation, that's just luck, from 79.4% we're up to 84.1% in what 8 hours, yes the pace is indeed slower than normal with the number of blocks behind growing but not at such pace, in 2-3 days we will see if something really happened. And if somebody says this because the merge on eth tomorrow (or today) I call it bs!

[philipma1957]

at least the price is also up.

Oh fudge, did you really need to say that? could you not just talk about something else?  well thanks to you, we are back to 19k, would you please do us a great favour and stay bullish on diff while bearish on price?  

 
Middle of the night and I'm laughing here hard enough to wake up my neighbors.

Mikey, it has to come from the heart, I can't just say we will crash to 10k when I don't believe it! Also, about doing "us" the favor, I'm actually the one being screwed probably the worse by this curse of having everything going the opposite way, making pennies for a dollar burned right now.
But I will take a bit of your advice, first thing tomorrow I'm buying some fudge, you got me craving for some  

As for the manipulation, that's just luck, from 79.4% we're up to 84.1% in what 8 hours, yes the pace is indeed slower than normal with the number of blocks behind growing but not at such pace, in 2-3 days we will see if something really happened. And if somebody says this because the merge on eth tomorrow (or today) I call it bs!

well bs=manipulation so we agree after all.😀

[mikeywith]

Middle of the night and I'm laughing here hard enough to wake up my neighbors.

Do they even sleep with all those gears you got inside the garage? 

making pennies for a dollar burned right now.

Ya, I head from my friends in EU that the electricity price has passed the roof already, what is the current price you pay? also, do you think it will get worse in the winter given that the gas mess of Russia does not seem like ending anytime soon.

As for the manipulation, that's just luck, from 79.4% we're up to 84.1% in what 8 hours, yes the pace is indeed slower than normal with the number of blocks behind growing but not at such pace, in 2-3 days we will see if something really happened. And if somebody says this because the merge on eth tomorrow (or today) I call it bs!

See, I'd like to stick to my general belief which states that after every  1-2+ cycles, other non-US large players will be forced out, but so far with 300 blocks we are still at about 93% pace, which doesn't really fit the narrative, 7% is a couple of hundred thousand gears, it can't be just a few small players leaving, while I do not think my theory is completely false, I think there is more to it than just the large guys grow and the small ones leave.

With that said, I still think any large change in difficulty has to come from the U.S, maybe some of the large players have shut down due to electricity shortages? maybe selling power to the grid makes them more profit than mining at this stage?

Also, it seems like Compass mining had their mining place in Canada shut down again on the 14th of this month, I don't know how much hashrate is there but I recall they had about 150MW there, not sure what hashrate that brings them.
 

[stompix]

well bs=manipulation so we agree after all.😀

Just to be clear, when I said bs I was referring to something about eth merge and gu drop somehow affecting down BTC rates, for the hashrate fluctuation as part of some major farm scheme, I won't call it bs but still I can't figure the math in $ revenue if they did this.

Do they even sleep with all those gears you got inside the garage?  

Oh no no no, again no! Fudge!!!

I'm not mining at home, I live in a flat in a closed-gate community, the gear would not see its first block before the police would be knocking.
I mine at my parent's farm, a former storage building, the usual stone and concrete farm with half a meter thick wall, and it's pretty far away from the house, some 75 meters to not be bothered about.
I wouldn't last with gear mining next to me even in a room or garage, I've actually had to buy a pair of headphones from a guy working at a shooting range as I can't tolerate the noise anymore, right now after more than 3 mins it somehow becomes like a screening noise that really hurts my head, like chalk on a blackboard.

Ya, I head from my friends in EU that the electricity price has passed the roof already, what is the current price you pay? also, do you think it will get worse in the winter given that the gas mess of Russia does not seem like ending anytime soon.

I have a prepaid plan with monthly/annual limits and of course peak power there, the math gets complicated as we get certificates that we can either sell or exchange at a fixed rate for MWh for every ton of biofuel generated.
But I would say ignoring a few obvious things the best scenario is 4e cents and the worse but closer to reality is 7ec.
This being said, this contract is in place for this year, next year, probably and most likely ebay!

As for energy overall in Europe yeah they were through the roof but it all depends, and it's not really about Russia. If the weather would be the same as last year when not even half of Europe has seen snow and 18C on Christmas the prices will note any higher, if France restarts as planned the reactors under maintenance (1 was restarted before the schedule) that's another 30GW, plus rain and hydro up, I don't think it will be that bad. Of course, not US or middle Eastern prices as we've never had those before but not really apocalypse scenarios.

Latest Block:   754361  (10 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   93.7670%  (378 / 403.13 expected, 25.13 behind)

vs

Current Pace:   79.4644%  (99 / 124.58 expected, 25.58 behind)

The difference to the previous difficulty in block time is constant after nearly 300 blocks if we exclude the start so probably even this 93% will be just a dream a few days later.

[mikeywith]

But I would say ignoring a few obvious things the best scenario is 4e cents and the worse but closer to reality is 7ec.
This being said, this contract is in place for this year, next year, probably and most likely ebay!

Sight, that would be a rough time, what are the chances of you getting the same rates or close enough? 10%?

if France restarts as planned the reactors under maintenance (1 was restarted before the schedule) that's another 30GW, plus rain and hydro up, I don't think it will be that bad. Of course, not US or middle Eastern prices as we've never had those before but not really apocalypse scenarios.

That makes sense, but I remember reading somewhere that nearly two-thirds of EU electricity come from oil, gas and coal, and fossil fuels, I think like 25% of the total power comes from gas alone, furthermore, it's not just EU, the whole world will be needing more power, China has started easing on the covid lockdown which might increase its demand for gas and oil, it's hard for me not to imagine a terrible winter for all of us (even worse for EU) but you know me, I am rather pessimistic.


Well, we are back at 91% pace, I found this on telegram, it was taken from Compass discord channel according to the person who posted it



It confirms my previous post, let's run some random math.

150MW at say average of 40w/th = 3750000 th or 3.75EH  > 1.7% of the total hashrate.
150MW at say average of 30w/th = 5000000 th or 5.0EH    > 2.27% of the total hashrate.

So could be safe to say that we know where a 2% drop is coming from, now it's up to you to figure out where the rest is coming from.

[stompix]

Sight, that would be a rough time, what are the chances of you getting the same rates or close enough? 10%?

Without acting like a drama queen, the chances are close to zero.
Those tariffs were put in place in October last year so obviously, that's a huge change and there is actual talk of decreasing the value of cogeneration certificates so it's all going probably to end by middle January. But, I'm not that concerned, I will drop the gear, put the money in BTC I bought it while BTC was 2.2 higher, it has done its work, I'm not at a loss, it was fun. All the money will go back in BTC if it does skyrockets to make me feel bad for quitting mining so will the value of the coins.

That makes sense, but I remember reading somewhere that nearly two-thirds of EU electricity come from oil, gas and coal, and fossil fuels, I think like 25% of the total power comes from gas alone,

Not really that bad but close to, but it's still 40% with half gas and half coal, so yeah, it will suck, probably take two-three years to completely balance everything, a real pain in the ass after two years of lockdowns and covid.

As for Compass mining, this is the third or fourth major screw-up, I remember the Russian gear stuff, the other shutdown for an unpaid bill, was something else? Clearly, not your keys not your coins, not your gear, your headaches.
But found something interesting from them:
https://twitter.com/cazenove_uk/status/1569305255417987078



That's were 35Exa are!

[mikeywith]

That's were 35Exa are!

Some of the numbers don't seem right in that picture, mara had only 0.7EH in July, and then suddenly 3.2E the next month? was it because they had to shut down in texas during the heat wave? I think this guy uses the amount of declared mined BTCby each of those companies, but do we know if that's even real?


Anyway, the pace has picked up and we are getting close to 100%, so another positive adjustment is possible

Latest Block:   754705  (20 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   99.1249%  (722 / 728.37 expected, 6.37 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   30977051760460.06                           
Current Difficulty:   32045359565303.14                           
Next Difficulty:   between 31765955038880 and 31880474835200
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.8719% and -0.5145%

[stompix]

Going down again, not much and can I can see it changing any time but still not the same build-up as last time.

Latest Block:   755338  (8 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   97.6626%  (1355 / 1387.43 expected, 32.43 behind)
Next Difficulty Change:   between -2.3358% and -2.0899%

Pice down, the difficulty might be down, but god!, what new offers for new clients on electricity have been circulating around here..
Get this, one of the "top" offers is at 110 Euros for 150kwh a month without subsidies, of course, the prices are subsidized till 200k kwh at ~25cents but if you go over it, it's 80 eurocents per kwh. Happy mining, everyone!!!
Bitmain has dumped the price to 1900 for the 19Pro and I have some real problems understanding this:



What am I missing here?

[philipma1957]

Going down again, not much and can I can see it changing any time but still not the same build-up as last time.

Latest Block:   755338  (8 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   97.6626%  (1355 / 1387.43 expected, 32.43 behind)
Next Difficulty Change:   between -2.3358% and -2.0899%

Pice down, the difficulty might be down, but god!, what new offers for new clients on electricity have been circulating around here..
Get this, one of the "top" offers is at 110 Euros for 150kwh a month without subsidies, of course, the prices are subsidized till 200k kwh at ~25cents but if you go over it, it's 80 eurocents per kwh. Happy mining, everyone!!!
Bitmain has dumped the price to 1900 for the 19Pro and I have some real problems understanding this:



What am I missing here?

instant ship on the one for edit 3230 3900 but uses 3250 watts and 95th

the one for 1900 is a 30 day wait.

but the 1900 one also gives you 30% coupon.

I order 1 of them the other day.

100th and 2950 watts looks good enough for me.

Waiting 30 days gives us time to clean the mine and redesign the cooling.


I would love to get all 100th units at 2950 watts. lots of over head the psu should last longer.


I would love to get s19xp doing 128th and 2700 watts 21 watts a th

My s17's held up running low and normal not turbo.

Hoping the same for my s19's or s19 xp's

[mikeywith]

Pice down, the difficulty might be down, but god!, what new offers for new clients on electricity have been circulating around here..
Get this, one of the "top" offers is at 110 Euros for 150kwh a month without subsidies, of course, the prices are subsidized till 200k kwh at ~25cents but if you go over it, it's 80 eurocents per kwh. Happy mining, everyone!!!

25 cents per kWh is "subsidized? damn.

I don't know how "enough is" 150 kwh in EU, here during the summer, in the smallest house ever you are going to need at least 25kwh per day, I am talking about a single room/studio type of apartment, in the winter it's probably 25-30kwh for the same house size, so really, doesn't matter how much you try to save on power, 150kw is going to finish in a week time, in my house, the daily average throughout the year is 100kwh, but we use electricity for everything, we only use gas for cooking and we hardly spend any money on insulation which makes the power consumption that high.

But man, my God be with you EU people, you guys will get through this.

Bitmain has dumped the price to 1900 for the 19Pro and I have some real problems understanding this:
What am I missing here?

It seems like nobody has been buying from them recently, all the large guys have already placed their orders and getting gears according to schedule, many people think that this is just an offer, but my guess, is this will be the normal price, maybe 200-400 up or down at most.

[philipma1957]

Pice down, the difficulty might be down, but god!, what new offers for new clients on electricity have been circulating around here..
Get this, one of the "top" offers is at 110 Euros for 150kwh a month without subsidies, of course, the prices are subsidized till 200k kwh at ~25cents but if you go over it, it's 80 eurocents per kwh. Happy mining, everyone!!!

25 cents per kWh is "subsidized? damn.

I don't know how "enough is" 150 kwh in EU, here during the summer, in the smallest house ever you are going to need at least 25kwh per day, I am talking about a single room/studio type of apartment, in the winter it's probably 25-30kwh for the same house size, so really, doesn't matter how much you try to save on power, 150kw is going to finish in a week time, in my house, the daily average thought the year is 100kw, but we use electricity for everything, we only use gas for cooking and we hardly spend any money on insulation which makes the power consumption that high.

But man, my God be with you EU people, you guys will get through this.

Bitmain has dumped the price to 1900 for the 19Pro and I have some real problems understanding this:
What am I missing here?

It seems like nobody has been buying from them recently, all the large guys have already placed their orders and getting gears according to schedule, many people think that this is just an offer, but my guess, is this will be the normal price, maybe 200-400 up or down at most.

Yeah I got one just to see what the coupon would be and it is 30%.

So next one could be as low as 1330.

[kano]

...
Yeah I got one just to see what the coupon would be and it is 30%.

So next one could be as low as 1330.

Which reminds me about how I keep saying that making miners is huge profits for BM and Canaan etc.
These things were sold for well over $10k not that long ago.

[philipma1957]

...
Yeah I got one just to see what the coupon would be and it is 30%.

So next one could be as low as 1330.

Which reminds me about how I keep saying that making miners is huge profits for BM and Canaan etc.
These things were sold for well over $10k not that long ago.

How does that saying go?

“all good things come to those who wait”

[stompix]

I don't know how "enough is" 150 kwh in EU, here during the summer, in the smallest house ever you are going to need at least 25kwh per day, I am talking about a single room/studio type of apartment, in the winter it's probably 25-30kwh for the same house size, so really, doesn't matter how much you try to save on power, 150kw is going to finish in a week time, in my house, the daily average throughout the year is 100kwh, but we use electricity for everything, we only use gas for cooking and we hardly spend any money on insulation which makes the power consumption that high.

I knew some will say wtf reading this, I bet Americans also would be shocked!  

Average household consumption in the EU is ~3-4000Khw a year, ours is lower than the median, we don't use AC that much and heating is either district heating or gas. My bill last October was 277Kwh, for a 107sqm 3bedrooms apartment, and it was around 60Euros with tax, same bill with new tariffs will be ~140Euros, manageable.

The concern is for business rates, that's where it's going to hurt and I have no clue right now as absolutely none of the big 3 energy providers here has an offer, it's all "ask/email/call for an offer". My neighbor who runs a car service has made an agreement for 34 cents for 6 months, if wholesale prices go lower and again a few stars align again I might be able to keep mining, but still, I give it like 0.1-1% chances.

Back to mining and bitmain, I went back to the first page and saw this:

At 21 cents per TH/s that S19j Bitmain offers needs one full year of this flat diff and zero cents per kWh to ROI.

Well, things haven't changed that much despite the gear being 5x cheaper, completely ignoring that S19 with 34$/T and going for the pro, at $1900 and 7.20$ per day fee electricity that's 263 days, 8 and a half months, at 3cent per kWh its roughly a year and a few days.

I do agree that this is a lot closer to the actual price that gear is worth, maybe a 30% profit from 1500$, taking into account they might have overpaid for chips?

[philipma1957]

I don't know how "enough is" 150 kwh in EU, here during the summer, in the smallest house ever you are going to need at least 25kwh per day, I am talking about a single room/studio type of apartment, in the winter it's probably 25-30kwh for the same house size, so really, doesn't matter how much you try to save on power, 150kw is going to finish in a week time, in my house, the daily average throughout the year is 100kwh, but we use electricity for everything, we only use gas for cooking and we hardly spend any money on insulation which makes the power consumption that high.

I knew some will say wtf reading this, I bet Americans also would be shocked!  

Average household consumption in the EU is ~3-4000Khw a year, ours is lower than the median, we don't use AC that much and heating is either district heating or gas. My bill last October was 277Kwh, for a 107sqm 3bedrooms apartment, and it was around 60Euros with tax, same bill with new tariffs will be ~140Euros, manageable.

The concern is for business rates, that's where it's going to hurt and I have no clue right now as absolutely none of the big 3 energy providers here has an offer, it's all "ask/email/call for an offer". My neighbor who runs a car service has made an agreement for 34 cents for 6 months, if wholesale prices go lower and again a few stars align again I might be able to keep mining, but still, I give it like 0.1-1% chances.

Back to mining and bitmain, I went back to the first page and saw this:

At 21 cents per TH/s that S19j Bitmain offers needs one full year of this flat diff and zero cents per kWh to ROI.

Well, things haven't changed that much despite the gear being 5x cheaper, completely ignoring that S19 with 34$/T and going for the pro, at $1900 and 7.20$ per day fee electricity that's 263 days, 8 and a half months, at 3cent per kWh its roughly a year and a few days.

I do agree that this is a lot closer to the actual price that gear is worth, maybe a 30% profit from 1500$, taking into account they might have overpaid for chips?

I would buy a lot at this price if the delay to ship was less.

buy 1 get next 30% off = 2 at about 3300
then do it again
Ibuy 1 get next one at 30% off = 2 at about 3300

so 4 four 6600 and tax which is 2000 = 8600 .

We could field 20 more of them the  power is there for them. I especially like the 100th at 2950 watt figure

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   755715  (8 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   98.4336%  (1732 / 1759.56 expected, 27.56 behind)
Previous Difficulty:   30977051760460.06                            
Current Difficulty:   32045359565303.14                            
Next Difficulty:   between 31543831554107 and 31553631755998

Next Difficulty Change:   between -1.5651% and -1.5345%

Previous Retarget:   September 13, 2022 at 3:28 PM  (+3.4487%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tuesday at 8:43 PM  (in 1d 23h 58m 49s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tuesday at 8:49 PM  (in 2d 0h 5m 11s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 5h 14m 26s and 14d 5h 20m 48s

380 blocks left maybe we drop to -2%


well we were 17 cents a kwatt summer price and drop to 14 cents winter price.

I ran a lot of gear in my garage this summer my power bills were 700-800 a month. that is over 4000kwatts a month. my neighbors are in the 2000 kwatt a month range for a hot damp summer like we had this year.

my earnings were break even in the garage.

the cilfton mine has the cheap power.

[mikeywith]

[if wholesale prices go lower and again a few stars align again I might be able to keep mining, but still, I give it like 0.1-1% chances.

Hopefully, in the next spring, any thing before that is probably unrealistic.

At 21 cents per TH/s that S19j Bitmain offers needs one full year of this flat diff and zero cents per kWh to ROI.

Well, things haven't changed that much despite the gear being 5x cheaper, completely ignoring that S19 with 34$/T and going for the pro, at $1900 and 7.20$ per day fee electricity that's 263 days, 8 and a half months, at 3cent per kWh its roughly a year and a few days.

You didn't have to dig this far for the post lol, I just mentioned a few weeks ago that buying S19 at 10k back then made a lot of sense than buying it at 4k 2 weeks ago, the math is rather simple, the difficulty is up 20-30%, price is down 60%, so for gears to make any sense they had drop by 80% or so, in fact, they should drop more given that the "desire" to buy mining gears in a bear market is less than that in the bull market.

@PhillI think 2k for S19 pro is a good buy, my only concern is that I don't trust Bitmain, I had a dream/nightmare about them selling the very low quality gears which failed some QC at a cheaper price lol, I am for real tho, after the terrible experience I had with the 17 series, I just can't touch Bitmain ever again.

[philipma1957]

well look at down side 1900 wait thirty days get miner and thirty percent coupon.

if prices drop and next miner is 1450 take off 450 1000

two miners at 2900 worst case is 100% loss they break in a day. you are out 2900.

so loss is capped and realistically i would not order second miner if first miner instantly failed.


so max loss is likely to be 2400 after trump tax if first one fails quickly.

if first one worls long enough for me to buy second one i may lay out 3000 and trump tax.

they both break  so out 4k and maybe i get a few hundreds in mining before both die.

so a 4k- 400= 3600 at the worst.

buying these make sense as i cant lose more than 3.6k at worse.

upside is a lot.

I will be buying and expanding for the next six months.

[mikeywith]

buying these make sense as i cant lose more than 3.6k at worse.

upside is a lot.

I will be buying and expanding for the next six months.

It makes sense to buy one and wait, test it for a while and then make decisions accordingly, this minimizes the risk of falling for a whole bad batch as most batches from bitmain differed in quality.

I also believe it's now the right time to start slowly expanding, I believe we have at least a year of a boring bear market whereby holding BTC is not going to yield anything.

[philipma1957]

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   755922  (a minute ago)

Current Pace:   97.7418%  (1939 / 1983.80 expected, 44.8 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   30977051760460.06                            
Current Difficulty:   32045359565303.14                            
Next Difficulty:   between 31322077259482 and 31323108613923

Next Difficulty Change:   between -2.2571% and -2.2538%
Previous Retarget:   September 13, 2022 at 3:28 PM  (+3.4487%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 11:13 PM  (in 0d 13h 7m 6s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 11:14 PM  (in 0d 13h 7m 47s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 7h 45m 5s and 14d 7h 45m 46s

dropped 1% overnight

maybe we go to -3%


and that would help a bit

should know in 12 hours or so.

Edit

-2.13%

31.36t