2022 Diff thread.

[philipma1957]

~

now you see the light 

Yeah, I can see it, but it's burning red, it seems hot as hell, it smells like it and I can see some horned ones dancing around it.

How so does the landing works exactly? you lend me x amount of money using my mining gears as collateral? and then if difficulty goes up or bitcoin prices go down (or both which is even worse) I get a margin call and pass you all my miners? if it's not my miners that you want to accept as collateral then what else do I have to offer you? I don't seem to get the logic here, perhaps someone can enlighten me.

On top of what Philip and NotFuzzyWarm said, I don't know about the others but with the Binance loan deal, it seems something like a loanshark pawnshop combination with the worse of the worse, so it's not just about taxes but securing a position in which they almost can't lose but also gain a lot.
Setting aside the 10% interest rate it seems like the sum is just credit for the operation, so you don't get a full stash of banknotes upfront you get a credit line from which you might spend 1$ or 100k each month but you pay on total, they have your gears as collateral, and you must secure this with crypto on top of, I assume they will appreciate gear value at 25% of used market price, plus, and this is the cherry on top, you'll be forced to mine at the own pool, so from here I can guess the next step is a lock on all your earnings to secure that credit line.

From what transpired right now it's more of a bankruptcy procedure than a loan even on paper.

The key for lots of business if you bankrupt don't have assets to be taken.

I do not like playing that way. But I do not own the two largest assets in my marriage.
The house and my wife's 401k are hers alone. So in the worst case for the mining business if it all falls apart we have a house and she has a 401k. And hopefully she keeps me around for my other talents.

And we are near flat:

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator ...

Latest Block:   760832  (11 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   99.3181%  (801 / 806.50 expected, 5.5 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   35610794164371.65                           
Current Difficulty:   36835682546787.98                           
Next Difficulty:   between 36600172999140 and 36685366046627
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.6394% and -0.4081%
Previous Retarget:   last Sunday at 7:48 PM  (+3.4397%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   November 6, 2022 at 8:16 PM  (in 8d 11h 3m 8s)
Next Retarget (latest):   November 6, 2022 at 9:06 PM  (in 8d 11h 53m 24s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 1h 28m 8s and 14d 2h 18m 24s

Many coins are rallying

BTC

LTC/Doge

are leading the way for POW coins

[1714030105]

1714030105

[1714030105]

1714030105

[mikeywith]

I wonder if things like the Colorado river would affect mining in the U.S, specifically California, I'd assume the dam they have there produces a good amount of hydraulic power, California has nearly 10% of the total hashrate in the states, I read the federal government would be cutting water supply to a few states west of Colorado, and CA is one of them.

Now time for some more math.

The current hashrate is estimated to be 280EH, to get it us a 10% increase, we need to add 28EH worth of hashrate.

28EH = 140,000 S19 pro hydro = 770 MW  = > 500M
28EH = 280,000 S19 pro          = 840 MW = about $500M

And from their own, it just gets worse, I don't think the world can spare nearly a billion dollars every 2 weeks and invest in BTC mining, IMO while BTC price is below 30k, 300EH hashrate is not sustainable, past 350E is near impossible.
 
In fact, I'd assume that so many of the current players are hanging by a thread, they would be lucky to keep their current operation on till the bull come and save them - let alone invest more money in mining, so I'd say it again, we have either hit the difficulty top or we are pretty close, and until the most left digit on the price charts goes from 2 to 3, this assumption still stands.

[DaveF]

On the flip side when you have big players like this going bankrupt:
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/10/27/bitcoin-miner-core-scientific-warns-it-might-go-bankrupt-stock-plunges.html
It may bring the hashrate down a bit unless the creditors keep the miners running to generate cashflow.

With colder weather coming to the northern hemisphere now we will probably see more small hobby miners running them for a bit of heat like we have been seeing every winter for a while now.

-Dave

[philipma1957]

On the flip side when you have big players like this going bankrupt:
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/10/27/bitcoin-miner-core-scientific-warns-it-might-go-bankrupt-stock-plunges.html
It may bring the hashrate down a bit unless the creditors keep the miners running to generate cashflow.

With colder weather coming to the northern hemisphere now we will probably see more small hobby miners running them for a bit of heat like we have been seeing every winter for a while now.

-Dave

also twitter is now with musk and oh doge went from 5.9 to 14 cents not  too shabby.

there is a lot of power not being used due to eth pulling a moron move.
some will shift to ltc/doge

want shifts to btc.

other factors. new  usa i bond rate will come out on nov 1

the i bond site was shut down for five days.

oct 27.28.29.30.31 no bonds could be purchased for  9.62% but on nov those will open again .

not sure what rate will be. not sure what feds move rate to on nov 2

so if rates stay crazy high we could see a big hash rate and big
rice drop.

keep your eyes open.


Oh off topic bitmain owes me a 30% coupon still waiting to get it.

and i have the unit for 10 days.

[mikeywith]

want shifts to btc.

I believe it doesn't matter what elon tweets, until the feds bring rates down, we wouldn't see any sustain spikes in any crypto currency.

Oh off topic bitmain owes me a 30% coupon still waiting to get it.

Did you account for the fact that they shipped it out a bit too early? it was supposed to be 30 days after shipment, no?



Back to difficulty:

We are back into positive as of now

Latest Block:   761293  (16 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   100.4033%  (1262 / 1256.93 expected, 5.07 ahead)
Previous Difficulty:   35610794164371.65                           
Current Difficulty:   36835682546787.98                           
Next Difficulty:   between 36972098405213 and 36994379444953
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.3703% and +0.4308%
Previous Retarget:   October 24, 2022 at 1:48 AM  (+3.4397%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Monday at 12:27 AM  (in 5d 5h 9m 42s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Monday at 12:38 AM  (in 5d 5h 21m 2s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 22h 39m 1s and 13d 22h 50m 21s

only 5 days left on this epoch, so nothing much can change from here own, it's a slight drop or a small increase.

[philipma1957]

...

Oh off topic bitmain owes me a 30% coupon still waiting to get it.

Did you account for the fact that they shipped it out a bit too early? it was supposed to be 30 days after shipment, no?

...

                  

hmm good point it shipped OCT 13

so maybe Nov 12 I get coupon.



At the moment LTC/Doge has decoupled from btc in terms of $ per watt.

a 110th s19 pro earns $7.80 a day pre power for about 85 kwatts

the L7 earns about $35.00 a day pre power for about 85 kwatts


before the doge price jump it was earning only $21.00 a day for 85 kwatts.

my eth gear before mr vb killed  it off was earning $30.00 a day for only 50 kwatts

So the profit shift is happening a bit in ltc/doge .

could mean a lot of things  maybe  nothing.

I am hoping doge will simply act to lead btc and it will shift to 11 a day for a s19 pro  time will tell.

[mikeywith]

hmm good point it shipped OCT 13

so maybe Nov 12 I get coupon.

I'd wait till Nov 13 and then start bugging them with emails.

a 110th s19 pro earns $7.80 a day pre power for about 85 kwatts

the L7 earns about $35.00 a day pre power for about 85 kwatts

When altcoins of any kind do better than BTC -- it's somehow good for BTC difficulty, I'd imagine that there is at least one person on earth who really needs to choose between running a BTC miner or an alt-miner due to some power constraints, so ya, you have a valid point.

As for those altcoins to lead us into a bull move, I highly doubt it, dogecoin only spiked because of Musk - Twitter, and I honestly think it's going to come crashing soon, but the despite that we need to keep in mind that doge has a market of cap of nearly 15B while BTC is close to 400B, it's so easy to move the former, all it needs is a few large players buying it, but with a huge market cap like BTC it takes some huge stuff to move it, like the fed to stop raising rates and for the world superpowers to sit down and start negation terms for ending the war in Ukraine.

[philipma1957]

hmm good point it shipped OCT 13

so maybe Nov 12 I get coupon.

I'd wait till Nov 13 and then start bugging them with emails.

a 110th s19 pro earns $7.80 a day pre power for about 85 kwatts

the L7 earns about $35.00 a day pre power for about 85 kwatts

When altcoins of any kind do better than BTC -- it's somehow good for BTC difficulty, I'd imagine that there is at least one person on earth who really needs to choose between running a BTC miner or an alt-miner due to some power constraints, so ya, you have a valid point.

As for those altcoins to lead us into a bull move, I highly doubt it, dogecoin only spiked because of Musk - Twitter, and I honestly think it's going to come crashing soon, but the despite that we need to keep in mind that doge has a market of cap of nearly 15B while BTC is close to 400B, it's so easy to move the former, all it needs is a few large players buying it, but with a huge market cap like BTC it takes some huge stuff to move it, like the fed to stop raising rates and for the world superpowers to sit down and start negation terms for ending the war in Ukraine.

Well since watt percent for my gear is

71%  btc
17%  gpus
10%   ltc/doge
  2%  grin and kda

I have grown my btc % and lowered my gpu %

doge/ltc stable
added 2% in those shit coins.

So basically I am focusing on more btc gear at the moment.

[stompix]

I wonder if things like the Colorado river would affect mining in the U.S, specifically California, I'd assume the dam they have there produces a good amount of hydraulic power, California has nearly 10% of the total hashrate in the states,

Are you sure about that?
California has the most expensive electricity rates there, and from what Foundry released they are not making even mentionable percentages:
https://twitter.com/foundryservices/status/1499019700294103040

Well since watt percent for my gear is

71%  btc
17%  gpus
10%   ltc/doge
  2%  grin and kda

I'm genuinely curious, what are those numbers on GPU, revenue vs expenses from what I see a 3090 is making 50 cents a day before costs.
Is it still worth keeping those on or you don't have sha256 to replace them so you let them burn excess power?
Damn, just look at the stats once more, at 8 cents you're losing money with it!

Anyhow, if anybody is in the mood for something funny:
Bloomberg article (archived here because of paywall) https://archive.ph/Ynm51

Bitcoin Miner Core Scientific Says It May Seek Bankruptcy
Core Scientific holds 24 Bitcoin and $26.6 million in cash

24 bitcoins! One of the biggest mining companies in the states if not the world has 24 bitcoins!!!!

[philipma1957]

I wonder if things like the Colorado river would affect mining in the U.S, specifically California, I'd assume the dam they have there produces a good amount of hydraulic power, California has nearly 10% of the total hashrate in the states,

Are you sure about that?
California has the most expensive electricity rates there, and from what Foundry released they are not making even mentionable percentages:
https://twitter.com/foundryservices/status/1499019700294103040

Well since watt percent for my gear is

71%  btc
17%  gpus
10%   ltc/doge
  2%  grin and kda

I'm genuinely curious, what are those numbers on GPU, revenue vs expenses from what I see a 3090 is making 50 cents a day before costs.
Is it still worth keeping those on or you don't have sha256 to replace them so you let them burn excess power?
Damn, just look at the stats once more, at 8 cents you're losing money with it!

Anyhow, if anybody is in the mood for something funny:
Bloomberg article (archived here because of paywall) https://archive.ph/Ynm51

Bitcoin Miner Core Scientific Says It May Seek Bankruptcy
Core Scientific holds 24 Bitcoin and $26.6 million in cash

24 bitcoins! One of the biggest mining companies in the states if not the world has 24 bitcoins!!!!

Our gpus all 10gh of them earn about 30 bucks a day. They are in a section of the warehouse complex that once housed a 1600 square freezer all the power is prepaid for that circuit til dec 2023.

So we can earn money and slowly sell them at the same time. So far we added five s19s and sold some of the gpus. we do not need to rush to dump the gpus

[mikeywith]

Are you sure about that?
California has the most expensive electricity rates there, and from what Foundry released they are not making even mentionable percentages:
https://twitter.com/foundryservices/status/1499019700294103040

I took Cambridge study as a reference, of course, it could be totally wrong.

Bitcoin Miner Core Scientific Says It May Seek Bankruptcy
Core Scientific holds 24 Bitcoin and $26.6 million in cash

"May the ships sink where they may", although I don't think it's that bad, not sure what they gain from declaring bankruptcy, they have a large infrastructure and a few hundred thousand of mining gears that are worth a lot more than the cash they hold now, but I am also sure they are not doing great.

I was talking with a Chinese supplier earlier and rumor has it that some of those large orders from Bitmain were canceled, it's probably why they brought their gear prices down for a while, lots of ready stock for some buyer who no longer wants the gears, not exactly sure how do these large guys make the contract with Bitmain, but these Chinese resellers are actually pretty close to Bitmain and I tend to believe that their info is valid.

[philipma1957]

Meanwhile price is dancing at 20000-20100

and the diff is

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator...

Latest Block:   761543  (2 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   99.6486%  (1512 / 1517.33 expected, 5.33 behind)

Previous Difficulty:   35610794164371.65                            
Current Difficulty:   36835682546787.98                            
Next Difficulty:   between 36714593067645 and 36722137831709
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.3287% and -0.3082%
Previous Retarget:   October 23, 2022 at 7:48 PM  (+3.4397%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Sunday at 7:54 PM  (in 3d 12h 13m 19s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Sunday at 7:59 PM  (in 3d 12h 17m 46s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 1h 6m 38s and 14d 1h 11m 5s...

maybe we close at 0%  

The grind continues.

s19 xp is around $5500 from the right seller

s19 xp  is earning 141 x 0.0696 = $9.81

11 cent power  $8.80 cost so profit is $1.01 pays off in 5,500 days
10 cent power  $8.00 cost so profit is $1.81 pays off in 3,038 days
09 cent power  $7.20 cost so profit is $2.61 "       "      2,107 days
08 cent power  $6.40 cost so profit is $3.41 "      "       1,612 days

07 "        "   $5.60 cost so profit is $4.21 pays off in 1306 days
06 "        "       $4.80. "          "      is $5.01  "      "       1097 days
05 "       "         $4.00 "           "     is $5.81 "       "       946 days
04 "       "         $3.20 cost so profit is 6.61 pays off in  832 days

03 "      "         $2.40 cost so profit is  $7.41 pays off in 742 days   this is decent
02 "      "         $1.60  "           "          $8.21  "        "    669 days   this is good


8 to 11 cent power is likely to be a  disaster

so 4 to 7 cent power may work out

2 or 3 cent power is pretty good


these numbers repeat over time ie we are near bottom for mining.

Now lots of companies are hurting mostly because they purchased gear on loaned money.

All my numbers above assume cash purchase for an s19xp and that it is going into a prebuilt setup at plug n play cost.

So a 4 cent mine that borrowed to pay the units and borrowed to build a mine does not really do

04 "       "         $3.20 cost so profit is 6.61 pays off in  832 days per machine

The building could be leased and cost 1 dollar a day per unit  and in the loans and salaries and maybe they clear 6.61- 1.61 = 5 a day which means 5500/5=1100 to break even on the s19 pro

[kano]

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator ...

Latest Block:   760832  (11 minutes ago)

Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.6394% and -0.4081%

Well at least that shows the (regular) fact that their ranges are randomly displayed rubbish.
It's currently at +0.12% ... I guess it will be changing back down (in the next 3 days) coz they say it will

[philipma1957]

we slide back to negative.

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

Latest Block:   761760  (16 minutes ago)


Current Pace:   99.5784%  (1729 / 1736.32 expected, 7.32 behind)


Previous Difficulty:   35610794164371.65                            
Current Difficulty:   36835682546787.98                            
Next Difficulty:   between 36687685576074 and 36690673176567
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.4018% and -0.3937%
Previous Retarget:   October 23, 2022 at 7:48 PM  (+3.4397%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Sunday at 8:11 PM  (in 2d 0h 0m 25s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Sunday at 8:13 PM  (in 2d 0h 2m 9s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 1h 23m 37s and 14d 1h 25m 20s

7 off pace with 267 blocks to go.

Almost zero

https://www.bitrawr.com/difficulty-estimator

...

Latest Block:   761988  (12 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   100.0456%  (1957 / 1956.11 expected, 0.89 ahead)

Previous Difficulty:   35610794164371.65                           
Current Difficulty:   36835682546787.98                           
Next Difficulty:   between 36858971848591 and 36858991825409
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.0632% and +0.0633%
Previous Retarget:   October 23, 2022 at 7:48 PM  (+3.4397%)
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 6:38 PM  (in 0d 9h 49m 43s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 6:38 PM  (in 0d 9h 49m 44s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 23h 50m 48s and 13d 23h 50m 48s





...

may 8-11 hours to go and really close to 0%

[mikeywith]

Ok it was not exactyl zero but close enough, a 0.19% drop which i would not complain about as long as it is not a possitive adjusment.

As explained in my previous post, current hashrate is hardly sustianble with the current bitcoin price, i know diff can do things out of the ordiniary but as it grows larger it won't be able to do much of that nonsence.

Based on that assumption and a few others, I believe now is a good time for stacking mining gears.

[philipma1957]

Ok it was not exactyl zero but close enough, a 0.19% drop which i would not complain about as long as it is not a possitive adjusment.

As explained in my previous post, current hashrate is hardly sustianble with the current bitcoin price, i know diff can do things out of the ordiniary but as it grows larger it won't be able to do much of that nonsence.

Based on that assumption and a few others, I believe now is a good time for stacking mining gears.

We will be converting mine to liquid cooling.

we are heat and spaced capped

we are looking at this company



https://cryptocooling.eu/

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fsRBC8Wn_sA&t=1s

[mikeywith]

We will be converting mine to liquid cooling.

we are heat and spaced capped

we are looking at this company

I was never able to understand the economical logic behind using liquid cooling in mining, it's cool and all, but the cost is extremely high, if noise isn't an issue for you, why not just add more fans to the wall? or replace the ones you have with some strong fans like this or this

I would like to hear more about why can't you improve your air cooling.?

[philipma1957]

We will be converting mine to liquid cooling.

we are heat and spaced capped

we are looking at this company

I was never able to understand the economical logic behind using liquid cooling in mining, it's cool and all, but the cost is extremely high, if noise isn't an issue for you, why not just add more fans to the wall? or replace the ones you have with some strong fans like this or this

I would like to hear more about why can't you improve your air cooling.?

in the first room which has lots of power it is a long rectangle
say 9 by 25ft

one long wall is not cutable.
one short wall has 9000 cfm input and the entrance door. no space to add input.

second long wall has 10000cfm input air.

the second short wall has 19000 cfm exit air

so 19k in and 19k out

the fans of the mining gear do 18900 cfm.

pretty balanced.

what can we do to do more air in we can add about 8800cfm of air

and more air out about 8800 cfm this is around 16 s19 at 3k watts each say 48 kwatts.

add the 100kwatt we are at we max at 148 kwatts.

we have over 225 kwatt to use so we waste 75 kwatts.

if we get 3 120kwatt max racks with liquid we can do 70-80 kwatts a unit gets us to 210-240 kwatts.

[Saskfarmer]

I just find the maintenance on air cooled isn't acceptable.   Seems like no matter how we air filter they fill up with crap, fans wear out or just plain struggle to maintain temperature when its +30+

We're updating the farm infrastructure and aiming at one bulk lot of the S19XP hydro miners.  From that standpoint I hope bitcoin stays in the dump for a while yet.

[philipma1957]

I just find the maintenance on air cooled isn't acceptable.   Seems like no matter how we air filter they fill up with crap, fans wear out or just plain struggle to maintain temperature when its +30+

We're updating the farm infrastructure and aiming at one bulk lot of the S19XP hydro miners.  From that standpoint I hope bitcoin stays in the dump for a while yet.

cleaning gear would be easier. as it simply would not see any dirt.

and yeah we do a ton of filter work. every 30 days pull them and wash them and put the spare ones in. then a month later same thing.

also at 90f to 102f ambient temps all the gear struggles. That is around 40 of 60 days in the summer.

We think we can max the space with 3 of these. use all the power and cool all the gear.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dSNzomzSgCQ&t=1s


Back to topic.

big fight ftx vs binance.

and btc is down to 18.2k

on viabtc 1 th earns 6.35 cents

so an xp doing 141 th earns that is $8.95
it burns 75 k-watts

11 cents  $8.25
10 cents  $7.50
09 cents  $6.75
08 cents  $6.00
07 cents  $5.25
06 cents  $4.50
05 cents  $3.75
04 cents  $3.00
03 cents  $2.25
02 cents  $1.50

so if you have a lot of 141 134 or 127 th xp's at 21.5 watts a th you are good to go at current numbers.

This looks like a real squeeze play forcing everyone to buy :

21.5
25.0 or maybe 29.5 watt miners.