Why putin choose winter?

[Gyfts]

It's not only the fuel considerations, though I am surprised to learn that Russia supplies that much fuel, it's also the fact that Ukraine is close to joining NATO the US has failed leadership that will not do anything in the event of an invasion. Seeing the US's botched withdrawal in Afghanistan gives Putin the leeway for an invasion.

[stompix]

I still say Putin will try to outlast the united states and EU and pray that their economies crash, will russia's remains relatively stable. This could cripple europe and america's ability to react to any move that russia makes.

The moment the EU crashes a market of 1/3 of their GDP in exports is gone.
This is the same thing for China, China doesn't want the US economy to go down, just imagine if the US can't afford to import and consume all that stuff that comes from China, what are millions of Chinese going to do for work?

Putin needs to flex his muscles to show the people in the country something because he has nothing!
A country with vast resources and a minimum wage of 180$, on pair with the poorest region of China, lower than Mexic, Brazil, or even Albania, and before anyone brings the PPP into the discussion, a BTC is worth $37k both in the US and in Zimbabwe, hiding behind PPP means acknowledging you're living on bread and water. He simply has nothing to show poeple, not wealth, not healthcare, not infrastructure, he can only play the nationalist and patriotism cards, and for that, he needs the "glory" of the USSR if not economically at least military, just like a hooligan with a baseball bat, he doesn't care about his own problems but must impose his views on his neighbors and frighten them every single day.

I think this is the same reason Russia needs Ukraine too. Ukraine has many important military infrastructures due to its being part of the former soviet union. Russia just wants to make sure those can not get in the hands of the USA or their Allies nations.

30 years old infrastructure and of no outstanding strategic importance for the western allies since they already have Poland and the Baltic countries which are actually closer to Moscow than all of Ukraine less 10% in the northern part.

The reason is pretty simple.
Russia doesn't want Ukraine to get into the western influence zone because if Ukraine gets a boost to its economy and surpass that of Russia per capita poeple will start questioning themselves why are they still against the EU and also seek a change of how the country is run.
He fears the power of an example, just when you want to make a comparison between communism and capitalism you look at South and North Korea, Putin doesn't want Russia and Ukraine to be used as such examples where he is part of how not to do it.

[Darker45]

I guess the winter has nothing to do with this. This standoff has been going on for years, all seasons long. Even before the annexation of Russia of the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine, the conflict between the two countries was already there. It wasn't as worse as now but it was already present. It mattered a lot that the leadership of Ukraine changed from pro-Russia to pro-Europe. But even prior to that, the two countries already have their history.

But still I don't think there will be an invasion anytime soon, not within the winter at least, if at all. But things will depend on how negotiations will develop. I am still hopeful that despite the military buildup there won't be any war, though.

Actually, I am talking about Putin's tactical move on the Ukraine border. The tension was there for a long time but Putin didn't act on summer. Why he is taking action this winter? Because he knew EU doesn't have enough structure to import enough gas from other countries in a short time. So they must be dependent on Russias gas supply for this winter. If Putin has done this in the summer, then there won't be any problem for the EU because they would build infrastructure to import gas from other sources. Putin has done this so that the EU can not take any action to save their people from freezing to death.

If the EU doesn't want any conflict, they must agree upon any decision that favors Russia. This could be a secret deal or ukarin agree on not joining NATO. If anything happens will be on this winter for sure. Either Putin will occupy Ukrain or he will put a pro-Russian Govt or war.

I'm not sure where you got this sort of a theory. I haven't been closely monitoring this news lately either. So I cannot tell whether the winter has indeed this vital role to play in the massive troop buildup in the border. However, the winter will be done by March, right? The negotiations, especially because it involves the very delicate matter of regional security and stability, would probably take more than half a year.

Of course, going into the negotiation table during this particular season gives Russia an additional leverage. However, I doubt it will become the pivot point so to speak. I don't even think the development thus far would force Ukraine to cease participating in various NATO programs and deals.

[laredo7mm]

I still say Putin will try to outlast the united states and EU and pray that their economies crash, will russia's remains relatively stable. This could cripple europe and america's ability to react to any move that russia makes.

The moment the EU crashes a market of 1/3 of their GDP in exports is gone.
This is the same thing for China, China doesn't want the US economy to go down, just imagine if the US can't afford to import and consume all that stuff that comes from China, what are millions of Chinese going to do for work?

More than 47% of Chinese goods by value are exported to its neighbor country in the Asian region. 20% to North America and the other 20% in the EU means the USA can not single handily crash chinas economy if they made any sanction to china. The USA is the biggest importer of china but they are not the only one so there is no way the USA can stop chinas economical growth. Also, the USA can not replace China as one of the biggest exporters of the world because of China's cheap labor and manpower it could generate.

Putin needs to flex his muscles to show the people in the country something because he has nothing!
A country with vast resources and a minimum wage of 180$, on pair with the poorest region of China, lower than Mexic, Brazil, or even Albania, and before anyone brings the PPP into the discussion, a BTC is worth $37k both in the US and in Zimbabwe, hiding behind PPP means acknowledging you're living on bread and water. He simply has nothing to show poeple, not wealth, not healthcare, not infrastructure, he can only play the nationalist and patriotism cards, and for that, he needs the "glory" of the USSR if not economically at least military, just like a hooligan with a baseball bat, he doesn't care about his own problems but must impose his views on his neighbors and frighten them every single day.

What you are saying is true but we have to understand Putin has one of the largest militaries in the world and this gangster leader could cause serious destruction to the EU and to his own people. This power show-off could escalate a full-scale war at any time.

[ChiBitCTy]

This is an interesting concept and maybe there’s some truth to it, but I’m not sure this is the case. I mean hasn’t this been an issue for some time and haven’t they already moved some there troops on the Ukraine border already (I could be wrong here). I just hope this is as far as things go, we don’t need WWIII.

[usekevin]

This is an interesting concept and maybe there’s some truth to it, but I’m not sure this is the case. I mean hasn’t this been an issue for some time and haven’t they already moved some there troops on the Ukraine border already (I could be wrong here). I just hope this is as far as things go, we don’t need WWIII.

Ukrainian politics was happened many times.In a past Russia made a friendly relationship with the Ukraine. By the move of USSR, later they do of partition.Russia support the lot in the past. But after the interfere of the United State, Ukraine had this move.But it's not a correct one. Russian are the brother to the Ukraine. They should do friendly relationship with Russia.

[coolcoinz]

Putin chose winter because he knows the woke pussies who want war with the Russians will freeze to death...

And we all know the average Russian doesn't need gas to keep warm. Vodka does that from the inside.

If Putin cuts off gas supplies, Europeans will freeze to death and there will be lots of rebellion and shit.

Not really.

Firstly, natural gas is not the only resource used to heat our homes. Apart from growing use of solar energy, people use coal, wood, oil...

Secondly, only 40% of natural gas comes from Russia. Norway alone supplies over 20% and many countries have their own sources of gas that are not shown on the supply chart because it's not exported to other countries, but used locally. It's not like the EU would collapse if Russia cut gas. We'd have to import more from Algeria, Qatar and Nigeria, which we've been doing for years. The downside is gas imported from Africa can be more expensive than the one from Russia, but it's not such a big deal.

You can look at it like this: When you like wine and the prices go up you either switch to beer or pay more. You don't die of thirst. Russia on the other hand has high inflation. If they stop selling gas to the EU they'll have an even greater one.

[cabron]

I still say Putin will try to outlast the united states and EU and pray that their economies crash, will russia's remains relatively stable. This could cripple europe and america's ability to react to any move that russia makes.

The moment the EU crashes a market of 1/3 of their GDP in exports is gone.
This is the same thing for China, China doesn't want the US economy to go down, just imagine if the US can't afford to import and consume all that stuff that comes from China, what are millions of Chinese going to do for work?

More than 47% of Chinese goods by value are exported to its neighbor country in the Asian region. 20% to North America and the other 20% in the EU means the USA can not single handily crash chinas economy if they made any sanction to china. The USA is the biggest importer of china but they are not the only one so there is no way the USA can stop chinas economical growth. Also, the USA can not replace China as one of the biggest exporters of the world because of China's cheap labor and manpower it could generate.

Putin needs to flex his muscles to show the people in the country something because he has nothing!
A country with vast resources and a minimum wage of 180$, on pair with the poorest region of China, lower than Mexic, Brazil, or even Albania, and before anyone brings the PPP into the discussion, a BTC is worth $37k both in the US and in Zimbabwe, hiding behind PPP means acknowledging you're living on bread and water. He simply has nothing to show poeple, not wealth, not healthcare, not infrastructure, he can only play the nationalist and patriotism cards, and for that, he needs the "glory" of the USSR if not economically at least military, just like a hooligan with a baseball bat, he doesn't care about his own problems but must impose his views on his neighbors and frighten them every single day.

What you are saying is true but we have to understand Putin has one of the largest militaries in the world and this gangster leader could cause serious destruction to the EU and to his own people. This power show-off could escalate a full-scale war at any time.

Ukraine is just in thier backyard, no muscles needed to flex there. Just look at the news today about all the Ukraine tension that US media had been making, its funny now that countries surrounding Ukraine are not allowing US troops to move in. Belarus, Croatia and all the rest just wouldn't want them there.

It would have been easy for the administration to restage that Cuban missile crisis if Biden's brain is not too demented. No one calls it fake news but if it were Trump doing all these, the term FakeNews would have been around million times after CNN deleted the news about Biden saying the imminent Ukraine invasion.

If anyone is flexing their muscles it's the US military going very far from their backyard to ignite a war. Choosing winter because China is so busy with thier winter Olympics. But they have thier problems of thier own now as thier F-35C plane crashes in the backyard of China.

[TwitchySeal]

It's easier to move military equipment when the ground is frozen.  That area gets super muddy in April/May and this happens:

US has failed leadership that will not do anything in the event of an invasion

The failed leadership was defeated in the last election.  And the problem wasn't them doing nothing, it was them turning our allies against us with obvious pro-Russia stances.  

Current leadership has already made it clear that if Putin goes into Ukraine the sanctions start approaching Cuba embargo level of intensity.  

[mindrust]

Putin chose winter because he knows the woke pussies who want war with the Russians will freeze to death...

And we all know the average Russian doesn't need gas to keep warm. Vodka does that from the inside.

If Putin cuts off gas supplies, Europeans will freeze to death and there will be lots of rebellion and shit.

Not really.

Firstly, natural gas is not the only resource used to heat our homes. Apart from growing use of solar energy, people use coal, wood, oil...

If you believe in that green energy crap then I have bad news for you, it is not going to save EU. Let's see the numbers:

Europe's ~40% of natural gas, ~46% of solid fuels,  ~27% of crude oil is coming from Russia.
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/infographs/energy/bloc-2c.html#carouselControls?lang=en







These numbers tell only one story:

Putin pwns Europe.

[coolcoinz]

If you believe in that green energy crap then I have bad news for you, it is not going to save EU. Let's see the numbers:

You don't have to believe in green energy to see that we depend less on natural gas and coal and more on electricity. It doesn't have to be green, it can be nuclear. Anyway, the use of solar energy is growing every year as are imports from other countries. 2019-2020 EU cut gas imports from Russia by 5%. Governments see that Russia is unreliable and are looking for alternatives. Putin is running out of time.

[laredo7mm]

If you believe in that green energy crap then I have bad news for you, it is not going to save EU. Let's see the numbers:

You don't have to believe in green energy to see that we depend less on natural gas and coal and more on electricity. It doesn't have to be green, it can be nuclear. Anyway, the use of solar energy is growing every year as are imports from other countries. 2019-2020 EU cut gas imports from Russia by 5%. Governments see that Russia is unreliable and are looking for alternatives. Putin is running out of time.

Qatar is in talk with the EU to supply natural gas if Russia cut their gas supply. Source link.

I think this is a good alternative to the neutral Russian threat but the problem does the EU has enough infrastructure to import natural gas from a country that is located far away. This will also increase the cost of natural gas which is already skyrocketing in Europe. Qatar could be a good alternative to the natural gas supplier in the EU but this can not be done on short notice.

[lumbanrang]

Too much logic that doesn't make sense here. Tensions between Russia and Ukraine itself have been going on for a long time, what has caused the conflict to widen is the recent closeness of Ukraine to the western bloc, which makes Russia dislike it.

And 40% of Europe's gas demand comes from Russia. And now if Russia cuts off gas supplies, the economies of European countries will come to a standstill. One power plant after another, the factory will be closed. So the big countries of Europe will think twice before taking a tough stand against Russia.

And when it comes to gas and oil supplies, Europe relies 35% of natural gas on Russia. However, if we look at the situation, even if there is a war and gas supply cuts, Europe can divert their supply to several neighbouring countries (https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/what-are-europes-options-case-russian-gas-disruption-2022-01-27/) although there will be many problems during the transition process, I am sure it will not take long and that the party that will suffer the most is Russia itself because they will lose quite a lot of revenue from gas sales.

[cabron]

Too much logic that doesn't make sense here. Tensions between Russia and Ukraine itself have been going on for a long time, what has caused the conflict to widen is the recent closeness of Ukraine to the western bloc, which makes Russia dislike it.

And 40% of Europe's gas demand comes from Russia. And now if Russia cuts off gas supplies, the economies of European countries will come to a standstill. One power plant after another, the factory will be closed. So the big countries of Europe will think twice before taking a tough stand against Russia.

And when it comes to gas and oil supplies, Europe relies 35% of natural gas on Russia. However, if we look at the situation, even if there is a war and gas supply cuts, Europe can divert their supply to several neighbouring countries (https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/what-are-europes-options-case-russian-gas-disruption-2022-01-27/) although there will be many problems during the transition process, I am sure it will not take long and that the party that will suffer the most is Russia itself because they will lose quite a lot of revenue from gas sales.

Was this the reson why Biden is shopping for gas/petroleum in Qatar?  The poor man is too old for this.

https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/biden-meets-with-emir-of-qatar-as-u-s-aims-to-allay-european-concern-about-natural-gas-supply-amid-elevated-russia-tension-01643660960

In the case war will really happen, they have something to give to EU to survive the winter. I dont know if any of the middle east countries will provide actually.  

[lumbanrang]

Too much logic that doesn't make sense here. Tensions between Russia and Ukraine itself have been going on for a long time, what has caused the conflict to widen is the recent closeness of Ukraine to the western bloc, which makes Russia dislike it.

And 40% of Europe's gas demand comes from Russia. And now if Russia cuts off gas supplies, the economies of European countries will come to a standstill. One power plant after another, the factory will be closed. So the big countries of Europe will think twice before taking a tough stand against Russia.

And when it comes to gas and oil supplies, Europe relies 35% of natural gas on Russia. However, if we look at the situation, even if there is a war and gas supply cuts, Europe can divert their supply to several neighbouring countries (https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/what-are-europes-options-case-russian-gas-disruption-2022-01-27/) although there will be many problems during the transition process, I am sure it will not take long and that the party that will suffer the most is Russia itself because they will lose quite a lot of revenue from gas sales.

Was this the reson why Biden is shopping for gas/petroleum in Qatar?  The poor man is too old for this.

https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/biden-meets-with-emir-of-qatar-as-u-s-aims-to-allay-european-concern-about-natural-gas-supply-amid-elevated-russia-tension-01643660960

In the case war will really happen, they have something to give to EU to survive the winter. I dont know if any of the middle east countries will provide actually.  

Even though Biden is old enough for this, he is still a president for America and a controller of NATO. Indirectly he should be responsible if something happens to the EU, such as cutting gas supply or at worst an invasion of one of the EU countries (which is unlikely to happen).

Qatar has also stated that they will supply gas and oil to the EU through their storage in East Asia. And in return they asked to end the European Commission anti-trust investigation and asked their gas and oil market to return to Europe (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/26/qatar-in-talks-to-supply-gas-to-europe-if-russia-cuts-supplies). So Qatar also doesn't help the EU for free.

[DrBeer]

Too much logic that doesn't make sense here. Tensions between Russia and Ukraine itself have been going on for a long time, what has caused the conflict to widen is the recent closeness of Ukraine to the western bloc, which makes Russia dislike it.

And 40% of Europe's gas demand comes from Russia. And now if Russia cuts off gas supplies, the economies of European countries will come to a standstill. One power plant after another, the factory will be closed. So the big countries of Europe will think twice before taking a tough stand against Russia.

And when it comes to gas and oil supplies, Europe relies 35% of natural gas on Russia. However, if we look at the situation, even if there is a war and gas supply cuts, Europe can divert their supply to several neighbouring countries (https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/what-are-europes-options-case-russian-gas-disruption-2022-01-27/) although there will be many problems during the transition process, I am sure it will not take long and that the party that will suffer the most is Russia itself because they will lose quite a lot of revenue from gas sales.

Was this the reson why Biden is shopping for gas/petroleum in Qatar?  The poor man is too old for this.

https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/biden-meets-with-emir-of-qatar-as-u-s-aims-to-allay-european-concern-about-natural-gas-supply-amid-elevated-russia-tension-01643660960

In the case war will really happen, they have something to give to EU to survive the winter. I dont know if any of the middle east countries will provide actually.  

Even though Biden is old enough for this, he is still a president for America and a controller of NATO. Indirectly he should be responsible if something happens to the EU, such as cutting gas supply or at worst an invasion of one of the EU countries (which is unlikely to happen).

Qatar has also stated that they will supply gas and oil to the EU through their storage in East Asia. And in return they asked to end the European Commission anti-trust investigation and asked their gas and oil market to return to Europe (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/26/qatar-in-talks-to-supply-gas-to-europe-if-russia-cuts-supplies). So Qatar also doesn't help the EU for free.

I would like to hope that logic and conscience will prevail in Europe. Conscience - to stop being, some politicians, kept women of the Kremlin. Logic - after an act of economic / energy terrorism by Russia, only an idiot can not understand that Russian gas is a means of blackmailing and feeding tame prostitute politicians who sell their countries in exchange for handouts from Kremlin terrorists. Energy security can only be realized through the diversification of supplies. Russia needs to monopolize the market, and economic goals, judging by the actions of the Kremlin, are no longer the main goal. The main goal is to control the behavior of the leading European countries, when making pro-Russian decisions, or to sabotage anti-Russian measures.

[Gyfts]

...

I guess that explains why no one wants to get involved, huh.

Also explains why the US wouldn't mind a war, it isn't their oil on the line. They stopped giving a damn about the economy a long time ago, so that's an issue to put aside.

There was a report that alleges Russia is planning a hoax propaganda video to use as a pretext for an invasion. Video shows Ukraine pre-emptively striking Russia, but of course it is all crisis actors. This comes from the US government, so I'm immediately reminded that they assured the world that Iraq had WMD's. Turns out that was just a lie. Wonder if this report is a lie too.

[DrBeer]

...

I guess that explains why no one wants to get involved, huh.

Also explains why the US wouldn't mind a war, it isn't their oil on the line. They stopped giving a damn about the economy a long time ago, so that's an issue to put aside.

There was a report that alleges Russia is planning a hoax propaganda video to use as a pretext for an invasion. Video shows Ukraine pre-emptively striking Russia, but of course it is all crisis actors. This comes from the US government, so I'm immediately reminded that they assured the world that Iraq had WMD's. Turns out that was just a lie. Wonder if this report is a lie too.

If you study history, then a similar mechanism, the mechanism of fake provocations, has been used by Russia since the beginning of World War II. It was used as an excuse to start aggression. For example, "The Attack of the Finnish Republic on the USSR" - read, think, compare the situations. Everything is absolutely identical, for decades, nothing has changed in the terrorist state. same principles, same explanations, same formulations...

[Gyfts]

...

I'm not suggesting Russia is above a fake provocation attack, they're quite embolden to attack Ukraine under the belief that the U.S. or other NATO countries will respond.

But will the US escalate because they want an excuse to start war, is the question. I see no motive, so my guess is no.

Though recall to 2003 when the U.S. promised the world a war in Iraq was justified due to WMD. There were none, and they lied. So I don't believe Russia is operating with good intention, nor does the U.S. have a good track record telling the truth in these matters.

[DrBeer]

...

I'm not suggesting Russia is above a fake provocation attack, they're quite embolden to attack Ukraine under the belief that the U.S. or other NATO countries will respond.

But will the US escalate because they want an excuse to start war, is the question. I see no motive, so my guess is no.

Though recall to 2003 when the U.S. promised the world a war in Iraq was justified due to WMD. There were none, and they lied. So I don't believe Russia is operating with good intention, nor does the U.S. have a good track record telling the truth in these matters.

As I understand it, you did not dare to read the story about the crimes of the USSR / Russia, including provocations. Ok, it's up to you
And here Iraq And the USA? Although ... But Pol-Pota destroyed the local population, and scientists ... And if you were wearing glasses! And this very accurately confirms that Russia wants to capture the whole of Europe and raise the price of round timber! I followed your logic, answering your question, tell me - does it really look stupid?
Russia can be "brave" ONLY if they are 100,000% sure that their target will not be able to resist. Those. they need an object of aggression that can be safely and safely destroyed, knowing that there will be no answer. In 2014, such a situation was in Ukraine. BUT ! We managed to very quickly assemble volunteer defense units, and managed to drive out the invaders, and free almost 50% of the temporarily occupied territories!
That is why now there is a wild hysteria in Russia - they are very afraid that defensive weapons have arrived in Ukraine, which is guaranteed not to allow the rashist army to walk in a parade march across the territory of Ukraine. Now they know that tank divisions will be destroyed wherever they appear, aviation also becomes vulnerable after the supply of MANPADS systems. Therefore, the Kremlin is hysterical, and does not know what to do now.