Death of Etheruem mining - Predicitions

[FP91G]

If you are not selling ethereum, but pay the costs with stablecoins when you sold ethereum for more than $4,000, then this is a better situation for miners who already have working mining farms. Beginners do not buy video cards and miners with expensive electricity are turned off. This will allow the old miner to get some coins before the end of mining.

[1714854978]

1714854978

[1714854978]

1714854978

[cudapop]

Core dev call just wrapped up:

1) 7th mainnet shadow fork done Wed, some non-merge issues with Erigon/Besu clients, fixes being put into place, 8th mainnet shadow fork set for two weeks from now.
2) Sepolia beacon chain live, TTD/merge targeted for Jul 6.
3) Mainnet difficulty bomb delay fork (gray glacier) still targeted for Jun 29.

[FP91G]

Ethereum (ETH) co-founder Vitalik Buterin has said he is "definitely" worried about centralization risks following The Merge, the event when the current Ethereum Mainnet merges with the beacon chain proof-of-stake (PoS) system.

The Ethereum mastermind noted that Lido Finance, the largest provider of staking services for Ethereum, where around a third of staked ETH (stETH) has been deposited, could theoretically disturb the Ethereum network post-Merge.

https://cryptonews.com/news/vitalik-buterin-confirms-post-merge-ethereum-centralization-concerns-urges-not-to-overly-catastrophize-it.htm

[Coinfarm ventures]

The Ethereum mastermind noted that Lido Finance, the largest provider of staking services for Ethereum, where around a third of staked ETH (stETH) has been deposited, could theoretically disturb the Ethereum network post-Merge.

The counterargument from the PoS folks will be:

• Mining pools can launch 51% attacks
• Miners who launch a failed 51% attack will only lose a few hours/days of hashrate while they keep all their equipment. But rogue PoS attackers risk losing all their staked coins

I'm wondering if anybody here has a good rebuttal to their claims.

Core dev call just wrapped up:

As always, we appreciate your boots-on-the-ground updates

[philipma1957]

The Ethereum mastermind noted that Lido Finance, the largest provider of staking services for Ethereum, where around a third of staked ETH (stETH) has been deposited, could theoretically disturb the Ethereum network post-Merge.

The counterargument from the PoS folks will be:

• Mining pools can launch 51% attacks
• Miners who launch a failed 51% attack will only lose a few hours/days of hashrate while they keep all their equipment. But rogue PoS attackers risk losing all their staked coins

I'm wondering if anybody here has a good rebuttal to their claims.

Core dev call just wrapped up:

As always, we appreciate your boots-on-the-ground updates

mmm so mr v says he is concerned that pos will have a possible issue due to Lido Finance holding 33% of the staked coins.

I see trouble 😈 just around the corner.

Good luck mr v. with keeping Lido on the lease once POS give them leverage.

[Coinfarm ventures]

mmm so mr v says he is concerned that pos will have a possible issue due to Lido Finance holding 33% of the staked coins.

Could it be an excuse for Vitalik to delay PoS yet again? They could claim they're "working on a new algorithm to decentralize staking pools"

[adaseb]

StETH is still trading at a discount. Basically it’s around $1170 while ETH is around $1212. Basically stETH will equal exactly ETH however it’s only post merge and somewhere like 6 months ago.

So you could basically buy stETH open a short on ETH and wait like 9 months and get like 4-5% gain. Basically not really worth the risk actually.

Either way, unlike UST it didn’t depeg too much. But if it were to go to 80% of ETH then perhaps It’s worth buying if you want to hold ETH long term.

[a1 Hashrate LLC2022]

mmm so mr v says he is concerned that pos will have a possible issue due to Lido Finance holding 33% of the staked coins.

Could it be an excuse for Vitalik to delay PoS yet again? They could claim they're "working on a new algorithm to decentralize staking pools"

well if you read the thread by sp_

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5402672.0


mr v may be sweating it a bit.


mr v still owes me 2 eth and an apology which I know will never happen.


sp_ has some compelling arguements in his thread


and the idea that 1 group with only 4% of all the eth is the driving force for pos is a damn good reason to not do pos.

[cudapop]

Core devs call wrapped up:

1) Mainnet shadow fork #9 scheduled for next week
2) Sepolia testnet TTD/merge completed
3) Goerli testnet TTD value to be decided on in consensus layer call next week or core dev call the week after

[FP91G]

Core devs call wrapped up:

1) Mainnet shadow fork #9 scheduled for next week
2) Sepolia testnet TTD/merge completed
3) Goerli testnet TTD value to be decided on in consensus layer call next week or core dev call the week after

I thought that the next testnet would be in Goerli testnet.
What is Mainnet shadow fork #9? how many more will there be before the end of ethereum mining?
If there are several more of these Mainnet shadow forks, then the developers may not be in time until the 4th quarter.

[adaseb]

Don’t know if you guys heard but around the same time that merge takes place it’s when the MtGox coins are going to be finally distributed.

Seems the second half of August will have crazy volatility with all these potential coins being dumped on the market. Wonder how bearish everybody will get as we approach closer and closer to the merge and MtGox drop.

[cudapop]

Core devs call wrapped up:

1) Mainnet shadow fork #9 scheduled for next week
2) Sepolia testnet TTD/merge completed
3) Goerli testnet TTD value to be decided on in consensus layer call next week or core dev call the week after

I thought that the next testnet would be in Goerli testnet.
What is Mainnet shadow fork #9? how many more will there be before the end of ethereum mining?
If there are several more of these Mainnet shadow forks, then the developers may not be in time until the 4th quarter.

Goerli is the next (and final) testnet to be merged (#3 item). Sepolia was merged this week (#2 item).

Pari is the developer working on the weekly mainnet shadow forks, the other devs work on other merge (and post-merge) items. Pari has not mentioned if he will be discontinuing the shadow forks.

[swogerino]

Don’t know if you guys heard but around the same time that merge takes place it’s when the MtGox coins are going to be finally distributed.

Seems the second half of August will have crazy volatility with all these potential coins being dumped on the market. Wonder how bearish everybody will get as we approach closer and closer to the merge and MtGox drop.

That together with the Vitalik concern of Lido Finance I am sure it will bring huge volatility to the market.Of course if we have PoS in the first place in August which no matter how many testnets they are doing I highly doubt we will see anytime soon the moving of Ethereum to PoS.I think that Vitalik can really use this Lido Finance which has like 33% of staked Eth as an excuse to not move on with the PoS for up to early 2023 as a bare minimum which I think it will be highly likely that it will happen this way.

MtGox that is ancient scam,I don't know but if the coin will be distributed to their rightful respective owners then this is great news.

[philipma1957]

Don’t know if you guys heard but around the same time that merge takes place it’s when the MtGox coins are going to be finally distributed.

Seems the second half of August will have crazy volatility with all these potential coins being dumped on the market. Wonder how bearish everybody will get as we approach closer and closer to the merge and MtGox drop.

That together with the Vitalik concern of Lido Finance I am sure it will bring huge volatility to the market.Of course if we have PoS in the first place in August which no matter how many testnets they are doing I highly doubt we will see anytime soon the moving of Ethereum to PoS.I think that Vitalik can really use this Lido Finance which has like 33% of staked Eth as an excuse to not move on with the PoS for up to early 2023 as a bare minimum which I think it will be highly likely that it will happen this way.

MtGox that is ancient scam,I don't know but if the coin will be distributed to their rightful respective owners then this is great news.

Last time I checked

about 122 mill coins

including the 2 coins of mine that got lost when the etc/eth rollback fork occured.

60 million pre mined and sold for about 13.8 mill dollars.
12 million developers took for them selves
72 million coins

and 50 million actually mined.

total of 122 million coins of which 15 million are staked
5 million by one company Lido Finance.

so at best all 15 million staked coins were from the premine.

thus there would be 45 million premined coins that one or two people may have control of.

so those 45 million coins could easily take control of the staking.

even if the developers add in the 12 million they kept.

as 45 is greater than 15+12=27

so the reality is pos is a disaster at this moment if it starts up it must fail.

I contend that for a viable pos to start far far far more coins must be staked.

since so many premined dirt cheap coins are not staked.

math does not lie here.  mr v b do the right thing stop this suicidal pos march.

it is underfunded and totally vulnerable to an attack by at least 45 million unstaked premined coins
this is as easy as

45> 15+12

that is the best case for staked numbers

reality is

107>15 is worst case number for staked coins

either way the staked amount is very easily overcome since it is about 15 million coins.

[bitquad]

Don’t know if you guys heard but around the same time that merge takes place it’s when the MtGox coins are going to be finally distributed.

Seems the second half of August will have crazy volatility with all these potential coins being dumped on the market. Wonder how bearish everybody will get as we approach closer and closer to the merge and MtGox drop.

That together with the Vitalik concern of Lido Finance I am sure it will bring huge volatility to the market.Of course if we have PoS in the first place in August which no matter how many testnets they are doing I highly doubt we will see anytime soon the moving of Ethereum to PoS.I think that Vitalik can really use this Lido Finance which has like 33% of staked Eth as an excuse to not move on with the PoS for up to early 2023 as a bare minimum which I think it will be highly likely that it will happen this way.

MtGox that is ancient scam,I don't know but if the coin will be distributed to their rightful respective owners then this is great news.

Last time I checked

about 122 mill coins

including the 2 coins of mine that got lost when the etc/eth rollback fork occured.

60 million pre mined and sold for about 13.8 mill dollars.
12 million developers took for them selves
72 million coins

and 50 million actually mined.

total of 122 million coins of which 15 million are staked
5 million by one company Lido Finance.

so at best all 15 million staked coins were from the premine.

thus there would be 45 million premined coins that one or two people may have control of.

so those 45 million coins could easily take control of the staking.

even if the developers add in the 12 million they kept.

as 45 is greater than 15+12=27

so the reality is pos is a disaster at this moment if it starts up it must fail.

I contend that for a viable pos to start far far far more coins must be staked.

since so many premined dirt cheap coins are not staked.

math does not lie here.  mr v b do the right thing stop this suicidal pos march.

it is underfunded and totally vulnerable to an attack by at least 45 million unstaked premined coins
this is as easy as

45> 15+12

that is the best case for staked numbers

reality is

107>15 is worst case number for staked coins

either way the staked amount is very easily overcome since it is about 15 million coins.

You think an attacker is going to risk losing 15 million ETH? Only for the attack to be undone? Even at $1000 ETH that's $15 billion being risked on an attack that can be rolled back.

[philipma1957]

Don’t know if you guys heard but around the same time that merge takes place it’s when the MtGox coins are going to be finally distributed.

Seems the second half of August will have crazy volatility with all these potential coins being dumped on the market. Wonder how bearish everybody will get as we approach closer and closer to the merge and MtGox drop.

That together with the Vitalik concern of Lido Finance I am sure it will bring huge volatility to the market.Of course if we have PoS in the first place in August which no matter how many testnets they are doing I highly doubt we will see anytime soon the moving of Ethereum to PoS.I think that Vitalik can really use this Lido Finance which has like 33% of staked Eth as an excuse to not move on with the PoS for up to early 2023 as a bare minimum which I think it will be highly likely that it will happen this way.

MtGox that is ancient scam,I don't know but if the coin will be distributed to their rightful respective owners then this is great news.

Last time I checked

about 122 mill coins

including the 2 coins of mine that got lost when the etc/eth rollback fork occured.

60 million pre mined and sold for about 13.8 mill dollars.
12 million developers took for them selves
72 million coins

and 50 million actually mined.

total of 122 million coins of which 15 million are staked
5 million by one company Lido Finance.

so at best all 15 million staked coins were from the premine.

thus there would be 45 million premined coins that one or two people may have control of.

so those 45 million coins could easily take control of the staking.

even if the developers add in the 12 million they kept.

as 45 is greater than 15+12=27

so the reality is pos is a disaster at this moment if it starts up it must fail.

I contend that for a viable pos to start far far far more coins must be staked.

since so many premined dirt cheap coins are not staked.

math does not lie here.  mr v b do the right thing stop this suicidal pos march.

it is underfunded and totally vulnerable to an attack by at least 45 million unstaked premined coins
this is as easy as

45> 15+12

that is the best case for staked numbers

reality is

107>15 is worst case number for staked coins

either way the staked amount is very easily overcome since it is about 15 million coins.

You think an attacker is going to risk losing 15 million ETH? Only for the attack to be undone? Even at $1000 ETH that's $15 billion being risked on an attack that can be rolled back.

No there were 72 million premined coins.

12 million went to developers

60 million went to investors at a cost of 13.8 million.

there are 122 million coins in total

say 50 million mined

so

60
12
50
122 total

only 15 million are staked

so 107 million are not staked.

my point is those 15 million staked are very small percentage compared to the cheap 72 million premined.

And the premined cost was only 13.8 million for the 72 million coins.

so pos staking spent a ton of highly valued coins to stake and they can be wiped out on the cheap by all the low cost premined coins.

none of us know how many of the premined are controlled by one or two people.

they can cheaply take over the entire staking with ease.

I can tell you that unless far more coins go into pos staking the risk is huge that you can be wiped by the

premined coin owners



edit more deep thought here.

so I am a major player I have 6 million eth all premined investment which would be only 1/10 x 13.8 million = 1.38 million

I find 2 other guys with 6 million eth premised money between us we have 18 million eth which cost us only 1.38 x 3 = 4.14 million

we could crash the entire eth pos setup and only spent 4.14 million back in 2016 to do it now.

how bout we are ready to do exactly that and have placed multiple leveraged shorts on eth  across many exchanges.

as I see current setup looks doable.  worse yet Mr V.B. made noise about Lido as they hold about ⅓ the staked eth say 5 million coins.

so if Lido is sniffing around looking to hook up with 3 holders of 18 million premined coins. they are now up to 23 million coins easily fucking eth up bigly.

How about they are ready to pounce on that and will have billions in 5x 10x  20x 50x leveraged eth shorts all over.

the cost is 23 million coins of which 18 million were only 4.14 mill in 2016 dollars. and maybe worse is that most of lido coins are dirt cheap maybe 20 bucks a coin when purchased so 20 x 5 million = 100 million and 4.14 million is 104.14 million laid out to make billions in leveraged shorts.

Mr V.B. is risking this by going pos with a mere 15 million of 122 million coins and so many premined unaccounted coins.

Mark my words eth to pos will be the most amazing shit storm ever seen.

now is that just good fud? or a deep thought of Clear and present danger of eth's current pos plan?

I TRULY DO NOT KNOW

[cudapop]

Consensus layer call wrapped up:

1) Mainnet shadow fork #9 completed
2) Goerli shadow fork to be performed next week
3) Goerli TTD/merge tentatively targeted for the week of Aug 11
4) Assuming no issues with Goerli merge, Mainnet merge tentatively targeted for either the week of Sep 12 or Sep 19

[safar1980]

Members of the Ethereum community have set their sights on a new date for the blockchain's long-awaited Merge.

Come September 19, the network is expected to merge from its current state as a proof-of-work
(PoW) blockchain to an energy-efficient proof-of-stake (PoS) network.
https://decrypt.co/105177/ethereum-devs-pencil-in-september-date-for-merge

[swogerino]

Members of the Ethereum community have set their sights on a new date for the blockchain's long-awaited Merge.

Come September 19, the network is expected to merge from its current state as a proof-of-work
(PoW) blockchain to an energy-efficient proof-of-stake (PoS) network.
https://decrypt.co/105177/ethereum-devs-pencil-in-september-date-for-merge

If that happens we will mark the September 19 as the starting date of Ethereum deep illness which will inevitably bring death to Ethereum just a couple months after if they truly go to PoS and start the merge at that time.

We as miners should not care much if it goes or not to PoS as we have a lot of other coins who will take over.We remember the days before Ethereum that a lot of other coins were being mined and few people were unhappy about it.Maybe the profitability is the best with Ethereum but even so a new coin will come up to substitute the Ethereum in mining after the death of Ethereum.

Lastly that date has always been delayed since 2016 and also we see a lot of testing now I still believe when we reach near the end of August that date to be postponed again.Better stock up those GPU-s at cheap prices.

[arielbit]

Maybe it is more profitable when ETH becomes POS because those majority who only knew how to mine ETH will leave, and the profits will be shared among hardened shitcoiners hehe