Death of Etheruem mining - Predicitions

[cudapop]

All core dev call has just wrapped up.

Devs have decided to delay the difficulty bomb. Initial block delay adjustment is as published in the proposed EIP-5133 (https://github.com/ethereum/EIPs/blob/master/EIPS/eip-5133.md) but the delay value may be adjusted. Fork to implement the delay is planned to go in effect around Jun 29.

Also, second testnet for merge will be Sepolia, beacon chain for Sepolia will launch around Jun 20 with merge TTD to follow around 2 weeks after.

[1714156022]

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[1714156022]

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[1714156022]

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[1714156022]

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[definevalue]

Ethereum switching to proof of stake will be its biggest mistake, all those whales expecting huge staking rewards will be disappointed on the long run, I still very much believe that the PoW algorithm is what takes Ethereum to this level.

This

[crazydane]

Here's a pretty sobering article:

https://bitproit.com/gpu-mining-profitability-after-ethereum-merge/

[FP91G]

Here's a pretty sobering article:

https://bitproit.com/gpu-mining-profitability-after-ethereum-merge/

Source https://bitproit.com/

This is the best visual picture about Ethereum mining. In Ethereum mining, there are asics with a hashrate from 1 to 4 Gh/s, which will then mine Ethereum classic, and the profit of miners on video cards will quickly end.

[sp_]

This is the best visual picture about Ethereum mining. In Ethereum mining, there are asics with a hashrate from 1 to 4 Gh/s, which will then mine Ethereum classic, and the profit of miners on video cards will quickly end.

This list is incomplete. XMR, VTC, XDN.. etc. There is around 100 gpu minable coins for the gpu. Randomx has been implemented on the gpu to outperform any cpu. The only difference is that 90% of gpu mining will be done with the Team Black Miner.

This chart assume that ethereum is traded at $1900, but after pos, everybody will move to more secure pow blockchains and ethereum can fall as low as $19

[badbart]

This is the best visual picture about Ethereum mining. In Ethereum mining, there are asics with a hashrate from 1 to 4 Gh/s, which will then mine Ethereum classic, and the profit of miners on video cards will quickly end.

This list is incomplete. XMR, VTC, XDN.. etc. There is around 100 gpu minable coins for the gpu. Randomx has been implemented on the gpu to outperform any cpu. The only difference is that 90% of gpu mining will be done with the Team Black Miner.

Decent Randomx Performance on a gpu?  Can you provide a link?

[sp_]

Decent Randomx Performance on a gpu?  Can you provide a link?

Sure

https://github.com/sp-hash/TeamBlackMiner/releases

Just waiting for the end of Ethereum...

[edgycorner]

This chart assume that ethereum is traded at $1900, but after pos, everybody will move to more secure pow blockchains and ethereum can fall as low as $19

and Vitalik Buterin will be plugged into Bezos's butt(AWS) for validation lol

Anyways, GPU mining for profit will be dead for at least a year after the merge. We might shift from direct profit as an incentive to a speculative incentive. GPU owners will gamble on a coin that has the potential to moon. It will be like pre-2017 bitcoin bull run all over again when miners were never in profit, and would hodl instead. Like this farm from 2015 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K8kua5B5K3I

All core dev call has just wrapped up.

Devs have decided to delay the difficulty bomb. Initial block delay adjustment is as published in the proposed EIP-5133 (https://github.com/ethereum/EIPs/blob/master/EIPS/eip-5133.md) but the delay value may be adjusted. Fork to implement the delay is planned to go in effect around Jun 29.

Also, second testnet for merge will be Sepolia, beacon chain for Sepolia will launch around Jun 20 with merge TTD to follow around 2 weeks after.

Thanks for the update.

Odds are pretty much the same since I last checked them. Still a good chance of happening during September.
If ETH crashes below 1000, we will get to test philipma's theory.

[philipma1957]

This chart assume that ethereum is traded at $1900, but after pos, everybody will move to more secure pow blockchains and ethereum can fall as low as $19

and Vitalik Buterin will be plugged into Bezos's butt(AWS) for validation lol

Anyways, GPU mining for profit will be dead for at least a year after the merge. We might shift from direct profit as an incentive to a speculative incentive. GPU owners will gamble on a coin that has the potential to moon. It will be like pre-2017 bitcoin bull run all over again when miners were never in profit, and would hodl instead. Like this farm from 2015 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K8kua5B5K3I

All core dev call has just wrapped up.

Devs have decided to delay the difficulty bomb. Initial block delay adjustment is as published in the proposed EIP-5133 (https://github.com/ethereum/EIPs/blob/master/EIPS/eip-5133.md) but the delay value may be adjusted. Fork to implement the delay is planned to go in effect around Jun 29.

Also, second testnet for merge will be Sepolia, beacon chain for Sepolia will launch around Jun 20 with merge TTD to follow around 2 weeks after.

Thanks for the update.

Odds are pretty much the same since I last checked them. Still a good chance of happening during September.
If ETH crashes below 1000, we will get to test philipma's theory.

we are getting close.

It is going to be an amazing shit show.

[Coinfarm ventures]

we are getting close.

It is going to be an amazing shit show.

I can't believe I am so excited about the bloodbath in the market. Yes, I sold 80% of my video cards at a loss, but on the other hand, I gained hundreds shorting crypto stocks.

If ETH crashes below 1000, we will get to test philipma's theory.

We will also get to test my theory, where I predicted on Reddit back in April that the price of an RTX 3090 card would be $500 or less within 6 months after the PoS merge.



We're already most of the way there. Down $1800, only $700 left to go. Only 500-600 to go if you count private bulk sales.

[adaseb]

It’s nuts how fast it’s approaching the $1K area. I assumed the old $1400 ATH from 2017 would provide some type of relief. However it stalled a little right above that area and next day it just took a huge dump.

This reminds me of Nov 2018. People assume that the dip they buy is the bottom but it keeps dipping everyday for another month or so. Very dangerous catching any falling knives right now.

[edgycorner]

It is going to be an amazing shit show.

indeed. This bloodshed will turn many devs into Judas. People think differently when it's about survival.

We will also get to test my theory, where I predicted on Reddit back in April that the price of an RTX 3090 card would be $500 or less within 6 months after the PoS merge.

We're already most of the way there. Down $1800, only $700 left to go. Only 500-600 to go if you count private bulk sales.

I sold my 1.5-years old 3080s too at MSRP last month. Now they are going for half the price lol

[cudapop]

EIP-5133 updated to change block adjustment to 700,000 blocks. Devs are now targeting mid-Sep for the merge as stated in the edited EIP.

[coinut]

This list is incomplete. XMR, VTC, XDN.. etc. There is around 100 gpu minable coins for the gpu. Randomx has been implemented on the gpu to outperform any cpu. The only difference is that 90% of gpu mining will be done with the Team Black Miner.

This chart assume that ethereum is traded at $1900, but after pos, everybody will move to more secure pow blockchains and ethereum can fall as low as $19

what I have underlined is news to me. Would you share anymore detail?
also if you have a fast GPU randomx miner why would you wait until ethereum goes pos to release it? Why not be the first and release it now ? 

[Coinfarm ventures]

I sold my 1.5-years old 3080s too at MSRP last month. Now they are going for half the price lol

I'm glad I sold 15 or so video cards this week at MSRP prices too. I bought the RTX 3060's for $570, made $120 of mining profit on each one, then sold them for $300 net. That is a loss, but it could be much worse. They make 50 cents of profit/day now, plus my power cost will rise from 8 cents to 10 cents. Not worth it. I'll wait until the big crash, then I can likely buy back these RTX 3060's for just $170.

indeed. This bloodshed will turn many devs into Judas. People think differently when it's about survival.

I'm a developer and I'm not afraid at all. The most successful crypto companies were started during the bear market. They already built the technology by the time the bull market started, so they were prepared for the massive influx of new users. I remember creating a Coinbase account back in 2016, seeing the website improve, then seeing them handling all the new users in 2017-2018 effortlessly. But I don't use Coinbase anymore.

My business idea is to start a mining service where ordinary people can invest in mining with as little as $10, and can re-invest profit into more hashrate. They can buy fractions of a terahash and use whatever pool they want. The barrier to entry can be lower than having to buy an entire ASIC for $6k. If one physical farm steals the money or goes bankrupt, the hashrate can be re-routed from a different provider.

[FP91G]

https://beaconcha.in/
Where are those who want to become validators? When Ethereum was worth $4,000, there was a huge queue of applicants. I think that it is more profitable now to become a validator and wait for the price of ethereum to rise. But with such a profit, video cards will be more profitable even in a bear market.

[Coinfarm ventures]

video cards will be more profitable even in a bear market.

That's right. GPU mining is always 20%+ more profitable in a bear market compared to buying the coin, assuming the power cost is 10¢. That means you can acquire the coins for 20% cheaper.

[bitquad]

we are getting close.

It is going to be an amazing shit show.

I can't believe I am so excited about the bloodbath in the market. Yes, I sold 80% of my video cards at a loss, but on the other hand, I gained hundreds shorting crypto stocks.

If ETH crashes below 1000, we will get to test philipma's theory.

We will also get to test my theory, where I predicted on Reddit back in April that the price of an RTX 3090 card would be $500 or less within 6 months after the PoS merge.



We're already most of the way there. Down $1800, only $700 left to go. Only 500-600 to go if you count private bulk sales.

I doubt that. A RTX 3090 has 24 GB RAM. It is sought after for 3D rendering applications. No way will the card drop that low. If it does I'll buy them for sure. It is an amazing GPU. I have two that I bought new. Paid retail price for both - $1800.

[cudapop]

Consensus layer dev call wrapped up:

1) Mainnet shadow fork #7 to take place next week.
2) Sepolia testnet beacon chain to also launch next week, TTD/merge the week after.

So Sepolia testnet could be done by Jul 1 with Goerli to follow after. Since Ropsten was done Jun 8, Sepolia planned for Jul 1, if the same one month spacing is followed Goerli could be done by start of Aug. So mainnet could be in Sep.

Also, EIP-5133's 700,000 block adjustment to the difficulty bomb offset has been accepted and implemented in code. Three execution layer clients already have updated code releases, fourth client to release by today or tomorrow. This offset corresponds to an approx 3.5 month adjustment and means the ~15 sec block times being experienced now will instead occur by the end of Sep.

[Coinfarm ventures]

I doubt that. A RTX 3090 has 24 GB RAM. It is sought after for 3D rendering applications.

The big enterprise megacorps that build 3D rendering farms tend to only buy new hardware, even if the price-to-performance ratio sucks. The extra capital cost is tiny compared to the labor cost of six figure technicians & developers. These companies need warranty support as well. At worst, they will buy last-gen Quadros or RTX 4090's.

The ideal market for these used RTX 3090's would be somebody like Linus Tech Tips or a scrappy AI research startup who needs model training for cheap. These types of companies won't amount to enough demand to buy millions of RTX 3090's.

Therefore I'm sticking to my $500 prediction.

Consensus layer dev call wrapped up:

Thank you for the constant updates on the devs. I would award you merit but sadly I don't have enough.