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Question: Was $17.5K the low or price will go lower?
$17.5K was the bottom
Price will go to $14K
Price will go to $12K
Price will go to $10K
Price will go below $10K
Not sure, just hodling

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Author Topic: Was $17.5K the low?  (Read 906 times)
dragonvslinux (OP)
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June 19, 2022, 05:07:31 PM
 #1

I noticed that recently on @bitcoin twitter most users thought that price would reach $15K prior to $25K in the next few months (out of 28.7K votes), with 60% believing price will close the month of June below $20K (40.9K votes). It seems that most Bitcoiners and those following the cryptocurrency are thinking the worse is yet to come. Do bitcointalk users feel the same, who have been in the space for a little longer?

My current outlook is that price will either rebound from the $17.5K lows towards $30K, or otherwise if this support is broken then price will capitulate further to $12K.

Price is currently at the 0.236 retracement level "line in the sand" since the 2020 lows to the 2021 highs. This is where we saw consolidation in late 2020, so not unsurprising to see a bounce from this previous resistance zone. The positive here is the same as the negative imo. There is a big volume gap between $20K and $30K. Likewise, there is a big gap between $17.5K and $12K. Even zooming out further, there isn't much more volume until $12K. [...]

Based on volume alone, it won't be difficult for price to re-test $30K if $20K is reclaimed. Likewise, it wouldn't be difficult to reach $12K if $17.5K support is lost, despite how oversold price currently is. I personally don't understand much fixation with the $14K or $15K level, to me they appear to be of little trading interest. More relevantly, a so-called "typical" 83% correction would be $12K, not $14K or $15K.


I's a potentially bleak outlook, but if the 200 Week MA is reclaimed (currently $22.4K), then I believe it will confirm a bottom for many, and therefore price would be unlikely to fall lower than $17.5K again.

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June 19, 2022, 05:10:26 PM
 #2

Either we are going to see one more squeeze to margin call the longs or we are leaving those behind waiting for $13k coins...

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June 19, 2022, 05:32:47 PM
 #3

you did not give me 13k or 15k or 16k

I personally think 15.1 to 15.5k

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June 19, 2022, 08:35:16 PM
Merited by philipma1957 (1)
 #4

you did not give me 13k or 15k or 16k

Soz  Tongue

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June 19, 2022, 08:58:40 PM
 #5

I voted for "Price will go to $14K".

Well I'm basing that we are still in the early phase of bear market. and 2023 might be another year for us to experience a continuous downtrend. Maybe for this year it will be the low, but 2023,might be the worse. But we will see, at least from $17.5k to $20k and a 15% increased in the last 24 hours is not that bad.
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June 19, 2022, 09:49:21 PM
 #6

I's a potentially bleak outlook, but if the 200 Week MA is reclaimed (currently $22.4K), then I believe it will confirm a bottom for many, and therefore price would be unlikely to fall lower than $17.5K again.

It seems that the market is finally exhausted, having reached the bottom, and now the reversal will begin, well, at least I would like to think so. I look at the charts, it seems in that area, about $ 17,500, in 2020 there was a small consolidation, just before the start of a massive growth, which began to define the new ATH. Maybe this new bitcoin support, we will see in the next couple of days how the price will behave around these values.

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June 19, 2022, 09:59:51 PM
 #7

I's a potentially bleak outlook, but if the 200 Week MA is reclaimed (currently $22.4K), then I believe it will confirm a bottom for many, and therefore price would be unlikely to fall lower than $17.5K again.

It seems that the market is finally exhausted, having reached the bottom, and now the reversal will begin, well, at least I would like to think so. I look at the charts, it seems in that area, about $ 17,500, in 2020 there was a small consolidation, just before the start of a massive growth, which began to define the new ATH. Maybe this new bitcoin support, we will see in the next couple of days how the price will behave around these values.

Lets hope you are correct and yesterdays dump was it.

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June 19, 2022, 11:39:55 PM
 #8

My current outlook is that price will either rebound from the $17.5K lows towards $30K, or otherwise if this support is broken then price will capitulate further to $12K.
I do not think bitcoin price can decrease down to $12000, people are predicting $14000 or $15000 to be the lowest price or that means bitcoin becomes more volatile after this halving than 2016 halving to 2020 before the last halving.

The market is bullish presently as bitcoin increased back to $20000 and moving towards $21000, but if the bear market continues, I do not think it will decrease up to $12000, I am predicting$15000.

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June 20, 2022, 01:10:45 AM
 #9

It seems that this was some attack where there was a huge liquidation at $895 on ETH. They waited until the weekend when liquidity was low to perform this. Basically as soon as the $895 liquidation was hit, price reversed.

Now there is talk that the large FTX exchange might be bailing out some of these liquidated hedge funds. Currently its all speculation however this was enough to cause the market to rally past $20K.

Its crazy how the CME open and closed at pretty much the same price.

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June 20, 2022, 03:00:17 AM
Merited by pooya87 (2), spiderbrain (1)
 #10

I'd personally prefer that we'd get far worse sort of "market cleansing" from here. Still so much useless fluff in the broader cryptocurrency space that I want those projects to just die out first.

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June 20, 2022, 03:16:28 AM
 #11

Voted for more lower and seems like most believes this t happen , we are not stopping here t fall because the world are still experiencing our lowering market.
so we are not here to stop and just to bring more low in market , this is the movement towards 2022 and maybe will stay till 2024 before the Halving happens once again.









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June 20, 2022, 03:22:14 AM
 #12

A lot of weak hand newbies were purged from the market when the big crash occurred but the problem with irrational market behaviors is that they are going to continue being unpredictable so my vote is the last option.

I'd personally prefer that we'd get far worse sort of "market cleansing" from here. Still so much useless fluff in the broader cryptocurrency space that I want those projects to just die out first.
I think everyone would love that but the problem is that as soon as bitcoin starts rising back up again, the shitprojects would also start being created or existing ones be pumped and dumped again.

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June 20, 2022, 03:42:28 AM
 #13

I think everyone would love that but the problem is that as soon as bitcoin starts rising back up again, the shitprojects would also start being created or existing ones be pumped and dumped again.

True. Hence why I'd really want bitcoin to drop more. Also, I definitely could be very very wrong but I think BTC's dominance should rise up from here first. This huge drop was mostly caused by liquidation cascades that I don't think we've seen much retail selling yet.

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June 20, 2022, 03:55:17 AM
 #14

Now the bitcoin price has returned to $20k again, and hopefully $17k is the worst record and doesn't happen again, there will be a big impact if the bitcoin price continues to fall and what I feel is my altcoins also dropped significantly, from this lesson we have to take a plan that if the market has dropped more than 5% then I will immediately switch to stable coins as suggested by coinbase.
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June 20, 2022, 07:30:53 AM
Last edit: June 20, 2022, 08:14:14 AM by Oshosondy
 #15

I'd personally prefer that we'd get far worse sort of "market cleansing" from here. Still so much useless fluff in the broader cryptocurrency space that I want those projects to just die out first.
But if we should face reality, this does not stop new projects to be created, there are almost 10000 20000 cryptocurrencies that are presently existing, new coins are created almost daily or weekly. What I just see is that altcoins have no utility and they are centralized, centralized coins are all not worthy to be coins, but people can not change. I always say this too, altcoins are totally gambling.


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June 20, 2022, 07:46:58 AM
 #16

I'd personally prefer that we'd get far worse sort of "market cleansing" from here. Still so much useless fluff in the broader cryptocurrency space that I want those projects to just die out first.
But if we should face reality, this does not stop new projects to be created, there are almost 10000 cryptocurrencies that are presently existing, new coins are created almost daily or weekly. What I just see is that altcoins have no utility and they are centralized, centralized coins are all not worthy to be coins, but people can not change. I always say this too, altcoins are totally gambling.


Bear market isn't enough to stop for new projects to be created but at least investors will already know that new projects and altcoins can be created but they can't sustain themselves. Investors will know that some new projects out there can't last long and this is also the reason why I'm not investing into new projects anymore. It's very risky for me knowing that the chances of these projects to die or to be abandoned is very high.

Most of the new altcoins that are being created is just because of the hype or they are just following the trend and some of them don't have any use case at all like you said. They don't have their own brand at all which kinda frustrates me a bit but it is what it is.

As for the OP, I still believe that we might reach the $12k price Cheesy. I just based it on the 2018-2018 crash. With what is happening right now, I still don't see any catalysts that might affect the price movement of Bitcoin or at least there are no reasons for it to make a trend reversal at all.

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June 20, 2022, 07:48:36 AM
 #17

I'd personally prefer that we'd get far worse sort of "market cleansing" from here. Still so much useless fluff in the broader cryptocurrency space that I want those projects to just die out first.
But if we should face reality, this does not stop new projects to be created, there are almost 10000 cryptocurrencies that are presently existing, new coins are created almost daily or weekly. What I just see is that altcoins have no utility and they are centralized, centralized coins are all not worthy to be coins, but people can not change. I always say this too, altcoins are totally gambling.



There are 19935 craptos on CoinMarketCap

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June 20, 2022, 07:48:59 AM
 #18

But if we should face reality, this does not stop new projects to be created, there are almost 10000 cryptocurrencies that are presently existing, new coins are created almost daily or weekly.

Of course they won't stop. The fact that newer (probably even crappier) cryptocurrency projects can be created doesn't mean the old ones that are useless shouldn't die out.

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June 20, 2022, 08:16:31 AM
 #19

I noticed that recently on @bitcoin twitter most users thought that price would reach $15K prior to $25K in the next few months

On Bitcoin twitter handlers you'll see some who are expecting a breakout "any day now" for more than a month (and meanwhile the price keeps going lower)
So I would really take all I find on twitter with quite a pinch of salt.
And whether 17.5k was the low is hard to tell. I think that we can safely say anything only after we're far from this kind of levels, both as price and time (i.e. closer to next halving).

Right now even under-10k levels seem to be possible if we look for rather pessimistic calculations that still somewhat make sense. (I personally think/hope we won't get so low though.)

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June 20, 2022, 08:22:17 AM
 #20

I would like it to have been the low of this cycle, the problem is that as the economic situation is, many events can catapult the price down, and the price of Celsius liquidation is over $14K, so getting close to that price would be very dangerous.

The use of leverage has been partly responsible for the recent downturns we have seen, leverage that has been used and promoted during this cycle, both by certain authors and by the sitees that profit from it.

you did not give me 13k or 15k or 16k

I personally think 15.1 to 15.5k

Are you just going by intuition?

I do not dare to guess, because the price will depend on future events that we cannot predict.

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