The Russian Federation may be about to make a "Corralito"

[paxmao]

EDITED (5 JUL 2022) to add:

And... voila, here you are step number one. Next one may be confiscation.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-02-28/card/putin-imposes-capital-controls-including-restrictions-on-external-debt-payments-Kedzfom80kQtl1B7xaRs

Russian President Vladimir Putin banned residents from sending money to bank accounts abroad and blocked payments on external debt, aggressive controls on capital flow made in response to punishing Western sanctions.

...

Investors on Monday sent yields on Russia's dollar-denominated bonds issued offshore soaring to over 24%. They were less than 3% to start the year.

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Some of you know about the Argentinian corralito, by which Argentinians, from one day to the next, were not allowed to recover their USD that were converted into "pesos" at the "official rate". They were not able either to get much out the bank (was it 400 a month?).

Well, the recent economic measures taken in Russian Federation by their local despot may end up in something similar. For now:

https://sanctionsnews.bakermckenzie.com/russia-imposes-special-economic-measures-in-response-to-western-sanctions/

Russian exporters starting from February 28, 2022 are obliged to sell 80 % of foreign currency received from foreign trade contracts and obliged to sell 80 % of foreign currency credited from January 1, 2022
Russian residents are prohibited from lending to foreigners in foreign currency
Russian residents will not be able to put foreign currency on their accounts and deposits in foreign banks
Russian residents will not be able to transfer funds to foreign banks without opening a bank account using electronic means of payment provided by foreign providers of payment services
The ban comes into force on March 1, 2022.

A new "package" for locals may be about to come. Bitcoin may be the answer.

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[Hispo]

Assuming that Rusia is indeed in the way to apply such measures in order to stop the flight of capital off Russia, that means that they are either actually suffering from the sanctions (more than they would like to admit) or they are preparing themselves to live with a cut of their income in the long run.

I assume the second scenario is more likely, keeping in mind Russia still have some economical allies and the price of fuels is high.

[jackg]

Perhaps this is what forced the price of the ruble higher too, if a bunch of companies had to liqudiate most of their contract sales to rubles (and potentially foreign stock holdings) then it likely caused that spike.

[Ozero]

The obligation for Russians to sell 80% of foreign currency received under foreign trade contracts was introduced back in February, and now this rule has been canceled due to a sharp drop in imports and an artificial strengthening of the ruble.
Recently, Russia has another problem. She was declared default due to non-payment of a debt in the amount of one hundred million dollars, which is not a big problem for Russia, but due to the imposed sanctions, she actually cannot pay in dollars and tried to make payments in rubles. This has happened for the first time since 1918. Every day, problems in Russia due to sanctions will increase until it stops its war of conquest in Ukraine.

[Pomogator]

Assuming that Rusia is indeed in the way to apply such measures in order to stop the flight of capital off Russia, that means that they are either actually suffering from the sanctions (more than they would like to admit) or they are preparing themselves to live with a cut of their income in the long run.

I assume the second scenario is more likely, keeping in mind Russia still have some economical allies and the price of fuels is high.

I think this is done to maximize the rejection of dollar support. This is Russia's new policy after the freezing of their foreign assets. Now the emphasis is on the national currency and the currency of the allied states. Refusal to pay debt obligations in dollars already speaks volumes. Instead, the payment went in the national currency.

[Poker Player]

 The Russian Federation may be about...

Hey paxmao, you seem not to have noticed that this news is 4 months old. Russia is not about to do anything, those measures were already taken. So if you want to talk about corralito you better say that in Russia there is a corralito since 4 months ago.

I see a lot of talk about how badly Russia is doing, but I believe that it is not as bad as the Western media would have us believe.

[Flexystar]

That is good way to surpass the sanctions isn’t it? Russia is somehow tackling the issues of financial sanctions from all over the world through their careful planning and process of making the Ruble stronger. This could also help their locals to do business at higher confidence since they have strong currency now.

I am not sure how this has any correlation with the bitcoin but assuming the situation Russian federation may allow their people to use it in the want of bringing foreign currencies into ruble through crypto tunnel.

[paxmao]

The Russian Federation may be about...

Hey paxmao, you seem not to have noticed that this news is 4 months old. Russia is not about to do anything, those measures were already taken. So if you want to talk about corralito you better say that in Russia there is a corralito since 4 months ago.

I see a lot of talk about how badly Russia is doing, but I believe that it is not as bad as the Western media would have us believe.

I am aware, it is not recent news and it has been turned down. However it is a hint of what may happen if sanctions start biting.

In so far as how the Russian Federation is doing, at the moment well enough to finance the war, due to the price of oil and the slow pace of the effects of sanctions however the living conditions of the ordinary people are affected (unemployment, low growth,...) and this has only started. You will not see any media providing local and accurate news, but it does not mean that "nothing is happening".

One thing is clear, you do not need a 10% interest rate to sustain a currency that is "doing well".

[stompix]

That is a good way to surpass the sanctions isn’t it? Russia is somehow tackling the issues of financial sanctions from all over the world through their careful planning and process of making the Ruble stronger. This could also help their locals to do business at higher confidence since they have strong currency now.

Indeed genius move...
I wonder if your government would seize your Bitcoins, decide one is worth 10 000 dollars and convert 80% into some useless currency like a rupiah or a rial, would you still cheer this genius move that will help all their locals and their economy?

It doesn't matter how strong the ruble is on paper, in reality, nobody gives a damn about that, look at car prices in Russia every single one of them is two to three times more expensive as everyone knows that's not the real rate, it's the artificial methods of keeping a currency afloat that has driven a lot of people to bitcoin and you're here preaching about capital control and assets seizures?

I see a lot of talk about how badly Russia is doing, but I believe that it is not as bad as the Western media would have us believe.

Sanctions need time to bite, everyone was saying how sanctions don't work as Iran is doing...great 



50% inflation, 80% in poverty, 20-30% drop in food purchases as they can't afford even carrots. Wait for it, it will be worse than the crash the USSR went through.

[fiulpro]

The government have been trying to do this since the war started to keep the value of rubles above and about and they have succeeded up until now. I do think that the locals might try and : Move to some other country since no one can live like that and at the same time be able to do everything normally since the foreign companies would also start to get out of Russia. Considering bitcoins, it is included into the sanctions as well therefore at the end of the day I do think that eventually it would be harder for people to buy properties in foreign countries through bitcoins as some Russians will doing it, this is going to cause a massive unrest in the public sector and the government as well.

[Lucius]

Sanctions need time to bite, everyone was saying how sanctions don't work as Iran is doing...great 

All objective analyzes say that Russia will start feeling sanctions only in 2-3 years, provided that those who imposed them actually implement them. But what few mention is that Russia and its rulers have never cared too much for the common people, and are willing to sacrifice human lives and the standard of their people as long as it takes to achieve their goals that are now more than clear, creating great Russia within its historical borders.

Every day I hear about war crimes happening in Ukraine unseen since World War II (and crimes are undoubtedly happening), but everyone has obviously forgotten what happened in the Balkans 30 years ago when Serbs committed far more horrific war crimes in Vukovar and Srebrenica (and hundreds of other places) for which they were rewarded today with accession negotiations for EU entry.

I'm just wondering how long it will take the world to start pretending that nothing happened, 10 years after the war or maybe a few years more?

[be.open]

Sanctions need time to bite, everyone was saying how sanctions don't work as Iran is doing...great  

All objective analyzes say that Russia will start feeling sanctions only in 2-3 years, provided that those who imposed them actually implement them. But what few mention is that Russia and its rulers have never cared too much for the common people, and are willing to sacrifice human lives and the standard of their people as long as it takes to achieve their goals that are now more than clear, creating great Russia within its historical borders.

Every day I hear about war crimes happening in Ukraine unseen since World War II (and crimes are undoubtedly happening), but everyone has obviously forgotten what happened in the Balkans 30 years ago when Serbs committed far more horrific war crimes in Vukovar and Srebrenica (and hundreds of other places) for which they were rewarded today with accession negotiations for EU entry.

I'm just wondering how long it will take the world to start pretending that nothing happened, 10 years after the war or maybe a few years more?

I think Europe will only need one cold enough winter to get all the renewable energy shit out of its head.

[Darker45]

And some people are still happily proclaiming that the Russian ruble is the world's strongest currency as if everything's not artificial and fake. All these extreme totalitarian measures are the reasons why the country's currency is still breathing. Without all these controls, it will crash.

So it's not a maybe for Bitcoin; it is the answer. Unless perhaps if they are already brainwashed to the bones that they think it is wiser to save in ruble than Bitcoin.

[Haunebu]

Russia is already dependent on BTC and some other cryptocurrencies to some extent, but the constant sanctions will definitely increase their dependence on them even more as time passes.

They keep acting like their economy is fine which is obviously a lie and anyone with a half-decent brain can see that. Recent gold imports ban was another big blow to them.

[VKcams.com]

Recent gold imports ban was another big blow to them.

Make a world map of the countries that support this ban.
And look at what BRICS is.

1$ = 53 rub

[The Sceptical Chymist]

Perhaps this is what forced the price of the ruble higher too, if a bunch of companies had to liqudiate most of their contract sales to rubles (and potentially foreign stock holdings) then it likely caused that spike.

Hmm.  I know I've brought this up multiple times over the years, but does anyone remember Long Term Capital Management from 1997-8?  It was Russia defaulting on their debt that almost brought down the economies of the US and probably other countries as well.  Hopefully there aren't any gigantic hedge funds these days using massive leverage to trade foreign currency....hopefully.

And no one saw that near-disaster coming either.

[naira]

Perhaps this is what forced the price of the ruble higher too, if a bunch of companies had to liqudiate most of their contract sales to rubles (and potentially foreign stock holdings) then it likely caused that spike.

It's true, this kind of financial implementation scheme is almost the same as what we saw about the wartime Ruble strengthening plan. Besides, it is clear that in order to organize the power of the country's currency and limit the circulation of foreign money. Trying to get people used to it little by little eroding foreign money. Based on the sources above that the agreed date and year, without us knowing it from the start, Russia prepared the ruble financially, followed by the tragedy at the end of February.

[Fortify]

Some of you know about the Argentinian corralito, by which Argentinians, from one day to the next, were not allowed to recover their USD that were converted into "pesos" at the "official rate". They were not able either to get much out the bank (was it 400 a month?).

Well, the recent economic measures taken in Russian Federation by their local despot may end up in something similar. For now:

https://sanctionsnews.bakermckenzie.com/russia-imposes-special-economic-measures-in-response-to-western-sanctions/

Russian exporters starting from February 28, 2022 are obliged to sell 80 % of foreign currency received from foreign trade contracts and obliged to sell 80 % of foreign currency credited from January 1, 2022
Russian residents are prohibited from lending to foreigners in foreign currency
Russian residents will not be able to put foreign currency on their accounts and deposits in foreign banks
Russian residents will not be able to transfer funds to foreign banks without opening a bank account using electronic means of payment provided by foreign providers of payment services
The ban comes into force on March 1, 2022.

A new "package" for locals may be about to come. Bitcoin may be the answer.

As Europe slowly pivots away from Russian energy supplies, the final major source of income it receives is going to dry up or at least drop substantially as other countries will pay less for it. Claims that the rouble is strong are undermined when we see these sort of capital controls in place, if it was allowed to float and trade in a free market then we would see a huge outflow of money trying to escape Russia - as it is a very risky and unstable business environment, which is very bad for finances.

[Lucius]

I think Europe will only need one cold enough winter to get all the renewable energy shit out of its head.

EU bureaucrats have always presented themselves as extra smart, and now they have turned out to be almost the dumbest when it comes to energy policy. It's not just green energy, but that almost 500 million people now live in fear that they will not be able to heat next winter, or that the price of fuel will reach 3 EUR per liter, so they will have to ride bicycles or use public transport.

The utterly failed policy of making so many people dependent on just one country for oil and gas will hit those in power now. Parliamentary elections in France have shown that some radical political options will get more and more space, and Russia is counting on such an outcome. The real war may end in a few months, but the Cold War will last for years and will have far more severe consequences than in the past.

[VKcams.com]

the price of fuel will reach 3 EUR per liter, so they will have to ride bicycles or use public transport.

It's ridiculous money compared to income in Europe.
In Bulgaria and Romania and Estonia it would be hard, of course.