FIFA World Cup 2026 :Canada/Mexico/United States: Discussion Thread

[TedMosby]

[...]

I haven't seen anything so far that would justify Brazil's odds at this world cup. BTW, Stake has downgraded their odds to win the trophy. Latest odds are:

1. France: 4.50
2. Spain: 7.00
3. Englnad: 7.00
4. Argentina: 9.00
5. Portugal: 11.00
6. Germany: 13.00
7. Brazil: 13.50

Previously, for both Brazil and Argentina, the odds were same (11.00). Argentina moved up, while Brazil went down after the initial set of matches. Same with France and Spain. France has moved up, while Spain got downgraded. 

I checked the World Cup 2026 market with the highest liquidity on Polymarket, and it seems like bettors are favoring France too, but with a significant odds difference. Here are the contestants with odds over 1%:

France - 20%
Spain - 14%
England - 13%
Argentina - 12%
Portugal - 7%
Brazil - 6%
Netherlands - 6%
Germany - 5%
USA - 4%
Norway - 2%
Morocco - 2%
Japan - 2%
Belgium - 2%

I am more interested in Japan this year. They will probably reach the quarterfinals at least.
I am thinking of placing a bet on Japan in this market and selling it later
What do you guys think?


Source:
https://polymarket.com/event/world-cup-winner

[Razmirraz]

Spain vs Saudi Arabia

What do you think about the upcoming match? Will Spain end up with another draw, or will they try to make up for their previous disappointing result with a victory?

From my perspective, Spain still haven't found a good rhythm, as they have also been drawing quite often since their friendly matches. Looking at the head to head record, Spain have always managed to beat Saudi Arabia, but usually by a narrow margin. Their attacking line hasn't been sharp enough, and today I predict that Spain will probably win, but by a low score difference.

Historically, Spain has dominated the head-to-head record and has always won against Saudi Arabia. In this match, both teams have the same ambition to get full points. Spain who previously failed to capitalize on their chances against Cape Verde, had to settle for a draw. This time, Luis de la Fuente will try a tactical change by maximizing the playing time of Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams from the start to break the deadlock in attack.
Spain will continue to control the game because the quality of the squad they have is much more complete than Saudi Arabia. Although Saudi Arabia will try to re-implement the disciplined, low-block defense and quick counter-attacks they employed against Uruguay, Spain will win this match because Luis de la Fuente will not repeat the same mistake for the second time in a row.

[Unsoldier]

Spain is simply bound to redeem themselves today for their first match and prove that the draw against Curacao was just a huge misunderstanding. The Spaniards certainly need a win, but I don't expect a large number of goals from them. I think the Saudis won't take risks either and, just like Curacao, will focus on defense, though Saudi Arabia will certainly try to put up a fight against their opponent. Still, in all likelihood, Spain will get the victory, but it won't be a blowout. It will most likely be a low-scoring match.

[Shishir99]

France - 20%
Spain - 14%
England - 13%
Argentina - 12%
Portugal - 7%
Brazil - 6%
Netherlands - 6%
Germany - 5%
USA - 4%
Norway - 2%
Morocco - 2%
Japan - 2%
Belgium - 2%

Interesting. It seems there are not many Brazilian fans. Even if there are, they are placing bets for another country. It is strange that Brazil got only 6% in that list. Personally, I would say they have at least 25% chance to win this World Cup. There are a couple of teams that may fight to win the World Cup, and Brazil should be one of them. I am not sure why people in France are so confident. The Netherlands is the only team that has not lost any match in 90 minutes in the last 12 World Cup matches. They lost the matches in a penalty shootout. So, the Netherlands should have a better chance to winning the World Cup. Personally, I would bet on Brazil and the Netherlands, and I will see which team wins the World Cup this year.

[nikola22]

Interesting. It seems there are not many Brazilian fans. Even if there are, they are placing bets for another country. It is strange that Brazil got only 6% in that list. Personally, I would say they have at least 25% chance to win this World Cup. There are a couple of teams that may fight to win the World Cup, and Brazil should be one of them. I am not sure why people in France are so confident. The Netherlands is the only team that has not lost any match in 90 minutes in the last 12 World Cup matches. They lost the matches in a penalty shootout. So, the Netherlands should have a better chance to winning the World Cup. Personally, I would bet on Brazil and the Netherlands, and I will see which team wins the World Cup this year.

apparently, there's little faith in Brazil's strength after their first two matches at the tournament. they showed they have good players but lack teamwork. against relatively weak teams Brazil still looks good but against a strong organized team they could face trouble. perhaps Brazil will improve as the tournament progresses as it was at the last World Cup when Argentina lost their first match to Saudi Arabia but then won the tournament.

[Tonimez]

Interesting. It seems there are not many Brazilian fans. Even if there are, they are placing bets for another country. It is strange that Brazil got only 6% in that list. Personally, I would say they have at least 25% chance to win this World Cup. There are a couple of teams that may fight to win the World Cup, and Brazil should be one of them. I am not sure why people in France are so confident. The Netherlands is the only team that has not lost any match in 90 minutes in the last 12 World Cup matches. They lost the matches in a penalty shootout. So, the Netherlands should have a better chance to winning the World Cup. Personally, I would bet on Brazil and the Netherlands, and I will see which team wins the World Cup this year.

apparently, there's little faith in Brazil's strength after their first two matches at the tournament. they showed they have good players but lack teamwork. against relatively weak teams Brazil still looks good but against a strong organized team they could face trouble. perhaps Brazil will improve as the tournament progresses as it was at the last World Cup when Argentina lost their first match to Saudi Arabia but then won the tournament.

You're right. I strongly believe that Brazil has the human resources to perform better than they are doing now and watching from their previous matches there's no hope for them but I think that if Carlo Ancelloti should look inward and analyse his resources, he could utilise what he has in a better formation. If he can be starting Cunha like he did in the previous game, the results may get better. I expected Brazil to score more goals against Haiti but they ended up playing a barren second half. Let's see how the tournament will go but from my analysis, Brazil may not go beyond the Quarter finals and they're out.

[$weetne$$]

apparently, there's little faith in Brazil's strength after their first two matches at the tournament. they showed they have good players but lack teamwork. against relatively weak teams Brazil still looks good but against a strong organized team they could face trouble. perhaps Brazil will improve as the tournament progresses as it was at the last World Cup when Argentina lost their first match to Saudi Arabia but then won the tournament.

This rating I suppose is due to the performance seen so far and maybe the depth and strength of the teams. But I do not want to agree to this ratings because there is still  a long way to go, it is after the knock out stage I will  want  to agree to any of these ratings because I know  they are going  to change after now as the competition progresses,  some team will show more strength and some may suffer some set backs after now.

[asriloni]

Germany vs. Ivory Coast and Netherlands vs. Sweden are the two matches worth watching tonight and both should be entertaining.

I see Germany as the clear favorites and I think they'll win comfortably against Ivory Coast.

Netherlands vs. Sweden match could be much more competitive. The two teams are at a very similar level and I think there's a good chance the match could end in a draw.

Germany 1.55 vs Ivory 6.75

The odds clearly said Germany is in favor to win the game. However, i think this game is very hard to know the outcome. I remember Ivory was beating France in friendly. So Ivory odds looks underpriced. This game is also possible to end with the draw as the result.

I'd rather take total over than money line. Germany may win this, but most probably they do it with narrow score like 2-1.


Netherland 1.82 vs Sweden 5.30

I expect Netherland to win the game. So i prefer to take money line on them. Many said Sweden was doing well by leading the group, but it's because they won against poor tunisia while Netherland fought a difficult japanese team. I remind you japan is far tougher than Sweden, which is inconsistent.

So i have big expectation for Netherland to win this game. 1.82 for Netherland is very worthy to bet.

I think Ivory Coast is fully capable of scoring against Germany. The Germans are more attack-minded right now and occasionally make mistakes in defense—after all, even Curacao managed to score against them. I think both teams will score, but Germany is definitely the favorite.

As for the Netherlands vs Sweden match, I don’t expect an easy win for the Dutch. The Swedes know how to put up a fight. I wouldn't be surprised if the game turns out to be very tight and ends in a draw.

Yeah, Ivory scored, and the game ended with 2-1 like what i said. Germany was good but Ivory could not be underrated. It's so good they were proving themselves by not giving a cleansheet to the Germany.

On other hand, ez game by Netherland as i predicted.

[SOKO-DEKE]

Spain vs Saudi Arabia

What do you think about the upcoming match? Will Spain end up with another draw, or will they try to make up for their previous disappointing result with a victory?

From my perspective, Spain still haven't found a good rhythm, as they have also been drawing quite often since their friendly matches. Looking at the head to head record, Spain have always managed to beat Saudi Arabia, but usually by a narrow margin. Their attacking line hasn't been sharp enough, and today I predict that Spain will probably win, but by a low score difference.

Yes, it is true that Spain have not been getting good results in their recent friendly matches, and that shows that they may not be as strong as we are expecting them to be. Based on the results they have gotten recently, their first match in the World Cup ended in a goalless draw, which was a surprise to many people because they never expected that kind of result from Spain.Even I thought that match would be easy for them and that they would win by many goals, but surprisingly, Spain could not score a goal. Now, today, they have a match against Saudi Arabia, which I know will not be easy for Spain to win based on their current form. However, I still see Spain as the favorite team to win the match because Saudi Arabia are not in good form either. Their friendly match results have not been good as well.

So, if I have to compare these two teams' results, I would say that Spain have a better chance of winning this match than Saudi Arabia. In fact, I do not think Spain will mess up in this game because that could cost them a lot, as it would definitely reduce their chances of qualifying for the Round of 16. Therefore, I expect Spain to do everything possible to win this match.

[Rashlyowl]

Finally, I have my first world cup bet. Made the decision because I was sure that Spain would really beat Saudi Arabia by a lot of goals, Spain need to win this match if they want to secure a safe position in the group.



I predict that Spain will win by 4 goals or more, 3 goals in the first half & the rest will come in the second half. The match will be going on in a few minutes, let's see what I'll get at the end.

[Inwestour]

Spain is simply bound to redeem themselves today for their first match and prove that the draw against Curacao was just a huge misunderstanding. The Spaniards certainly need a win, but I don't expect a large number of goals from them. I think the Saudis won't take risks either and, just like Curacao, will focus on defense, though Saudi Arabia will certainly try to put up a fight against their opponent. Still, in all likelihood, Spain will get the victory, but it won't be a blowout. It will most likely be a low-scoring match.

Spain drew with Cape Verde, not Curacao, but the main point of what you're saying is correct. Today they simply have to beat Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia also managed to draw their first match against Uruguay, they withstood a huge amount of pressure from Uruguay in that game. I don't think they will approach the match against Spain in the same way by defending for the entire game. However I don't believe Spain will have two surprising draws in a row. Today there will definitely be a Spanish victory and at least two goals from Spain.

[Popkon6]

Interesting. It seems there are not many Brazilian fans. Even if there are, they are placing bets for another country. It is strange that Brazil got only 6% in that list. Personally, I would say they have at least 25% chance to win this World Cup. There are a couple of teams that may fight to win the World Cup, and Brazil should be one of them. I am not sure why people in France are so confident. The Netherlands is the only team that has not lost any match in 90 minutes in the last 12 World Cup matches. They lost the matches in a penalty shootout. So, the Netherlands should have a better chance to winning the World Cup. Personally, I would bet on Brazil and the Netherlands, and I will see which team wins the World Cup this year.

apparently, there's little faith in Brazil's strength after their first two matches at the tournament. they showed they have good players but lack teamwork. against relatively weak teams Brazil still looks good but against a strong organized team they could face trouble. perhaps Brazil will improve as the tournament progresses as it was at the last World Cup when Argentina lost their first match to Saudi Arabia but then won the tournament.

This will never happen in the case of the Brazilian team, there is a lot of weakness in the players in the Brazilian team. Because they are performing like this against weak teams, it seems that the Brazilian team is performing while losing. Argentina was surprised in the last World Cup, they returned to form after losing to Saudi Arabia. But this season, the weak teams are performing well, because in the first match these weak teams shook the strong team.
As happened with Brazil vs Morocco, but in the second match, the Brazilian team won but the opponent team was weak. So if the Brazilian team has to win the World Cup, they must perform better.

[Ale88]

Ronaldo is starting to become a problem for the national team. Probably even his teammates realized. Why? Because now he is obsessed with his own records, he plays to score, that's it. Take a look at Messi: he is the opposite, he plays for the team, he doesn't care whether he scores or not, he is there to help the team. Ronaldo can be useful of course but I wouldn't start the next match with him.

Messi's situation is different. Messi is respected, Ronaldo isn't, and that's a war of egos. When Ronaldo was young, he respected Figo; he never said Figo was just another player. Now, the new generations don't respect their elders, the legends. I wish my country had had a Ronaldo; I'm sure he would have led them to a World Cup, and everyone would have run and worked for him. In Portugal, the players think they're better than him, but none of them are.

You do understand you are basically saying that Ronaldo is more important than the rest of the Portuguese national team? A national team plays for its people, not for a single football player who wants to beat records. Ronaldo has been a huge player but now he is becoming a serious problem for his own team. None of the players said they think better than him, they simply said Ronaldo is a player just like everybody else. Probably everybody but Ronaldo understood what playing for a national team means.

[EarnOnVictor]

I checked the World Cup 2026 market with the highest liquidity on Polymarket, and it seems like bettors are favoring France too, but with a significant odds difference. Here are the contestants with odds over 1%:

France - 20%
-Snip-

"France too"? You underrated France as if you never expected it. But that's not accurate with football lovers and analysts. From day 1, I knew France was a good contender. Aside from the fact that they won the 2018 world cup, they are the first runner-up in the last one (penalty shootout), and the team has not shown any weakness still.

I am more interested in Japan this year. They will probably reach the quarterfinals at least.
I am thinking of placing a bet on Japan in this market and selling it later
What do you guys think?

I consider it too risky! You might want to limit the size of the bet.

[TastyChillySauce00]

I'm wondering what you guys think about this. Doku is gonna leaving his club camp to attend on the birth of his child. It's very sad so many people blamed him because of this. His child only born once in a live. So i'd agree with his decision.
Yeah, it sounds unprofessional to leave his club when he's still needed, but there are still 25 players remaining. So his position can be replaced temporary.

It's also disappointed so many france media is also framing this like it's a criminal to attend on the birth of his child.

[katanic97]

Interesting. It seems there are not many Brazilian fans. Even if there are, they are placing bets for another country. It is strange that Brazil got only 6% in that list. Personally, I would say they have at least 25% chance to win this World Cup. There are a couple of teams that may fight to win the World Cup, and Brazil should be one of them. I am not sure why people in France are so confident. The Netherlands is the only team that has not lost any match in 90 minutes in the last 12 World Cup matches. They lost the matches in a penalty shootout. So, the Netherlands should have a better chance to winning the World Cup. Personally, I would bet on Brazil and the Netherlands, and I will see which team wins the World Cup this year.

apparently, there's little faith in Brazil's strength after their first two matches at the tournament. they showed they have good players but lack teamwork. against relatively weak teams Brazil still looks good but against a strong organized team they could face trouble. perhaps Brazil will improve as the tournament progresses as it was at the last World Cup when Argentina lost their first match to Saudi Arabia but then won the tournament.

This will never happen in the case of the Brazilian team, there is a lot of weakness in the players in the Brazilian team. Because they are performing like this against weak teams, it seems that the Brazilian team is performing while losing. Argentina was surprised in the last World Cup, they returned to form after losing to Saudi Arabia. But this season, the weak teams are performing well, because in the first match these weak teams shook the strong team.
As happened with Brazil vs Morocco, but in the second match, the Brazilian team won but the opponent team was weak. So if the Brazilian team has to win the World Cup, they must perform better.

Morocco is not a bad team at all. We all remember the last world cup when they knocked out Portugal and ended up playing for third place. Of course, Brazil needs to improve, but so far they haven't looked bad at all, and i expect them to go far in this tournament.

[Ale88]

I'm wondering what you guys think about this. Doku is gonna leaving his club camp to attend on the birth of his child. It's very sad so many people blamed him because of this. His child only born once in a live. So i'd agree with his decision.
Yeah, it sounds unprofessional to leave his club when he's still needed, but there are still 25 players remaining. So his position can be replaced temporary.

It's also disappointed so many france media is also framing this like it's a criminal to attend on the birth of his child.

I think people forgot a long time ago what being human means. I understand Doku is a professional player but being present when your first child will be born is once in a lifetime experience. I totally side with him. If Belgium had to play a World Cup final then I admit I wouldn't know what to think but criticizing him for leaving at this point of the tournament is ridiculous.
Also, I think he already spoke beforehand with his manager about this, or at least I hope.

[Taricoins]

Spain vs Saudi Arabia

What do you think about the upcoming match? Will Spain end up with another draw, or will they try to make up for their previous disappointing result with a victory?

From my perspective, Spain still haven't found a good rhythm, as they have also been drawing quite often since their friendly matches. Looking at the head to head record, Spain have always managed to beat Saudi Arabia, but usually by a narrow margin. Their attacking line hasn't been sharp enough, and today I predict that Spain will probably win, but by a low score difference.

Undisputed facts, SPAIN will win and they will trash Saydi Arabia.i predict that they will score over 4 goals and Yamal will get an assist. The biggest shift in Spain from there previous performance is that Yamal is starting the match and that creativity is beyond match. The only thing that would be good for Saudi Arabia Is that they may get a goal out of it

[Supreme Donvic]

Finally, I have my first world cup bet. Made the decision because I was sure that Spain would really beat Saudi Arabia by a lot of goals, Spain need to win this match if they want to secure a safe position in the group.



I predict that Spain will win by 4 goals or more, 3 goals in the first half & the rest will come in the second half. The match will be going on in a few minutes, let's see what I'll get at the end.

Congratulation your bet has entered as you predicted it, I have predicted in this world cup and all my bet have not played according to my prediction I really don't know what is happening winning money in this world cup is becoming difficult for me this was not the experience I had in the last world cup.
I would never have believed that Spain is going to win this match this way they have already scored three goals and they are still in the first half and before the end of the first half they may score another goal making it 4 goals and in the second half they are going to score more this is something that I will never expect from them especially after watching their last match.
Congratulation to Spain and congratulation to you too.

[ruykeri]

Spain took a big lead early on. At the moment, they are leading 3-0, while KSA is not playing very well. Spain has managed to score 3 goals in just 30 minutes. I think the goal difference will increase further. Leading like this at the beginning has made them much more confident. Although KSA is a much weaker team compared to them. But in this World Cup, it is not possible to say which team is really weak and which is strong. Except for a few countries in the top row, the performance of the rest of the countries seems completely unpredictable. Let's see how much Spain can increase the goal difference in the remaining time or whether KSA can bring themselves into a good position.