India is the new economic leader of global south. And replacement for China?...

[Sunderland]

Lets have a look at the stuffs around us, how many of them are Made in China?
China nickname is The World's Factory, from our phone to our underwear maybe made in China, yeah they able to produce anything in a massive quantity and cheap, for quality - dont ask lol.

I agree to someone above who said it will need decades to overthrown China as the most powerful economic country in Asia.
China gov can control everything because of their ideology but not with India.

India might be able to surpass China after the India gov able to slow down the population growth, eliminate the massive corruption, build more factories, provide a better education system and health care system including basic sanitation, reduce the pollution and many more.

[stompix]

Lets have a look at the stuffs around us, how many of them are Made in China?
China nickname is The World's Factory, from our phone to our underwear maybe made in China, yeah they able to produce anything in a massive quantity and cheap, for quality - dont ask lol.

If everything is made in China, then what the hell are all these other figures about?


It's like the Huawey phone, made in China with a CPU from Taiwan, memory and display from South Korea and Japan, lenses from Germany, and sensors from France, not to mention the materials not even 10% coming directly from China.
Nearly all the things in my kitchen are from Germany and Poland (maybe Hungary), the majority of clothes that are foreign come from Bangladesh India and Egypt, all cosmetics are also European, furniture is either from Osterreich or Sweden or even Romania, the whole China is manufacturing everything is a myth, if that would be the case what would all those 70 million in EU and 80 million in US do in manufacturing? Mint ordinals?

The only big advantage of India is the enormous population, but this can be a double edged sword, because 99% of those people are very poor and uneducated. The "poverty trap" is a big problem for India.

The actual advantage India has is that it hasn't pissed off every single of its neighbors and it's not nearly at war with every single country in east asia over this. While India has a beef with Pakistan, China has one with India, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, the Philipines, Malaysia, and not to mention Taiwan.
China grew perfectly and received investments when it wasn't trying to be a complete bully, now that the mask is off, it is the investment and there goes the manufacturing and trading.


 

[topbitcoin]

India has that opportunity, but whether India will succeed in overtaking China's position at this time ... we'll see the development, because of course China will also not be idle when its position is being threatened.
With economic growth of more than 7%, which is not only the country with the highest economic growth in the Asian region, but India is also the country with the highest economic growth in the world. So it is not surprising that India is predicted as the new economic leader in the southern region.

However, with all the new problems that continue to threaten the Indian economy, the facts show that the involvement of Indian people in the workforce has only reached less than 50%. It is true that over time, the workforce will continue to increase, but of course this will take quite a long time decades. And when compared with China, China is far superior in terms of workforce.

It is possible that India could become the new economic leader in the southern region, if the country can quickly overcome the quality of education and health services in the country. So that India can immediately produce good quality and qualified Human Resources, who are able to compete in the national and international arena. And with this, the involvement of Indians in the labor force will increase immediately.

[kryptqnick]

India is the world's 5th economy, but it's nearly 6 times smaller than China in terms of GDP. The Global South needs investments, and India can surely offer some of that, but nowhere near what China can offer, simply because the Chinese economy is so much bigger.
That being said, India is gaining more influence, and it's possible that China's becoming less interested in the Global South right now, which helps India's cause. It is also obviously a better option for the Western world, considering that India is troubled, but a democracy, whereas China is a very authoritarian regime.
If anything, I think India has a better chance of exercising political influence in that region, than economic influence, when it comes to rivalry with China.

[el kaka22]

China has used their power for evil, and that made people stop using them all together, I think that has to be one of the most important things. I cannot guarantee which other nation will get power from this, but if used their cards right, nations could get the manufacturing done in China to be moving to their nation, and at first it may not be all that awesome, remember "made in china" used to mean shitty products, all the things they did were easily broken and terrible products, nowadays everything is made there, any new nation could still make bad stuff, and yet they could improve with time and do better.

I believe that we are going to see some other nation get very rich off China's decision to be evil towards others.

[DrBeer]

Lets have a look at the stuffs around us, how many of them are Made in China?
China nickname is The World's Factory, from our phone to our underwear maybe made in China, yeah they able to produce anything in a massive quantity and cheap, for quality - dont ask lol.

I agree to someone above who said it will need decades to overthrown China as the most powerful economic country in Asia.
China gov can control everything because of their ideology but not with India.

India might be able to surpass China after the India gov able to slow down the population growth, eliminate the massive corruption, build more factories, provide a better education system and health care system including basic sanitation, reduce the pollution and many more.

Done is not synonymous with SOLD.
That's why the Chinese economy is export-dependent. And if the west stops buying its mass product, what can we talk about ? And this is exactly what is happening now - exports are falling, the largest capital outflow is taking place, western markets are turning away from Chinese products. And that's just the beginning of the problems.
I think the polite visit of China's ruler to the US is planned for a reason. And there will be discussed not only China's participation in supporting (and what level, it is also interesting) dubious regimes and dubious "HYIPs", but also the issue of saving the Chinese economy. BUT, I don't think China will be able to quickly and fully regain the West's favor....

Regarding "total control" - you probably mean totalitarianism in the new vector of China's development ? Yes, that's what it is - the state is "subjugating" private business and private companies. But it is not equal to getting a quality industry. Chinese businessmen and workers used to be motivated to earn more, and they succeeded. This is where one of the "trump cards" of the global factory - low labor costs - collapses. Nowadays, you can't make a Chinese person work for a penny.... now they will be forced either by ideology or by pressure... But remember the saying, "Slaves never work efficiently."

India is the world's 5th economy, but it's nearly 6 times smaller than China in terms of GDP. The Global South needs investments, and India can surely offer some of that, but nowhere near what China can offer, simply because the Chinese economy is so much bigger.
That being said, India is gaining more influence, and it's possible that China's becoming less interested in the Global South right now, which helps India's cause. It is also obviously a better option for the Western world, considering that India is troubled, but a democracy, whereas China is a very authoritarian regime.
If anything, I think India has a better chance of exercising political influence in that region, than economic influence, when it comes to rivalry with China.

Let me remind you again - China's economy hinges on Western investment, the Western consumer market, and Western technology. This is now a thing of the past. China has not been able to take BRICS under itself, nor has it been able to find donors for its economy. That is why China has a problem - no matter how much it produces, if there is no buyer, there is no profit. And a billion people have to be maintained, especially if they go on totalitarian rails.

India is the new leader of the global south .... And a replacement for China ?

So the question is - what do you think about India's potential, opportunities and prospects, in light of the idea of India becoming at least the economical "Head of the Global South", and possibly "one of the poles of the world system" ?

The political stability of any country has a profound impact on its economy and India has been very fortunate in this regard. I think India is seeing a lot of growth, especially in the IT sector. You can judge the quality of education from the fact that you will often find Indians at the head of large international companies in the world.

India is also experiencing industrial growth and new businesses are being started. India is growing a lot in mobile companies and car manufacturing companies , it is also growing in technology. Recently, India had a successful experience in launching a space mission to the moon, Which shows that he is making progress. It is possible that India will replace China in the next few years and has the potential to challenge a big economy like China.

One of the key advantages of India is that a change of government or a change of elites does not have a strong negative impact on private business and economic development. What China can't boast of. As I already said, the new vector of domestic policy is authoritarianism and a “strong hand,” which negatively affects the development of private entrepreneurship and the free development of the market. China has already begun to strictly control and interfere in the affairs of private business, which negatively affects its domestic and foreign economy. And it’s difficult to call the prospects good. This is why India gets an additional “trump card” to compete with China

[Kelward]

Not yet at least. But the general direction is probably going there. With China's labor cost going up higher and India becoming one of the main options for companies exiting China, the potential is there. Not to mention that India is already an industrialized country, its people very able to cater the needs of a globalized world with its English proficiency, its socio-political environment much healthier, and so on.

It doesn't help that China's economy is imploding and its huge real-estate market seems to be in a state of crisis. Problems are rising in the red country.

I believe that the OP must come from India, and I admire his patriotism and zeal that his country is next in line to take over from China, in the quest for leadership of the global south. That will be difficult because China, as we know is a global world power in terms of it's industrialization, and there impact is felt everywhere in the world.

 Believe me that over 90% of what we use in Africa, are imported from china, and I have the believe that it will be so in other continents. So for India, to rival and eventually overtake them is not impossible, but it might take a very very long time.

You know how the saying goes " he who pays the Piper detects the tune". So if western powers shifts their industrial focus from China, to India, won't they have upper hand in the control of India's economy?

[Juse14]

Lets have a look at the stuffs around us, how many of them are Made in China?
China nickname is The World's Factory, from our phone to our underwear maybe made in China, yeah they able to produce anything in a massive quantity and cheap, for quality - dont ask lol.

Starting from electronic goods to household furniture around me, almost everything is made in China. China has succeeded in capturing and dominating the lower middle class market, because China has succeeded in reducing product prices to the lowest level. So the product is very popular with the lower middle class segment of society. As for the product quality, it is in accordance with the price given.

One thing I applaud from China is that apart from being able to control the market, China is also able to implement an understanding so that its people love local products more than foreign products. So that this is able to encourage China's economy and products to be even more superior, not only abroad, but also within the country. And things like this are very rarely found in various countries, because most people are generally prouder of using foreign products, rather than local products made domestically.
China's economy is already strong, both abroad and within the country, so to shift China's position at this time, it seems impossible.

[ChiBitCTy]

One thing I know for certain is that I don’t trust the economic data that comes out of China. China constantly lies about their economic production, among all sorts of other economic numbers, and I simply don’t trust anything that comes out of that nation. They’ve had an economic issue with “ghost cities” for well over a decade now which is majorly hurting their economy and it’s something that aren’t super open about. I could definitely see India taking over in the east.

[BIT-BENDER]

If the current government stays in power for next couple of years, I personally won't be surprised if India becomes an economy of  5 trillion dollars. We are on the right track.

With the amount of human resources India has at it disposal I think yes they are meant to have a solid economy, although years of corrupt leaders and how they have put India in bad shape, I think what's happening in India now is a recovery phase, the sitting government has been amazing and if inconstancy is in play India would be a big force in the global economy but not to match china, just like India china has great human resources and they have been on the right track for a very long time, China is constantly improving and I see them being an ultimate power nation ahead of USA.

[Gozie51]

One thing I know for certain is that I don’t trust the economic data that comes out of China. China constantly lies about their economic production, among all sorts of other economic numbers, and I simply don’t trust anything that comes out of that nation. They’ve had an economic issue with “ghost cities” for well over a decade now which is majorly hurting their economy and it’s something that aren’t super open about. I could definitely see India taking over in the east.

Moreover they are being associated with substandard products and it has flooded the market making people to spend more in multiple buy because such products that are substandard get spoilt or condemned as quick as possible making customers not to get optimal utility.

However, China is not an emerging economy like india, they have grown their economy somehow whether we agree or not or whether they falsify their economic records. They are still larger than the India economy which is still emerging with potential to also be classified as top economies of the world.

[DrBeer]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5473385.new#new

Not yet at least. But the general direction is probably going there. With China's labor cost going up higher and India becoming one of the main options for companies exiting China, the potential is there. Not to mention that India is already an industrialized country, its people very able to cater the needs of a globalized world with its English proficiency, its socio-political environment much healthier, and so on.

It doesn't help that China's economy is imploding and its huge real-estate market seems to be in a state of crisis. Problems are rising in the red country.

I believe that the OP must come from India, and I admire his patriotism and zeal that his country is next in line to take over from China, in the quest for leadership of the global south. That will be difficult because China, as we know is a global world power in terms of it's industrialization, and there impact is felt everywhere in the world.

 Believe me that over 90% of what we use in Africa, are imported from china, and I have the believe that it will be so in other continents. So for India, to rival and eventually overtake them is not impossible, but it might take a very very long time.

You know how the saying goes " he who pays the Piper detects the tune". So if western powers shifts their industrial focus from China, to India, won't they have upper hand in the control of India's economy?

1. China is still the largest producer of EVERYTHING. But nothing lasts forever under the moon. History remembers examples of the fall of empires, and what to say about economies, especially those that do not want to play by the rules? I think the path the Chinese government has chosen now is a path to degradation, and many indicators already confirm it. From falling exports, to capital outflow and almost zero investment attractiveness. And for an export-oriented economy this is like a verdict....
2 Regarding "enslavement of the economy" - no one has enslaved the economy in China. Moreover, India is quite an intelligent and pragmatic country aimed at mutually beneficial cooperation, not at "surrendering territories". Do not underestimate India !
Well, and the second argument - investors need to make a profit, or reduce costs, but not to support workers, cities and regions. The period of seizures in the civilized world is long over ...

[Mauser]

So the question is - what do you think about India's potential, opportunities and prospects, in light of the idea of India becoming at least the economical "Head of the Global South", and possibly "one of the poles of the world system" ?

India definitely has a lot of potential to become a strong country in the future, they have the highest population in the world and geographical good position between the west and the east. USA would like for India to become the counterweight against China in Asia. The decoupling by western countries of China is bringing a lot benefits for India. The real question is if this is going to be enough to overtake China in the long run. Personally I am a bit sceptical because India has a lot of problems of their own. Especially the rivalry with Pakistan, another high population country, is going to generate a lot of tension in the future. China's rivals are all very small except for USA and they can use more financial leverage to get their ways. In my opinion India is going to show high growth rates in the future, but it's not going to be high enough to overtake China. Western countries have too many own problems to afford building up India completely.

[DrBeer]

One thing I know for certain is that I don’t trust the economic data that comes out of China. China constantly lies about their economic production, among all sorts of other economic numbers, and I simply don’t trust anything that comes out of that nation. They’ve had an economic issue with “ghost cities” for well over a decade now which is majorly hurting their economy and it’s something that aren’t super open about. I could definitely see India taking over in the east.

Lying is one of the key tools of totalitarian regimes. And those who have "feet of clay" but want to appear to everyone as a "powerful player". Similarly with China - for example, China never (except for one case, and then there are questions), hides its gold and foreign currency reserves, publishes economic indicators that cannot be verified.... Let me be clear - "everybody lies". But China (in terms of economy and indicators) does it systematically, does it everywhere and does it in everything.
This is one of the factors that has also turned western investors and western companies away from investing in China. But the west needs convenient, profitable sites for mass production. Considering the scale of production - it should be a fairly large country, both in terms of area and population, with well-developed infrastructure and industry, with a convenient location for logistics, with a large part of the population with not very high income demands, but at the same time understanding what is production discipline and having a desire to work, stable policy and adequate legislation for investors, guarantees of inviolability of private business, etc.. Perhaps some indicators will be a bit offensive, but the reality is so. Question - does anyone have options other than India ?   

[poodle63]

One thing I know for certain is that I don’t trust the economic data that comes out of China. China constantly lies about their economic production, among all sorts of other economic numbers, and I simply don’t trust anything that comes out of that nation. They’ve had an economic issue with “ghost cities” for well over a decade now which is majorly hurting their economy and it’s something that aren’t super open about. I could definitely see India taking over in the east.

india needs to up their infrastructure and they'll thrive, so many big companies looking for country for their product manufacturing but many deemed insufficient with the lack of human resources and also good infrastructure for shipping, etc.
if india could pull that off, then they could get many company from around the globe to flock onto their manufacturing. Right now india already have apple manufacturing their products in India and thats already good enough.
right now for the many manufacturing company that trying to "change" south east asia and india is the place that they'd invest other than china.
hopefully many other countries that was not economically blooming, could bloom with this economic war, taking advantage of the needs of manufacturing.

[Sebas.tian]

Nope, and it will take a few more decades for India to achieve the manufacturing ability of China.

But Western countries realized it years back and that is why they have been moving their part of manufacturing plants to India since post Covid era. For example, Apple invested and started their manufacturing plants in India so that in the future they won't be trapped under China's monopoly but as of now most of the core level technology is still imported from China to India for example semiconductors and over time things may change.

China are improving in the aspect of production, which many countries of the world has confirmed it that China are potential in the area of economy growth compared to India that are still struggles to improve their economy based on the pandemic that collapsed their economy few years ago to caused high inflation in their land. Since China leaders and citizens came together to fight corruption that has been disturbing their economy growth over years, and Many things they where using be imported from India, because India where make a huge amount of money from those things they where imported to china until China leaders begin to work for the favour of their country by sending some people to other countries of the world to learn so many things that will bring progress to their land. If you look at the developed countries in the world today, China are among them because they have planted so many things that is generating incomes to their country today.

[icalical]

Well, I think in the South part of Asia India has been an economic leader for a while now, their huge population was really a good lift for their economy, but not only that India has demographic bonus, but their government also make good improvement in their industry, and research and tech. The only think that lacks is the well-being of Indian people, their live quality is barely improving because the fierce competition, but if the economic projection and improvement keep in this track it will eventually improved.

However, I don't think they could replace China, China's development is more rapid than India, and don't forget about Korea, I think India need to beat Korea first before they try to replace China.

[DrBeer]

So the question is - what do you think about India's potential, opportunities and prospects, in light of the idea of India becoming at least the economical "Head of the Global South", and possibly "one of the poles of the world system" ?

India definitely has a lot of potential to become a strong country in the future, they have the highest population in the world and geographical good position between the west and the east. USA would like for India to become the counterweight against China in Asia. The decoupling by western countries of China is bringing a lot benefits for India. The real question is if this is going to be enough to overtake China in the long run. Personally I am a bit sceptical because India has a lot of problems of their own. Especially the rivalry with Pakistan, another high population country, is going to generate a lot of tension in the future. China's rivals are all very small except for USA and they can use more financial leverage to get their ways. In my opinion India is going to show high growth rates in the future, but it's not going to be high enough to overtake China. Western countries have too many own problems to afford building up India completely.

A few basic talking points about China:
- It's a "colossus on clay feet." On legs - held up by EXPORT.
- China is built either on Western technology or on stolen Western technology
- China is built on Western investment and fundraising
- China has changed its vector from communist-capitalist to communist-totalitarian, with elements of opposition to the developed, progressive west.

I.e. a set of listed symptoms, which speaks of a severe and systemic disease of the economy.
And "the holy place is never empty" ! And India, deprived of the above-mentioned problems of China, if desired, will replace China!
Yes, India is not an ideal country (which does not exist, except in fairy tales), yes, there are problems. But India has potential and chooses the path of development rather than degradation ! And this is the way of mutually beneficial building not only economic but also political ties and processes. The West needs an adequate partner within the framework of the "Global South", which will control order there, cost favorable relations, and will guarantee order in the region. Therefore, I do not see any obstacles for India to replace the declining, in all respects, China!

[Sithara007]

The advantage with India is that wages are quite low when compared to China. But at the same time, the taxes are quite high, regulations are complicated and productivity of staff is low. Factory workers in India are usually paid around $300 per month if they are on company roll. But a lot of corporations hire contract workers, who are paid only around half of this amount ($150 per month). On the other hand, in China factory workers are being paid around $900 per month or higher. The difference is huge and this attracts a lot of manufacturers to India. But the situation can change rapidly.

Also, Indian workers are not very disciplined and every now and then there are reports of strikes in factories. There was one infamous incident in Manesar when the workers at the Maruti factory rioted and burnt to death a HR executive. More than a hundred workers were charged for this crime, but at the end everyone were acquitted due to lack of evidence.

[DrBeer]

Well, I think in the South part of Asia India has been an economic leader for a while now, their huge population was really a good lift for their economy, but not only that India has demographic bonus, but their government also make good improvement in their industry, and research and tech. The only think that lacks is the well-being of Indian people, their live quality is barely improving because the fierce competition, but if the economic projection and improvement keep in this track it will eventually improved.

However, I don't think they could replace China, China's development is more rapid than India, and don't forget about Korea, I think India need to beat Korea first before they try to replace China.

Investments and new plants and factories, warehouses and logistics - all this will give a huge number of jobs. It should be understood that there will be a lot of work for both specialists and people without knowledge and experience, which will raise the incomes of the poorest strata of the population. It is global investment projects, such as the relocation of assembly sites for major Western electronics manufacturers, that make it possible to revitalize cities and entire regions. One large "assembly factory" requires a huge number of additional services and services, which gives an impetus to the development of "related" businesses and provides many more jobs. Therefore - the arrival of Western manufacturers in India - will not only benefit the country, but will also improve the condition of some regions, breathing life into them, giving jobs and prospects.

By the way, one of the problems of China, because of which it is losing the status of "world factory" - the growth of staff pay. For example, 10 years ago a person on the assembly line was ready to work for 500 dollars, but today no one will go there for less than 3000 dollars (the figures are taken just for example). And this means that the cost of production starts to grow and ceases to be competitive if we talk about Chinese products, or the cost of production becomes less attractive to the customer who placed the production. India will have at least 10-20 years before such a scenario, at least - firstly due to a larger population, secondly due to population growth. China is losing population growth and is actively "aging".