Buy Buy Buy or Sell Sell Sell?

[Gallar]

Yes you are right friend, but in my opinion it is not only the DCA technique that will make long-term investors in bitcoin potentially profitable, but other buying methods I think will be equally profitable if hodl in the long run.

DCA method has absolutely nothing to do with your future profit, is just a strategy meant for bitcoin accumulation this strategy is mostly used by those new Investors and also those that can't afford to buy in lump. Moreover some people feel that doing the DCA is less stress than buying in lump since DCA gives them the opportunity to buy with any amount, The only different between this two method is that a guy who is buying in lump is always faster than the  DCA Guy that's depending on your weekly purchase, but that doesn't mean that a guy who is buying in lump sum will be more profitable than the DCA Guy. Moreover your investment goal May be different from the guy that is buying in lump.

It is true, DCA is just a buying strategy and I have also explained that it is not only with the DCA strategy that makes someone successful when investing in bitcoin. Because I have emphasized, that it is the long-term HODL that will make someone potentially profitable when investing in bitcoin.

In addition, if you say that DCA is mostly used by novice investors only, I don't think that's right. Because basically bitcoin investors who have been in it for a long time also use a lot of DCA buying strategies. So with that, I think your assumption may be incorrect in this case. And not a few people who are able to invest in bitcoin at once, decide to do DCA too. Because basically DCA is a scaled purchase which of course it will further optimize our bitcoin purchases.

[Jostern]

So I did lump sum some time back, but personally I feel now (hindsight?) that splitting the same amount into a DCA would have been a more effective approach.

I bought in Nov '24, as a lumpsum. Then in Jan/Feb I was happy but in Feb we got a bit of a dip - right up until April.

Conversely if I'd done a small amount in Nov, then bought DCA below my last buy price I think I'd have made a bundle more.

You did a good thing by front loading your Bitcoin investment with a lump sum and shouldn't regret why you didn't split the money you used for lump sum into different parts and use it for DCAing, which would have given you the opportunity to buy the long dip that happened between February to April. As a newbie that's starting his Bitcoin investment, after you have front loaded your Bitcoin investment with a lump sum, you should have an ongoing DCA strategy so that you will be persistent and consistent in accumulate Bitcoin, and it will allow you to take advantage of the market and buy any dip that will occur.

Of course, I'm not saying it was a bad thing; I just felt that DCA would have given more value-per-$ that's all.

In future I'll probably split the lump sum into a smaller one-off + multiple DCAs. It's just a change of approach I guess; let's see what happens!

Actually that wouldn’t be a very bad idea as well, I think it’s very comfortable to adapt a strategy that would help you to keep buying and accumulating bitcoin for a very long terms, I would really not dispute that some investors find it very hard to approach the lump sum because of the little discretionary of income which also results to little accumulation that could well possibly be okay with accumulating with DCA.

I think their are investors who are also comfortable buying through lump sum, but if you feel you have some leverage money you could still appreciate buying lump sum and still keep buying through the DCA, at some point you might feel like you’re behind schedule in your bitcoin investment journey and you’ll want to buy through lump sum and front load as well, which will not be a very bad idea.

[7juju]

~snip~

Of course, I'm not saying it was a bad thing; I just felt that DCA would have given more value-per-$ that's all.

In future I'll probably split the lump sum into a smaller one-off + multiple DCAs. It's just a change of approach I guess; let's see what happens!

We learn every day and we learn how to do things differently as we become more acquainted and conversant with the process and the methods involved. I believe when you started your accumulation journey, if someone had told you to buy your bitcoin with DCA you wouldn't have accepted. You wouldn't have seen the difference between dca and other methods back then, but now that you have learnt it on your own and saw how DCA have the edge over others methods, you will never forget this experience. Now if you have the opportunity to advise newbies in the future who are about starting their bitcoin accumulation journey, you will explain to them with full conviction why they should start accumulation with dca method, as you have had a first hand experience yourself.

[Theupdude]

If you invest in Bitcoin for a long time, the chances of profit will certainly increase a lot, but for this you should follow the DCA method to invest in Bitcoin. Then you will definitely be able to profit, if you invest in Bitcoin according to the DCA method, it is definitely possible to maintain your Bitcoin investment for a long time. So far, everyone who has successfully invested in Bitcoin for a long time is currently experiencing profit.
However, Bitcoin investment should be estimated at least up to two halving times (maybe 8 to 12 years or up to 15 years), it is best.

Of course, if you invest in Bitcoin for a long time, the chances of making profit in the future are very high, but we should always remember that investing in Bitcoin also involves risks, and we should not encourage anyone to invest in Bitcoin with the belief that future profit is guaranteed. Though we believe that its future will be very great, because if you observe those who have been investing in Bitcoin for a very long time now, at least in the last 5 to 10 years, it’s obvious that they are in good profit due to its current value.

The DCA method is the best strategy to invest in Bitcoin for a long time, because with this method you will accumulate as much as you can afford without affecting your other responsibilities. When people think about Bitcoin investment, I believe they should think about long-term holding, because from those investing for the past 5 years now, it’s proven that you can only be in huge profit while holding for a long time.

I want to add more detail. The history of Bitcoin knows not only those who had long-term gains but also huge losses. Like individuals that had purchased in high in 2013 or 2017 lost over 80% before the price rose again. The advantage of DCA is that it purchases in small increments over numerous cycles and thus does not buy too early or too late.

Your suggestion that you need to have at least two halvings has been substantiated by data. Every halving alters both supply and demand and generally drives bitcoin to greater prices, although it may take a year or longer to manifest. During the low or bad times, people that panic sell often fail to get the huge profits. In fact, those who made the highest returns were those individuals who purchased at a low point in the market rather than at a time when the news was very good in the headlines.

However, the dangers should not be forgotten. Bitcoin is unpredictable and its functionality can be altered by rules, the rate at which people use it, or even a big economic jump. A long-term investor is supposed to invest only what he or she can hold on to in the years without having to dispose the investments when under strain.

Accordingly I agree that DCA and patience of at least one or two half cycles is effective, although good risk management and realistic expectations are required. Bitcoin rewards those who stick to it and it also punishes overconfident people.

[Sim_card]

You don't need to combine the lump sum method and the DCA method if you are not strong enough or have the capacity to do that because you can end up making a mistake or run out of discretionary income though combining the two will boost your investment and make you get to your set target quick but you need to have what it takes to carry out this because lump summing required a large and huge discretionary.  Any method you use to invest in Bitcoin will give you a reasonable value provided you are doing it well or properly.

There's no big deal to lump sum provided that your DCA is ongoing and it isn't even a most to lump sum whenever you don't have thw funds to lump sum. You are making lump sum look like it's only for the rich or that any investor on his ongoing DCA accumulation journey shouldn't lump sum because they need huge discretionary income.

You might have a discretionary income of $50 out of a weekly pay of $200 and you are using part of the $50 to DCA. That doesn't mean that if  you are lucky to be paid double salary or you were given funds as gift in an occasion or bonus and you never expected it or have serious pressing needs that you will use the money for. You can just buy bitcoin with it right away. It's not compulsory that you must always have such an amount all the time but once in a while is cool.

It's only not proper to depend only on lump sum accumulation of bitcoin to build your portfolio. That is where the problem of waiting or large amount of money to lump sum wouldn't speed up the growth of your bitcoin portfolio.

[Alonso_]

So I did lump sum some time back, but personally I feel now (hindsight?) that splitting the same amount into a DCA would have been a more effective approach.

I bought in Nov '24, as a lumpsum. Then in Jan/Feb I was happy but in Feb we got a bit of a dip - right up until April.

Conversely if I'd done a small amount in Nov, then bought DCA below my last buy price I think I'd have made a bundle more.

You did a good thing by front loading your Bitcoin investment with a lump sum and shouldn't regret why you didn't split the money you used for lump sum into different parts and use it for DCAing, which would have given you the opportunity to buy the long dip that happened between February to April. As a newbie that's starting his Bitcoin investment, after you have front loaded your Bitcoin investment with a lump sum, you should have an ongoing DCA strategy so that you will be persistent and consistent in accumulate Bitcoin, and it will allow you to take advantage of the market and buy any dip that will occur.

Of course, I'm not saying it was a bad thing; I just felt that DCA would have given more value-per-$ that's all.

In future I'll probably split the lump sum into a smaller one-off + multiple DCAs. It's just a change of approach I guess; let's see what happens!

You don't need to combine the lump sum method and the DCA method if you are not strong enough or have the capacity to do that because you can end up making a mistake or run out of discretionary income though combining the two will boost your investment and make you get to your set target quick but you need to have what it takes to carry out this because lump summing required a large and huge discretionary.  Any method you use to invest in Bitcoin will give you a reasonable value provided you are doing it well or properly.

There's nothing wrong about it especially if you are capable.

Since somehow this is good action to do especially if you can adapt well doing or combing those two strategy. Since people doing that will became flexible especially for navigating certain movements of the market or even managing their funding's.

But if they are not capable to do this then maybe they can do the basic things since DCA would provably work well without worrying about certain market scenarios.

There is definitely nothing wrong if an investor could actually do with those two investment strategies.

Like I always says I think it all depends on the amount of discretionary income that we have available, or maybe we probably have some money saved somewhere which we can decide to front load our portfolio should we feel that we are behind schedule with our investments.

I feel like it’s all a personal decision considering what actually fits us perfectly with our discretionary income available, because lump sum would actually require a whole lot more.

[HajiBagi]

I will be more interested to know that bitcoin investment is not guaranteed with profit, that is why it’s more sensible to understand that while investing in bitcoin we should aim for investing in a long term sustainable investment, which can actually help us to buy and accumulate bitcoin and hodl bitcoin for a long term, which will help us stand more chance of getting more successful bitcoin investment, I would understand when someone says profit isn’t guaranteed while investing in bitcoin, but instead it’s more profitable to invest in bitcoin for a long term investment goals.

To invest in Bitcoin for the long term, you must take some steps, for this you must follow the DCA method because Bitcoin investment is best and easiest to hold for a long time only through the DCA method. And to maintain Bitcoin investment for a long time, it definitely requires emergency funds and discretionary income, because the more you can invest in Bitcoin using the DCA method, the more you will save on your purchase price.
If you think about profit at the beginning of Bitcoin investment, then you will not be able to maintain your Bitcoin investment for a long time, so if you achieve a small benefit in the middle of Bitcoin investment, you can leave Bitcoin investment for profit. However, you should know that if you hold Bitcoin investment for a long time and wait, you will definitely be able to profit.

People who think of the profit from the beginning of bitcoin invest can't hold their bitcoin for a long term, and they are the ones that easily sell whenever they see the price is dropping because they will feel like they won't make the profit at the time they want. Bitcoin is a long term investment, and you have to put it in your mind when you want to invest that you are going to hold for a long term. It is not a bad thing to think about profit, but it will not allow you to hold for a long time because you will constantly be thinking about profit, which will prevent you from holding for a long period of time while people are enjoying their investments.

[GIF-JOBS]

I will be more interested to know that bitcoin investment is not guaranteed with profit, that is why it’s more sensible to understand that while investing in bitcoin we should aim for investing in a long term sustainable investment, which can actually help us to buy and accumulate bitcoin and hodl bitcoin for a long term, which will help us stand more chance of getting more successful bitcoin investment, I would understand when someone says profit isn’t guaranteed while investing in bitcoin, but instead it’s more profitable to invest in bitcoin for a long term investment goals.

To invest in Bitcoin for the long term, you must take some steps, for this you must follow the DCA method because Bitcoin investment is best and easiest to hold for a long time only through the DCA method. And to maintain Bitcoin investment for a long time, it definitely requires emergency funds and discretionary income, because the more you can invest in Bitcoin using the DCA method, the more you will save on your purchase price.
If you think about profit at the beginning of Bitcoin investment, then you will not be able to maintain your Bitcoin investment for a long time, so if you achieve a small benefit in the middle of Bitcoin investment, you can leave Bitcoin investment for profit. However, you should know that if you hold Bitcoin investment for a long time and wait, you will definitely be able to profit.

People who think of the profit from the beginning of bitcoin invest can't hold their bitcoin for a long term, and they are the ones that easily sell whenever they see the price is dropping because they will feel like they won't make the profit at the time they want. Bitcoin is a long term investment, and you have to put it in your mind when you want to invest that you are going to hold for a long term. It is not a bad thing to think about profit, but it will not allow you to hold for a long time because you will constantly be thinking about profit, which will prevent you from holding for a long period of time while people are enjoying their investments.

Bitcoin investment should not be thought of as a short-term profit, it should only be held for the long term, whether it gives you profit in the short term or it decreases, you cannot pay attention to it in any way, you should only think about long-term success and hold it for the long term. You should only hold it unilaterally without worrying about profit or loss, it can bring you much better success in the long term, it can bring you something bigger than your expectations, there is no guarantee, but it is highly possible, so you have to have faith in Bitcoin and hold on, then you can get the results of your patience and faith in a very big way.

[Bluedrem]

It is true, DCA is just a buying strategy and I have also explained that it is not only with the DCA strategy that makes someone successful when investing in bitcoin. Because I have emphasized, that it is the long-term HODL that will make someone potentially profitable when investing in bitcoin.

In addition, if you say that DCA is mostly used by novice investors only, I don't think that's right. Because basically bitcoin investors who have been in it for a long time also use a lot of DCA buying strategies. So with that, I think your assumption may be incorrect in this case. And not a few people who are able to invest in bitcoin at once, decide to do DCA too. Because basically DCA is a scaled purchase which of course it will further optimize our bitcoin purchases.

When do people adopt the DCA method for investment?
People adopt the DCA method for investment only when they think that they will continue to invest for a long time. That is, we can say that investors who adopt the DCA method think about investing in the long term. Because they adopt this method and invest some part of their discretionary income on a daily/weekly/monthly or sometimes yearly basis. If you imagine Bitcoin, then - suppose person A starts investing to buy 1 Bitcoin. If he does not have any one-time partner, then if he starts investing in Bitcoin at $ 200 per week with his discretionary income, then he will have to invest for a long time until he collects two Bitcoins. That is, to make the investment long-term, first of all, a target should be set and there should be a strong commitment to reach the target. At the same time, the purchase should be continued by adopting the DCA method.

[Proty]

There's nothing wrong about it especially if you are capable.

Since somehow this is good action to do especially if you can adapt well doing or combing those two strategy. Since people doing that will became flexible especially for navigating certain movements of the market or even managing their funding's.

But if they are not capable to do this then maybe they can do the basic things since DCA would provably work well without worrying about certain market scenarios.

There is definitely nothing wrong if an investor could actually do with those two investment strategies.

Like I always says I think it all depends on the amount of discretionary income that we have available, or maybe we probably have some money saved somewhere which we can decide to front load our portfolio should we feel that we are behind schedule with our investments.

I feel like it’s all a personal decision considering what actually fits us perfectly with our discretionary income available, because lump sum would actually require a whole lot more.
[/quote]
Lump sum buying simply means you are going in all at once. Putting in all your funds at once and not splitting it out that is what lump sum mean. So it is wrong to think that lump sum would require a whole lot. If you have $100 and decide to put all at once into buying bitcoin, then is still lump sum buying since you are putting in all your funds at once . You must not buy with millions or billions before you think you are doing lump sum buying.

[Tmoonz]

So I did lump sum some time back, but personally I feel now (hindsight?) that splitting the same amount into a DCA would have been a more effective approach.

I bought in Nov '24, as a lumpsum. Then in Jan/Feb I was happy but in Feb we got a bit of a dip - right up until April.

Conversely if I'd done a small amount in Nov, then bought DCA below my last buy price I think I'd have made a bundle more.

You did a good thing by front loading your Bitcoin investment with a lump sum and shouldn't regret why you didn't split the money you used for lump sum into different parts and use it for DCAing, which would have given you the opportunity to buy the long dip that happened between February to April. As a newbie that's starting his Bitcoin investment, after you have front loaded your Bitcoin investment with a lump sum, you should have an ongoing DCA strategy so that you will be persistent and consistent in accumulate Bitcoin, and it will allow you to take advantage of the market and buy any dip that will occur.

Of course, I'm not saying it was a bad thing; I just felt that DCA would have given more value-per-$ that's all.

In future I'll probably split the lump sum into a smaller one-off + multiple DCAs. It's just a change of approach I guess; let's see what happens!

You don't need to combine the lump sum method and the DCA method if you are not strong enough or have the capacity to do that because you can end up making a mistake or run out of discretionary income though combining the two will boost your investment and make you get to your set target quick but you need to have what it takes to carry out this because lump summing required a large and huge discretionary.  Any method you use to invest in Bitcoin will give you a reasonable value provided you are doing it well or properly.

There's nothing wrong about it especially if you are capable.

Since somehow this is good action to do especially if you can adapt well doing or combing those two strategy. Since people doing that will became flexible especially for navigating certain movements of the market or even managing their funding's.

But if they are not capable to do this then maybe they can do the basic things since DCA would provably work well without worrying about certain market scenarios.

There is definitely nothing wrong if an investor could actually do with those two investment strategies.

Like I always says I think it all depends on the amount of discretionary income that we have available, or maybe we probably have some money saved somewhere which we can decide to front load our portfolio should we feel that we are behind schedule with our investments.

I feel like it’s all a personal decision considering what actually fits us perfectly with our discretionary income available, because lump sum would actually require a whole lot more.

Be it Lump sum or any other strategies it must be from a discretionary income, using lump sum doesn't change the fact that the amount is still to be consider as discretionary income and of course must fit and brings that convenient and comfort that will suits our financial circumstances nothing should be done under pressure, lump sum doesn't put or requires to pressure anyone but it only requires a larger amount to be used right away by the investors decision to buy Bitcoin, no investment decisions should be impulsive as to be say being behind schedule with our investment it is not a competition and things should be done at your own pacing.

[Kagaru]

You don't need to combine the lump sum method and the DCA method if you are not strong enough or have the capacity to do that because you can end up making a mistake or run out of discretionary income though combining the two will boost your investment and make you get to your set target quick but you need to have what it takes to carry out this because lump summing required a large and huge discretionary.  Any method you use to invest in Bitcoin will give you a reasonable value provided you are doing it well or properly.

There's no big deal to lump sum provided that your DCA is ongoing and it isn't even a most to lump sum whenever you don't have thw funds to lump sum. You are making lump sum look like it's only for the rich or that any investor on his ongoing DCA accumulation journey shouldn't lump sum because they need huge discretionary income.

You might have a discretionary income of $50 out of a weekly pay of $200 and you are using part of the $50 to DCA. That doesn't mean that if  you are lucky to be paid double salary or you were given funds as gift in an occasion or bonus and you never expected it or have serious pressing needs that you will use the money for. You can just buy bitcoin with it right away. It's not compulsory that you must always have such an amount all the time but once in a while is cool.

It's only not proper to depend only on lump sum accumulation of bitcoin to build your portfolio. That is where the problem of waiting or large amount of money to lump sum wouldn't speed up the growth of your bitcoin portfolio.

This is a good point. Most new investors mistakenly believe that they have to either choose between DCA and a lump sum but both can be used jointly in different circumstances. DCA is excellent since it instils discipline and adherence to a plan devoid of emotion. However, when you receive a bonus, tax refund or gift out of the blue, you can invest everything in a single instance provided that it does not affect your basic needs.

We can see that individuals who tend to invest a lump sum when the market declines drastically, which was the case with Bitcoin when it dropped down to below 4,000 in March 2020, recorded increased growth as compared to those who utilised DCA only. In the meantime the people who waited to eat at the optimal point in time tend to miss. The balance is relevant: continue to do DCA but with the additional cash when the opportunity presents itself.

The actual danger is the use of lump sums only, as they require huge windfalls or additional cash. DCA is a foundation and lump sums are mere enhancers when the time arises.

[I_Anime]

Ive been hearing about situations where someone buys a coin for a certain rate and not quite long after,  the said coin drops in value, or  someone sells his coin for a certain rate and then it appreciates just after.
What's your take on this? Given the period we're in is it buy time or sell time?

I don't really know what exactly you are asking but I think you wanted to ask what will be someone's move in situation like this and the answer is, assuming the coin you are referring to is Bitcoin, as an investor you don't need to sell if after investing the price went up and you don't need to also sell if the price went down after Investing rather what you should do in this case as an investor is to keep on buying and holding using the DCA method and also double up when there is dip and you have a good discretionary. Taking or selling your profit if Bitcoin surges after you just invested is not the right thing to do and that's what traders does because what you stand to gain in the future is so much compare with what you will take immediately.

Is very simple once you start your bitcoin investment, focus on accumulating and securing your assets . Is not easy but following the right principle will help secure a smooth sailing investment.

And they will be a lot of up and down movement but still don’t sell , unless you have gotten enough bitcoin. Then you will start to think about finding means on you be taken profits because you are not just investing cause you want to throw away your money is because you are looking for something that will sustain in a long run .

[Grace333]

Ive been hearing about situations where someone buys a coin for a certain rate and not quite long after,  the said coin drops in value, or  someone sells his coin for a certain rate and then it appreciates just after.
What's your take on this? Given the period we're in is it buy time or sell time?

I don't really know what exactly you are asking but I think you wanted to ask what will be someone's move in situation like this and the answer is, assuming the coin you are referring to is Bitcoin, as an investor you don't need to sell if after investing the price went up and you don't need to also sell if the price went down after Investing rather what you should do in this case as an investor is to keep on buying and holding using the DCA method and also double up when there is dip and you have a good discretionary. Taking or selling your profit if Bitcoin surges after you just invested is not the right thing to do and that's what traders does because what you stand to gain in the future is so much compare with what you will take immediately.

Is very simple once you start your bitcoin investment, focus on accumulating and securing your assets . Is not easy but following the right principle will help secure a smooth sailing investment.

And they will be a lot of up and down movement but still don’t sell , unless you have gotten enough bitcoin. Then you will start to think about finding means on you be taken profits because you are not just investing cause you want to throw away your money is because you are looking for something that will sustain in a long run .

True, the main thing is really about consistency and discipline. Bitcoin will always test your patience with those constant ups and downs, but that is the real game, knowing when to just keep holding and keep accumulating little by little. Selling too early has ruined a lot of people because they lose sight of the bigger picture.

For me, I believe the goal shouldn’t just be to chase quick profits but to build something that can truly sustain you in the long run, like you said…

[Jewan420]

True, the main thing is really about consistency and discipline. Bitcoin will always test your patience with those constant ups and downs, but that is the real game, knowing when to just keep holding and keep accumulating little by little. Selling too early has ruined a lot of people because they lose sight of the bigger picture.

For me, I believe the goal shouldn’t just be to chase quick profits but to build something that can truly sustain you in the long run, like you said…

It is important to build your investment foundation strongly rather than quickly. For this, you need to be consistent and disciplined. You may lose your investment fund one day or be forced to sell it due to chasing your goals faster than you can afford. Keep investing as much as you can, but it has to be consistent. Consistency is very important especially when you are in a long-term competition. In a long-term competition, being too fast can be the cause of your failure, because if you surpass yourself at the beginning, you may not be able to reach the finish line (achievement of the goal), you may be forced to leave the competition before that.

In long-term investment, it is also important to be consistent and disciplined in investing rather than trying to achieve goals quickly. Always try to invest within your means and always be disciplined. Whenever you rush, your risk starts to increase, hurry but from within you.

[JayJuanGee]

So I did lump sum some time back, but personally I feel now (hindsight?) that splitting the same amount into a DCA would have been a more effective approach.
I bought in Nov '24, as a lumpsum. Then in Jan/Feb I was happy but in Feb we got a bit of a dip - right up until April.

Conversely if I'd done a small amount in Nov, then bought DCA below my last buy price I think I'd have made a bundle more.

You did a good thing by front loading your Bitcoin investment with a lump sum and shouldn't regret why you didn't split the money you used for lump sum into different parts and use it for DCAing, which would have given you the opportunity to buy the long dip that happened between February to April. As a newbie that's starting his Bitcoin investment, after you have front loaded your Bitcoin investment with a lump sum, you should have an ongoing DCA strategy so that you will be persistent and consistent in accumulate Bitcoin, and it will allow you to take advantage of the market and buy any dip that will occur.

Of course, I'm not saying it was a bad thing; I just felt that DCA would have given more value-per-$ that's all.

In future I'll probably split the lump sum into a smaller one-off + multiple DCAs. It's just a change of approach I guess; let's see what happens!

None of us has any fucking clue what the BTC price is going to do in the future, so if we front load our investment, we need to be prepared that the price might move against us.. and surely in the end, as long as we kept buying, then any error in our decision in January-ish of 2025 would have resolved itself with the BTC price returning back above $100k in May-ish and then so far mostly staying above $110k in July-ish.

If we are really thinking long term then it likely is not going to matter too much, and we may well end up making various mistakes along the way that causes our average cost per BTC to be higher, yet it still seems more important to gather more BTC and have higher costs rather than getting worked up about costs and then ending up with way fewer BTC, and there are quite a few examples in history in which the persistent BTC accumulators ended up out accumulating folks of similar (or even better finances) due to their persistence, consistency, regularity and even their aggressiveness in stacking through ongoing buying of BTC.

~snip~

Of course, I'm not saying it was a bad thing; I just felt that DCA would have given more value-per-$ that's all.

In future I'll probably split the lump sum into a smaller one-off + multiple DCAs. It's just a change of approach I guess; let's see what happens!

We learn every day and we learn how to do things differently as we become more acquainted and conversant with the process and the methods involved. I believe when you started your accumulation journey, if someone had told you to buy your bitcoin with DCA you wouldn't have accepted. You wouldn't have seen the difference between dca and other methods back then, but now that you have learnt it on your own and saw how DCA have the edge over others methods, you will never forget this experience. Now if you have the opportunity to advise newbies in the future who are about starting their bitcoin accumulation journey, you will explain to them with full conviction why they should start accumulation with dca method, as you have had a first hand experience yourself.

Personally, I think that nestex did the right thing by lump sum buying to get some stake in the game.. yet there is still a matter of how much to lump sum, especially when the BTC price is moving up, which it has been largely doing since November 2022, and perhaps more so since October 2023..

I think that nestex's error was not holding any back money and not being being sufficiently financially and/or mentally prepared for the BTC price to go down rather than going up.  He stocked too much mentality and finances into the BTC price going up, and maybe if he had not invested as much and the BTC price ended up going up versus down, then he would have also been upset with himself since he did not predict the direction of the BTC price.

In fact there is no winning with expecting too much in regards to the direction of the BTC price, which is part of the reason that when we are newbies, we likely have to spend somewhere close to a whole cycle just accumulating bitcoin ongoingly without thinking about the price.  Get our cashflow management systems into a good state, and develop some strong habits, and reassess the building of our bitcoin stash from time to time, and yeah, in the first 4 years it might seem that it is taking a while to grow, but as long as our bitcoin stash is still growing, then we likely will end up putting ourselves into good places by the time we get one cycle and maybe even two cycles into it.. without fucking things up.  Personally, I am not claiming that building an investment into bitcoin and also strengthening our own cashflow management systems and practices is easy, and we might not even start to have confidence in what we are doing until 1 or 2 cycles into the process of doing it ongoingly during that time..

[edited out]

I want to add more detail. The history of Bitcoin knows not only those who had long-term gains but also huge losses. Like individuals that had purchased in high in 2013 or 2017 lost over 80% before the price rose again. The advantage of DCA is that it purchases in small increments over numerous cycles and thus does not buy too early or too late.

Your suggestion that you need to have at least two halvings has been substantiated by data. Every halving alters both supply and demand and generally drives bitcoin to greater prices, although it may take a year or longer to manifest. During the low or bad times, people that panic sell often fail to get the huge profits. In fact, those who made the highest returns were those individuals who purchased at a low point in the market rather than at a time when the news was very good in the headlines.
However, the dangers should not be forgotten. Bitcoin is unpredictable and its functionality can be altered by rules, the rate at which people use it, or even a big economic jump. A long-term investor is supposed to invest only what he or she can hold on to in the years without having to dispose the investments when under strain.

Accordingly I agree that DCA and patience of at least one or two half cycles is effective, although good risk management and realistic expectations are required. Bitcoin rewards those who stick to it and it also punishes overconfident people.

You have a reasonable assessment Theupdude, even though I question your assessment that there is some value in trying to figure out the bottom, since anyone who bought bitcoin, even if they started at the top, had done quite well by remaining persistent in their buying, and many time guys have no fucking clue which way the BTC price is going to go.. which continues to be the case with bitcoin ongoingly growing and as you suggest, various network effects ongoingly growing.

By the way, you are only registered on the forum since April, so have you been accumulating bitcoin (and speaking from experience) longer than your forum registration, since it seems a bit more difficult to assess your own experience and your own plan from what you believe happened to others in the past, even though surely we can learn from others, and your emphasizing DCA seems to be heading in the right direction.. even though DCA might not completely fit the situation of everyone.. even though anyone can use it or supplement other strategies into a DCA plan/practice.

[philipma1957]

they key is:

short term no on knows what btc will do hourly daily weekly even monthly.

but.

2009 to 2019 up
2010 to 2020 up
2011 to 2021 up
2012 to 2022 up
2013 to 2023 up
2014 to 2024 up
2015 to 2025 up


that record remains perfect

[Gallar]

they key is:

short term no on knows what btc will do hourly daily weekly even monthly.

but.

2009 to 2019 up
2010 to 2020 up
2011 to 2021 up
2012 to 2022 up
2013 to 2023 up
2014 to 2024 up
2015 to 2025 up


that record remains perfect

Yes, that's why we should invest long-term in Bitcoin, not just be traders who hold Bitcoin for a short time. If we invest long-term, I think Bitcoin's record price has given us a clear indication that Bitcoin won't disappoint those who invest long-term. But honestly, I'm curious to see if many people who owned Bitcoin between 2010 and 2012 are still holding it today. Honestly, holding Bitcoin since then isn't easy. If I'm not mistaken, Bitcoin's price was incredibly low at the time. So, even if the price increased fivefold or tenfold, I'm sure people who didn't understand Bitcoin's potential would have sold their Bitcoins. But for investors with sharp instincts and who understand Bitcoin's long-term potential, I think they would have succeeded in holding Bitcoin. So, I think this should be a lesson for us: we must be patient in holding Bitcoin and not let our focus be distracted by temporary gains.

[Samlucky O]

they key is:

short term no on knows what btc will do hourly daily weekly even monthly.

but.

2009 to 2019 up
2010 to 2020 up
2011 to 2021 up
2012 to 2022 up
2013 to 2023 up
2014 to 2024 up
2015 to 2025 up


that record remains perfect

Definitely bitcoin has been up right from the oncept, although we have had several corrections and dip and bearish season, but non can be compared to its bullish season. bitcoin has been up always and we are hoping for more greater heights. even though JJG made this statement that None of us has any fucking clue what the BTC price is going to do in the future, so if we front load our investment, we need to be prepared that the price might move against us.. this  doesn't mean that bitcoin will not do fine, but just to keep our mind prepared for the worst case scenario. this means that as we expect the good we should also expect the bad or worst in anticipation, so that we wouldn't be much affected is such situation if it happens in any way, even though such will not happen.

[Barikui1]

they key is:

short term no on knows what btc will do hourly daily weekly even monthly.

but.

2009 to 2019 up
2010 to 2020 up
2011 to 2021 up
2012 to 2022 up
2013 to 2023 up
2014 to 2024 up
2015 to 2025 up


that record remains perfect

Definitely bitcoin has been up right from the oncept, although we have had several corrections and dip and bearish season, but non can be compared to its bullish season. bitcoin has been up always and we are hoping for more greater heights. even though JJG made this statement that None of us has any fucking clue what the BTC price is going to do in the future, so if we front load our investment, we need to be prepared that the price might move against us.. this  doesn't mean that bitcoin will not do fine, but just to keep our mind prepared for the worst case scenario. this means that as we expect the good we should also expect the bad or worst in anticipation, so that we wouldn't be much affected is such situation if it happens in any way, even though such will not happen.

Yea, I think that sir jayjuangee is actually right, I believe that why he is saying so is because as a Bitcoin investor, it's very wrong to go all in on your investment, invest with only what you can afford to lose because in as much as Bitcoin has a promising future, nothing is guaranteed since we live in a world full of uncertainty, but that's by the way.
But looking at the historical price movement of Bitcoin, it shows that it's on the rise and their is a higher probability that it might go as high as a million dollar or more in the future, that's why constant accumulation is greatly encouraged because your stash of Bitcoin is what's going to determine how profitable and successful you might be in the future.