Profiting from BTC: just luck?

[Vincom]

Introduced in 2008 by Satoshi Nakamoto, BTC was envisioned as a new global currency for the internet age ^[1]. While Satoshi intended for widespread adoption, BTC has primarily become a store of value. While I believe everyone should have access to Bitcoin, with its open network allowing anyone to create an account and transact, it's important to acknowledge that profiting from BTC may not be the chance for everyone.

Throughout Bitcoin's history, periods of thrilling price surges have been followed by sharp corrections. During these downturns, also known as crypto winters, Bitcoin's price has fallen by a staggering 77% to 93% compared to its previous peak. In simpler terms, the price has dropped 4-10 times. These harsh winters act as a crucible, testing the resolve of Bitcoin holders. Those who remain confident in Bitcoin's long-term potential, often referred to as "diamond hands," are contrasted with those who hate BTC, or "anti-fans."

Michel Saylor, the CEO of MicroStrategy, has become a well-known figure in the cryptocurrency world. He is credited with leading MicroStrategy's strategy of accumulating Bitcoin since 2020, which has resulted in a significant profit for the company: over $6 billion from its 193K BTC budget ^[2]. Additionally, the company's MSTR stock price has seen a substantial increase: over 800% in 3.5 years. However, Saylor's approach has also attracted criticism in the media in 2022 ^[3].

Even more famous than Michal Saylor is Nayib Bukele, the president of El Salvador, the first country in the world to accept Bitcoin (BTC) as legal tender alongside the US dollar in 2021 ^[4]. In addition to helping people access financial services without relying on banks, reducing transaction and remittance costs, and attracting tourists and foreign investment, the reserve of 2,380 BTC accumulated through mining and DCAing BTC has also helped El Salvador earn a profit of over 40% ^[5]. However, we also cannot forget that in 2022, Nayib Bukele and the El Salvador government faced criticism daily from a range of critics, from large organizations to individual market participants, on financial news sites, social networks, and YouTube ^[6]. I believe that Nayib Bukele has taken a risk with his entire political career to bring El Salvador into the Bitcoin era, and he is fully deserving of being re-elected president of El Salvador to contribute more in the next term ^[7].

Nayib Bukele: “When Bitcoin’s market price was low, they wrote literally thousands of articles about our supposed losses. Now that Bitcoin’s market price is way up, if we were to sell, we would make a profit of over 40% (just from the market purchases), and our main source of BTC is now our citizenship program”.

Major media outlets can be seen as capitalizing on both positive and negative aspects of Bitcoin (BTC) to capture readers' attention. For instance, The New York Times frequently reports on recent BTC price surges ^[8]. However, during the 2022 crypto winter, they also published an article exploring the link between cryptocurrency investment and the "dark tetrad" personality traits: narcissism, Machiavellianism, psychopathy, and sadism ^[9].

Holding Bitcoin (BTC) long-term requires resilience, as the market can be volatile. While some humorously say "the best way to hold BTC is to go to jail" (meaning you're forced to hold), even strong believers can find it difficult during periods of decline.

For me, holding BTC is not a coincidence, it is a rational choice!

I want to know your opinion on the success of BTC holders:

• Is the profit of BTC holders just from luck?
• Are you a BTC holder? What makes you keep believing and holding BTC?
• When will you hold BTC until?

References:
[1] Satoshi - Sirius emails 2009-2011
[2] MicroStrategy's Michael Saylor Made $1.2 Billion In 3 Days Following Bitcoin Boom
[3] Michael Saylor Bet Billions on Bitcoin and Lost
[4] El Salvador To Make Bitcoin Legal Tender: A Milestone In Monetary History
[5] El Salvador Bitcoin holdings hit record $164M as BTC profits pass $50M
[6] El Salvador’s bitcoin experiment: $60 million lost, $375 million spent, little to show so far
[7] Nayib Bukele re-elected as El Salvador president in landslide win
[8] New York Time: Bitcoin
[9] Bitcoin fans are psychopaths who don’t care about anyone, study shows

[GreatArkansas]

I want to know your opinion on the success of BTC holders:

• Is the profit of BTC holders just from luck?
• Are you a BTC holder? What makes you keep believing and holding BTC?
• When will you hold BTC until?

1. No, everything has a reason and we worked on it. So we deserve it.
2. Yes, I am indeed Bitcoin holder since day 1
3. I think for me, forever. I hold Bitcoin multiple bear markets and multiple bull markets and I still hold them until now. At the same time, I can use my Bitcoin as an emergency fund, just incase whatever happens.

[Hatchy]

I want to know your opinion on the success of BTC holders:

• Is the profit of BTC holders just from luck?
• Are you a BTC holder? What makes you keep believing and holding BTC?
• When will you hold BTC until?

Luck? Luck does play a role in market changes, but making profits from holding isn't about luck. It's about being willing to hold onto your investments for a long time. Holding onto investments, especially with Bitcoin, can be challenging because you might feel tempted to sell when you see others making quick gains.

As a long term holder, it's important to not worry too much about short term market changes. This mindset helps prevent you from selling your coins at the wrong time. Bitcoin has seen so many ups and downs like in 2021 when it reached its previous all time high and then experienced a downturn. This downturn might have led many long term holders to sell out of fear of uncertain doubt(FUD), fear of missing out(FOMO).

These types of holders are what I call "weak." As a holder, you shouldn't be swayed by short-term market trends. Bitcoin's unique qualities, like its limited supply of 21 million coins, attract investors who understand the principles of supply and demand. When a product is limited or scares, its price tends to rise due to increased demand and limited supply.

In the future, Bitcoin will likely become even more valuable. Understanding Bitcoin's market trends and its scarcity makes holding onto it a smart investment choice.

[Darker45]

There's luck, of course, but it isn't purely just that. When I entered crypto several years ago, there were many of us. In a way, we were lucky because Bitcoin was cheaper. Top altcoins were also cheap. We also made money during the height of the ICO craze.

But then here comes financial management. Many failed in this aspect. Some friends who made a lot of money in those early days are now mere employees.

And then there's also the factor of emotions especially after the bull run in 2017. I know of some individuals who panicked and sold much, if not all, of their Bitcoin in 2018. Some even left Bitcoin for good. It isn't just emotions, of course. Risk tolerance, wrong appreciation of Bitcoin, miscalculation of events, wrong predictions and sentiments, and so on and so forth were also at play. Some could have analyzed but were mistaken.

Generally, I consider myself lucky because there's Bitcoin and a loved one introduced me to it. But it certainly is not luck that I still have Bitcoin until now, that I didn't squander my profit on worthless things, that I hodled strong through the years, that I continued stacking Sats, that I didn't flinch regardless of how bloody the market was, and so on. It's definitely a combination of luck, conviction, understanding, responsibility, perseverance, and so forth.

[Patrol69]

How challenging it is to invest and overcome hundreds of hurdles to hold your investment for a long time is only known to those investors who invest with a long term objective and who hold their investment for a long time. When you invest many people will call you stupid and many people will laugh at your investment but when you invest successfully those same people will tell you that you are very lucky. We see such people in every society. So since I am investing myself, we should not give priority to what other people say or laugh about my investment, we should only stick to our own decisions. When we overcome hundreds of hurdles and keep investing by accepting all challenges then we will definitely get profit from investment but we should have enough patience for this profit.

[BlackBoss_]

Investment in Bitcoin is a smart investment for Intelligent Investors.

The meme is summarizing very well what has been happening with Bitcoin over years and in two latest all time highs in 2021 and 2024.


Bitcoin itself has strong intrinsic foundation to gain value but in 2024, we will have good support from US. government too. FED will have to do their tasks ordered by the White House, to cut Interest rate and more money will find new places to invest. It is a must task for FED because Biden and the White House don't want to have bad economic feeling from US. citizens that will be harmful for Biden's chance to be elected again.

In 2024, Bitcoin market is a bullish market that makes it attractive for investors who still don't know where to spend money in.

[pinggoki]

• Is the profit of BTC holders just from luck?
• Are you a BTC holder? What makes you keep believing and holding BTC?
• When will you hold BTC until?

1. Maybe the early adopters, they're really lucky because there's not a lot of people back then that are speculating too much about bitcoin getting this far in the market, it was supposed to be a P2P currency that's supposed to be used so there's no middlemen like banks and have trustless transactions.

2. I'm a BTC hodler, I've been hodling since early 2017 if my memory serves me right and the reason that I believe and still hodl bitcoin is from the fact that bitcoin never really wavered from it's detractors like Mt. Gox incidents, the SEC on their tail, and just general group of FUD spreaders and bitcoin critics saying that bitcoin is dumb and that it will go down sooner than we'd expect and bitcoin has proven them to be wrong time and time again.

3. I'll be hodling my bitcoin until bitcoin has reached the price that I want to sell those bitcoins, it's going to be taking a long time though as I've set an absurd amount for my goal so for now, I'll just keep on hodling and buying bitcoins through DCA.

[rodskee]

For me, holding BTC is not a coincidence, it is a rational choice!

I want to know your opinion on the success of BTC holders:

Let them have that thinking but for us Bitcoin investors and believers ? this is our
choice and that is when we believe in bitcoins future.

and also those who believes that this is just a luck , those are the people
who knows nothing about this market.

I will keep believing in Bitcoin and will always cherish my profit from each bull.

[ImThour]

How can it be luck when you decide to spend your funds at the spot when Bitcoin is falling like a phone from 20th floor? If I even talk about my own journey, I waited for the moment when BTC went below $20k and I spent most of my savings and earning to get as much as I could below that price. Now If it's above $60k, that's not a luck. That's the reward of my patience and my decision making when everyone else was waiting for $10k.

[Z_MBFM]

How can it be luck when you decide to spend your funds at the spot when Bitcoin is falling like a phone from 20th floor? If I even talk about my own journey, I waited for the moment when BTC went below $20k and I spent most of my savings and earning to get as much as I could below that price. Now If it's above $60k, that's not a luck. That's the reward of my patience and my decision making when everyone else was waiting for $10k.

Earning profit from Bitcoin is not a matter of luck as it is a strong asset and we all know that investing here will yield profits. Profiting from Bitcoin requires patience and the ability to hold long-term, not luck. Huge amounts of people have invested in Bitcoin and those who have been patient and invested for a long time are reaping the profits. Does this mean everyone is lucky? It's an investment and investing involves risk  So everyone has to take the risk of investing in Bitcoin but it can't be left to luck

[avikz]

Luck place a role while gambling. Everything else is planning, patience and persistence.

If you are buying Bitcoins when the Bull market is ongoing, then you are kind off gambling. But if you are actively checking the markets and investing whenever the price is below the moving average, it's planning.

Does that mean, there's no risk? Obviously not! But in planning, and investor takes calculated risk which has a higher possibility to give you a good profit.

[Die_empty]

I want to know your opinion on the success of BTC holders:

• Is the profit of BTC holders just from luck?
• Are you a BTC holder? What makes you keep believing and holding BTC?
• When will you hold BTC until?

1. Holding Bitcoin is not easy, especially for new investors. This period is filled with diverse challenges such as fear of the unknown. There are always negative events that will force you to dispose of your coins. Just like every other Investment that involves planning and risk, putting money and profiting from it is never luck. People who lack basic knowledge about Bitcoin are the ones who think that making a profit from it is luck because they don't know what investors pass through before profiting from the sector. They assume that Bitcoin is like gambling because they fail to understand that it takes planning, persistence, and sacrifice to invest.

2. The history of Bitcoin shows clearly that it is a dependable investment. There have been diverse speculations that it will not stand the test of time, but over the years it has proved critics wrong. I have seen and heard stories of individuals who have benefitted from Bitcoin because they held it for a long time. I am confident because Bitcoin is different from other coins that have lost relevance within a short period.

3. For me Bitcoin is a lifelong Investment. I will always use the DCA strategy to invest in the sector. It will always be my first Investment choice as long as I live.

[Kakmakr]

A lot of people was not around in the early days of Bitcoin amd I spot some sour grapes in their attitude towards the people who were.

Just so that people can see the whole picture, we have to consider that it took huge balls to invest in something like this, back in the day. Bitcoin was basically "illegal" back then and governments saw it as a threat to their local Fiat currencies (some still do)

You bought your coins on street corners like junkies or on platforms that was not regulated.

I take my hat off to the people who did the research and who discovered Bitcoin in the early days and still supported it, even though it was seen as something "illegal".

[NewRanger]

For me, holding BTC is not a coincidence, it is a rational choice!

Of course, it's not as shown above, if we have made a profit on BTC, yes. And you are very right in that case, where BTC is an investment whose growth is increasing and is created with strong fundamentals.

Even if anyone tries to look at something other than BTC, they have to spend more effort in project analysis because there are many factors that must be known well about the desired project, one of which is large capitalization in the market and long-term sustainability, then there will be the potential for us to make a profit. big, especially if the price of bitcoin recovers to what it is now before someone decides to enter and buy the asset.

[peter0425]

Obviously mate? the votes shows how Bitcoiners dislike that LUCK that you are calling because bitcoin is a currency and this is supported by majority of the people you asked here .
I myself do not believe about that luck in crypto investing specially in Bitcoin because maybe this can be happening in Shitcoins that sometimes it is the luck that brings us earning but not in bitcoin mate.
this has been  invented to help people not only in profiting but also to help having a great transacting experiences.

[bluebit25]

• Is the profit of BTC holders just from luck?
• Are you a BTC holder? What makes you keep believing and holding BTC?
• When will you hold BTC until?

1. In addition, we also know about the skills and beliefs to talk about the profits of investing with Bitcoin.
2. Yep, I think the conviction of the things I've been through with it and the realization of the real opportunity I found through Bitcoin.
3. I'm not sure of the exact timing, but I'm building up to a close target for bitcoin at $100,000, but I'd like to add that I'm still a fan of the long-term strategy. So always prioritize accumulating and holding more bitcoin than other assets.

[Assface16678]

Well, for me it is mixed luck and rational decision, rational decision in a sense that I decided to invest in bitcoin despite the price is too high for me, I started investing in bitcoin in the year 2020 so I'm not calling it a late entry in the market it's just I missed some good events or bull run in bitcoin, it was a big decision to me because I allocated a significant amount of money from my allowance and that's when the luck part enter because luckily from there it turns out great in a sense that I earn from holding bitcoin for long term, of course there is a times that I make bad decisions in buying bitcoin asset but it is part of the investing life, but right now that bitcoin price is rewarding us investors, I will say that me investing in bitcoin is a good decision for me, I'm just lucky because it came across my mind and take the initiative.

[alankasman]

Regarding the question in the title, for me it is not because of luck or coincidence but because of rational choices like this.

I want to know your opinion on the success of BTC holders:

• Is the profit of BTC holders just from luck?
• Are you a BTC holder? What makes you keep believing and holding BTC?
• When will you hold BTC until?

Rational choices are made on the basis of a process that contains research regarding track record, value and risks and challenges that exist there, resulting in a decision to hold Bitcoin until a certain time limit.

After making a decision, the practice of carrying it out is also not as easy as imagined. There are phases that will be passed through which are very challenging so not everyone can handle them.
Indeed, when people are able to go through all these processes, in the eyes of other people they only see the profits and victories that we achieve, but actually they never know how we went through to get to the point we wanted.

[FatFork]

Nice write-up, OP. One thing you mentioned is the media coverage. They love to focus on the extremes, good or bad.  But for most folk I'd think Bitcoin sits somewhere in the middle.  Its an investment with a lot of potential but has its fair share of unknowns too.

Here's my two sats on your questions:

• Is the profit of BTC holders just from luck?
  Yes, timing those big spikes takes some fortune tellin, so there's definitely a luck factor involved. But having a strategy matters too. If you do your homework, get the risks, and white-knuckle through the lows, that takes some guts. So, it's not all just blind luck.
  
• Are you a BTC holder?
  Yes
• When will you hold BTC until?
  Ideally, you hodl until Bitcoin reaches its full potential, whatever that may be. But everyone has different risk tolerances, so selling some for profit along the way isn't a bad idea either. Me, I have my own strategy and goals that I don't want to talk about publicly. For now, I'm focused on accumulating as much as I can, but that doesn't mean I wouldn't take some profits when the real bull run kicks in.

[blckhawk]

Well, for me it is mixed luck and rational decision, rational decision in a sense that I decided to invest in bitcoin despite the price is too high for me, I started investing in bitcoin in the year 2020 so I'm not calling it a late entry in the market it's just I missed some good events or bull run in bitcoin, it was a big decision to me because I allocated a significant amount of money from my allowance and that's when the luck part enter because luckily from there it turns out great in a sense that I earn from holding bitcoin for long term, of course there is a times that I make bad decisions in buying bitcoin asset but it is part of the investing life, but right now that bitcoin price is rewarding us investors, I will say that me investing in bitcoin is a good decision for me, I'm just lucky because it came across my mind and take the initiative.

@GreatArkansas is right, there's a reason why we profit from bitcoin so I don't think that luck is a factor in the profiting of bitcoin, it's definitely a combination of rational decision and reckless investments especially in the times that you've got the money and the price is just too damn low to pass up so you buy bitcoins without regard to the possibility that you might need that money suddenly. I guess to some of us, it is luck but you getting just right has to have some explanation out there and you just didn't know it so you say that it's all luck, I think that you invested at the right time and coincidentally it was at that time that bitcoin is on the verge of surging up.