If Chelsea's goalkeeper plays well, I think the result could be a draw because Chelsea's goalkeeper doesn't look very good, which means the ball could end up in Chelsea's net. In my opinion, Arsenal and Chelsea look evenly matched, but Arsenal is the team that can take advantage of opportunities. There is still the second leg of Chelsea vs. Arsenal. In my opinion, it is not certain that Arsenal will advance to the final because in the second leg, Arsenal could lose or concede many goals. So, in my opinion, no one knows whether Arsenal will advance to the final or not, but there is no harm in predicting that because, after all, Arsenal deserves to be favored to advance to the final. But anything can happen to Arsenal because a team's strength can fluctuate at times. However, if Arsenal loses in the second leg and concedes many goals against Chelsea, it will certainly be disappointing for Arsenal because they are so close to becoming champions if they can win in the upcoming second leg.
As you have rightfully said already, nothing is guaranteed yet, the game is still very open, why arsenal even won the game is because of the terrible defending from Chelsea, but that's football, but the reverse fixture of this game is where everything is going to be decided because Chelsea will try to do everything in their power to win this game convincingly, so that they can progress to the next round, but will that be possible?
That's what I can't tell for now because no one knows yet what may happen in that game, but as it stands now, arsenal are the clear favourite to progress to the finals of the carabao cup.