Financial Independence Retire Early [F.I.R.E]

[franky1]

another bit of advice for those pre fire but wanting to know what to expect..
(like me giving advice to my earlier self)

you will find one of the triggers of a change of mindset from blowing your load/burning money/being extravagant,, to change to refining your financial decisions to think about whats really important is:

when i sold one of my stashes of coin in 2013-14, a few cycles later looking back in hindsight i found me making the lightbulb moment realisation of "if i didnt sell XXbtc back then i would have had $£XXmillion extra now, and the xxbtc i wasted then are not worth even 0.1% of $£xxm now

this will make you change your financial plans and spending habits of making wiser decisions of whats most important to buy now, rather than delay for later

using the useless idiot of the topics example..
imagine him selling 0.01btc today for $950 to buy a couple hours of getting high with some junkies he knows
to him he thinks its a good night...

but later years when bitcoin is $1m/btc he will be thinking that the one nights wasted experience could have been saved and be used now for a $10k rager party that lasts a week or X months of living expenses in some foreign country whereby he could feel like a king due to the different cost of living of some developing country

this is where people start to wise up and make better decisions of their spending plans about what experiences mean more.. blow it now for a couple hours of getting high to impress a couple junkies.. or plan it to have a week of experiences with a better class of people or many months experiencing a totally different culture of population

i think even this topics useful idiot will agree if he had the choice of a few hours of getting high or a few months of life changing experience, he might choose the latter

[JayJuanGee]

another bit of advice for those pre fire but wanting to know what to expect..
(like me giving advice to my earlier self)
you will find one of the triggers of a change of mindset from blowing your load/burning money/being extravagant,, to change to refining your financial decisions to think about whats really important is:
when i sold one of my stashes of coin in 2013-14, a few cycles later looking back in hindsight i found me making the lightbulb moment realisation of "if i didnt sell XXbtc back then i would have had $£XXmillion extra now, and the xxbtc i wasted then are not worth even 0.1% of $£xxm now

this will make you change your financial plans and spending habits of making wiser decisions of whats most important to buy now, rather than delay for later

using the useless idiot of the topics example..
imagine him selling 0.01btc today for $950 to buy a couple hours of getting high with some junkies he knows
to him he thinks its a good night...

but later years when bitcoin is $1m/btc he will be thinking that the one nights wasted experience could have been saved and be used now for a $10k rager party that lasts a week or X months of living expenses in some foreign country whereby he could feel like a king due to the different cost of living of some developing country

this is where people start to wise up and make better decisions of their spending plans about what experiences mean more.. blow it now for a couple hours of getting high to impress a couple junkies.. or plan it to have a week of experiences with a better class of people or many months experiencing a totally different culture of population

i think even this topics useful idiot will agree if he had the choice of a few hours of getting high or a few months of life changing experience, he might choose the latter

There may be regrets of spending too many bitcoin too soon, yet if you have more than enough bitcoin, you can budget how many bitcoin you are able to spend without ever running out.  That is one of the great things about bitcoin, at least historically bitcoin has appreciated greater than other assets, so it has had the potential of allowing you to spend more and still be better off as compared to having your money in traditional investments where your withdrawal rate may well be around 4%, yet in bitcoin you might be able to have up to a 10% withdrawal rate and still do better.

So for example, maybe the first few years on FIRE (or fuck you status), you might choose to restrict yourself to spending 4% of your bitcoin stash per year,, and so perhaps you have reached around $1 million in bitcoin in 2017, which would be around 300 BTC, and so you make the mistake of using BTC's spot price to measure going on fuck you status (or going into FIRE), yet you are concerned about whether it is going to be good for so you plan to withdraw $3,333 per month.   So you start out with those 300 BTC, and withdrawing at 4%, and still that withdrawal rate would have ONLY caused you to withdraw around 77.5 BTC up until now, which still leaves you with 222.5 BTC, so surely somewhere along the way that you could have lived at some higher levels of spending, and even if you had doubled your BTC withdrawal rate to 8% per year, you would have had still ended up with still having 165 BTC right now, so showing that you would have had sent just under half of your stash right around 135 BTC, and surely you can play around with the numbers yourself in terms of seeing how much you are able to spend with BTC, and especially if you reach a certain high enough BTC stash size.   I have my doubts about needs to have regrets about having had bought hookers, lambos and blow at earlier dates as long as the quantity of BTC being spent was within the already determined to be sustainable budget.

[mindrust]

To give you an idea, it's not that much compared to all of you in here but I can say that hopefully when BTC hits the ceiling, I can say that I can live with my life with less pressure…

That’s a good goal, congrats but I believe the FIRE stuff was originally about collecting dividend stocks which produce a somewhat reliable cash income.

Of course you can invest in coffee beans and still become FIRE if it works for you.

But having to sell your bitcoins might not be the best idea whether you become FIRE or not. Or maybe, you want to invest only in btc and later you want to allocate some of your btc to the dividend stocks when your btc stash hits a certain amount against the USD but then you won’t have any experience in the stock market when that time comes and you will look like a fish out of the ocean which means you’ll make mistakes and lose money.

Or you might try to become a real estate king like Donald after you get rich from btc. It will also generate good cash flow but the bad part is, it is a business which you’ll have to manage. Talk to the tenants, fix the properties etc… Dividend stocks bring much less headache. What could go wrong with KO for example unless they make everyone cancer or diabetic and guess what they actually do and nobody cares (poor J&J and 3M had to go through that lawsuit nightmare and they still operate!)

The point is, I am not sure if depending on only btc is a good idea. You might also want to plant seeds in other farms while it is early. You don’t wanna be late there as much as you don’t wanna be late at bitcoin. Getting rich is easier than most people think. Managing and keeping your riches is a way difficult task.

Also understanding the legacy markets (stock and real estate) gives you a much better understanding of finance than investing only in bitcoin.

Many people who got rich from bitcoin were already nearly rich because they were already invested in stocks. Don’t miss that point. If you become successful at the stock market, you will kill it at bitcoin markets. Ez pz.

[JayJuanGee]

To give you an idea, it's not that much compared to all of you in here but I can say that hopefully when BTC hits the ceiling, I can say that I can live with my life with less pressure…

That’s a good goal, congrats but I believe the FIRE stuff was originally about collecting dividend stocks which produce a somewhat reliable cash income.

Of course you can invest in coffee beans and still become FIRE if it works for you.

But having to sell your bitcoins might not be the best idea whether you become FIRE or not. Or maybe, you want to invest only in btc and later you want to allocate some of your btc to the dividend stocks when your btc stash hits a certain amount against the USD but then you won’t have any experience in the stock market when that time comes and you will look like a fish out of the ocean which means you’ll make mistakes and lose money.

Or you might try to become a real estate king like Donald after you get rich from btc. It will also generate good cash flow but the bad part is, it is a business which you’ll have to manage. Talk to the tenants, fix the properties etc… Dividend stocks bring much less headache. What could go wrong with KO for example unless they make everyone cancer or diabetic and guess what they actually do and nobody cares (poor J&J and 3M had to go through that lawsuit nightmare and they still operate!)

The point is, I am not sure if depending on only btc is a good idea. You might also want to plant seeds in other farms while it is early. You don’t wanna be late there as much as you don’t wanna be late at bitcoin. Getting rich is easier than most people think. Managing and keeping your riches is a way difficult task.

Also understanding the legacy markets (stock and real estate) gives you a much better understanding of finance than investing only in bitcoin.

Many people who got rich from bitcoin were already nearly rich because they were already invested in stocks. Don’t miss that point. If you become successful at the stock market, you will kill it at bitcoin markets. Ez pz.

Let's say that a guy had accumulated bitcoin until March 2020, and he got up to 10 BTC, yet then he got frustrated with bitcoin, so he decided to start to cash out 4% of his bitcoin per year, and so if he had followed such a cashing out, he would have had cashed out right about 1.76 BTC over the past nearly 5 years, and he would still have 8.24 BTC, and so maybe at this point he could stick with a 4% cash out rate, or maybe he could move up to a 10% cash out rate?  I  think that either one is sustainable, yet the lower cash out rate will certainly allow the BTC stash to grow in dollars value way faster than a higher cash out rate, including a cash out rate as high as 10% per year, but surely a guy with ONLY 8.24 BTC might still choose a more conservative withdrawal rate, even though he surely would have had been able to allow his BTC stash to grow over the past 5-ish years with ONLY a 4% withdrawal rate.

[mindrust]

To give you an idea, it's not that much compared to all of you in here but I can say that hopefully when BTC hits the ceiling, I can say that I can live with my life with less pressure…

That’s a good goal, congrats but I believe the FIRE stuff was originally about collecting dividend stocks which produce a somewhat reliable cash income.

Of course you can invest in coffee beans and still become FIRE if it works for you.

But having to sell your bitcoins might not be the best idea whether you become FIRE or not. Or maybe, you want to invest only in btc and later you want to allocate some of your btc to the dividend stocks when your btc stash hits a certain amount against the USD but then you won’t have any experience in the stock market when that time comes and you will look like a fish out of the ocean which means you’ll make mistakes and lose money.

Or you might try to become a real estate king like Donald after you get rich from btc. It will also generate good cash flow but the bad part is, it is a business which you’ll have to manage. Talk to the tenants, fix the properties etc… Dividend stocks bring much less headache. What could go wrong with KO for example unless they make everyone cancer or diabetic and guess what they actually do and nobody cares (poor J&J and 3M had to go through that lawsuit nightmare and they still operate!)

The point is, I am not sure if depending on only btc is a good idea. You might also want to plant seeds in other farms while it is early. You don’t wanna be late there as much as you don’t wanna be late at bitcoin. Getting rich is easier than most people think. Managing and keeping your riches is a way difficult task.

Also understanding the legacy markets (stock and real estate) gives you a much better understanding of finance than investing only in bitcoin.

Many people who got rich from bitcoin were already nearly rich because they were already invested in stocks. Don’t miss that point. If you become successful at the stock market, you will kill it at bitcoin markets. Ez pz.

Let's say that a guy had accumulated bitcoin until March 2020, and he got up to 10 BTC, yet then he got frustrated with bitcoin, so he decided to start to cash out 4% of his bitcoin per year, and so if he had followed such a cashing out, he would have had cashed out right about 1.76 BTC over the past nearly 5 years, and he would still have 8.24 BTC, and so maybe at this point he could stick with a 4% cash out rate, or maybe he could move up to a 10% cash out rate?  I  think that either one is sustainable, yet the lower cash out rate will certainly allow the BTC stash to grow in dollars value way faster than a higher cash out rate, including a cash out rate as high as 10% per year, but surely a guy with ONLY 8.24 BTC might still choose a more conservative withdrawal rate, even though he surely would have had been able to allow his BTC stash to grow over the past 5-ish years with ONLY a 4% withdrawal rate.

That worked like that till now doesn’t mean it will work just the same in the future. Also you are putting far too much trust in one asset I don’t care if it is gold, bitcoin, adamantine or unobtainium. It is still one asset.

Can bitcoin grow the same rate in the future as it did in the past? Sure it can but is it wise to make a bet on only one asset? If you trust only bitcoin then good or bad whatever happens to Bitcoin directly affects you and your future plans. 100%.

But when you have a diversified portfolio of all good assets (btc, gold, dividend producing stocks making profits, growth stocks, high yield bonds) which you pick personally, then you will distribute the total risk to your assets but the upside potential will be more or less the same.

In the end you will end up having a financial fortress which will survive any doomsday scenario.

I made that mistake going all in on asset. Never again. I could have won big but it is not worth having that anxiety. Anxiety makes you panic and panic makes you stupid. Going all in is a no no.

I have a diversified portfolio now which makes bucks even while I am sleeping. I have different assets all around the world. Every tiny share and sat I got is busting his ass to make money for me and I sleep much, much better. Not a care in the world.

[Lamkuthang]

I made that mistake going all in on asset. Never again. I could have won big but it is not worth having that anxiety. Anxiety makes you panic and panic makes you stupid. Going all in is a no no.

That's right. I've been there too and couldn't get out when the price dropped hard the only choice was to wait for the price to come back and the most painful thing is having to find other funds to cover urgent needs.

Yes. why when we see someone who is confident in their activities their money is always on standby, when they need it can be disbursed.

[babo]

we talked about it a lot on the Italian board of the FIRE movement, which is very interesting
FIRE is not a fixed pattern but more a way of thinking and making choices

There is no FIRE scheme or project that is the same for everyone, everyone has their own and is personalized for their needs
What's good for you, may not be good for me

[JayJuanGee]

To give you an idea, it's not that much compared to all of you in here but I can say that hopefully when BTC hits the ceiling, I can say that I can live with my life with less pressure…

That’s a good goal, congrats but I believe the FIRE stuff was originally about collecting dividend stocks which produce a somewhat reliable cash income.

Of course you can invest in coffee beans and still become FIRE if it works for you.

But having to sell your bitcoins might not be the best idea whether you become FIRE or not. Or maybe, you want to invest only in btc and later you want to allocate some of your btc to the dividend stocks when your btc stash hits a certain amount against the USD but then you won’t have any experience in the stock market when that time comes and you will look like a fish out of the ocean which means you’ll make mistakes and lose money.

Or you might try to become a real estate king like Donald after you get rich from btc. It will also generate good cash flow but the bad part is, it is a business which you’ll have to manage. Talk to the tenants, fix the properties etc… Dividend stocks bring much less headache. What could go wrong with KO for example unless they make everyone cancer or diabetic and guess what they actually do and nobody cares (poor J&J and 3M had to go through that lawsuit nightmare and they still operate!)

The point is, I am not sure if depending on only btc is a good idea. You might also want to plant seeds in other farms while it is early. You don’t wanna be late there as much as you don’t wanna be late at bitcoin. Getting rich is easier than most people think. Managing and keeping your riches is a way difficult task.

Also understanding the legacy markets (stock and real estate) gives you a much better understanding of finance than investing only in bitcoin.

Many people who got rich from bitcoin were already nearly rich because they were already invested in stocks. Don’t miss that point. If you become successful at the stock market, you will kill it at bitcoin markets. Ez pz.

Let's say that a guy had accumulated bitcoin until March 2020, and he got up to 10 BTC, yet then he got frustrated with bitcoin, so he decided to start to cash out 4% of his bitcoin per year, and so if he had followed such a cashing out, he would have had cashed out right about 1.76 BTC over the past nearly 5 years, and he would still have 8.24 BTC, and so maybe at this point he could stick with a 4% cash out rate, or maybe he could move up to a 10% cash out rate?  I  think that either one is sustainable, yet the lower cash out rate will certainly allow the BTC stash to grow in dollars value way faster than a higher cash out rate, including a cash out rate as high as 10% per year, but surely a guy with ONLY 8.24 BTC might still choose a more conservative withdrawal rate, even though he surely would have had been able to allow his BTC stash to grow over the past 5-ish years with ONLY a 4% withdrawal rate.

That worked like that till now doesn’t mean it will work just the same in the future. Also you are putting far too much trust in one asset I don’t care if it is gold, bitcoin, adamantine or unobtainium. It is still one asset.

I think what I had been attempting to describe in my various responses regarding the inclusion of bitcoin in any investment portfolio and even my various threads on the topic attempts to be a reasonable approach to bitcoin... and sure, guys don't necessarily need to agree with me or even relate to the kinds of balances that I am striving to achieve, and I have also been accused of overly complicating matters when I tend to ongoingly describe a need to both account for the 200-WMA value of your bitcoin and the spot price, and so it can be a bit confusing for folks to deal with these kinds of juxtapositionings of bitcoin valuations and also to attempt to balance those kinds of considerations with other things that guys might have going on in their investment portfolio that might also need to be considered.

Of course, we cannot turn back the clock, and we might not even want to start to withdraw from our bitcoin holdings until it gets to a certain size.  

Surely, when you look at the link that I provided in my earlier post regarding the BTC spot price versus the 200-WMA value of the 10 BTC on March 12, 2020, you will see that March 2020 may well might not have had been a good time to start to cash out on the BTC, even though I was largely using that as an example based on extremes in BTC price movements that happened at and around that time... So surely even cashing out at a conservative 4% per annum rate or otherwise might not have been the greatest idea to start in and around March 2020, yet surely I am continuing to make the argument that any withdrawal rate between 4% and 10% has historically been sustainable in bitcoin even if the starting dates might have had been during some kind of a BTC price spike to either the upside or to the downside, and my argument continues to be that even withdrawing between 4% to 10% per year is likely to continue to be sustainable, especially if such withdrawal rate is tempered based on accounting for BTC prices in relation to the 200-WMA and if the withdrawals might be spread out, since surely it would not be a great idea to jump into rash considerations of cashing out a bunch of BTC at the bottom, just like it would not tend to be a good idea to engage in rash decisions to buy a lot of BTC as the BTC price seems to be spiking (I have made that mistake on more than one occasion), and therefore I have outlined some of my own ideas around sustainable withdrawal rates to involve reducing the withdrawal rate when the BTC spot price is less than 25% higher than the 200-WMA... which is also described at the explanatory bottom of the bitcoindata.sience/withdrawal-strategy page.

So, of course, as you rightfully point out so many of us realize that past performance of any asset (whether bitcoin or otherwise) does not guarantee future results, yet I still think that if we are calculating what to do and how to manage our BTC based on the 200-WMA, then we are taking a way more conservative approach to managing our BTC as compared to if we were making our decisions based on the whims of BTC's spot price that have historically been pretty damned big and there is no reason to really speculate that such BTC spot price whims are not going to continue into the future.

Sure, regarding ONLY having one asset, that could be problematic, even if we are still imply that the one asset would still be balanced with managing fiat reserves (whether the dollar or other fiats that might be considered local currency kinds of balancing of cashflows and cash reserve attempts).  I am not even going to entertain any nonsense that there are practicalities in regards to fucking around with shitcoins, except maybe for folks who cannot resist gambling, then maybe they could play around with up to 10% the size of their bitcoin holdings into various shitcoins and/or trading an/or gambling.  Another problem with considering shitcoins as diversification is that they have been and will likely quite greatly continue to be correlated with bitcoin's price performance, so adding shitcoins to your investment portfolio is largely just adding an additional layer of risk, when we already likely should realize that bitcoin is already a risky asset, so why add more risk that is just correlated in the same direction, except for limiting it to no greater than 10% of the bitcoin value, for those guys who cannot resist gambling (and/or experimenting and imagining that they are learning from it).

So usually if we are referring to practical diversification, then we would be considering across other asset classes that are not supposed to be correlated, even though many of us realize that so many asset classes are perverted through their overly correlation with various debt systems, yet still we could continue to consider other potentially non-correlated or less correlated asset categories as property, stocks, bonds, commodities, cash/cash equivalents (hopefully not shitcoins) and perhaps some business kinds of ventures.

I am not against allocating beyond bitcoin and cash.. especially as a person's investment portfolio grows, and perhaps once the bitcoin and cash components might start to get to more than a year or so of annual income/expenses, then there could be some desires to have some other exposures that may well still be just various ways to buttress the cash component so that it is earning yield rather than ongoingly debasing.. so the general idea is that bare minimum of 3 months back up cash/liquid funds in a kind of emergency fund, and then other kinds of back up funds can be in cash or something that might be relatively liquid which sometimes might be referred to reserves and float and as those funds get bigger, presumptively along with the growth of a person's bitcoin stash, then there may well be desires to have  some of those back up funds earning, so putting into the categories of other assets as I described, yet it may not be urgent to diversify, yet over the years maybe one or two more back up assets could be added whether properties (not tending to be very liquid) or stocks or something, and surely some of these choices might be individualistic.

So then in regards to withdrawing from the bitcoin, sure you could start early.. such as the starting from march 2020 when the 10 BTC are ONLY worth around $55k-ish... but it may well be better to let them grow for a while and continue to add to them, and if your cashflow is totally fucked up or if you feel that you had overly allocated to the BTC, then either you just stop buying it or maybe you start withdrawing at a bit of a faster rate (such as going as high as 10% annually) until you start to feel better about your balance.. .. and yeah of course, these can be tough decisions, and as you suggest, we cannot go back in time, we can ONLY attempt to figure out a prudent and practical strategy from now hence forth and perhaps try to learn from historical performance and/or identifying and accepting the ongoing strength of BTC fundamentals..even if the upside potential might not be as great, bitcoin's investment thesis remains strong today and perhaps even stronger than it was 5-10 years ago... and perhaps even stronger in the past year or two based on more and  more entrants and interest from governments, institutions and traditional (status quo) rich people.

Can bitcoin grow the same rate in the future as it did in the past? Sure it can but is it wise to make a bet on only one asset? If you trust only bitcoin then good or bad whatever happens to Bitcoin directly affects you and your future plans. 100%.

Sure bitcoin has appreciated in value (price) quite a bit in the past 5-10 years, so we can see that it would have had been good to invest in bitcoin historically, yet I still doubt that we would be disadvantaged by investing into bitcoin today, especially since we cannot turn back the clock.  We have to figure out what to do from today, and sure we can account for our various personal circumstances (including the 9 I mention) that will also account for how many BTC we have so far accumulated, and then also to figure out if we have enough or more than enough, and if we don't have enough, it seems that we should keep building the bitcoin, and bitcoin likely remains amongst the best (if not the best) of investment assets that is currently widely available across the whole world, yet it still likely ONLY has about 1% of the world's population invested into it... and yeah, maybe we remain pessimistic about bitcoin's upward potential as compared with other places that we might put our value, so then those are questions about position size rather than questions about whether to get in or not.

Prior to March 2020, I used to recommend for beginners into bitcoin to make an initial allocation into bitcoin between 1% and 10%, and after March 2020, I started to recommend an initial allocation into bitcoin between 5% and 25%, and yeah of course, the more than guys study into bitcoin they can figure out whether they want to be more whimpy in regards to their bitcoin allocation level or if they might want to error on the side of being more aggressive, and surely my own recommendations are merely attempts to share some of my own ideas, and guys ultimately have to figure out these matters for themselves, including tailoring their level of aggressiveness to their own circumstances - including that some guys may well want to go outside of my own recommended parameters based on their own assessments of the matter or even their own assessments of their own particular circumstances that they believe justifies some other kind of a target.  

I am surely not claiming  to know the answer in regards to what some other guy should do, even though sometimes I still might feel that I have enough information to make some general suggestions, and some of the general suggestions that I ongoingly tend to make is to proclaim that an overwhelming majority of normies are tending to be underallocated to bitcoin, since we have a whole world of low coiners and no coiners, so I think that it is ongoingly appropriate for me to continue to be presuming that an overwhelming number of normies continue to be underallocated to bitcoin.. absent some evidence to the contrary.  Of course, I would not proclaim that psycho Michael Saylor to even be close to the category of underallocated to bitcoin, even though he ongoingly proclaims that he does not have enough.. hahahahaha.. what I psycho, but still ongoingly he makes a lot of really good points in regards to recognizing and appreciating bitcoin as the most pristine of assets currently available, and they are available to him and/or anyone else who is willing to spend time, energy and/or financial resources to gobble them up (and to put them into self-custody - even though Saylor's own (including MSTR's) BTC custody arrangements might not be as good as they could be or should be).

But when you have a diversified portfolio of all good assets (btc, gold, dividend producing stocks making profits, growth stocks, high yield bonds) which you pick personally, then you will distribute the total risk to your assets but the upside potential will be more or less the same.

I don't have a problem with the idea of diversification, including the categories you describe, yet you still personally have to figure out how much of a priority are you going to give to bitcoin, and also potentially question the extent to which you are diluting your bitcoin investment based on your voluntary decision to invest into various inferior assets.  Yeah, of course, we don't have to agree regarding our allocation choices, and personally, since about 2017-ish, I had come around to my own adjustment in thinking to largely just continue to let my bitcoin investment ride rather than engaging in practices of reallocating into inferior assets, even though for sure we had seen a lot of volatility from bitcoin since we can look at the charts and we can see that bitcoin had a stupendous uptrend from late 2015 to late 2017 in which it largely went up 78x from $250 ish to $19,666, but then it ended up correcting back down in the ballpark of 84%-ish to $3,124-ish.  Even in that 2017 process of going up and coming back down, I had already decided (I think it was sometime in late-ish 2017) that I was just going to ride out whatever ended up happening, including whatever correction might end up coming after the blow off top, so I already decided that I was not going to try to trade the waves.. that were even somewhat anticipated prior to their happening, even though none of us can really know specifics in regards to when the top is in, until perhaps after several months when it starts to become more clear that the top had already happened.

My point is that any of us can attempt to structure our own finances and our psychology that we are willing to ride the waves including figuring if we might have high allocations in something like bitcoin, we still could decide to just let it ride, even if we expect it to continue to be greatly volatile and sometimes even having extremely great downward corrections that might well even be manipulations in which we cannot tell how far the downity is going to end up.  I am not going to claim it is easy to go through the down periods, and I am not even going to claim that there aren't frustrations when the price seems to fail/refuse to go back up for way longer than seems reasonable... but at the same time, it still continues to seem that bitcoin remains amongst the best (if not the best) of assets, and the mere fact that there is an ongoing underlying war in the background should not necessarily dissuade us, even if the underlying war might contribute to our position size choices, and surely we are not all going to decide the same, since we surely have to also account for our own particulars in regards to both how much to allocate and then how to manage our BTC once in and if we are continue to consider ourselves in a BTC accumulation stage or if we might consider that we had advanced to a maintenance stage or a liquidation stage or some combination of those, since sometimes we might float a little between those stages especially if we are building our BTC holdings and also other aspects of our overall investment portfolio yet at the same time, it might not be exactly clear if we have enough yet or not or if we just have to continue to allow the time to play out and maybe not take any drastic moves, unless the drastic moves might be justified based on new developments and/or reasonable changes in our perspective.

In the end you will end up having a financial fortress which will survive any doomsday scenario.

There are a variety of ways to hedge your various investments, yet at the same time, guys will likely engage in different tactics while they are building their investment portfolio as compared to if they transition to either a maintenance stage or a liquidation stage.  Surely any of us should want to establish an investment portfolio that holds its value, but also that it appreciates enough so that we can start to withdraw from it or live off of it, and probably we also would want to make sure that our investment portfolio would also keep up with the debasement of fiat currencies (whether our own fiat currency or various fiat currencies overall).

I made that mistake going all in on asset. Never again. I could have won big but it is not worth having that anxiety. Anxiety makes you panic and panic makes you stupid. Going all in is a no no.

Of course,  it is hard to argue in regards to experiences that are based on actual happenings, even though surely arguments could be made in regards to lessons that might be learned or even paths forward, yet at the same time, each person is responsible for figuring out their own allocations, whether they consider themselves in the building stage including hopefully building their various assets within their investment portfolio or if they might consider themselves to be transitioning in to some kind of a maintenance stage or liquidation stage.  Surely when a person is more earlier on in his investment building, he may well just start out with one asset, such as bitcoin and cash, and then little by little he might end up adding other categories of assets and figuring out how much to allocate to them.. and surely there are guys that get their balances wrong, even though again it is both their decision to make and also they are going to be responsible for any consequences of their decision, including that no one is likely to bail them out (from the internet) if they end up screwing up in terms of their own allocation choices (and/or their from time  to time reallocation, if they end up engaging in reallocation practices from time to time).

Probably, it is also good to keep in mind that there could be situations in which we continue to make similar kinds of mistakes or on the other hand that we might overly compensate for one of our past mistakes and then end up getting a bit of a wrong lesson from our prior mistake(s).  I doubt that I really need to flesh out this part of my observation, since I had largely already asserted my own assessment that bitcoin is and has been amongst the best, if not the best, of investments available to all people, so it could be a bit of a problem to either underallocate to it or to overly allocate to inferior assets (and/or currencies).. but yeah, sure in the end, each of us has to figure out these kinds of balances for ourselves and continue to consider if their might be any tweakings that from time to time that we might need to make in our approach... and I am not even proclaiming to be holier than art thou, since from time to time, I also have to make some adjustments and even I sometimes will consider that I might be wrong in some of my allocations, and I might have to consider if there might be some better balance that I might need to attempt to strike.. so yeah, there can be questions about whether to adjust and if so the extent to adjust and also questions regarding when or if there might be alternatives to the adjustment(s) that could end up achieving similar balances (perhaps with less need for turmoil, to the extent that some action could cause tax consequences or even overly complicate matters).

I have a diversified portfolio now which makes bucks even while I am sleeping. I have different assets all around the world. Every tiny share and sat I got is busting his ass to make money for me and I sleep much, much better. Not a care in the world.

That's good.  I still think that there can be some differing considerations regarding if the assets are still being built up and when a guy might start to choose to live off of his investments, if he might consider that he is approaching such stage of his investment.  Sure, if he is still working, he might not need to go from his building stage and straight into a stage of withdrawing from his investment, and he also could transition from full time work to part time work and sure, some guys say that they don't mind working all of their lives, yet I would think that part of the theme of this thread is to talk about the extent to which we might consider that we are engaged in work based on merely activity preferences rather than feeling that we have to work to support our lifestyle, so in some sense, you already mentioned that there could be stages in which we may well consider that we are pretty much able to completely live off of the financial portfolio that we had built without having to engage in other kinds of work - beyond perhaps just some managerial kinds of activities that we might have to continue to do in regards to spending from our investment portfolio and/or maybe accounting  for our moving around funds from time to time.

we talked about it a lot on the Italian board of the FIRE movement, which is very interesting
FIRE is not a fixed pattern but more a way of thinking and making choices

There is no FIRE scheme or project that is the same for everyone, everyone has their own and is personalized for their needs
What's good for you, may not be good for me

Sure, there is a bit of a psychological component, yet there are also some hard facts that relate to both how much value a guy has accumulated, the various ways that the value is allocated and various kinds of cashflow and portfolio management practices that might be different in regards to the building stage as compared to getting to a status that the guy is actually going to start to live off of the funds, either in full or partially.

I doubt that mentality is going to help very much for guys who either had not established enough funds into their investment portfolio or if their cashflow and/or their portfolio management practices are not in a decently solid status allocations and/or plans to withdraw if that is their current or future status.

[franky1]

a mistake the useful idiot has made a few times is his idea of standard 4% drawdown via a monthly reverse DCA style of 0.33% without using a plan to sell on the high and reinvest on the low to maximise profits and keep accumulating coin and plan spending

for instance
taking 4% out each year is what most people believe is the equivalent of 1/20th of capital to have a 20 year retirement of declining capital assets (in traditional finance)
this is standard 20 year expectation from 65 retirement age to 85 life expectancy

so he is using tradefi's 4% notion of a 20 year retirement of diminishing assets
(not good notion for people to retire earlier meaning needing alot more years worth of longevity of capital)

also drawing down in reverse monthly DCA means the $ per month will be extremely variable and doesnt help plan for future months lifestyle spending desires

for instance a 4%/y drawdown on 300btc is 12btc/y. and from jan 2018 would be 1btc a month
in january 2018 he would have ~$10k that month but in december 2018 it would only be ~$3k

and due to his reverse month DCA drawdown he wont know he is only going to get to spend $3k in december when he is planning things in the earlier months

so stupidly by him doing reverse DCA to retire.. he is not profiting at the best times to get the best out of the deals
..

my style is to wait for the ATH of each cycle and take out 20%
this represents 4x 4% to cover 4 years, and 1x 4% to use to buy in at the latter correction to accumulate again and reduce how much coin is lost per cycle..

so the 20% of hoard is sold at the ATH season for max fiat
meaning the yearly and monthly budget spend is for the 16%... and keep the 4% extra aside for buying back in at the correction

lets use the 2017 ATH as a example seeing as the useless idiot done this too
for instance 300btc turns into 240btc still locked in btc... and 60btc(20%) sold..at the $20k ATH peak of late 2017
60btc at near $20k is upto $1.2m with a split to spend $900k(the 16%) over 4 years and put aside $300k(4%) to rebuy at correction

so the 2019 low of ~$3k/btc adds 100btc back into the pot ($300k / $3k=100btc)
and with the $900k over 4 years allows a averaged allowance spend of $18.75k a month

which is a much better deal over all than the useful idiots reverse DCA game

..
taking the 2025 ATH seasons event as a trigger withdrawal event.
a plan of reasonable expectation of ATH of $350k(date to cash out target)
so the 300btc with a 20% withdrawal is 60btc which is $21m
allowing for the 4 year spending of $4.2m per year($350k a month) and a put aside $4.2m to re invest in the 2026-27 correction
the reasonable expectation of correction would be $70k

the reason i say the 2026-27 low correction would be $70k is because:
the 2020-24 correction low is similar to the 2017 high
the 2016-20 correction low is similar to the 2013 high
so the 2024-28 correction low could be similar to the 2021 high

ofcourse my example is not an exact prediction of returns and not a guarantee, but you can atleast see how its still better off even with lower returns via not getting the exact numbers right, just by planning to sell high buy low logic to keep the funds flowing and have plans set for future

[tabas]

To give you an idea, it's not that much compared to all of you in here but I can say that hopefully when BTC hits the ceiling, I can say that I can live with my life with less pressure.

One thing is that bitcoin is designed to go up forever, so if you think that if bitcoin goes to a certain price, then you are selling it, that seems to be problematic from my point of view.

I'll take some chunks but there is no point of having an all-out exit point at that time. I'll use that money to generate some other avenues for making more money too so that I won't have to sell the remaining I have.

~snip~

That makes sense, I agree that there are some trade-offs and decisions where we're in a situation that we either choose to get stuck in the midst of it or choose the traditional belief that we should also go with or choose to be different and take some risks. As for your case and the most of us here, we did chose the latter and the trade did well for us, ofcourse to the ones that have held Bitcoin even until now. I think it's harder in the past years to invest and sacrifice some money just for BTC because there were less recognition, more FUD, more scary sentiments and thoughts from the finance sector but those who took the risk, here we go, we're on the greener pasture.

Selling your house is one thing, and choosing to not even buy a house (defer the purchase) is another thing.  I remember times in which folks were really excited about selling their bitcoin and getting into real estate, which I know is an ongoing lingering dilemma for some folks.

Even until now, if you'd ask some holders, they'd totally answer to buy a house after selling BTC. So, I think it always ticks on everyone's box about having real estate and many are willing to sell their BTCs at the right price for it.

~snip~

That's part of my plan and that's why even though it doesn't sound like a good plan to sell some at the right time, I'm pretty sure that to expand in other ventures, assets and businesses is where that huge part of sold BTCs will be going. I'm not entirely going to sell the most from the little that I have but I'll keep the remaining ones and hopefully earning from dividends, rents or any other passive incomes will give better cashflow so that I won't have to sell the remaining that I have. Thus, it will help me to buy back and DCA. Other thing that sounds good is with REITs, no need to manage the tenants, no renovations needed just pure dividends but also depending on the market and the REIT that will be chosen. People think that these replies are wall of texts, if they get some time in reading what you folks are saying, they're having a free webinar and learns a lot within few minutes of reading.

[JayJuanGee]

a mistake the useful idiot has made a few times is his idea of standard 4% drawdown via a monthly reverse DCA style of 0.33% without using a plan to sell on the high and reinvest on the low to maximise profits and keep accumulating coin and plan spending

Any reinvestment strategy is an optional angle, and is not a necessary component, even if reinvesting could be a way of attempting to deal with volatility, if volatility might be a factor that is even needed to be accounted for in the withdrawal plan.. again optional to consider and/or to incorporate.

for instance
taking 4% out each year is what most people believe is the equivalent of 1/20th of capital to have a 20 year retirement of declining capital assets (in traditional finance)
this is standard 20 year expectation from 65 retirement age to 85 life expectancy

so he is using tradefi's 4% notion of a 20 year retirement of diminishing assets
(not good notion for people to retire earlier meaning needing alot more years worth of longevity of capital)

also drawing down in reverse monthly DCA means the $ per month will be extremely variable and doesnt help plan for future months lifestyle spending desires

You are going into a lot of details about a portion that is optional, and most likely is not even necessary if there is already a large enough cushion in the size of the investment portfolio.

Surely, if someone is barely making it into fuck you status (or FIRE) status, then he might need to employ more complications to make their finances work as compared to someone who may well even be way beyond entry level fuck you and might even start out with double or some other amounts quite beyond what they consider to be their entry level numbers.

for instance a 4%/y drawdown on 300btc is 12btc/y. and from jan 2018 would be 1btc a month
in january 2018 he would have ~$10k that month but in december 2018 it would only be ~$3k

and due to his reverse month DCA drawdown he wont know he is only going to get to spend $3k in december when he is planning things in the earlier months

so stupidly by him doing reverse DCA to retire.. he is not profiting at the best times to get the best out of the deals
..

my style is to wait for the ATH of each cycle and take out 20%
this represents 4x 4% to cover 4 years, and 1x 4% to use to buy in at the latter correction to accumulate again and reduce how much coin is lost per cycle..

so the 20% of hoard is sold at the ATH season for max fiat
meaning the yearly and monthly budget spend is for the 16%... and keep the 4% extra aside for buying back in at the correction

Sure.  You could frontload some of your withdrawal during periods that the BTC price is up.  The instructions of the tool and at the bottom of the page that I had been mentioning has some provisions for including higher levels of withdrawal on the way up and lower levels of withdrawal on the way down.. yet even with flat withdrawals on something like a monthly basis, 4% annual will still end up working out even through ups and downs at least how the historical back testing shows. 

Yes... it is already known that future results is not guaranteed based on history, which is part of the justification attempting adjustments, especially if there is less of a cushion in the size of the BTC stash.. ..so surely guys should be able to figure out their various balances, or maybe they need to hire a consultant or send a PM to Franky1 so that you can help them out with the details.

lets use the 2017 ATH as a example seeing as the useless idiot done this too
for instance 300btc turns into 240btc still locked in btc... and 60btc(20%) sold..at the $20k ATH peak of late 2017
60btc at near $20k is upto $1.2m with a split to spend $900k(the 16%) over 4 years and put aside $300k(4%) to rebuy at correction

so the 2019 low of ~$3k/btc adds 100btc back into the pot ($300k / $3k=100btc)
and with the $900k over 4 years allows a averaged allowance spend of $18.75k a month

which is a much better deal over all than the useful idiots reverse DCA game

Sure.. trying to time is optional and not necessary, and surely many of us likely realize that it is much easier to time when we are looking retrospectively, so there can be some disadvantages to be fucking around too much with attempts at timing.. but surely if we are seeing that we are experiencing BTC spot prices that are 5x to 15x higher than the 200-WMA, then surely our risks may well be lessened to cash out some extra BTC during those periods, even though we still run the risk that the BTC price might continue to go up or maybe that we end up cashing out too many BTC too soon...

..taking the 2025 ATH seasons event as a trigger withdrawal event.
a plan of reasonable expectation of ATH of $350k(date to cash out target)
so the 300btc with a 20% withdrawal is 60btc which is $21m
allowing for the 4 year spending of $4.2m per year($350k a month) and a put aside $4.2m to re invest in the 2026-27 correction
the reasonable expectation of correction would be $70k

If we are talking about entry level fuck you status, we may well be looking at way smaller numbers, such as a guy who currently has around 21 BTC.. and sure if he has 35 BTC, then he has around 14 extra BTC, so he could choose to cash out some of the extra BTC within the parameters of a lower level formula such as 4% or he might choose a higher formula or he may even withdraw some advance months within the parameters outlined by the tool or he might calculate his own parameters based on his own formulas.

I personally would not be trying to predict lows or highs, even though surely actions could be taken based on highs in order to attempt to prepare for lows, whether buying back is part of the forumal that is chosen or not.

the reason i say the 2026-27 low correction would be $70k is because:
the 2020-24 low is similar to the 2017 high
the 2016-20 low is similar to the 2013 high
so the 2024-28 low could be similar to the 2021 high

I am glad that you got all of these price moves figured out...and sure nothing wrong with having some base case thesis but it also seems good to have some flexibility in regards to how you might want to get through such volatility levels, even  if they might play out differently from expectations.

The way any guys plays these kinds of price expectations would likely be different if he considers himself to have had already reached fuck you status or if he is multiples above it or if he is still building his way up to such status.  I am not that BIG of a fan in regards to trying to trade BTC, even though I have a sustainable withdrawal theory thread in which I go into various approaches to price-based and time-based strategies in regards to dealing with and managing BTC holdings, and my proposed withdrawal strategies tend to presume already reaching and/or exceeding BTC accumulation goals, and I also don't presume any abilities to buy back sold BTC, even though many of us can also recognize and appreciate that the BTC price does tend to move in both directions... but I still try not to presume that buying back will take place, so in that regard selling of BTC is largely based on having had already reached overaccumulation status rather than giving any shits about having enough BTC.

ofcourse my example is not an exact prediction of returns and not a guarantee, but you can at least see how its still better off even with lower returns via not getting the exact numbers right, just by planning to sell high buy low to keep the funds flowing and have plans set for future

Personally, I am not too excited about trading strategies when it comes to BTC portfolio management, but yeah sure, try whatever you like including trading like Franky1 suggests, and hopefully you don't end up selling too much too soon or engaging in other tactics that otherwise cause you to end up without enough BTC.

To give you an idea, it's not that much compared to all of you in here but I can say that hopefully when BTC hits the ceiling, I can say that I can live with my life with less pressure.

One thing is that bitcoin is designed to go up forever, so if you think that if bitcoin goes to a certain price, then you are selling it, that seems to be problematic from my point of view.

I'll take some chunks but there is no point of having an all-out exit point at that time. I'll use that money to generate some other avenues for making more money too so that I won't have to sell the remaining I have.

~snip~

That makes sense, I agree that there are some trade-offs and decisions where we're in a situation that we either choose to get stuck in the midst of it or choose the traditional belief that we should also go with or choose to be different and take some risks. As for your case and the most of us here, we did chose the latter and the trade did well for us, ofcourse to the ones that have held Bitcoin even until now. I think it's harder in the past years to invest and sacrifice some money just for BTC because there were less recognition, more FUD, more scary sentiments and thoughts from the finance sector but those who took the risk, here we go, we're on the greener pasture.

Of course, anyone accumulating bitcoin for years may well have reached sufficiency or greater than sufficiency levels of BTC accumulation, so I personally believe that guys need to keep accumulating BTC until they reach such status of sufficient or overaccumulation of BTC.

It is also my perspective that most newbies are going to have difficulties reaching overaccumulation status in just one cycle or even two cycles unless they have abilities to frontload their BTC investment, and so in that regard, many of us know that it tends to take a decently long time to build up an investment portfolio, and surely some folks are in a better position to front load their BTc investment than others, but if we are merely new to investing, then we are largely depending on spending within our discretionary income which is not always a lot of money to be able to put into bitcoin, which is part of the reason it takes time to build up, and if we have been building up we have advantages over guys who are just getting started in the past year or two, but still no one can turn back the clock and there are going to continue to be people who are just coming to bitcoin and they are likely going to need to get started right away from where we are at rather than employing some kind of a waiting strategy that might not end up working out if the BTC price does not go down to the levels of their wishes.

Selling your house is one thing, and choosing to not even buy a house (defer the purchase) is another thing.  I remember times in which folks were really excited about selling their bitcoin and getting into real estate, which I know is an ongoing lingering dilemma for some folks.

Even until now, if you'd ask some holders, they'd totally answer to buy a house after selling BTC. So, I think it always ticks on everyone's box about having real estate and many are willing to sell their BTCs at the right price for it.

Yep.  They may or may not end up having regrets about how they choose their allocations in regards to bitcoin versus real estate or even bitcoin versus any other asset that they might be comparing.

[jossiel]

I made that mistake going all in on asset. Never again. I could have won big but it is not worth having that anxiety. Anxiety makes you panic and panic makes you stupid. Going all in is a no no.

Even in Bitcoin? I have this belief that going all-in in Bitcoin is totally fine but a time will come that I'll have to diversify as well but not too much.

I have a diversified portfolio now which makes bucks even while I am sleeping. I have different assets all around the world. Every tiny share and sat I got is busting his ass to make money for me and I sleep much, much better. Not a care in the world.

This is great that you're already on this kind of life. I wanna be on this kind of state in my life soon.

You're having cash flow while sleeping so, from rent, dividends, and other passive income comes from diversified portfolio. And I guess even staking coins and interest accounts?

[JayJuanGee]

I made that mistake going all in on asset. Never again. I could have won big but it is not worth having that anxiety. Anxiety makes you panic and panic makes you stupid. Going all in is a no no.

Even in Bitcoin? I have this belief that going all-in in Bitcoin is totally fine but a time will come that I'll have to diversify as well but not too much.

People have to be careful if overly allocate into any one asset, especially any asset that is volatile in relation to the currency in which they may well need to pay bills.  I don't really believe that it is very practical in regards to some guys who say they had gone 100% bitcoin or some variation like that, and they might even get paid in bitcoin, so they just convert to fiat to pay bills and things like that, as the bills come in.

Usually, we are at least going to need to find some kind of a minimum balance in regards to how much value that we might keep in fiat and how much in bitcoin, and even if we might have several hundred bitcoin, it may also be valuable to either keep a couple years in cash or at least 3-6 months in cash and then other various forms of places that are able to offset bitcoin's volatility, whether they are related to cash (and maybe liquid) or if they aren't as liquid then that would be a factor to consider as well in regards to how long it might take to cash out of them if necessary. 

I understand that guys may also want some assets that might earn them income or even to be able to use their assets for collateral and to get cash in those kinds of ways, and I am surely not opposed to any of those practices, even though there are likely better and worse ways of employing capital in those kinds of ways... which can end up taking us all over the place, and so my own personal preferences continue to be mostly emphasizing discussion on bitcoin and cash ways of balancing investment portfolios, especially since we are in a bitcoin forum, even though I understand some threads (including potentially this one) may well be open to bringing in some discussion of other areas that guys might choose to hold some of their value or that they deem it helpful to have some of their value in some other assets besides bitcoin and cash.

[babo]

Sure, there is a bit of a psychological component, yet there are also some hard facts that relate to both how much value a guy has accumulated, the various ways that the value is allocated and various kinds of cashflow and portfolio management practices that might be different in regards to the building stage as compared to getting to a status that the guy is actually going to start to live off of the funds, either in full or partially.

I doubt that mentality is going to help very much for guys who either had not established enough funds into their investment portfolio or if their cashflow and/or their portfolio management practices are not in a decently solid status allocations and/or plans to withdraw if that is their current or future status.

more than psychological, I would say that they are basic rules to better manage income and optimize expenses, which you can use even if you don't do a FIRE
very simple rules like

- create expense categories
- set a budget for each category
- monitor all expenses with a specific program, knowing how much you spend you can act and understand where to fix and optimize
- tries to increase cashflow by introducing various revenue or business units
- try to plan your savings
- try to postpone expenses as much as possible, hoping to optimize them, don't buy 1 glass today, postpone and buy a pack of 6 in the future when there are discounts, if you can obviously

[mindrust]

I made that mistake going all in on asset. Never again. I could have won big but it is not worth having that anxiety. Anxiety makes you panic and panic makes you stupid. Going all in is a no no.

Even in Bitcoin? I have this belief that going all-in in Bitcoin is totally fine but a time will come that I'll have to diversify as well but not too much.

I have a diversified portfolio now which makes bucks even while I am sleeping. I have different assets all around the world. Every tiny share and sat I got is busting his ass to make money for me and I sleep much, much better. Not a care in the world.

This is great that you're already on this kind of life. I wanna be on this kind of state in my life soon.

You're having cash flow while sleeping so, from rent, dividends, and other passive income comes from diversified portfolio. And I guess even staking coins and interest accounts?

Yes even in bitcoin.

Bitcoin is not the only asset in the world, it is nothing special. It is just another asset in the world of finance. It might perform well or not just like any other asset in my portfolio and I do take profits when it starts to take over my portfolio. That’s called “having a permanent portfolio”. (Basically I rebalance the portfolio by selling some of the outperforming assets, and add juice to the underperforming ones that’s if I still believe they carry a upwards potential) That way you never run out of either your shares/sats or USD.

I am mostly collecting dividends and bond coupons at the moment. Not particularly interested in real estate for now but I am studying it.

Going all in on btc has another big risk:

You miss your chance to buy lots of other assets for cheap and they go cheap all the time. Market anomalies always happen in the stock market.

[justdimin]

I made that mistake going all in on asset. Never again. I could have won big but it is not worth having that anxiety. Anxiety makes you panic and panic makes you stupid. Going all in is a no no.

That's right. I've been there too and couldn't get out when the price dropped hard the only choice was to wait for the price to come back and the most painful thing is having to find other funds to cover urgent needs.

Yes. why when we see someone who is confident in their activities their money is always on standby, when they need it can be disbursed.

This has happened to me too, invested so well, for years, got rid of all my debts, and collected some bitcoin on the side. By image, it looked like I was on road to retire early and do very well, and if I kept all of it today, I would be pretty close to retiring as well, nearly 25%+ done, and already, which means in 5-10 years I would be retiring without a doubt, well I would still work, I wouldn't know what to do when I "retire", like just watch netflix all day?

But in a sense, I would not "need" money, that's the better term. But what happened? A loved one got sick, and took years, but eventually they passed away, for all those years I had to take care of many bills, and of course that meant first selling all the investments I had, and then it meant getting into debt as well. Now I have less debt again, getting rid of it thanks to bitcoin, but I also do not make much investment aside, I hope if nothing bad happens, I will probably be back again on the next bull run and not this one.

[tabas]

That makes sense, I agree that there are some trade-offs and decisions where we're in a situation that we either choose to get stuck in the midst of it or choose the traditional belief that we should also go with or choose to be different and take some risks. As for your case and the most of us here, we did chose the latter and the trade did well for us, ofcourse to the ones that have held Bitcoin even until now. I think it's harder in the past years to invest and sacrifice some money just for BTC because there were less recognition, more FUD, more scary sentiments and thoughts from the finance sector but those who took the risk, here we go, we're on the greener pasture.

Of course, anyone accumulating bitcoin for years may well have reached sufficiency or greater than sufficiency levels of BTC accumulation, so I personally believe that guys need to keep accumulating BTC until they reach such status of sufficient or overaccumulation of BTC.

It is also my perspective that most newbies are going to have difficulties reaching overaccumulation status in just one cycle or even two cycles unless they have abilities to frontload their BTC investment, and so in that regard, many of us know that it tends to take a decently long time to build up an investment portfolio, and surely some folks are in a better position to front load their BTc investment than others, but if we are merely new to investing, then we are largely depending on spending within our discretionary income which is not always a lot of money to be able to put into bitcoin, which is part of the reason it takes time to build up, and if we have been building up we have advantages over guys who are just getting started in the past year or two, but still no one can turn back the clock and there are going to continue to be people who are just coming to bitcoin and they are likely going to need to get started right away from where we are at rather than employing some kind of a waiting strategy that might not end up working out if the BTC price does not go down to the levels of their wishes.
 bitcoin versus real estate or even bitcoin versus any other asset that they might be comparing.

Many of the newbies don't believe what we say about them, with the experience that we share until they see how the charts went in the past and they start to realize that we're telling them the truth and that it's going to take time for them to accumulate. And, this is the strategy that they have to do while they can and if they have larger targets in the future. The scenario that we typically see is about someone realizing their mistake of not accumulating at the bottom. But no one's perfect, we all have our moments of accumulation, it may not be the bottom but at least it's way below the peak that we've seen and the only matter that many of us did was we did became consistent in DCA.

Even until now, if you'd ask some holders, they'd totally answer to buy a house after selling BTC. So, I think it always ticks on everyone's box about having real estate and many are willing to sell their BTCs at the right price for it.

Yep.  They may or may not end up having regrets about how they choose their allocations in regards to bitcoin versus real estate or even bitcoin versus any other asset that they might be comparing.

I think what matters by that time if someone decides to do it is about their happiness and fulfillment.

[JayJuanGee]

I made that mistake going all in on asset. Never again. I could have won big but it is not worth having that anxiety. Anxiety makes you panic and panic makes you stupid. Going all in is a no no.

Even in Bitcoin? I have this belief that going all-in in Bitcoin is totally fine but a time will come that I'll have to diversify as well but not too much.

I have a diversified portfolio now which makes bucks even while I am sleeping. I have different assets all around the world. Every tiny share and sat I got is busting his ass to make money for me and I sleep much, much better. Not a care in the world.

This is great that you're already on this kind of life. I wanna be on this kind of state in my life soon.

You're having cash flow while sleeping so, from rent, dividends, and other passive income comes from diversified portfolio. And I guess even staking coins and interest accounts?

Yes even in bitcoin.

Bitcoin is not the only asset in the world, it is nothing special. It is just another asset in the world of finance.

Of course, we can agree to disagree.

Bitcoin remains amongst the best, if not the best asset in the world, and so failure/refusal to recognize that aspect about bitcoin likely means that you don't really understand bitcoin and you don't know how to allocate towards it or to treat it, which is too bad for you.

We know that historically bitcoin has performed the best out of any assets (especially if accounting for its widespread availability to anyone in the world), and also especially if we zoom out and we consider longer rather than shorter timelines, so in that sense, the longer that anyone has been into bitcoin and mostly errored on the side of buying it (accumulating it) and holding it and not selling it or trading it, then the more likely that he has outperformed other assets. 

Sure we went over that past performance does not guarantee future results, and sure we could also imply that the more than bitcoin has historically appreciated, then that takes away some of bitcoin's future upside potential, yet it surely seems to continue to be the case that bitcoin's investment thesis is not getting any weaker, and it also seems well to be the case that bitcoin is not even close to being a mature asset yet, even though  a lot of people ongoingly and continually make the mistake of assessing bitcoin as if it were a mature asset, which also has a kind of embedded assumption about them being too late to get into bitcoin (which is also wrong).

It might perform well or not just like any other asset in my portfolio and I do take profits when it starts to take over my portfolio.

Yes it is problematic to reallocate from winners and give to losers, it is like refusing to water the grass and instead watering the weeds because you are trying to treat the inferior items with a kind of equality and redistribution (reallocation)  of the value from the good items to the bad ones.  That is a way to ongoingly cause your asssets to underperform even though they are getting a bitcoin boost they are not getting anything close to bitcoin's true benefits including allowing it to do its natural thing, which is to compound value upon itself.

Think about the matter, since 2015, bitcoin has compounded upon itself in the ballpark of 9 times, which causes something like 256x returns.

So, let's look at the historical numbers and the timeline from 2015 to present again.
0)   $250  (2015)                                    1X
1)    $500  (2015-2016)                           2X
2)    $1,000    (2016-2017)        2X * 2 = 4X
3)    $2,000  (2017)                  4X * 2 = 8X
4)    $4,000  (2017-2020)          8X * 2 = 16X
5)    $8,000   (2017-2020)        16X * 2 = 32X
6)    $16,000  (2017-2022)       32X * 2 = 64X
7)    $32,000  (2021-2023?)      64X * 2 = 128X
8 )    $64,000  (2021-?)             128X * 2 = 256X
9)    $128,000  (?)                    256X * 2 = 512X

The power of compounding is amazing, especially when it is allowed to let itself work and not to purposefully stifle it.

That’s called “having a permanent portfolio”. (Basically I rebalance the portfolio by selling some of the outperforming assets, and add juice to the underperforming ones that’s if I still believe they carry a upwards potential) That way you never run out of either your shares/sats or USD.

Of course, you can do whatever you like to make yourself feel good, even though you are ONLY hurting yourself and the performance of your overall portfolio by doing that, and yeah it is a choice, it is a conservative choice that some  other investors due.. including those who manage various investments for others (they might even have legal obligations to engage in such regular reallocations and not letting any one asset get above a certain number and also they have issues of sometimes having to carry certain kinds of inferior assets, like US bonds/treasuries), so they may well end up with quite inferior performance and lack of enlightenment, even though there may well be periods where those kinds of portfolios are more stable.. like as if an old person in his late 70s might want more stability of income and retention of portfolio value because he cannot take any chances in regards to his being able to draw the same income for the next 10-20 years or however long he is expecting to draw income in his remaining years.

I am mostly collecting dividends and bond coupons at the moment. Not particularly interested in real estate for now but I am studying it.

Going all in on btc has another big risk:

You miss your chance to buy lots of other assets for cheap and they go cheap all the time. Market anomalies always happen in the stock market.

You don't have to go all in bitcoin, and sure you might still choose to add some other assets to your overall portfolio without overly diluting your bitcoin portion, yet sure, you can do what you like, yet it probably is not even going to come close to bitcoin's performance, and you don't even have to be close to as aggressive as you are implying in regards to your bitcoin as you seem to be arguing... but, hey, whatever, you do you.. and guys can make their choices, and hopefully they are able to figure out ways to actually get advantages of bitcoin including advantages of compounding value that has good chances to continue, even if not guaranteed.

I recall a lot of talk about properties and real estate years ago, and sure sometimes the evidence is ambiguous.. but still we can look at prices of real estate at various points and how many bitcoin it took to buy such properties then versus now, and the evidence is quite outrageous how much bitcoin has outperformed real estate, especially if we might look 4 years or more and the longer back we go the greater bitcoin's outperformance of real estate.. which we also should realize is an inferior place to store value as compared with bitcoin... but hey.. you can figure out your allocations.. and see how it ends up working out for you 5-10 years or more down the road, with real estate as compared with bitcoin.

I made that mistake going all in on asset. Never again. I could have won big but it is not worth having that anxiety. Anxiety makes you panic and panic makes you stupid. Going all in is a no no.

That's right. I've been there too and couldn't get out when the price dropped hard the only choice was to wait for the price to come back and the most painful thing is having to find other funds to cover urgent needs.

Yes. why when we see someone who is confident in their activities their money is always on standby, when they need it can be disbursed.

This has happened to me too, invested so well, for years, got rid of all my debts, and collected some bitcoin on the side. By image, it looked like I was on road to retire early and do very well, and if I kept all of it today, I would be pretty close to retiring as well, nearly 25%+ done, and already, which means in 5-10 years I would be retiring without a doubt, well I would still work, I wouldn't know what to do when I "retire", like just watch netflix all day?

But in a sense, I would not "need" money, that's the better term. But what happened? A loved one got sick, and took years, but eventually they passed away, for all those years I had to take care of many bills, and of course that meant first selling all the investments I had, and then it meant getting into debt as well. Now I have less debt again, getting rid of it thanks to bitcoin, but I also do not make much investment aside, I hope if nothing bad happens, I will probably be back again on the next bull run and not this one.

Well, if you ended up giving up your bitcoin, then you should realize a need to focus on building it back, so sure it can take a while to do, but putting value in bitcoin seems a good idea.. even though surely each of us is responsible for our own choices of where to put our investments and how aggressive that we can be without over doing it... It seems to me that we do not want to end up out of the game by ending up selling too many of our bitcoin too soon, especially if there are ways to avoid that kind of a thing.. and so we should be striving to manage our resources so that we are selling bitcoin last, in the event that we are having to sell more things than we would like to sell due to exigent circumstances.

[jossiel]

I made that mistake going all in on asset. Never again. I could have won big but it is not worth having that anxiety. Anxiety makes you panic and panic makes you stupid. Going all in is a no no.

Even in Bitcoin? I have this belief that going all-in in Bitcoin is totally fine but a time will come that I'll have to diversify as well but not too much.

I have a diversified portfolio now which makes bucks even while I am sleeping. I have different assets all around the world. Every tiny share and sat I got is busting his ass to make money for me and I sleep much, much better. Not a care in the world.

This is great that you're already on this kind of life. I wanna be on this kind of state in my life soon.

You're having cash flow while sleeping so, from rent, dividends, and other passive income comes from diversified portfolio. And I guess even staking coins and interest accounts?

Yes even in bitcoin.

Bitcoin is not the only asset in the world, it is nothing special. It is just another asset in the world of finance. It might perform well or not just like any other asset in my portfolio and I do take profits when it starts to take over my portfolio. That’s called “having a permanent portfolio”. (Basically I rebalance the portfolio by selling some of the outperforming assets, and add juice to the underperforming ones that’s if I still believe they carry a upwards potential) That way you never run out of either your shares/sats or USD.

I am mostly collecting dividends and bond coupons at the moment. Not particularly interested in real estate for now but I am studying it.

Going all in on btc has another big risk:

You miss your chance to buy lots of other assets for cheap and they go cheap all the time. Market anomalies always happen in the stock market.

I get it and that's really working when we've got dividends that could pay our lifestyle together with bonds. This approach is way lesser risk but the rewards are decent if you've got decent amount of investment as well.

This is the life that conservative investors should take and I'd love to go there in the next few years.

Even in Bitcoin? I have this belief that going all-in in Bitcoin is totally fine but a time will come that I'll have to diversify as well but not too much.

People have to be careful if overly allocate into any one asset, especially any asset that is volatile in relation to the currency in which they may well need to pay bills.  I don't really believe that it is very practical in regards to some guys who say they had gone 100% bitcoin or some variation like that, and they might even get paid in bitcoin, so they just convert to fiat to pay bills and things like that, as the bills come in.

Usually, we are at least going to need to find some kind of a minimum balance in regards to how much value that we might keep in fiat and how much in bitcoin, and even if we might have several hundred bitcoin, it may also be valuable to either keep a couple years in cash or at least 3-6 months in cash and then other various forms of places that are able to offset bitcoin's volatility, whether they are related to cash (and maybe liquid) or if they aren't as liquid then that would be a factor to consider as well in regards to how long it might take to cash out of them if necessary.  

I understand that guys may also want some assets that might earn them income or even to be able to use their assets for collateral and to get cash in those kinds of ways, and I am surely not opposed to any of those practices, even though there are likely better and worse ways of employing capital in those kinds of ways... which can end up taking us all over the place, and so my own personal preferences continue to be mostly emphasizing discussion on bitcoin and cash ways of balancing investment portfolios, especially since we are in a bitcoin forum, even though I understand some threads (including potentially this one) may well be open to bringing in some discussion of other areas that guys might choose to hold some of their value or that they deem it helpful to have some of their value in some other assets besides bitcoin and cash.

How I wish that I've got some hundred of Bitcoin. But I agree that what you've said is that we should allocate with minimum that we can, at least for those that haven't diversified yet and start to look up into the assets that they are convenient with.

It's notable that we've got some plans on when and how much we'll cash these assets. We have ways of balancing our portfolios but I am seeing investors that are full pledged with Bitcoin and that's why I've asked 'even in Bitcoin' but that's them, as we say to each their own.

And we all know it that BTC has been performing very well and one of the best globally that has ever existed.

[franky1]

the useful idiot has been screaming to people for a couple years to DCA into bitcoin..no matter what, and no matter the price

he knows (but doesnt want to admit) that DCA'ing in ATH season is not efficient and not recommended when prices are higher, so instead he is now playing the game that people should start thinking of diversifying(putting less into bitcoin in this season) for when the prices are too high

and this includes (but not in the manner he will admit to), cashing out coin at the ATH near extremes of good profit and for a while put somewhere else until the post-ATH correction has progressed for a while to then buy back in

(as previous debate with him showed he doesnt believe in cashing out to rebuy later(trade))
(it is funny how he is now wanting people to get more involved in regularly switching and moving funds(trading) depending on the seasonal prices)

..
his game and the game of DCA promoters is that he/they want people to DCA non-stop at no matter what price, to keep the buy pressure for those who want the price to rise so they can sell.. and now he is realising how his own game is failing him as he knows he is now going to stop DCA'ing as much and then sell out near the ATH extreme and he needs to not admit that its because he failed his own "always DCA" strategy.. so he wants to play it off as something else

yes selling and not DCAing in the extremes of ATH season is apt advise and finding other assets that are on their seasonal low is apt advise.. but the useful idiot will not admit that constant DCA 'no matter what' was bad advice

so yes folks plan to sell SOME coin at the ATH extreme premiums and then plan later to buy back in when the POST-ATH correction low season starts

the funniest part of all, especially in this topic.. is i suggested the best investment and re-investment method to maximise the potential of entering and staying in FIRE and FI is to sell high buy low during those known seasons.

and now although he is not wording it as such, he is now tailoring his DCA game to do things exactly as i said, but wording it differently to not admit his defeat