betting on the underdogs, is it profitable?

[Odohu]

In my experience, not really.

I do like to betting on the underdogs because I feel like the amount I spent to make analysis will worth it since if I won, the return would be big. Betting on underdogs isn't a strategy, at least for me, I just like it for my own excitement.

I would say, parlay on few favorite match seems more profitable than betting on underdogs.

I find it hard understanding how people feel comfortable putting their money on the underdogs. Some people even play parley with such bets and that compounds the risk. To me it appear like someone deliberately throwing money away even though it work sometimes. The probability of success in this type of bet is very small and almost negligible. On the other hand, playing the stronger team increases the chances of winning which on the average places one at big advantage in the business because the essence of gambling. At the end of the day, it boils down to what works for the individual and that is what really matters.

[o48o]

In sports betting, looking at different markets makes things more complicated since you need to study them all. So I’m thinking, why not simplify it? Since some of you know I’m into NBA sports betting, I figured a way to make it easier, just focusing on betting on the underdog.

So I’d like to ask, is anyone here strictly betting on underdogs, moneyline? If you’re doing the same, or even if you’re not but have some thoughts on it, feel free to share your opinion.

Let’s be profitable in sports betting!

Well let us know how it went after a while. I have thought about it, but then again i don't think i know enough about the teams, or why underdogs should win, so it would be pure random selection and luck with me. That however doesn't differ much from anything i do now with sports betting, so i might give it a try.

Are you looking to find some specific odds or just at the teams / players that are unlikely underdogs?

[Synchronice]

In sports betting, looking at different markets makes things more complicated since you need to study them all. So I’m thinking, why not simplify it? Since some of you know I’m into NBA sports betting, I figured a way to make it easier, just focusing on betting on the underdog.

So I’d like to ask, is anyone here strictly betting on underdogs, moneyline? If you’re doing the same, or even if you’re not but have some thoughts on it, feel free to share your opinion.

Let’s be profitable in sports betting!

Why should I regularly bet on underdog? It usually means that the person or the club has less chance of winning. I don't care about underdogs or favorites, I bet on the person or team that I think is going to win. I mostly place a bet on UFC events and a few weeks ago there was a fight of Merab Dvalishvili VS Umar Nurmagomedov. Merab Dvalishvili was an underdog in this fight but you know what? I didn't care, his odd was higher than 3.0, I placed a bet on him and I won lots of money. The reason why I placed a bet on him is that I watch UFC regularly and I read lots of information about fighters. I'm a fan of Merab and I think I know what he is capable of. I knew that he was going to win against Umar, I was very shocked when I saw him as an underdog but I ignored it and placed a bet, which I won and I'm very happy for that.

I suggest you to not care about who is underdog or not. If your brain and heart tells that underdog is going to win, place a bet on underdog but if it's telling you to bet on a favorite, then bet on favorite. Sometimes favorites win, sometimes underdogs win, you need to place a bet on both of them at the right time.

[Zwei]

And the most important point to pay attention to is the motivation. Often, the less fortunate teams have additional motivations, such as the desire to prove themselves or escape the relegation zone in the league.

you can see this happening all the time in esports, especially in games like counter strike. in the early stages of many events, some underdog teams often perform better than top teams.

In my opinion, when bookmakers place the odds, they have analyzed all the details of the game, so it is very difficult for the bookmaker to make a mistake. If you take $10 and place $1 on each underdog that has odds of @7.00, you will see that in the 10 games you will only get 1 right. Then, if you repeat the same process, you may not get the 10 games right. In the long run, you will only have losses.

bookmakers do make mistakes, and for you to acualy make money with this, you don't just bet on every underdog. you need to look for a value bet, where the underdog actually has a chance of winning, but the odds don't reflect that.

[freedomgo]

bookmakers do make mistakes, and for you to acualy make money with this, you don't just bet on every underdog. you need to look for a value bet, where the underdog actually has a chance of winning, but the odds don't reflect that.

To do that, you need a system that shows you all the stats for your analysis. So, i want to share a website that gives me all the info I need, btw I'm using the free version (they offer a premium one too I guess), and it's been a game changer for me.

This is the one I'm talking about: https://www.teamrankings.com/ - maybe other gamblers can check it out if they haven't already.

[jossiel]

It's not profitable.

You will not have an idea when the underogs will win and that's why you need to still look on the teams involve even if you'd be laser focused into betting only with the underdogs.

Because it's like betting mostly on just one bet no matter what you'd see. That's why it's still best to check the value before doing it.

[passwordnow]

Sometimes it is for me. I like looking at the underdogs especially in Dota 2. The game itself is unpredictable that's why sometimes they're attractive to bet on. But not most times I am winning those underdogs and that's why it's fine to get into these bets for as long as you're ready to lose. Many seem to be securing with their words on themselves about betting on underdogs but it takes balls to do that when you know who are playing and which you are betting for.

And the most important point to pay attention to is the motivation. Often, the less fortunate teams have additional motivations, such as the desire to prove themselves or escape the relegation zone in the league.

you can see this happening all the time in esports, especially in games like counter strike. in the early stages of many events, some underdog teams often perform better than top teams.

That's right so, this is mostly applicable to esports IMO.

[GreatArkansas]

It's not profitable.

You will not have an idea when the underogs will win and that's why you need to still look on the teams involve even if you'd be laser focused into betting only with the underdogs.

Because it's like betting mostly on just one bet no matter what you'd see. That's why it's still best to check the value before doing it.

Correct, in the long run, it's not profitable because sometimes you need to consider every odds and even if you have higher odds to win betting on the fact that it has got low chance of winning will still matter. And there's a reason for every match that why the odds are like that, sometimes even undergo got low odds because of some team issues or upcoming match has some problem within the team.

[Julien_Olynpic]

Betting on underdogs is a completely working strategy and can be used. But it, like many other things, has its advantages and disadvantages. First, we can analyze the advantages of betting on an underdog. First, everyone knows that one of the teams is an underdog, including the bookmaker. That is why he includes in his odds the fact that the underdog is likely to lose. A small probability of winning for an underdog creates a high winning coefficient. And this allows you to get a large amount in case of a win. In addition, it is much more interesting to watch an underdog win than a favorite win, because in this case we have intrigue that the audience likes. The disadvantages of betting on an underdog are that underdogs rarely win. And in most cases, a player who bets on an underdog will lose his bet. Nevertheless, we periodically hear about stunning victories of newcomers and underdogs.

[tsaroz]

In sports betting, looking at different markets makes things more complicated since you need to study them all. So I’m thinking, why not simplify it? Since some of you know I’m into NBA sports betting, I figured a way to make it easier, just focusing on betting on the underdog.

So I’d like to ask, is anyone here strictly betting on underdogs, moneyline? If you’re doing the same, or even if you’re not but have some thoughts on it, feel free to share your opinion.

Let’s be profitable in sports betting!

There's always a bias going towards the big teams or player that most of the people would not notice the recent results and forms of less know teams. If analyzed properly, betting on underdogs can be a profitable venture. The underdogs gets a huge odds sometimes upto x5 and if you go with combining it with some parlay or going for other match specific bets, it's going to get higher.
Sometimes the bets are not that risky. In football, if you look at a high scoring underdog team and a top team, the odds would for win or loss would be as expected but there are some lesser looked at odds like both team scoring which is highly probable when such two teams play and it would be higher than the odds for win for the strong team and would be a safer bet in case the underdog team loses.

[Smartprofit]

I really enjoy reading books by the famous trader and philosopher Nassim Taleb. In particular, I really like his concept of a Black Swan. A Black Swan is an unlikely event that has big consequences. Nassim Taleb claimed that Black Swans are much more common than people expect.

Therefore, betting on such events in trading and gambling is a very effective strategy. Nassim Taleb has developed his own gaming system based on betting on unlikely events.

Therefore, in my opinion, betting on underdogs is quite an effective strategy, because high final winnings can pay off all the money spent by the player.

At the same time, it is not enough to simply bet on an underdog team, you need to conduct your own additional research to make sure that the sports team (the underdog) really has a high enough chance of winning.

[Dewi Aries]

It's not profitable.

You will not have an idea when the underogs will win and that's why you need to still look on the teams involve even if you'd be laser focused into betting only with the underdogs.

Because it's like betting mostly on just one bet no matter what you'd see. That's why it's still best to check the value before doing it.

Correct, in the long run, it's not profitable because sometimes you need to consider every odds and even if you have higher odds to win betting on the fact that it has got low chance of winning will still matter. And there's a reason for every match that why the odds are like that, sometimes even undergo got low odds because of some team issues or upcoming match has some problem within the team.

Yes, it is a fact that in the long run the success rate is very small, none other than because in this situation we bet by relying on low odds such as choosing a team that is not too favored which is rationally clear that it is a team that has a very small chance of winning, maybe it can be said that success by betting on low odds will only happen occasionally or very rarely.

Besides, I think why do we bet on low odds if for example there is a team that is much more favored to win because after all getting a win is much more fun than going home empty-handed or with a defeat, but that doesn't mean we gamble to earn money.

[KTChampions]

In sports betting, looking at different markets makes things more complicated since you need to study them all. So I’m thinking, why not simplify it? Since some of you know I’m into NBA sports betting, I figured a way to make it easier, just focusing on betting on the underdog.

So I’d like to ask, is anyone here strictly betting on underdogs, moneyline? If you’re doing the same, or even if you’re not but have some thoughts on it, feel free to share your opinion.

Let’s be profitable in sports betting!

Check out buwaytress thread, he's been betting on underdogs for several years (and obvious ones, where the odds are close to 10.0). Betting on the underdog is not the only factor for success, you need to look for the most optimal odds, but I think you will find his thread interesting. It would be nice if, when you start betting (if you decide to), you would also keep public statistics.

[buwaytress]

Check out buwaytress thread, he's been betting on underdogs for several years (and obvious ones, where the odds are close to 10.0). Betting on the underdog is not the only factor for success, you need to look for the most optimal odds, but I think you will find his thread interesting. It would be nice if, when you start betting (if you decide to), you would also keep public statistics.

Man, thank you for noting that, you've actually been one of the few to really understand the value of longshot bets. tadus/OP, as KTC notes, it really isn't just about picking the underdog, but at least on some level of understanding of how those odds correspond to the actual probability. To put in in simplest terms... +900 (I use American odds here since you're looking at NBA) should mean that event must happen at least 1 in 10 games.

More often that not, the odds I pick in that thread correspond to far better probability when you take into account recent form and results.

Now if you discipline yourself to track your NBA picks religiously for several season, then you can form an opinion on whether it actually works or not.

P.S. It brings me to a somewhat sad admission that last season, I was not able to give the thread proper attention and it has also just been neglected this season. Call it personal mismanagement of time, at worst, call it real life at best. I would love to be able to resume that thread with frequency, hopefully next season, but I would love even better a spiritual successor.

[sompitonov]

Yes, it is a fact that in the long run the success rate is very small, none other than because in this situation we bet by relying on low odds such as choosing a team that is not too favored which is rationally clear that it is a team that has a very small chance of winning, maybe it can be said that success by betting on low odds will only happen occasionally or very rarely.

Besides, I think why do we bet on low odds if for example there is a team that is much more favored to win because after all getting a win is much more fun than going home empty-handed or with a defeat, but that doesn't mean we gamble to earn money.

I always liked to bet on underdogs, but not with huge odds, like 10 for example, I like odds from 2.5 to 4.5 more. Professionalism plays a big role here, seeing the fine points, making decisions on bets, but not on all of them, but only on those in which we feel and think that it wins with a much higher probability than real odds.

If we take low odds, then I will never make such a bet, even with a large volume, because to be honest I am tired of constantly reading, even here on our forum, how someone bet huge money on low odds, for example 1.05 and lost. It is terribly boring, if you lose, then on high odds, but with a smaller volume.

[Mia Chloe]

Man, thank you for noting that, you've actually been one of the few to really understand the value of longshot bets. tadus/OP, as KTC notes, it really isn't just about picking the underdog, but at least on some level of understanding of how those odds correspond to the actual probability. To put in in simplest terms... +900 (I use American odds here since you're looking at NBA) should mean that event must happen at least 1 in 10 games.

Thumbs up to you on your success over the years in gambling and that fact is I too have come across those threads and they are really nice because I noticed it's easy to often come across gamblers generally, however it's difficult to come across gamblers that are actually profitable.
Many are simply losing and then recovering it back and because of the time span involved they may appear profitable however they are just spinning around the area of even and losing.

[BitMaxz]

I find it hard understanding how people feel comfortable putting their money on the underdogs. Some people even play parley with such bets and that compounds the risk. To me it appear like someone deliberately throwing money away even though it work sometimes. The probability of success in this type of bet is very small and almost negligible. On the other hand, playing the stronger team increases the chances of winning which on the average places one at big advantage in the business because the essence of gambling. At the end of the day, it boils down to what works for the individual and that is what really matters.

I think the reason why they risk their money to underdog it's because of the odds we are not the same but some people might be attractive to higher rewards if they bet on the underdog.
Or maybe it is his/her favorite player that's why even he/she knows the team will lose s/he still bet on that team. Fans actually doing this because they love the team.

For me, I don't want to waste my money into this I always make sure to analyze the game and the team before I bet.

[bisdak40]

In sports betting, looking at different markets makes things more complicated since you need to study them all. So I’m thinking, why not simplify it? Since some of you know I’m into NBA sports betting, I figured a way to make it easier, just focusing on betting on the underdog.

So I’d like to ask, is anyone here strictly betting on underdogs, moneyline? If you’re doing the same, or even if you’re not but have some thoughts on it, feel free to share your opinion.

Let’s be profitable in sports betting!

Back in the year 2019, i did make an experiment on betting on the underdogs without any analysis on our national basketball league, the PBA. I only bet on 30 games and it was a little bit profitable. I don't know if 30 games were conclusive to say that betting on the underdogs is profitable but i could say that betting on the favorites ML is not a wise move.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5145323.msg51139456#msg51139456

[TheUltraElite]

Underdog as a term should not demean the chances of betting on that team. They have a less chance of winning the game, agreed but games often take outright unexpected turns and that is what the luck factor is in sports betting when it comes to the point of view of the gambler.

Anybody can win any match is what I understand, you have to make the bet and you have to put your luck at stake to see whether you are going to make money from it in an irreversible manner.

Some people like underdogs, but there is no place for emotions here. See their track records, see the lineups and how they performed in the last few matches. Ultimately your luck will determine whether you win or not.

[Accardo]

Yes, it is a fact that in the long run the success rate is very small, none other than because in this situation we bet by relying on low odds such as choosing a team that is not too favored which is rationally clear that it is a team that has a very small chance of winning, maybe it can be said that success by betting on low odds will only happen occasionally or very rarely.

Besides, I think why do we bet on low odds if for example there is a team that is much more favored to win because after all getting a win is much more fun than going home empty-handed or with a defeat, but that doesn't mean we gamble to earn money.

Provided gaming has no static strategy players must be dynamic with decisions. Just as faulty as it is to rely only on less favored teams, it's tiring to play a specific pattern. When the chances are less for the underdog, of what use would it be to side them? Gamblers are known for their calculated moves or choices there are times when the small teams show remarkable progress, such moments is right to wager on the less favored team.