|
K128kevin2
|
 |
May 05, 2014, 01:41:52 PM |
|
you are not accurate at all, like someone said, looking at todays price is not the same as looking at future, you can not predict price, when will you realise that ? this is not sports and you know your odds (proximately) and put a bet on whatever you think might win. This is financial market, where price is only about supply and demand. We can estimate supply, but you will never know the demand.
Historic prices are absolutely an indicator of future prices. This system is not perfect and it will certainly be wrong sometimes, but it is absolutely possible to predict prices reasonably well. Prices fluctuations aren't random - they occur in patterns. Regardless of what causes these patterns, they are recurring patterns which means they are predictable. Just because you and I can't see these patterns when we look at the data doesn't mean prices are random. And anything that is not random is predictable (i.e. everything). The neural network I have here certainly has room for improvement and I'm working on doing that now, but it still does reasonably well - better than any human would come close to doing. |
|
|
|
|
|
r34tr783tr78
|
|
May 05, 2014, 03:09:51 PM |
|
reality is what doesn't go away when you stop believing it
Or, it's a damn luck when the facts don't go our way.
|
|
|
|
|
dunchy
|
|
May 05, 2014, 04:40:55 PM |
|
I don't think this works. But anyway, I like your attitude. Read some of the comments from your website and I see you're really open to describe the algo. Thanks!
What are other methods that might be applicable for this ? Can you recommend some literature or place on the web ?
|
|
|
|
|
|
K128kevin2
|
|
May 05, 2014, 06:41:48 PM |
|
I don't think this works. But anyway, I like your attitude. Read some of the comments from your website and I see you're really open to describe the algo. Thanks!
What are other methods that might be applicable for this ? Can you recommend some literature or place on the web ?
Haha well I'm glad you are supportive! Another method that has been thrown around, which would require a significant period of time collecting data, would be to incorporate data from news sources. I believe that keeping track of the number of certain types of words that appear on Twitter or in other places on the internet could be extremely effective in predicting price movement. This data would be used in addition to historic data as inputs to the neural network. The only problem is that for this to be effective, you would need to collect data for at least half a year or so, and even then it would still be far from an ideal amount of data. As far as literature, I learned about neural networks in a class at school, but our textbook is a pretty good source of information about them. You can find it online somewhere or torrent it for free. This is the book: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_Intelligence:_A_Modern_ApproachThe book talks about a lot more than just neural networks, and it's a pretty good resource about AI. |
|
|
|
|
Cassius
Legendary
 Offline
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1031
|
|
May 07, 2014, 04:12:59 PM |
|
Why not start with just one data stream - perhaps Twitter? See how it correlates in the broad strokes and add to it bit by bit.
Also don't forget blockchain.info charts.
|
|
|
|
|
|
K128kevin2
|
|
May 08, 2014, 12:26:49 AM |
|
Why not start with just one data stream - perhaps Twitter? See how it correlates in the broad strokes and add to it bit by bit.
Also don't forget blockchain.info charts.
Yeah I plan to start collecting data from Twitter at some point, just haven't gotten around to it yet. Like I've said though, it will be a while before there is enough data to make reasonable predictions. Oh and the big logistical issue is that once I write a program for collecting Twitter data, I need something for it to run on 24/7. Might just have to buy another VPS. |
|
|
|
|
|
DustyRah
|
|
May 08, 2014, 03:43:41 AM |
|
You are an idiot to try and claim that you can predict BTC. That will be all.
|
|
|
|
|
|
cech4204a
|
|
May 08, 2014, 07:38:27 AM |
|
when will people realise that predicting price is imposible? nobody will ever know how to predict price on independent market, thats the fact. If that would be posible, nobody would ever be on that market for trading. Trading is about hope, no certainty here. People are affected by emotions, they are irrational and so on...
|
Bitcoin is DEAD
|
|
|
Cassius
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1031
|
|
May 08, 2014, 08:10:47 AM |
|
when will people realise that predicting price is imposible? nobody will ever know how to predict price on independent market, thats the fact. If that would be posible, nobody would ever be on that market for trading. Trading is about hope, no certainty here. People are affected by emotions, they are irrational and so on...
Predicting a given price at a given time accurately is impossible. However, it is clearly possible to understand broad trends and even micro-trends. If you don't understand this then get yourself a book on elementary technical analysis. None of this is rocket science or magic. It's simply about understanding what the trend is and how trends are changing before most other speculators pick up on it. A little bit like forecasting the weather from changes in air density, perhaps. If you know what you are looking for then you can gain a very good idea of what's going to happen in the near future. The weather is part of a complex system, too. But you wouldn't suggest that no one is capable of predicting with a reasonable degree of success whether it's going to rain tomorrow, assuming they're using the right tools? |
|
|
|
|
|
cech4204a
|
|
May 08, 2014, 08:26:49 AM |
|
when will people realise that predicting price is imposible? nobody will ever know how to predict price on independent market, thats the fact. If that would be posible, nobody would ever be on that market for trading. Trading is about hope, no certainty here. People are affected by emotions, they are irrational and so on...
Predicting a given price at a given time accurately is impossible. However, it is clearly possible to understand broad trends and even micro-trends. If you don't understand this then get yourself a book on elementary technical analysis. None of this is rocket science or magic. It's simply about understanding what the trend is and how trends are changing before most other speculators pick up on it. A little bit like forecasting the weather from changes in air density, perhaps. If you know what you are looking for then you can gain a very good idea of what's going to happen in the near future. The weather is part of a complex system, too. But you wouldn't suggest that no one is capable of predicting with a reasonable degree of success whether it's going to rain tomorrow, assuming they're using the right tools? ok tell me than, wise man, will be the price in 1 week from now higher or lower than 450$ ? and please don't compare weather with market, it's not the same (btw, i'm master in finance and i know what you are talking about, but predicting trends for future ? not in BTC market). |
Bitcoin is DEAD
|
|
|
|
Asrael999
|
|
May 08, 2014, 09:02:25 AM |
|
when will people realise that predicting price is imposible? nobody will ever know how to predict price on independent market, thats the fact. If that would be posible, nobody would ever be on that market for trading. Trading is about hope, no certainty here. People are affected by emotions, they are irrational and so on...
Predicting a given price at a given time accurately is impossible. However, it is clearly possible to understand broad trends and even micro-trends. If you don't understand this then get yourself a book on elementary technical analysis. None of this is rocket science or magic. It's simply about understanding what the trend is and how trends are changing before most other speculators pick up on it. A little bit like forecasting the weather from changes in air density, perhaps. If you know what you are looking for then you can gain a very good idea of what's going to happen in the near future. The weather is part of a complex system, too. But you wouldn't suggest that no one is capable of predicting with a reasonable degree of success whether it's going to rain tomorrow, assuming they're using the right tools? ok tell me than, wise man, will be the price in 1 week from now higher or lower than 450$ ? and please don't compare weather with market, it's not the same (btw, i'm master in finance and i know what you are talking about, but predicting trends for future ? not in BTC market). Oooh a 50/50 coin toss - I will go lower as an emotional hedge. I can be happy if the price has gone up as I own bitcoin and I can be happy if the price has gone down as I was right.  |
|
|
|
|
Cassius
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1031
|
|
May 08, 2014, 09:29:07 AM |
|
when will people realise that predicting price is imposible? nobody will ever know how to predict price on independent market, thats the fact. If that would be posible, nobody would ever be on that market for trading. Trading is about hope, no certainty here. People are affected by emotions, they are irrational and so on...
Predicting a given price at a given time accurately is impossible. However, it is clearly possible to understand broad trends and even micro-trends. If you don't understand this then get yourself a book on elementary technical analysis. None of this is rocket science or magic. It's simply about understanding what the trend is and how trends are changing before most other speculators pick up on it. A little bit like forecasting the weather from changes in air density, perhaps. If you know what you are looking for then you can gain a very good idea of what's going to happen in the near future. The weather is part of a complex system, too. But you wouldn't suggest that no one is capable of predicting with a reasonable degree of success whether it's going to rain tomorrow, assuming they're using the right tools? ok tell me than, wise man, will be the price in 1 week from now higher or lower than 450$ ? and please don't compare weather with market, it's not the same (btw, i'm master in finance and i know what you are talking about, but predicting trends for future ? not in BTC market). Well you just totally destroyed that straw man. I don't know. I'm not a trader. Or a weatherman. If I guess correctly, will you admit I'm right? If I guess wrong, will you take this as confirmation that you were right? If not, this test might be a bit asymmetric... But you've already said you know what I mean. For what it's worth, it does look like we are coming to the end of a five-month downtrend in the next week or two, if we haven't already. So if I was a trader, I'd be seriously considering going long at this point. I certainly wouldn't rule out another dip first and would keep an option open for sub-400, though curiously that is looking less and less likely. I'm happy to concede that (if it doesn't happen) I had called that one wrong. But claiming that bitcoin is just totally unpredictable (do you mean random?) doesn't make sense to me. You only have to look at the chart on the front page of Stamp to get an overall sense of what's going on. Plus, as a master in Finance, I'm sure you've studied bubbles and the similarities between them. |
|
|
|
|
|
TrailingComet
|
|
May 08, 2014, 10:38:10 AM |
|
I will bet against
Think we will be $350 to $450 for the next week or two
|
|
|
|
boumalo
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1918
Merit: 1018
|
|
May 08, 2014, 11:23:57 AM |
|
I will bet against
Think we will be $350 to $450 for the next week or two
The prediction was April 03 and he lost |
|
|
|
|
akujin
|
|
May 08, 2014, 11:27:15 AM |
|
when will people realise that predicting price is imposible? nobody will ever know how to predict price on independent market, thats the fact. If that would be posible, nobody would ever be on that market for trading. Trading is about hope, no certainty here. People are affected by emotions, they are irrational and so on...
Predicting a given price at a given time accurately is impossible. However, it is clearly possible to understand broad trends and even micro-trends. If you don't understand this then get yourself a book on elementary technical analysis. None of this is rocket science or magic. It's simply about understanding what the trend is and how trends are changing before most other speculators pick up on it. A little bit like forecasting the weather from changes in air density, perhaps. If you know what you are looking for then you can gain a very good idea of what's going to happen in the near future. The weather is part of a complex system, too. But you wouldn't suggest that no one is capable of predicting with a reasonable degree of success whether it's going to rain tomorrow, assuming they're using the right tools? ok tell me than, wise man, will be the price in 1 week from now higher or lower than 450$ ? and please don't compare weather with market, it's not the same (btw, i'm master in finance and i know what you are talking about, but predicting trends for future ? not in BTC market). idiot  |
BTC: 165rKPfGJ3ndrG1QziHR6ACnViP4EQHNK7
LTC: LMysGMFjmF9gR9RzStij74msXrDP1NqW8X
DOGE: DRZXGgcKN8kANwko3VycsBVVGqfy6XsSpM
|
|
|
|
cech4204a
|
|
May 08, 2014, 12:16:47 PM |
|
when will people realise that predicting price is imposible? nobody will ever know how to predict price on independent market, thats the fact. If that would be posible, nobody would ever be on that market for trading. Trading is about hope, no certainty here. People are affected by emotions, they are irrational and so on...
Predicting a given price at a given time accurately is impossible. However, it is clearly possible to understand broad trends and even micro-trends. If you don't understand this then get yourself a book on elementary technical analysis. None of this is rocket science or magic. It's simply about understanding what the trend is and how trends are changing before most other speculators pick up on it. A little bit like forecasting the weather from changes in air density, perhaps. If you know what you are looking for then you can gain a very good idea of what's going to happen in the near future. The weather is part of a complex system, too. But you wouldn't suggest that no one is capable of predicting with a reasonable degree of success whether it's going to rain tomorrow, assuming they're using the right tools? ok tell me than, wise man, will be the price in 1 week from now higher or lower than 450$ ? and please don't compare weather with market, it's not the same (btw, i'm master in finance and i know what you are talking about, but predicting trends for future ? not in BTC market). Well you just totally destroyed that straw man. I don't know. I'm not a trader. Or a weatherman. If I guess correctly, will you admit I'm right? If I guess wrong, will you take this as confirmation that you were right? If not, this test might be a bit asymmetric... But you've already said you know what I mean. For what it's worth, it does look like we are coming to the end of a five-month downtrend in the next week or two, if we haven't already. So if I was a trader, I'd be seriously considering going long at this point. I certainly wouldn't rule out another dip first and would keep an option open for sub-400, though curiously that is looking less and less likely. I'm happy to concede that (if it doesn't happen) I had called that one wrong. But claiming that bitcoin is just totally unpredictable (do you mean random?) doesn't make sense to me. You only have to look at the chart on the front page of Stamp to get an overall sense of what's going on. Plus, as a master in Finance, I'm sure you've studied bubbles and the similarities between them. Bubles are natural, even in nature bubles happen (example is population of mices on island) , here on the long run another will happen, but we can not tell when and how big one...we can just put tumb up or down thats all...and might be wrong |
Bitcoin is DEAD
|
|
|
Cassius
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1031
|
|
May 08, 2014, 12:32:07 PM |
|
when will people realise that predicting price is imposible? nobody will ever know how to predict price on independent market, thats the fact. If that would be posible, nobody would ever be on that market for trading. Trading is about hope, no certainty here. People are affected by emotions, they are irrational and so on...
Predicting a given price at a given time accurately is impossible. However, it is clearly possible to understand broad trends and even micro-trends. If you don't understand this then get yourself a book on elementary technical analysis. None of this is rocket science or magic. It's simply about understanding what the trend is and how trends are changing before most other speculators pick up on it. A little bit like forecasting the weather from changes in air density, perhaps. If you know what you are looking for then you can gain a very good idea of what's going to happen in the near future. The weather is part of a complex system, too. But you wouldn't suggest that no one is capable of predicting with a reasonable degree of success whether it's going to rain tomorrow, assuming they're using the right tools? ok tell me than, wise man, will be the price in 1 week from now higher or lower than 450$ ? and please don't compare weather with market, it's not the same (btw, i'm master in finance and i know what you are talking about, but predicting trends for future ? not in BTC market). Well you just totally destroyed that straw man. I don't know. I'm not a trader. Or a weatherman. If I guess correctly, will you admit I'm right? If I guess wrong, will you take this as confirmation that you were right? If not, this test might be a bit asymmetric... But you've already said you know what I mean. For what it's worth, it does look like we are coming to the end of a five-month downtrend in the next week or two, if we haven't already. So if I was a trader, I'd be seriously considering going long at this point. I certainly wouldn't rule out another dip first and would keep an option open for sub-400, though curiously that is looking less and less likely. I'm happy to concede that (if it doesn't happen) I had called that one wrong. But claiming that bitcoin is just totally unpredictable (do you mean random?) doesn't make sense to me. You only have to look at the chart on the front page of Stamp to get an overall sense of what's going on. Plus, as a master in Finance, I'm sure you've studied bubbles and the similarities between them. Bubles are natural, even in nature bubles happen (example is population of mices on island) , here on the long run another will happen, but we can not tell when and how big one...we can just put tumb up or down thats all...and might be wrong That's the one point you come back on?! Top of a bubble, the price goes down. Unsustainable growth, near vertical price rise -> pop, crash. Like has just happened. That I consider predictable. You, by all accounts, don't. Come on, if you're going to challenge someone on something that is so obvious to the majority that it barely needs stating, then at least give me something to work with. |
|
|
|
|
|
akujin
|
|
May 08, 2014, 12:39:09 PM |
|
|
BTC: 165rKPfGJ3ndrG1QziHR6ACnViP4EQHNK7
LTC: LMysGMFjmF9gR9RzStij74msXrDP1NqW8X
DOGE: DRZXGgcKN8kANwko3VycsBVVGqfy6XsSpM
|
|
|
Cassius
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1031
|
|
May 08, 2014, 12:42:48 PM |
|
I'll not dirty my hands with anyone who hassles chartbuddy.  |
|
|
|
|
|
K128kevin2
|
|
May 08, 2014, 02:05:31 PM |
|
You can say what you want about the predictions that my site is making right now, but predicting prices is absolutely possible. I find it completely ridiculous that anybody would think otherwise. We've created technology that can make cars drive themselves, we have phones with high definition touch screens that we carry in our pockets, and we've LITERALLY gone to the moon, yet you think predicting the price of bitcoin is impossible?
Anything that has an underlying cause is predictable, and literally everything has an underlying cause, therefore literally everything is predictable. Maybe not everything is predictable in practice, but bitcoin certainly is. The major factors that affect the price are absolutely measurable - it's just a matter of collecting all of the data and using it properly.
Honestly, to think that it is impossible to predict bitcoin prices is naive. We have done so many things that are much more amazing than this.
|
|
|
|
|
|
