Do you bet against the public? let’s talk about it

[Mindyspace]

"I haven't started betting yet, but I found this strategy and the points about going against public opinion quite interesting. I'm trying to better understand how it works in practice and what signals really indicate value. It's good to see different points of view to learn before putting it into practice, because I don't really want to just gamble and end up losing everything without strategies; it's always good to think and rethink before acting, especially in public."

[joniboini]

If you count trading experience, I guess I have done this before. I think I had no analysis at that time and just focused on trying to swing my money quickly, so it feels like gambling away my funds. I think it's a bit naive to think that betting against the mainstream is going to give you some unique advantage, especially when the number of quotes like "be greedy when everyone is in fear" is spread like gospel nowadays. Even if it doesn't make sense due to the different context, market can be irrational too (just like gamblers). CMIIW.

[bubilas]

If you count trading experience, I guess I have done this before. I think I had no analysis at that time and just focused on trying to swing my money quickly, so it feels like gambling away my funds. I think it's a bit naive to think that betting against the mainstream is going to give you some unique advantage, especially when the number of quotes like "be greedy when everyone is in fear" is spread like gospel nowadays. Even if it doesn't make sense due to the different context, market can be irrational too (just like gamblers). CMIIW.

Trading experience is crucial for understanding how people think. I have that experience, and in the cryptocurrency market, going against the crowd is always a good idea; it usually leads to profit. But gambling and betting are a different story. I can't imagine going against the crowd in gambling, but in betting, you can do it by betting on a wild card. Does it always make sense to bet against the favorites? No, it depends on each specific situation.

[xenomorfo]

There are times that your instincts just tells you to go with an option that might seem funny to others but at the end of the day you might end up winning your bet. In gambling there's nothing that's impossible, even the more outrageous option that doesn't make sense to other gamblers has a chance.of playing out. Betting against the public sometimes isn't an easy choice but the results are always worth the risk

Yes, well done, i agree with you, there is nothing impossible in gambling.
Maybe it happens that the weaker team beats the stronger one, for example, things that happen every day
Of course, it's not common, but it happens. So why force yourself to play rigidly, without fun, when the outcome is uncertain?

[Natalim]

"I haven't started betting yet, but I found this strategy and the points about going against public opinion quite interesting. I'm trying to better understand how it works in practice and what signals really indicate value. It's good to see different points of view to learn before putting it into practice, because I don't really want to just gamble and end up losing everything without strategies; it's always good to think and rethink before acting, especially in public."

If you find it interesting, don’t just let it slip out of your mind, try to dig deeper and understand what the term really means, because it exists for a reason. We can’t truly enjoy sports betting if we just keep doing the same thing over and over. We need to challenge ourselves, aim higher, and try to reach that goal only a few can achieve and that is winning in the long run.

[Dr.Bitcoin_Strange]

It's no different than betting for underdog, we want to take the risk and the reward also bigger if we get it right. I don't see any strategy behind for that, we simply do that for two reasons like I said bigger rewards or in this case if it's like an event and you bet for unpopular opinion then that unpopular opinion is aligning with your mindset more than the majority of the users.

You are right mate. The public opinion/bet will always be large if they bet of favorite team and also knows which team that will stand the better chance, that's why the odd of the game will go reduce. Going against the pick of the public is high risk but have a higher reward if successful. It's just a matter of being able to take or handle the risk. Otherwise, going for underdog is now better for me, that's why I said in my previous comment that I will bet on the option that aligned with my prediction.

[YOSHIE]

can we share some insights here, maybe we’ll pick up new ways to spot real value plays.

The concept of "betting against the public" is generally placing bets against the grain, placing bets on the opposite side of winning I've ever done, if you're talking about sports.
Like: Boxing if the public bets on boxer A of course I will also review boxer B if both are unpopular I will place opposite bets.
Likewise with football clubs and other sports.

The point is "betting against the public" or against depending on the strength of the opponent, for example: Arsenal vs. Liverpool, in general the public will bet on Liverpool of course I also dare to place a bet on Arsenal against the public and so on.

[Roseline492]

"I haven't started betting yet, but I found this strategy and the points about going against public opinion quite interesting. I'm trying to better understand how it works in practice and what signals really indicate value.

The game is very simple to understand even if you have not gamble before because is what that has been there all the time but maybe because of the name they called it you might be thinking is one big method or even a new gambling style that has just been recently use by the public. Since you have not bet yet I will explain it the way will understand it, so what they actually meant by that is that 90 percent of the public says or mentioned the name of the club that will win and they all stick to the club being optimistic of wining, so being against them is when you decided to bet for the side they said will loss so that what is saying.

[dunfida]

"I haven't started betting yet, but I found this strategy and the points about going against public opinion quite interesting. I'm trying to better understand how it works in practice and what signals really indicate value.

The game is very simple to understand even if you have not gamble before because is what that has been there all the time but maybe because of the name they called it you might be thinking is one big method or even a new gambling style that has just been recently use by the public. Since you have not bet yet I will explain it the way will understand it, so what they actually meant by that is that 90 percent of the public says or mentioned the name of the club that will win and they all stick to the club being optimistic of wining, so being against them is when you decided to bet for the side they said will loss so that what is saying.

The idea behind going against public opinion or what’s often called fading the public is actually a very old betting approach it’s built on the belief that the majority of casual bettors usually follow hype emotion or media narratives instead of logic and statistics when too many people bet on one side bookmakers tend to adjust the odds to balance their risk which often gives slightly better value on the opposite side.

For example if 90% of the bets are going toward team A to win the odds for team A will drop because so many people are betting on it while the odds for team B will rise to attract more bets on that side this is where experienced bettors see an opportunity they assume the line has been pushed too far in favor of the popular choice and by betting on the underdog or the less favored team they are getting higher potential value compared to the actual probability of that team winning. It doesn’t mean you’ll always win because being contrarian is not magic it just increases your long term edge when the crowd is consistently wrong it works best when combined with data analysis for example checking injuries travel schedules team fatigue or weather conditions if those factors contradict the public opinion that’s usually a strong indicator of value.

[o48o]

i know abou this so-called betting against the public strategy. I kinda get the idea behind it like when the majority is leaning one side, the line tends to move and value might appear on the other. But I’d like to hear how others here actually apply it in real betting situations.

What specific factors do you look at before deciding to fade the public? Is it the percentage of bets vs. money or sharp line movement, or some team hype?
I want to know the details on what triggers your decision before placing the bet, not just the basic “because the public is on it.”

can we share some insights here, maybe we’ll pick up new ways to spot real value plays.

When i am fan of something, i might bet for them. Also there are ton of other people betting the underdog just because odds might be worth it. Especially with value bets there are constantly overvalued and undervalued odds by bookmakers.

Have you ever bet for a draw? Because those are happening all the time, but "public" isn't betting for them. Personally i don't put too much trust in public opinion anyway.

[Slow death]

The reality is that most people don't take much time to analyze games thoroughly, so they simply bet on the big team they know. For example, a few days ago there was a game between Rayo Vallecano and Real Madrid. The odds favored Real Madrid to win, and most people bet on a Real Madrid victory, ignoring the head-to-head record between the two teams.

As a result, what we saw was a draw. The few people who didn't ignore the head-to-head record were able to bet on Rayo Vallecano or a draw, which had very high odds and was a bet with a good chance of winning. To summarize: always focus on doing your own analysis and ignore the analysis done by the betting site.

[lionheart78]

I don't know but maybe we have seen gut feelings that the public might be wrong and let's say that this team has the potential to win like factors that can't be measure like they have a big heart and very motivated to show that they belong to the big league.

Some take this as an opportunity to win a bigger amount since betting against the public often give higher odds.  So people who think that the fight is close enough that the match can go either way risk their bet to choose the one who has higher reward.

And most likely this is why some gamblers prefer to bet on the the underdog, pay is huge and again, they might have this feeling that this game might be a different outcome as others might have expected.

Yeah, that is what I am saying betting to the underdog with a good chance of winning.  But obviously, if the match really looks one-sided, and knows that the public choice has a little chance of losing, then I'll go with the public.  It is all depends on the analysis and possibly the gut feeling, it has have huge effect on which one I should bet.

[Tungbulu]

At this point, I tend to rely on my instincts. If everyone is going towards a particular direction because the odds says so, but my instincts says otherwise, I’d follow my instincts without a simple doubt. Sometimes I get lucky and sometimes I don’t, besides, there’s no guarantee that the crowd are gonna win. I’ve sin multiple cases where majority went for a particular direction and it ended in woe, so I’ll simply follow my instincts and if I win I win, and if I don’t, then I don’t. Besides that’s gambling for you.

[Byebyebtc]

Okay from the way I look at this in the football aspect, when there are 2 major teams are to play a very important match probably a rival match or finals  and it is very obvious that the one team is stronger and has the capability to win the other with ease, the weaker team tends to win most of the times,

I will use psg vs Chelsea as an example in club world cup, of cause everyone felt that psg will definitely win the match, but at the back of the Sean Chelsea as a club was working as hard as they can, especially in defense, in a match like that the weaker club tries to work more on their defense making making their opponent find it hard to score, because the match means more to the weaker club than to the higher club,

and in the other hand the higher club tends to underrate the weaker one, so with all these being put together developing courage to bet in Favor of the weaker club in such major games can be easy for.

[SmartGold01]

From you title betting against the public reflects to me as trading against the market.. of course we can as well look into it as gambling; when people keep betting on a particular maybe you think that people are usually betting on a particular club or team and then you will understand that such may not likely happen where you could decides to go the other ways if it would favor you, and such bet people do not usually expect that the lesser team can also win the higher club because ther odds are usually big as more people keeps placing bet against the losing clubs at then you began to see that lesser team odds start increasing.

[letteredhub]

At this point, I tend to rely on my instincts. If everyone is going towards a particular direction because the odds says so, but my instincts says otherwise, I’d follow my instincts without a simple doubt. Sometimes I get lucky and sometimes I don’t, besides, there’s no guarantee that the crowd are gonna win. I’ve sin multiple cases where majority went for a particular direction and it ended in woe, so I’ll simply follow my instincts and if I win I win, and if I don’t, then I don’t. Besides that’s gambling for you.

When we are confused about which direction of the net to take, our instinct becomes the on hand alternative to rely on for what decisions to make with the bet. Just because the crowd are favouring one side in a game doesn't mean the odds are gonna correspond to the impending outcome of the game. Maybe that it could be that's what the bookies wants the most bettors to see, and this happens many times in every league season where we have those teams we desperate as big teams having to play against the smaller teams, it gets the crowd favouring the big side, which isn't even a guarantee. And when am upset happens we see a lot of people losing while those that by instinct took the risk of going the opposite smiling for their profit.

[blomen]

as an ordinary person, betting “against the crowd” doesn't seem very feasible. i guess those who bet against the crowd follow a logic like, “everyone says this will happen, so it won't.” the ironic part here is that the people who think this way and claim to bet against the crowd are actually the “crowd” themselves. you don't know much either, so what you think becomes “the public's opinion.” this is truly a tragicomic situation.

and in such situations, if you take bets thinking that the obvious favorite won't win, you usually end up losing. sometimes there's no need to overthink it.

[Tungbulu]

✂️✂️✂️✂️✂️

When we are confused about which direction of the net to take, our instinct becomes the on hand alternative to rely on for what decisions to make with the bet. Just because the crowd are favouring one side in a game doesn't mean the odds are gonna correspond to the impending outcome of the game. Maybe that it could be that's what the bookies wants the most bettors to see, and this happens many times in every league season where we have those teams we desperate as big teams having to play against the smaller teams, it gets the crowd favouring the big side, which isn't even a guarantee. And when am upset happens we see a lot of people losing while those that by instinct took the risk of going the opposite smiling for their profit.

I remember a certain time I played a game from one of the Turkish leagues, the home team had a mouthwatering odd that implied it would win, and anyone who picked that game would definitely root for the home team to win, and honestly I would’ve also picked the home team as the opposing team’s odds were incredibly high but my instincts kept telling me to pick the other team, which I did and if I had disobeyed my instincts, I would’ve definitely lost that game. I’ve had this experience a couple of times, which has made me to be completely reliant on my instincts.

[hedgeh0g]

as an ordinary person, betting “against the crowd” doesn't seem very feasible. i guess those who bet against the crowd follow a logic like, “everyone says this will happen, so it won't.” the ironic part here is that the people who think this way and claim to bet against the crowd are actually the “crowd” themselves. you don't know much either, so what you think becomes “the public's opinion.” this is truly a tragicomic situation.

and in such situations, if you take bets thinking that the obvious favorite won't win, you usually end up losing. sometimes there's no need to overthink it.

I also think it's easy to overthink and end up complicating the logic behind our betting decisions. Nowadays, you can instantly find information online about what the crowd is betting on, so it's no longer valuable, although such search capabilities weren't available before. I still prefer to analyze the situation with my own brain and find reasons why I should bet on this event. If I find enough reasons, I'll do it, and if not, I'll pass and wait for a better situation. Nevertheless, this approach can sometimes work quite well, but not always when betting against the crowd.

[hyudien]

Betting against the public is profitable but the risks are higher. Careful analysis is crucial to determine whether your chosen team can truly pull off an upset, I think a relatively safer approach is to place a live bet if you're considering this type of bet, observing both teams' performance over a few minutes, this allows you to make more informed decisions and better gauge the potential for going against the crowd.