Polymarket.com - Bets on any events (politics, sports, crypto markets, and more)

[acroman08]

If this bill is conveniently targeting sport markets only and leaving the rest of them alone, then it would be almost a confirmation there is some lobbying behind the origin of this bill and the fact it is getting pushed into law.
Sport betting has become very popular and profitable in the United States after all, since it was made legal by some states in 2018.
It would not be very crazy to assume Kalshi and Polymarket have become too inconvenient for some FIAT bookies and casinos, who are seeing their volume being taken away from them in favor of Polymarket and Kalshi.

Politics and money in the United States seem to be always go one close to the other.

That's the look of it, and to be honest, it's not really surprising(as I mentioned before). Companies lobbying in Congress for their interest is not uncommon. Polymarket and Kalshi have been doing it, it's also probably the reason why they were able to grow this much in such a short time. Also, if you didn't know, Trump jr.(Trump's son) is connected to Kalshi, so you know that these prediction markets have connections in high places in politics.

It would be funny if Kalshi and Polymarket put a betting market on whether the bill that was introduced against them will pass or not.

[Dump3er]

Anyways... I have got the impression there could be hidden interest behind a ban like this one, specially from regulated bookies in the USA which see Polymarket and Kalshi as competition...

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Here's the article in question.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/21/prediction-market-kalshi-polymarket-casino-gaming-lobby-congress.html

If this bill is conveniently targeting sport markets only and leaving the rest of them alone, then it would be almost a confirmation there is some lobbying behind the origin of this bill and the fact it is getting pushed into law.
Sport betting has become very popular and profitable in the United States after all, since it was made legal by some states in 2018.
It would not be very crazy to assume Kalshi and Polymarket have become too inconvenient for some FIAT bookies and casinos, who are seeing their volume being taken away from them in favor of Polymarket and Kalshi.

Politics and money in the United States seem to be always go one close to the other.

Lobbying in the sports betting industry is probably a real thing by now. It would surprise me otherwise. I think the main point they were trying to make a while ago is that these prediction market places aren't regulated the same way that bookmakers are regulated. They don't offer these markets as sports bets, but as financial derivatives and that is why the CFTC is involved. This means they can offer these contracts under better conditions than bookmakers and Kalshi and Polymarket argue that this is not about gambling, but about P2P negotiated future event contracts. It sounds weird to me to be honest because ultimately it is gambling.

The reason why these congressmen go for a ban is that from a legal perspective, achieving a ban is simpler than setting up some sort of newly mixed regulation specifically tailored and passed for these types of contracts that Kalshi and Polymarket offer. I am sure that lobbying is involved though. It would be shocking if not since the gambling industry has become massively powerful.

I think Kalshi and Polymarket could lose this if they insist on these contracts being legitimate financial innovations. It sounds too imaginative to me. Perhaps they should rather accept to go through licensing processes as I don't think courts will decide that these contracts do not count as gambling.

[Hispo]

If this bill is conveniently targeting sport markets only and leaving the rest of them alone, then it would be almost a confirmation there is some lobbying behind the origin of this bill and the fact it is getting pushed into law.
Sport betting has become very popular and profitable in the United States after all, since it was made legal by some states in 2018.
It would not be very crazy to assume Kalshi and Polymarket have become too inconvenient for some FIAT bookies and casinos, who are seeing their volume being taken away from them in favor of Polymarket and Kalshi.

Politics and money in the United States seem to be always go one close to the other.

That's the look of it, and to be honest, it's not really surprising(as I mentioned before). Companies lobbying in Congress for their interest is not uncommon. Polymarket and Kalshi have been doing it, it's also probably the reason why they were able to grow this much in such a short time. Also, if you didn't know, Trump jr.(Trump's son) is connected to Kalshi, so you know that these prediction markets have connections in high places in politics.

It would be funny if Kalshi and Polymarket put a betting market on whether the bill that was introduced against them will pass or not.

Anyways... I have got the impression there could be hidden interest behind a ban like this one, specially from regulated bookies in the USA which see Polymarket and Kalshi as competition...

-
Here's the article in question.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/21/prediction-market-kalshi-polymarket-casino-gaming-lobby-congress.html

If this bill is conveniently targeting sport markets only and leaving the rest of them alone, then it would be almost a confirmation there is some lobbying behind the origin of this bill and the fact it is getting pushed into law.
Sport betting has become very popular and profitable in the United States after all, since it was made legal by some states in 2018.
It would not be very crazy to assume Kalshi and Polymarket have become too inconvenient for some FIAT bookies and casinos, who are seeing their volume being taken away from them in favor of Polymarket and Kalshi.

Politics and money in the United States seem to be always go one close to the other.

Lobbying in the sports betting industry is probably a real thing by now. It would surprise me otherwise. I think the main point they were trying to make a while ago is that these prediction market places aren't regulated the same way that bookmakers are regulated. They don't offer these markets as sports bets, but as financial derivatives and that is why the CFTC is involved. This means they can offer these contracts under better conditions than bookmakers and Kalshi and Polymarket argue that this is not about gambling, but about P2P negotiated future event contracts. It sounds weird to me to be honest because ultimately it is gambling.

The reason why these congressmen go for a ban is that from a legal perspective, achieving a ban is simpler than setting up some sort of newly mixed regulation specifically tailored and passed for these types of contracts that Kalshi and Polymarket offer. I am sure that lobbying is involved though. It would be shocking if not since the gambling industry has become massively powerful.

I think Kalshi and Polymarket could lose this if they insist on these contracts being legitimate financial innovations. It sounds too imaginative to me. Perhaps they should rather accept to go through licensing processes as I don't think courts will decide that these contracts do not count as gambling.

So basically we could be witnessing a battle between lobbyist, some in favor of Kalshi and Polymarket to compete within the ecosystem of sportbetting and other lobbyist which got hired by FIAT and traditional betting platforms, because their market dominance is getting put on testing because of the popularity of Kalshi and Polymarket.

I don't know what you think about all this scenario, but I think there is a very high chance those FIAT bookies will succeed in convincing those lawmakers to exclude polymarket and Kalshi, they have more time in the market, they are more regulated and they alledgelly have more money than these new competitors.

It would be a serious strike against them.

[Lucano]

I have read the 5-minute BTC market situation, but it turns out it is not in line with what the analysis says. Polymarket is not friendly for manual bettors, especially 5-15 minute price predictions because what I see is manipulation in the final seconds. This prediction is profitable for bot users because what I see is almost simultaneously securing a profitable position. Are there any bettors who use bot?

[Hispo]

I have read the 5-minute BTC market situation, but it turns out it is not in line with what the analysis says. Polymarket is not friendly for manual bettors, especially 5-15 minute price predictions because what I see is manipulation in the final seconds. This prediction is profitable for bot users because what I see is almost simultaneously securing a profitable position. Are there any bettors who use bot?

I don't personally use bots for Polymarket, but it is widely known that the 5 minute BTC market in Polymarket is completely plagued with bots seeking to get long term profitability for their handlers, that is not a secret.
They are basically bots which buy massive positions when there is almost a 100% chance for the position to become a reality, so they go with a high amount at very low multipliers, rinse and repeat and they have basically gotten a money printing machine in the long term.

Even though there will be occasions such strategy will fail, in the majority of the times it will turn out a profit for the manager of the bots.

I am not even sure if the use of bots is allowed by Polymarket, by the way.

[Wind_FURY]

What happened to him? He obviously lost $4643.17 for betting based on a post he read in X.

No one would follow up on someone who lost money. We merely leave them alone to lick their wounds. Although, that amount of money might merely be small for that person.

I totally forgot about the 2011 guy with the Argentina 3-2 score prediction and every one thinking he was magical because he chose two strong teams like Spain and Argentina like it was a super hard prediction to make

Gambler streamers and influencers make a lot of money so he will be fine even after losing $4600 in this prediction bet. The views he received and new following already paid if they use his link to gamble

THEN is it probably often the best decision to ignore those people? Because they're definitely farming us for attention, no? We PLEBS are the product of those people. They should probably give their followers more value by giving them more incentives, no?

 

I have read the 5-minute BTC market situation, but it turns out it is not in line with what the analysis says. Polymarket is not friendly for manual bettors, especially 5-15 minute price predictions because what I see is manipulation in the final seconds. This prediction is profitable for bot users because what I see is almost simultaneously securing a profitable position. Are there any bettors who use bot?

If you have no edge, then AVOID the market/game, UNLESS you want to gamble the money that's better invested by HODLing Bitcoin.

[hd49728]

Gambler streamers and influencers make a lot of money so he will be fine even after losing $4600 in this prediction bet. The views he received and new following already paid if they use his link to gamble

It's popular marketing method used by gambling companies by hiring celebrities, influencers on social media to work for them. Live streaming their bets, then results are big wins, which can be very attractive for outsiders. So their companies will get firstly more traffics, and at the end can get more users as well as more money into their casinos for betting.

THEN is it probably often the best decision to ignore those people? Because they're definitely farming us for attention, no? We PLEBS are the product of those people. They should probably give their followers more value by giving them more incentives, no?

Just depends.

Some people don't care about social media, celebrities and influencers but most people among the crowd take it into serious consideration. That explains why there is such marketing method that is favorite and use popularly by many companies, not limited to online casinos.

[Dump3er]

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So basically we could be witnessing a battle between lobbyist, some in favor of Kalshi and Polymarket to compete within the ecosystem of sportbetting and other lobbyist which got hired by FIAT and traditional betting platforms, because their market dominance is getting put on testing because of the popularity of Kalshi and Polymarket.

I don't know what you think about all this scenario, but I think there is a very high chance those FIAT bookies will succeed in convincing those lawmakers to exclude polymarket and Kalshi, they have more time in the market, they are more regulated and they alledgelly have more money than these new competitors.

It would be a serious strike against them.

This is a good question and at first glance I thought you are probably correct that FIAT bookies have more leverage and will push lawmakers towards banning or strictly limiting competing platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, but then it came to my mind again that it is not just the ordinary guys using those prediction markets. Around all those major events in the last few months, like the Iran war and other things that happened, analyses have shown that strange things are going on on those prediction market platforms. Unusually high amounts were placed on outcomes that nobody except for insders could have known about.

I believe this tells us that powerful people like politicians or businessmen or whoever else with influence in the world, actually have an incentive to have these platforms up and running. The US administration knows no limits right now and you probably about Trump's plans to sell early "access to posts from influential Truth Social ‌accounts, such as President Donald Trump’s, whose posts often move global markets."

Further, there were those reports about Polymarket accounts making millions with information that had not yet been public back then as I mentioned above. As long as these platforms offer advantages for those with early access to crucial information, I don't think they will ever be shut down or regulated to a point where continuations is not sustainable.

Regardless of how the fight between prediction market platforms and FIAT bookies ends, I am curious to see how courts will decide. Kalshi and Polymarket argue that their products are financial contracts whereas the bookmakers say that it is no different from sports bets. I can see both sides having good points here, but I believe that Kalshi and Polymarket will have to accept some losses at court along the way because right now under the regulation of the CFTC, they benefit from some advantages and the government is probably mostly interested in taxes, and right now, if I understand it correctly, Kalshi and Polymarket have tax advantages because of how they have positioned themselves thus far. In other words, the government has a strong incentive to crack down on them but only to the point until where they can maximize tax income.