If this bill is conveniently targeting sport markets only and leaving the rest of them alone, then it would be almost a confirmation there is some lobbying behind the origin of this bill and the fact it is getting pushed into law.
Sport betting has become very popular and profitable in the United States after all, since it was made legal by some states in 2018.
It would not be very crazy to assume Kalshi and Polymarket have become too inconvenient for some FIAT bookies and casinos, who are seeing their volume being taken away from them in favor of Polymarket and Kalshi.
Politics and money in the United States seem to be always go one close to the other.
That's the look of it, and to be honest, it's not really surprising(as I mentioned before). Companies lobbying in Congress for their interest is not uncommon. Polymarket and Kalshi have been doing it, it's also probably the reason why they were able to grow this much in such a short time. Also, if you didn't know, Trump jr.(Trump's son) is connected to Kalshi, so you know that these prediction markets have connections in high places in politics.
It would be funny if Kalshi and Polymarket put a betting market on whether the bill that was introduced against them will pass or not.
If this bill is conveniently targeting sport markets only and leaving the rest of them alone, then it would be almost a confirmation there is some lobbying behind the origin of this bill and the fact it is getting pushed into law.
Sport betting has become very popular and profitable in the United States after all, since it was made legal by some states in 2018.
It would not be very crazy to assume Kalshi and Polymarket have become too inconvenient for some FIAT bookies and casinos, who are seeing their volume being taken away from them in favor of Polymarket and Kalshi.
Politics and money in the United States seem to be always go one close to the other.
Lobbying in the sports betting industry is probably a real thing by now. It would surprise me otherwise. I think the main point they were trying to make a while ago is that these prediction market places aren't regulated the same way that bookmakers are regulated. They don't offer these markets as sports bets, but as financial derivatives and that is why the CFTC is involved. This means they can offer these contracts under better conditions than bookmakers and Kalshi and Polymarket argue that this is not about gambling, but about P2P negotiated future event contracts. It sounds weird to me to be honest because ultimately it is gambling.
The reason why these congressmen go for a ban is that from a legal perspective, achieving a ban is simpler than setting up some sort of newly mixed regulation specifically tailored and passed for these types of contracts that Kalshi and Polymarket offer. I am sure that lobbying is involved though. It would be shocking if not since the gambling industry has become massively powerful.
I think Kalshi and Polymarket could lose this if they insist on these contracts being legitimate financial innovations. It sounds too imaginative to me. Perhaps they should rather accept to go through licensing processes as I don't think courts will decide that these contracts do not count as gambling.
So basically we could be witnessing a battle between lobbyist, some in favor of Kalshi and Polymarket to compete within the ecosystem of sportbetting and other lobbyist which got hired by FIAT and traditional betting platforms, because their market dominance is getting put on testing because of the popularity of Kalshi and Polymarket.
I don't know what you think about all this scenario, but I think there is a very high chance those FIAT bookies will succeed in convincing those lawmakers to exclude polymarket and Kalshi, they have more time in the market, they are more regulated and they alledgelly have more money than these new competitors.
It would be a serious strike against them.
