The ultimate battle royale for BTC price prediction | sponsored by 🌐 Bridgoro

[LoyceV]

@Halab: how about using signed messages to post predictions before the deadline without anyone seeing it, and without anyone forcing me to make an early prediction to avoid accusations of cheating on my PM Publisher?

Example:
Post this:

Code:

-----BEGIN BITCOIN SIGNED MESSAGE-----
<My prediction goes here. I will not edit this post>
-----BEGIN SIGNATURE-----
1QEHZg9KVa1Am9iCdSJ7NktqSs1t569vYi
IK1ZqTw4/r55v8hUOFOaVweLmn2Ex1DfEUKzALM1zjIqOdlgeqwnwaepYp6jpZKFCaZGxSiegtc6fcmKsVMJ1Xo=
-----END BITCOIN SIGNED MESSAGE-----

Then, after the deadline post this within 24 hours:

Code:

-----BEGIN BITCOIN SIGNED MESSAGE-----
I predict $78500.
This is some random data to avoid brute-forcing: 75t654utr6gjhfdrrgvfcycbdnvbmkhenuirysdhjkflmdbgjnoie
-----BEGIN SIGNATURE-----
1QEHZg9KVa1Am9iCdSJ7NktqSs1t569vYi
IK1ZqTw4/r55v8hUOFOaVweLmn2Ex1DfEUKzALM1zjIqOdlgeqwnwaepYp6jpZKFCaZGxSiegtc6fcmKsVMJ1Xo=
-----END BITCOIN SIGNED MESSAGE-----

[examplens]

@Halab: how about using signed messages to post predictions before the deadline without anyone seeing it, and without anyone forcing me to make an early prediction to avoid accusations of cheating on my PM Publisher?

I was convinced that it was a joke, with accusations of possible earlier access to the PM publisher. 

[ESG]

Yes, signing a key is good, but, I had thought like this: we sent the prediction to Halab via PM, and after everyone sent it, he published it on his message publisher..

But, I think that as it is good...

[Halab]

@Halab: how about using signed messages to post predictions before the deadline without anyone seeing it, and without anyone forcing me to make an early prediction to avoid accusations of cheating on my PM Publisher?

I'm not sure if everyone knows how to or is able to sign a message.
Originally, I wanted something relatively simple. But I will keep that option in mind, we will discuss it again at the end during a large debrief.

[LoyceV]

I'm not sure if everyone knows how to or is able to sign a message.

I was hoping for that

[ESG]

In this game you can have up to three lives, but you can't have any to continue in it.
.
.
.
*.

[Halab]

The duel is now over. Here are the results :

Closing price on 28/04/2026 : 76 345$

Name	Prediction	B/M	Final prediction	Difference
Hypnotizer	77 689,50	0,25% malus	77 883,72	1 538,72
LoyceV	78 500,00		78 500,00	2 155,00

                              

The bears won over the bulls. Thanks to that, Hypnotizer, you have earned the right to play at least one more round.
Sorry LoyceV, but those three ♥ were ruining the harmony of my table. I prefer when everything is neatly aligned, so you lose a life.
               
Everyone wake up !! It’s time for round 17.
The winner of this round will have a tremendous privilege : the chance to take part in an experience that will completely change the world. No less than that. I have put all my money into this project, and it’s about to come to completion.


Round 17 : Defy the death
What will be the price of Bitcoin at May 04, 2026, 12:00:00 AM (BTC closing price on 03/05/2026) ?
Submit your predictions before May 01, 2026, 02:00:00 PM.
 
Cash shop: OPEN
 
Special rules :None

[Hypnotizer]

Hypnotizer keeps  breaking records..

…Oh and creating the records also

$78,365.43

[cryptofrka]

80k$

[LoyceV]

What will be the price of Bitcoin at May 04, 2026, 12:00:00 AM (BTC closing price on 03/05/2026) ?
Submit your predictions before May 01, 2026, 02:00:00 PM.

$77,463.95
$76,103.90
$77,949.40
$78,418.30

[Halab]

Submit your predictions before May 01, 2026, 02:00:00 PM.

Please be aware that there are only 5h30 left.

[LoyceV]

Please be aware that there are only 5h30 left.

Stttt! Quiet!

[ESG]

Submit your predictions before May 01, 2026, 02:00:00 PM.

Please be aware that there are only 5h30 left.

hi Halab,

about the time zone of the game, from the beginning, I assimilated that your time
is being the same as the universal time, 0:00:00, and I have been following it,
would that be it? Is it less than an hour away?
Here in my country it is -3 of Universal Time, Greenwich...
And 11:00am (now here: 10:18am), would be the end-time prediction here.
 Am I right?

Now time here>


.

-
my prediction:

-BTC=77575,57

[LoyceV]

Here in my country it is -3 of Universal Time, Greenwich...

Halab uses the [time]-tag. If you set your local time correctly in your profile, you should see the correct end-time based on your own local time.

[Halab]

Am I right?

I don't know. I don't really have time to look into time zones, they have always been a pain for me. But a month ago, France switched to summer time, so we went from GMT+1 to GMT+2, if I'm not mistaken. And for this round, I set a slightly shorter deadline because I have to hit the road soon (back on Sunday).

Anyway. Right now, there are 3 out of 7 players who haven’t participated. That’s too many. So I’m going to cancel this round (round 17) and restart it (round 17b).
We reset everything and start over.

Round 17b : Defy the death
What will be the price of Bitcoin at May 07, 2026, 12:00:00 AM (BTC closing price on 06/05/2026) ?
Submit your predictions before May 04, 2026, 06:00:00 PM.
 
Cash shop: OPEN
 
Special rules :None

[Leahized]

I thought I would get some time in round 17 but I'm about 17 minutes late. @Halab thank you, To extend the time limit.


$77,827

$78,956

[ESG]

Here in my country it is -3 of Universal Time, Greenwich...

Halab uses the '{'time]-tag. If you set your local time correctly in your profile, you should see the correct end-time based on your own local time.

My profile in Bitcoin Talk is set to UTC time, I also didn't understand {'  time] -tag'} well, time ok, but what -tag, would it be at the time that it adjusts the time of the prediction and does not use time zone when setting the time and then would it be UTC? This is my doubt, because I think that maybe he uses UTC or the French time that he adjusts by default... But I don't know

Am I right?

I don't know. I don't really have time to look into time zones, they have always been a pain for me. But a month ago, France switched to summer time, so we went from GMT+1 to GMT+2, if I'm not mistaken. And for this round, I set a slightly shorter deadline because I have to hit the road soon (back on Sunday).

Anyway. Right now, there are 3 out of 7 players who haven’t participated. That’s too many. So I’m going to cancel this round (round 17) and restart it (round 17b).
We reset everything and start over.

Round 17b : Defy the death
What will be the price of Bitcoin at May 07, 2026, 12:00:00 AM (BTC closing price on 06/05/2026) ?
Submit your predictions before May 04, 2026, 06:00:00 PM.
 
Cash shop: OPEN
 
Special rules :None

Well, I don't know if it would be fair, except for Leahized having delayed a little, maybe the other two didn't want to participate anymore? Will they be angry at me talking too much?rssss... and or examplens got mad at me because of me completing the 1% malus of it, I don't know, but that's fine with me, because it's so indespicable, it looks like it's going to break through the 80k but at the same time it seems like it's going to close the week at 75500 which was what was in my mind, but I ended up putting 77500,... Here the 'summer time had ended, and for now it's been more than 4 years since it ended... I hope it doesn't come back.... And as for you, all the best on the tour, and enjoy it well.

####
or, indeed, that part in which everyone has the knowledge of everyone's price before the end of the determined time of the end of the predictions, is a serious thing to think about, and perhaps, this could also be this.. There are several ways to send, Loyce's idea is good, but I'll give one more idea here, just to talk....> send the prediction via simplex message and then Halab publishes here.,.. But maybe it will complicate it for Halab and others whatever...

...............
BTC= 80808,08


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[LoyceV]

Anyway. Right now, there are 3 out of 7 players who haven’t participated. That’s too many. So I’m going to cancel this round (round 17) and restart it (round 17b).
We reset everything and start over.

Is this the "frustration and vexation" I was promised?

Round 17b : Defy the death
What will be the price of Bitcoin at May 07, 2026, 12:00:00 AM (BTC closing price on 06/05/2026) ?
Submit your predictions before May 04, 2026, 06:00:00 PM.

$78,280.58
$78,923.06
$79,923.06
$80,350.67

[cryptofrka]

Anyway. Right now, there are 3 out of 7 players who haven’t participated. That’s too many. So I’m going to cancel this round (round 17) and restart it (round 17b).
We reset everything and start over.

They should all be given the randomizer curse. When they submit the prediction, the numbers get randomly reshuffled.
We can then observe who the smartest one is and picks 77777$, and then we punish that one even harder.

___________________________

I stick with 80k$.

[ESG]

They should all be given the randomizer curse. When they submit the prediction, the numbers get randomly reshuffled.
We can then observe who the smartest one is and picks 77777$, and then we punish that one even harder.

.


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