Oil will be high for a while

[PERtua]

I'm in agreement oil prices may not spike right back up immediately after the war. But I believe recovery will be more than just fixing up some infrastructure. Oil is a global commodity. So outside the conflict zone producers can step up production and governments can also tap into their strategic reserves if there is a shortage. Demand also plays a part. As an increase in price could lead to less demand. And also inspire businesses to seek out substitutes. This not only allows time for the physical damage to be fixed. But it also allows the market time to adjust. My guess is that in my opinion the bigger question is when will the disruption in transportation and supply routes end. A short war will result in a price shock. And longer disruptions could alter trade routes and supply contracts for much longer. The post war oil market then, may not be back to normal  it may be different.

I don't think so, prices will reverse on it's original level, as the world is moving towards complexity day by day. First we heard the war of US and Iran but now it is spreading towards other oil producing countries. Or world are expecting much more than this besides the cutting of oil supply. Other major problems are arising and world has risk of other important commodities.

As oil is basic needs, so it is important to pay serious attention on the price control. May be in the  next few months oil become superior commodity, or slowly and gradually it could create serious crises, because may be every country try to secure the reserve of oil to run the economy.It would be very scary situation, because it can affect every part of the economy. One thing is very clear that conflict between Iran nd US not easily be solved.

I believe it's more important to talk about the inventory situation than to ask if the war is going to be over soon. The IEA which has been predicting a downward swing in oil inventories since June. Said on Sept 18 that inventories had been declining for the past six months at about 2.8 million bpd globally as IEA member countries had released over 300 million barrels from emergency stocks. In other words, strategic reserves can help to absorb a shock. But they are not a magic bullet. Prices may continue to be under pressure should supply continue to be impacted and inventories continue to decline, despite any potential shift in demand. A more relevant way to ask the question may be then the speed at which supply will normalise before the last buffers become too small.

[aoluain]

Its going to be a simple case of supply and demand.

Whatever about the restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz for the last 6 months or so
the case of the Bab-al-Mansab choke point being effectively closed by the Houthi's is
another massive blow to global oil supply.

The thread title should be changed to Oil will be high for a LONG while

For the last number of months fuel prices at the pimps have been high but artifically so for
some reason, although I'm not complaining about that but here in Europe we are coming
close to €3 per litre or $12.88 per US gallon!

[pooya87]

The price that is being reported in the media and on websites like oilprice.com stopped being realistic a while ago. The real prices have been higher. For example right now crude oil prices start from $150 and climb up depending on the tensions of that day while the media reports it around $100 and even brought it down with some fake news in Reuters with a lie about Iran negotiating with the US regime.

This higher price is evident on the pumps where the "products" are becoming more expensive (eg. petrol and diesel) and that's because of the shortage which is going to turn into crisis very soon as strategic reserves run out.

You see, recently the Saudi usurpers of Arabia lost large amount of Yemeni lands they have been occupying and the Armed Forces of Yemen have been pushing them out very fast. With liberation of strategic regions such as al-Khowkheh and al-Mokha the enemy sustained the biggest defeats.
Out of desperation and not-wanting to accept defeat, the Epstein Axis started bombing residential areas and kill civilians in Yemen. Consequently the Yemeni forces started a retaliatory campaign to obliterate the source of Saudi (and the Axis) funding that fuels their war-machine. That happens to be the Saudi energy infrastructure. So far a large portion of the Saudi oil infrastructure is destroyed (refineries, pumps, pipeline, oil and jet fuel storages, etc.).

...Therefore the additional shortage I keep mentioning.
Unlike the Strait of Hormuz, this is not just a blockade, this is destruction of enemy war funds. So the prices are indeed going to be high for a long time.

P.S. If the Axis continues things will escalate a lot more. The people of Yemen are already rising up and they have cleared most of the South and have liberated their occupied lands neutralizing the Takfiri/Wahhabi forces. When they are done, they're going to look north and liberate the two districts that have been under Saudi occupation for longer than the South. And if the Axis continues, I wouldn't be surprised if they finally clear the Holy Lands from the Wahhabi usurpers and put an end to the Zionist Saudi dictatorship that has been oppressing Muslims for long enough.
Only after that the energy market can go back to normal... So buckle down for harder times.

[aoluain]

Only after that the energy market can go back to normal... So buckle down for harder times.

...and that normal will be a NEW normal.

Whatever normal was of January 2026 will not be returning.

[fruktik]

Let face the reality mate, this wars ain't benefiting the average US citizens than it's doing for Trump and his billionaires circle. I'm all of this the victory for both sides of the conflict would definitely be the elite class while the pains goes to the regular folks.

Diesel hitting $10 in pump price anywhere in the world who does it benefits, the gas station company owners or the consumers?!

There are still those who believe that Trump is bringing benefit and good to his country and its citizens. That is incredibly naive. He lies constantly without feeling the slightest discomfort.

His inner circle idolizes him because Donnie helped them all become significantly wealthier. War is always a battle for specific resources, and this case is no different. Yet, Americans gain nothing from it; they have been left out of the picture, nervously smoking on the sidelines as they watch Trump’s madness unfold.

[fillippone]

Today in Italy ENI announcedxthey are going to cap the price of gas and diesel for the next 30 days.
They probably see the forward curve and see the price is going down?
I recall when government sai they would have paid for any mortgage above a certain level and rates fell since that day.

[NeuroticFish]

So buckle down for harder times.

Yep, the high prices and the scarcity will most probably last a lot more.

Thanks for the interesting insights. I was aware of the "new front" in Yemen, but I was unaware of the (social/historical/political) background.
There are a huge lot of politicians and newspapers who are welcoming this "new reality", simply because it draws attention from their shit.

I find it funny (in a sad way) that a few years ago quite a big attention was on ideas to reduce the global use of oil because of global warming. Interestingly now, when the wars would be the best opportunity to turn those ideas into reality, the focus is in getting the oil prices back to "normal" and pumping funds for keeping the impact (of the current prices) low/manageable for their voters.

Sadly this situation helps Russia sell their resources and fueling their war. Because, let's face it, the desperation will continue to rise and sooner or later they'll buy no matter where it comes from.
Plus: winter is coming.

[ultrloa]

Today in Italy ENI announcedxthey are going to cap the price of gas and diesel for the next 30 days.
They probably see the forward curve and see the price is going down?
I recall when government sai they would have paid for any mortgage above a certain level and rates fell since that day.

Maybe not because there's trade off on that new implementation they have done, since they point out that ENI is selling fuel way below on the market price. So that also means the economy will also get affected. So I presume that this is only a band aid solution.

But who knows maybe they know something and let's see what they can do for the next 30 days. Since people would really see the effect of those implementation done.

For now its good to see that they are doing something to protect their consumers from rising prices of fuel.

Also look what other countries do to capped the price of fuel https://energynow.ca/2026/03/what-g7-countries-are-doing-to-cap-energy-prices

[pooya87]

Thanks for the interesting insights. I was aware of the "new front" in Yemen, but I was unaware of the (social/historical/political) background.

Yeah, unfortunately Yemen never received the attention it deserves. It has been ~12 years of foreign intervention and bombing campaigns against Yemeni population and infrastructure that caused what UNICEF called "worst humanitarian crisis" of that time. The only reason why some of it is now making it to the news is because Yemen's retaliation is starting to hurt the enemy (NATO-Arab_dictators-Zionist Axis) significantly.

I find it funny (in a sad way) that a few years ago quite a big attention was on ideas to reduce the global use of oil because of global warming. Interestingly now, when the wars would be the best opportunity to turn those ideas into reality, the focus is in getting the oil prices back to "normal" and pumping funds for keeping the impact (of the current prices) low/manageable for their voters.

We talk about oil a lot because it's the hot topic but it is not just oil though. A lot of natural resources are being shipped out of West Asia through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab. Ammonia, Sulfur, Natural Gas, LNG, Aluminum, Steel, Urea, Helium, Methanol, and dozens of others. When the US regime disrupted the supply chain of these, that disruption affects all kinds of industries... from food to chip production (depends on Helium).

The colonizers (basically the Epstein Axis) want to steal these resources, this is why they invaded Yemen, are colonizing Palestine and committing genocide there, bombing Lebanon, installed al-Qaeda in Syria, invaded Iraq, hope to invade Iran some day, etc. But when they fail, it has consequences that spread to the whole world.

Every day that passes like this, the consequences of it is going to last longer. For example the Persian Gulf Strait Authority recently announced that all vessels that break the law will be placed in a Non-Compliance List. That means in the future, the ship itself and possibly the company that owns the vessels will not be allowed to use the Strait of Hormuz.

[#CapsLOck]

I'm in agreement oil prices may not spike right back up immediately after the war. But I believe recovery will be more than just fixing up some infrastructure. Oil is a global commodity. So outside the conflict zone producers can step up production and governments can also tap into their strategic reserves if there is a shortage. Demand also plays a part. As an increase in price could lead to less demand. And also inspire businesses to seek out substitutes. This not only allows time for the physical damage to be fixed. But it also allows the market time to adjust. My guess is that in my opinion the bigger question is when will the disruption in transportation and supply routes end. A short war will result in a price shock. And longer disruptions could alter trade routes and supply contracts for much longer. The post war oil market then, may not be back to normal  it may be different.

I don't think so, prices will reverse on it's original level, as the world is moving towards complexity day by day. First we heard the war of US and Iran but now it is spreading towards other oil producing countries. Or world are expecting much more than this besides the cutting of oil supply. Other major problems are arising and world has risk of other important commodities.

As oil is basic needs, so it is important to pay serious attention on the price control. May be in the  next few months oil become superior commodity, or slowly and gradually it could create serious crises, because may be every country try to secure the reserve of oil to run the economy.It would be very scary situation, because it can affect every part of the economy. One thing is very clear that conflict between Iran nd US not easily be solved.

I believe the most important thing is that oil prices won't rely exclusively on the repair of the actual damage. The greater impact will be on the length of time disruption impacts production. Transportation and expectations for supply. Other production measures, such as expanding production, or strategic purchases by governments. Can only bring temporary relief if the uncertainty persists for some time. Meanwhile. Extremely high oil prices which eventually dampen demand could make it profitable for companies to seek alternatives. And there are limits to the length of time that an extreme price can be sustained. Hence  I believe it is more complex than that. Oil will stay high until this conflict is resolved. If this continues it may impact trade routes and supply chains. But once there is a bit of a lull and supply returns to normal. Prices may revert as well.

[NeuroticFish]

We talk about oil a lot because it's the hot topic but it is not just oil though.

Never is. It's usually the tip of the iceberg, and lately they've gone increasingly desperate to secure especially resources useful for chip manufacturing.

(basically the Epstein Axis) want to steal these resources

Yep, they do it around the world and under the hood, because it's the "policy" of certain rich people, not officially the policy of USA.

But when they fail, it has consequences that spread to the whole world.

The world is already feeling it. Just the politicians are so slow and divided, they can't react meaningfully. Plus a lot of politicians in pretty much every country are for sale (and already acquired), making everything even more complicated.

Every day that passes like this, the consequences of it is going to last longer. For example the Persian Gulf Strait Authority recently announced that all vessels that break the law will be placed in a Non-Compliance List. That means in the future, the ship itself and possibly the company that owns the vessels will not be allowed to use the Strait of Hormuz.

The world is already in deep shit, and we're going into it deeper and deeper. Good thing that we are stacking sats, we may have a slight hope.
But keep in mind that each side tends to show up as stronger than it is - and I mean here also the current "authority" over the strait.
I am hoping for the best, but, as you see, I am aware that much worse will most probably happen first.


Thanks for the overview, I find it very educative.

[Lida93]

We talk about oil a lot because it's the hot topic but it is not just oil though.

Never is. It's usually the tip of the iceberg, and lately they've gone increasingly desperate to secure especially resources useful for chip manufacturing.

Much of the conflicts and uprising are sponsored rebels across different countries where we keep getting news about various pockets of conflicts and terrors, they are mostly tied to resource control, which mainly not crude oil but for rare earth minerals. As an African I'll be using Africa countries for example,  where the global West China and Russia for their desperation has pitted interest on due to these rare essential earth materials for chips and other modern tech Inventions.
And in some occupied locations where these minerals are illegally mined without domestic government  contract and regulation, the only way to keep their illegal mining on going is through creation and financing of rebel/terror groups, causing conflicts in these regions therefore making it a national security issue to the government. The locals are aware of this but the national and international news would carry the headlines differently.

It's definitely no longer an issue of oil

[Alpha Marine]

I find it funny (in a sad way) that a few years ago quite a big attention was on ideas to reduce the global use of oil because of global warming. Interestingly now, when the wars would be the best opportunity to turn those ideas into reality, the focus is in getting the oil prices back to "normal" and pumping funds for keeping the impact (of the current prices) low/manageable for their voters.

Part of this is because the world is nowhere near reducing its reliance on oil. The ships that transport goods, the aircraft, and the cities all still rely on oil one way or the other.
Only about 31 countries have nuclear power plants. We are not in a place where the world can no longer rely on oil yet. Some people just like to exeggerate things.

Then there is the fact that economies of many countries and companies would crash if the world no longer relies on oil for transportaion and electricity. So I don't see it happening, at least not now.

[Abiky]

Part of this is because the world is nowhere near reducing its reliance on oil. The ships that transport goods, the aircraft, and the cities all still rely on oil one way or the other.
Only about 31 countries have nuclear power plants. We are not in a place where the world can no longer rely on oil yet. Some people just like to exeggerate things.

Then there is the fact that economies of many countries and companies would crash if the world no longer relies on oil for transportaion and electricity. So I don't see it happening, at least not now.

It's hard to move away from an infrastucture that's been established for decades. Oil (aka as Black Gold) has been the driving force of our society for a very long time. Transitioning into alternative energy sources, is a slow and steady process. We'll get there, but within the distant future.

I'd expect countries to make heavy use of nuclear, wind, solar, hydro, and geothermal energy in the future. Oil will serve a lesser role in our society. It will only be  used for the making of plastics and other cosmetics. Not fuel or energy use. For now, the world is stuck with the US and Iran's little drama. We'll see how long this lasts.

[Alpha Marine]

It's hard to move away from an infrastucture that's been established for decades. Oil (aka as Black Gold) has been the driving force of our society for a very long time. Transitioning into alternative energy sources, is a slow and steady process. We'll get there, but within the distant future.

I'd expect countries to make heavy use of nuclear, wind, solar, hydro, and geothermal energy in the future. Oil will serve a lesser role in our society. It will only be  used for the making of plastics and other cosmetics. Not fuel or energy use. For now, the world is stuck with the US and Iran's little drama. We'll see how long this lasts.

Yes, I agree a time will come when other sources of energy will become the major sources, and oil will take a back seat. As you said, it's in the distant future. We are nowhere near that point right now, not even close.
What I disagree with is you saying oil will no longer be used for fuel or energy. As long as oil is still being taken out of the ground, it will always be used for fuel and energy. Oil won't be used only for things like plastic and cosmetics. That won't be worth spending all that money to bring oil out from the ground. Petrol and gas is the bread and butter of oil. If they can no longer get that, I think they will stop drilling entirely.

[Halifat]

It's hard to move away from an infrastucture that's been established for decades. Oil (aka as Black Gold) has been the driving force of our society for a very long time. Transitioning into alternative energy sources, is a slow and steady process. We'll get there, but within the distant future.

I'd expect countries to make heavy use of nuclear, wind, solar, hydro, and geothermal energy in the future. Oil will serve a lesser role in our society. It will only be  used for the making of plastics and other cosmetics. Not fuel or energy use. For now, the world is stuck with the US and Iran's little drama. We'll see how long this lasts.

Yes, I agree a time will come when other sources of energy will become the major sources, and oil will take a back seat. As you said, it's in the distant future. We are nowhere near that point right now, not even close.
What I disagree with is you saying oil will no longer be used for fuel or energy. As long as oil is still being taken out of the ground, it will always be used for fuel and energy. Oil won't be used only for things like plastic and cosmetics. That won't be worth spending all that money to bring oil out from the ground. Petrol and gas is the bread and butter of oil. If they can no longer get that, I think they will stop drilling entirely.

Yes, you have a very good point but right now I don't take anything that can replace crude oil, it is not only petrol and gas that we are gotten from it and right now we have billions of it reserve all over the world, for something or anything to replace crude oil i think it will not be in my generation because there are a lot of it which has not been touched, and I don't think it will finish during my lifetime.

There are a lot of things that oil can do, but all the things he is mentioning cannot meet up the requirement at this moment, not that there's no replacement for energy but the durability is usually why all those things are still not put in place. Right now we don't have any option rather than to adapt with the current situation.

[DanWalker]

It's hard to move away from an infrastucture that's been established for decades. Oil (aka as Black Gold) has been the driving force of our society for a very long time. Transitioning into alternative energy sources, is a slow and steady process. We'll get there, but within the distant future.

I'd expect countries to make heavy use of nuclear, wind, solar, hydro, and geothermal energy in the future. Oil will serve a lesser role in our society. It will only be  used for the making of plastics and other cosmetics. Not fuel or energy use. For now, the world is stuck with the US and Iran's little drama. We'll see how long this lasts.

Yes, I agree a time will come when other sources of energy will become the major sources, and oil will take a back seat. As you said, it's in the distant future. We are nowhere near that point right now, not even close.
What I disagree with is you saying oil will no longer be used for fuel or energy. As long as oil is still being taken out of the ground, it will always be used for fuel and energy. Oil won't be used only for things like plastic and cosmetics. That won't be worth spending all that money to bring oil out from the ground. Petrol and gas is the bread and butter of oil. If they can no longer get that, I think they will stop drilling entirely.

Yes, you have a very good point but right now I don't take anything that can replace crude oil, it is not only petrol and gas that we are gotten from it and right now we have billions of it reserve all over the world, for something or anything to replace crude oil i think it will not be in my generation because there are a lot of it which has not been touched, and I don't think it will finish during my lifetime.

There are a lot of things that oil can do, but all the things he is mentioning cannot meet up the requirement at this moment, not that there's no replacement for energy but the durability is usually why all those things are still not put in place. Right now we don't have any option rather than to adapt with the current situation.

There's still an estimated 1.7 trillion barrels of proven reserves of oil, which would last about 50 years at current levels of production.
But that does not mean we'll run out in 50 years. New oil fields are still being discovered every year. So we're nowhere near running out anytime soon.

As for alternative energy, dunno  if it'll ever fully replace oil as the main energy source. With reserves this big, oil will remain backbone of the economy  and a major energy source for a long time, imo.


https://farmonaut.com/mining/world-map-oil-reserves-largest-oil-reserves-in-world

[pooya87]

The oil and consequently fuel situation in the USA is getting worse and even though I wouldn't call it crisis yet but it is huge enough that has gotten the regime desperate enough to suspend its sanction on Russian diesel exports to US only!!! in a desperate attempt to cover the increasing shortage and the soaring price of diesel (no solution for gasoline, jet fuel and dozens of other products though).

Regardless of its real effect (or lack of effect considering the size of it*) another thing very interesting to follow after this is going to be what Russians are going to do. Are they also desperate enough for cash to take advantage of the US regime's desperation and sell their diesel (which is now counted as strategic product) to the regime, or are they fine enough to take advantage of this and instead increase the pressure on their enemy?

* Explanation: the Pedophile POTUS tweeted that Russia has agreed to supply 300k ton of diesel to America and Global market this month and 500k ton next month. Assuming this is not a lie to lower prices and even if the entire thing was shipped to US, that is smaller than 1 day consumption of diesel over there which is 620 million liters which translates to 517,000 metric tonnes.

But keep in mind that each side tends to show up as stronger than it is - and I mean here also the current "authority" over the strait.

That is very true but in this case we are talking about Iranian/Persian waters and Iran has always had authority there. And that's not just for the past 47 years with the Islamic Republic, but for thousands of years with all kingdoms that have come and gone.
In fact Hormuz is the name of an ancient Iranian king from Sasanian Empire (224 to 651 AD) and the root of word itself is found in Avestan (holy language of Zoroastrianism that is the oldest religion that originated in Iran at least 3500 years ago). هرمز (Hormuz) is the shortened form of اهورامزدا (Ahura-Mazda) which to put simply means The Creator aka God.

Here is an example from 2019 an the way Iran exerts its authority in the Strait of Hormuz. By that time non-regional military vessels were still allowed to enter the Persian Gulf but only under full authority of Iranian navy. As you can see the US Aircraft Carrier is surrounded by Iranian ultra-fast missile boats and was only allowed passage after the US Navy obeyed the Iranian orders.

[Abiky]

There's still an estimated 1.7 trillion barrels of proven reserves of oil, which would last about 50 years at current levels of production.
But that does not mean we'll run out in 50 years. New oil fields are still being discovered every year. So we're nowhere near running out anytime soon.

As for alternative energy, dunno  if it'll ever fully replace oil as the main energy source. With reserves this big, oil will remain backbone of the economy  and a major energy source for a long time, imo.


https://farmonaut.com/mining/world-map-oil-reserves-largest-oil-reserves-in-world

If that's the case, then why are gasoline and diesel prices so high? I mean, only 20% of the world's oil travels through the Strait of Hormuz. What happened to the other 80%? If the majority of the oil is being transported elsewhere, market prices per barrel of oil shouldn't be this high. What I see is oil companies and governments taking advantage of the situation to fill their pockets with money. That's the only explanation to this. I know Trump messed up, but that doesn't change the fact that oil companies are abusing/gaming the system for their own financial gain.

1.7 trillion barrels of oil reserves is more than enough to help offset the cost of gas/diesel production. Even if the US-Iran war ends, that doesn't mean prices will go down overnight. It will take an estimate of 6 months to 1 year for the world to experience pre-war prices. The time for change is now. If countries don't start moving, we'll be stuck with oil forever.

[pooya87]

I mean, only 20% of the world's oil travels through the Strait of Hormuz. What happened to the other 80%?

The situation is a lot more complicated than that.
For starters you are looking at the wrong percentage. When it comes to "exported oil" what passes through the Strait of Hormuz is between 30% to 40%. 20% is out of the total oil in existence and not all of it is being exported. It is kinda like total supply versus circulating supply of a cryptocurrency.

Secondly that is just Strait of Hormuz, you are forgetting all the nasty things the US regime has done elsewhere like for example the Saudi petroleum and products exports have dropped significantly over the past couple of months ever since Yemen started retaliating for 12 years of Saudi-US aggression and blockade.
Pretty soon it will be negative meaning the usurpers of second largest oil reserves would become an importer of oil; they are already importing gasoline since their refineries don't receive crude anymore.

The current estimation is that there is more than 2 billion barrels of oil shortage globally.

What I see is oil companies and governments taking advantage of the situation to fill their pockets with money.

That is partially true. The "Big Oil" is always trying to take advantage of any situation to fill their own pockets but the rise is not that much bigger. It is appropriate to the current global supply shortage.

The global market has some hope left because if the US regime's destabilization and aggression end right now the damage is still minimal and reversible. But the situation may not be the same 4 months from now. Next time the US regime tries its luck and decides to carry out terrorist attacks on Iran (which is probably in the next ~2 months), Iran's retaliation is going to be ten times harsher. One of the main possible targets for obliteration will be all the oil and gas infrastructure across West Asia that is funding American Terrorism (ie. Petrodollar).
That will be irreversible damage and after that, people would be wishing they could buy gas or diesel at "dirt cheap" price of $9.99!