No one knows for how long this war can go on. It can be weeks or months. But a lot of people seem to think that once the war ends, everything will go back to normal. That is not the case. Oil prices are going up now and for every day that companies struggle to operate, the closer they are to bankruptcy. Maybe the big companies would be fine but even them are struggling. To expect that once the war ends, everything will go back to how it was before would be foolish. It will take a while for everything to go down low, if things were to bounce back to what we used to consider normal.
The OP's reasoning aged well. In my opinion, the prices won't go below $50 or above $100. The price for processing and transferring oil has gone higher and the oil that could be easily extracted are going rarer so there's going to be a price on it even if the oil demand tanks and people don't need as much oil. A shortage in demand won't automatically go it near to zero like electricity. Also $100 is a psychological upper barrier where people and nations tries to avoid using oil if possible.
For this very winter, the price could briefly go above $100 if the wars are not ended as the people in Europe would turn into burning oil for heat but it won't remain there longer. Democrats or Republicans being on US government would no longer have any large effect on oil prices as their policies are not exactly different.
