Analysis based on stats might be useless

[lombok]

From coaches perspective, if they analyze every aspect of their opponent and build game tactics, how come they still lose? You can analyze everything but if your player or players dont have better skills or advantages, its no use to rely on analysis that much. Thanks to documentary, social media and the internet I can analyze every step Ronaldo does, but I still wont be able to outplay him in football. Shouldnt it means that proper analysis is maybe 1/3 of success, where rest 2/3 are luck and random? If making predictions were that easy, if I would be able to open last 5-10 or more games data, print it all that, lay it out making it look like a web with strings that lead to prediction outcomes, making sports predictions would be too easy.

I agree with you that luck plays a much greater role than any statistics collected over years or even decades. Of course, statistics can help in some ways, but they won't do everything for us, even in the age of AI, because luck will play a major role. Personally, I think that maybe professionals can somehow make money by spotting other opportunities, but I don't see any at all yet. Luck is extremely important in betting, but I wouldn't say it has a complete influence, it's just quite significant.

If statistics were really that crucial in sports betting, then people who run very detailed statistics would be one of the richest people. However, those who collect detailed statistics of sports events are more geeks, than true fans and successful gamblers. Moreover, a lot of statistics are in free access, which means there would be even more people who have earned a lot by sports betting. Many casinos would go bankrupt. Nevertheless we see completely opposite situation, number of casinos grows (which means this is a successful business), number of gamblers grow, but amount of rich and really successful gamblers stay the same.

Analysis on over dependence on statistical material can render the force of luck and random variable that cannot be mathematically calculated in sport. Provided that the only key to success was number, the gambling industry would have fallen a long time ago under the impact of the amount of freely available information. In fact, the fact that bookmakers continue to succeed attests to the fact that most of the player are still stuck in the delusion of victory in the midst of all the data available.

[Ishicryptic]

We should not fully depend on analysis in gambling because some may not even be needed as we ought to play our games depending on them completely, we also need some experience in sports and ensure that we know more about each aspect that concerns our intention to gamble. They can give us some insight but not that we fully depend on these statistics to gamble.

It is dangerous it depend fully on analysis and think that they are all that's required for us to win our bets but a lot of bettors need to realize that this doesn't really guarantee winning when it comes to betting, the can improve the chances of winning but it doesn't take out all the risk involved. Too many bettors get overconfident after doing their analysis this is what makes them stake a high amount.

If analysis are always correct then it wouldn't be betting and cannot be called gambling, it is because of not knowing whether you will or not that we stake our money to try our luck so winning is majorly determined by luck not analysis. Analysis is important as it will aid you to make your picks but it is not a guarantee that it will be correct, besides different bettors have opposite strategies to analyze so everybody cannot be a winner. It is best not to get your hopes too high that your analysis will result to a win for you and that is why it's best to stake your bets with amounts that you are comfortable to loose.

[Judith87403]

Analysis on over dependence on statistical material can render the force of luck and random variable that cannot be mathematically calculated in sport. Provided that the only key to success was number, the gambling industry would have fallen a long time ago under the impact of the amount of freely available information. In fact, the fact that bookmakers continue to succeed attests to the fact that most of the player are still stuck in the delusion of victory in the midst of all the data available.

You see the reason why a lot gamblers still end up falling into several traps is because they are still very ignorant of this very truth. They still believe their skills and analysis is just enough to fetch them the win they want. Indeed there are games that this could be considered true, which is the skill based games. BUt in games like sports betting, Luck is what a player really needs and not really skills, sure they do need skills but only to an extent, because what the skills really does is to help increase their chances of winning and not to win.

[Yorubek]

Analysis on over dependence on statistical material can render the force of luck and random variable that cannot be mathematically calculated in sport. Provided that the only key to success was number, the gambling industry would have fallen a long time ago under the impact of the amount of freely available information. In fact, the fact that bookmakers continue to succeed attests to the fact that most of the player are still stuck in the delusion of victory in the midst of all the data available.

You see the reason why a lot gamblers still end up falling into several traps is because they are still very ignorant of this very truth. They still believe their skills and analysis is just enough to fetch them the win they want. Indeed there are games that this could be considered true, which is the skill based games. BUt in games like sports betting, Luck is what a player really needs and not really skills, sure they do need skills but only to an extent, because what the skills really does is to help increase their chances of winning and not to win.

Skill or strategy will not always work to win, to win sports betting we have to rely on luck absolutely true, if luck helps then we will win. But skill and strategy can bring us closer to winning and even save ourselves from ruin. Gambling is truly for entertainment, I think gambling can never be an easy way to make money. If we start looking at gambling as an easy way to make money then gambling can very easily lead us to ruin.

[Mr_Brilliant$]

We should not fully depend on analysis in gambling because some may not even be needed as we ought to play our games depending on them completely, we also need some experience in sports and ensure that we know more about each aspect that concerns our intention to gamble. They can give us some insight but not that we fully depend on these statistics to gamble.

It is dangerous it depend fully on analysis and think that they are all that's required for us to win our bets but a lot of bettors need to realize that this doesn't really guarantee winning when it comes to betting, the can improve the chances of winning but it doesn't take out all the risk involved. Too many bettors get overconfident after doing their analysis this is what makes them stake a high amount.

Analysis does not guarantee wins at all, it just gives you a small edge, nothing more…. some people will do full breakdowns with stats and everything will look perfect, and the game will still flop later..
Wins really comes down to the live performance… players form that day, mistakes, red cards, even luck, all those things you can not fully predict them..  that is why betting is still difficult no matter how good your analysis is..

The real issue is once some bettors finish their analysis, they become overconfident and start staking big like they have figured everything out… so when they loss, it hurts them financially..

[danadc]

Analysis on over dependence on statistical material can render the force of luck and random variable that cannot be mathematically calculated in sport. Provided that the only key to success was number, the gambling industry would have fallen a long time ago under the impact of the amount of freely available information. In fact, the fact that bookmakers continue to succeed attests to the fact that most of the player are still stuck in the delusion of victory in the midst of all the data available.

I believe that many bettors don't base their bets on statistics, but on what they think will happen. That's why there's so much reliance on parlays and raffles. But this is obvious; I don't see everyone looking for numbers to see what's most likely to happen or who will win. Maybe they can see numbers, but there are many bettors who simply don't understand those numbers or don't know how to interpret them.

[LUCKMCFLY]

I'm not a gambler who bets on sports, but honestly, I often hear about matches being rigged, such as unfair refereeing. But as for the issue of "the outcome was predetermined from the start," I honestly don't understand this. The reason is that in sports matches, many unexpected things can happen that can't be controlled from the start. Injuries and unexpected declines in performance, in my opinion, can't be planned from the start because on the field, both teams are definitely working hard to win. So, what if, for example, a team that was planned by someone to win at the end of the game experiences an unexpected event during the match, ultimately resulting in a loss?

So, personally, I still believe that the final outcome of a match depends on who is stronger during the match. Overly blatant cheating can damage the league's popularity.

A clear example: what would happen in La Liga, where everyone considers Barcelona the winner, if that were to reverse and Real Madrid were to become champions? How would everything change? Besides the fact that it's possible in fact, it's already happened,t's something that defies logic for many, but mathematics says it's possible, How would all those big bets be affected? That's what could mark a before and after.

[Wakate]

Analysis on over dependence on statistical material can render the force of luck and random variable that cannot be mathematically calculated in sport. Provided that the only key to success was number, the gambling industry would have fallen a long time ago under the impact of the amount of freely available information. In fact, the fact that bookmakers continue to succeed attests to the fact that most of the player are still stuck in the delusion of victory in the midst of all the data available.

I believe that many bettors don't base their bets on statistics, but on what they think will happen. That's why there's so much reliance on parlays and raffles. But this is obvious; I don't see everyone looking for numbers to see what's most likely to happen or who will win. Maybe they can see numbers, but there are many bettors who simply don't understand those numbers or don't know how to interpret them.

If you don't based your bet on statistics you will still need it for you to know the performances of that club you want to add to your game whether they are in good formation or a weak team. All these statistics are important if you want to make a good prediction from your bets. You can not shy away from using past statistics to guess what the next match will be like.

[Franklyn-wood]

If those games are rigged then they are not going to have the same popularity for very long and it's not just a sport anymore it is kind of business that makes more money when they win so everyone wants to win but we can't also deny the games can be fixed or atleast the players but those are rare and saying the entire league is rigged seems like a bit of exaggeration that is coming out of desperation.

Feel OP might be saying this out the shock or surprise he got from a game he thought no matter what happens they must win, which many of us have experience this and at the end of the game what was predict was not what we saw. I have always told people that no body can 100% be sure of any game predicted. Based on observation in gambling one just have to be cautious while predicting any kind of games, no body is perfect or a professional when it comes to forecasting a game.

[noorman0]

Sports betting is the only form of betting where the outcome can be reasonably predicted historically. If you're simply not mentioning leagues to avoid speculation that they're rigging matches, you're little mistaken. There are many parties involved in sports betting, each with the potential to manipulate the outcome of bets, not just the outcome of matches.

[Onyeeze]

Analysis on over dependence on statistical material can render the force of luck and random variable that cannot be mathematically calculated in sport. Provided that the only key to success was number, the gambling industry would have fallen a long time ago under the impact of the amount of freely available information. In fact, the fact that bookmakers continue to succeed attests to the fact that most of the player are still stuck in the delusion of victory in the midst of all the data available.

You see the reason why a lot gamblers still end up falling into several traps is because they are still very ignorant of this very truth. They still believe their skills and analysis is just enough to fetch them the win they want. Indeed there are games that this could be considered true, which is the skill based games. BUt in games like sports betting, Luck is what a player really needs and not really skills, sure they do need skills but only to an extent, because what the skills really does is to help increase their chances of winning and not to win.

there are a particular place that I want correct you especially where you said that in some gambling winning is not by luck, but I want to disagree with your suggestions that gambling the win in basically come from luck not something that you may say that you are perfect in predicting matches in gambling because if it is possible to the perfect in gambling I don't think that most of people who is into gambling today will be losing, I have noticed that gambling is something that comes luck and it is not something your idea can be giving you a constant winning

[kawetsriyanto]

The people who think winning in gambling is by their power, strength and skills are those that calls themselves expertise in gambling but in reality there is nothing like expertise because they do make loss and sometimes they even make bigger losses because of the kind of stake they use because since they believe they are good they leverage any amount thinking it will click for them and that is a very big mistake because luck is what keeps gamblers in winning though strategy can help minimize loss sometimes.

Specifically for the luck-based games, I agree that there is no term of "expert". All gamblers are experiencing losses, even the gamblers who have been in gambling for many years also can get losses. In this kind of gambling games, skills aren't needed because it will be useless.

Meanwhile for skill-based games, skills is also necessary although it can't guarantee for the win. Sure, we must keep gambling with safe amount of money although we think we have good skills. The skills may increase a bit of the chance of winning, but it doesn't mean skills determines the win. That's why we must always be ready for the chance of losses in gambling.

[Pandorak]

Skill or strategy will not always work to win, to win sports betting we have to rely on luck absolutely true, if luck helps then we will win. But skill and strategy can bring us closer to winning and even save ourselves from ruin. Gambling is truly for entertainment, I think gambling can never be an easy way to make money. If we start looking at gambling as an easy way to make money then gambling can very easily lead us to ruin.

I always say that no matter how skilled you are at analyzing games or using statistics, it only increases your odds. In every bet, luck is always the key to winning, it’s not uncommon for a bet you’re confident in it often ends in a loss. That’s why it’s recommended to use money from a pre set gambling budget or more precisely, money you can afford to lose, so that if the bet doesn’t go as expected, you won’t be too stressed by the loss. Frustration is inevitable, since you were confident beforehand, but the most important thing is that the loss doesn’t affect your mental state or cause excessive stress.

[danadc]

If you don't based your bet on statistics you will still need it for you to know the performances of that club you want to add to your game whether they are in good formation or a weak team. All these statistics are important if you want to make a good prediction from your bets. You can not shy away from using past statistics to guess what the next match will be like.

Yes, what you say makes sense, it's good in that respect. Of course, for someone who isn't very experienced, statistics are undoubtedly the best. That's why in this case I'm more inclined to believe what I've seen and how they play. It's difficult to watch all the football matches or every game of the sport we're betting on, but those who do have a better understanding of how each team plays, and that helps a lot.

[LastKiss]

If you don't based your bet on statistics you will still need it for you to know the performances of that club you want to add to your game whether they are in good formation or a weak team. All these statistics are important if you want to make a good prediction from your bets. You can not shy away from using past statistics to guess what the next match will be like.

Yes, what you say makes sense, it's good in that respect. Of course, for someone who isn't very experienced, statistics are undoubtedly the best. That's why in this case I'm more inclined to believe what I've seen and how they play. It's difficult to watch all the football matches or every game of the sport we're betting on, but those who do have a better understanding of how each team plays, and that helps a lot.

Yeah that’s why we don’t need to chase every match or every sport. We should only bet on the sport we’re highly confident in, even if we watch football, basketball or e-sports like CS2, Valorant and many more. It’s better to focus on one that we truly confident. If we try to bet on too many sports, it’s no different from being greedy and forcing ourselves. I agree that statistics are one of the best tools we can use in sports betting, especially when we’re new to sports betting.

[iamlegit168]

as far as I know, there are house edge, so we will have to pay the fee in the long run, thats why I feel sometime the games are rigged.

[Frankolala]

as far as I know, there are house edge, so we will have to pay the fee in the long run, thats why I feel sometime the games are rigged.

Bet on big leagues that the game will be difficult to rig since, there is a big penalty to whomever is found in such action. The bookies ain't always smart because sometimes, the game ends up against them. However, gambling is a game of luck and luck comes by chance which makes it difficult for you to win your bet often.

[Orpichukwu]

as far as I know, there are house edge, so we will have to pay the fee in the long run, thats why I feel sometime the games are rigged.

There is a house edge, and there is also the possibility of match-fixing in small leagues, but game rigging doesn't happen all the time. Even if you are playing slots, some games' results could be confirmed using the game and user seed for those casinos whose games are probably fair; not all are rigged like we suspect sometimes due to not winning enough.

[Fredomago]

Analysis on over dependence on statistical material can render the force of luck and random variable that cannot be mathematically calculated in sport. Provided that the only key to success was number, the gambling industry would have fallen a long time ago under the impact of the amount of freely available information. In fact, the fact that bookmakers continue to succeed attests to the fact that most of the player are still stuck in the delusion of victory in the midst of all the data available.

I believe that many bettors don't base their bets on statistics, but on what they think will happen. That's why there's so much reliance on parlays and raffles. But this is obvious; I don't see everyone looking for numbers to see what's most likely to happen or who will win. Maybe they can see numbers, but there are many bettors who simply don't understand those numbers or don't know how to interpret them.

If you don't based your bet on statistics you will still need it for you to know the performances of that club you want to add to your game whether they are in good formation or a weak team. All these statistics are important if you want to make a good prediction from your bets. You can not shy away from using past statistics to guess what the next match will be like.

Most common basis is the past performances and how the team's chemistry, though it's never an assurance but similar to what you said it's just giving you a extra comfort knowing that you have good understanding but the outcome always defend to how the team will play plus other factors that may affect the result like injuries or players being sided or how the officials judge the game those are additional factors aside from statistics that really affecting the outcome that you also need to consider.

[kotajikikox]

It’s hard to give an opinion if there’s no specific sports or league being mentioned here because sports have different organizations and type of management to ensure fair league.

Honestly no matter what the league or sport we’re talking about, there’s always bound to be some politics involved. Remember that these leagues are also in it for the money. They’ll do everything even favor specific teams/athletes in order to cater to fans ir whoever got the money.