Alvarez vs Mbilli - WBC Super Middleweight confirmed Oct. 31

[Darker45]

We have seen few upsets lately in boxing, could this one be included in the trend? We have three weeks to go before fight night and i'm looking at Mbilli to win by decision @5.20, that for me is worth the try.

The odds speak enough of the risk. I don't think Canelo would be defeated by M'billi, especially not via decision. I'm expecting that if a round could be given to either fighters, it would most likely go to Canelo.

Apart from that, it seems M'billi's fighting style isn't the kind that frustrates Canelo. I've only watched M'billi's highlights against Martinez and I don't even think the boxer is a threat, except perhaps if Canelo would show that his age has already caught up to him on fight night.

If not, and M'billi won't be the fighter that would keep Canelo chasing, attacks and throws counters once Canelo opens up, and then quickly goes away, this is probably Canelo's game. If M'billi fights like Canelo, the way I saw in his fight against Martinez, he'd probably lose.

[aioc]

....M'billi's fighting style isn't the kind that frustrates Canelo. I've only watched M'billi's highlights against Martinez and I don't even think the boxer is a threat, except perhaps if Canelo would show that his age has already caught up to him on fight night.

Only Canelo can beat himself if the age finally catches up with him, then his opponents need to do their thing, but if Canelo still has it, then he can put a big challenge to everyone, honestly, for me, this is a cherry picked fght for Canelo to look good after that Crawford loss, he needs to beat a boxer who looks tough and with a good record to get another big money fight.

This is a very interesting fight; many want to see if Canelo is still the same Canelo after the Crawford fight, or if Mbili shows up well prepared, he can hand Canelo his retirement in the ring.

[bisdak40]

The odds speak enough of the risk. I don't think Canelo would be defeated by M'billi, especially not via decision. I'm expecting that if a round could be given to either fighters, it would most likely go to Canelo.

Apart from that, it seems M'billi's fighting style isn't the kind that frustrates Canelo. I've only watched M'billi's highlights against Martinez and I don't even think the boxer is a threat, except perhaps if Canelo would show that his age has already caught up to him on fight night.

If not, and M'billi won't be the fighter that would keep Canelo chasing, attacks and throws counters once Canelo opens up, and then quickly goes away, this is probably Canelo's game. If M'billi fights like Canelo, the way I saw in his fight against Martinez, he'd probably lose.

I’ve reviewed the highlights of that fight between Mbilli vs. Martinez and it seems you are right ,Mbilli is not the kind of fighter who could frustrate Canelo Álvarez, as he is slower compared to Crawford and Bivol, and his defense is not as good as Bivol’s. So he might get hurt with Canelo’s body shots, which are one of his most lethal weapons. But I also don’t believe that Canelo can knock out Mbilli, because from what I see he is one tough customer. There’s a high probability this fight will go the distance in favor of Canelo, and those @1.83 odds for that option are not bad at all, we’ll just make our bet a bit bigger.

[Darker45]

~snip~

I’ve reviewed the highlights of that fight between Mbilli vs. Martinez and it seems you are right ,Mbilli is not the kind of fighter who could frustrate Canelo Álvarez, as he is slower compared to Crawford and Bivol, and his defense is not as good as Bivol’s. So he might get hurt with Canelo’s body shots, which are one of his most lethal weapons. But I also don’t believe that Canelo can knock out Mbilli, because from what I see he is one tough customer. There’s a high probability this fight will go the distance in favor of Canelo, and those @1.83 odds for that option are not bad at all, we’ll just make our bet a bit bigger.

Those are nice odds. The fight could indeed end in a decision. And if the scorecards will determine the winner, they'll most likely favor Canelo. Between an unknown fighter who's not even a rising star and a legend, any close round will automatically go to the latter.

But I'm not discounting the possibility of Canelo knocking out M'billi. M'billi is an easy target. He stays in front all the time, doesn't come and go, not that athletic, and seems to have much lower ring IQ than Crawford. Also, in his 10-rounder fight again Martinez, he seemed to have ran out of gas before the fight ended. You won't survive Canelo with that condition.

[FinneysTrueVision]

You would think that Riyadh being under imminent threat of continued missile strikes would be reason enough for organizers to cancel or relocate the event, but there is no indication of this happening so far. The fight is still being promoted on The Ring and DAZN’s socials like it’s business as usual. It’s really puzzling.

[yhiaali3]

I don't know if this is overconfidence or arrogance because Canelo Alvarez confidently points out that his opponent, Christian Mbappé, has a "zero chance" of beating him.

Sometimes arrogance can be fatal to its owner because it motivates the opponent to fight fiercely to punish him for his arrogance and make him regret what he said. In any case, the fight seems somewhat even, so let's wait and see.

[Ryu_Ar1]

Of course, Canelo is still the main attraction among Mexican boxing fans, so he gets a favor to fight a champion that the organization will find easy to deal with, and that is Mbili, but Mbili is a real deal; he may not have the ring generalship of Crawford, but he packs a power on both hands.
Canelo moved slowly in his last fight against Crawford. Let's see if he is still the Canelo the boxing world has known.

Right now Canelo's probability of winning in this fight is pretty big even when looking at how kalshi's prediction market is I'm not surprised to see how their probability is pretty big in terms of gap.



But it is understandable because in terms of match hours and Canelo's current record, he is still the favorite to win.
Only here does not mean Mbilli can not give a surprise to Canelo, if he can stick to Canelo and continue to force a fight with a fast tempo at the beginning of the round in the hope of draining stamina and maximizing the benefits of the age difference maybe this can still be for Mbilli to make unexpected results although this method is also a little risky because when the intensity of the blows is accelerated then this can also be a crisis for Mbilli when hit by counters from Canelo's movements.
I'll be on Canelo's side for this even though Mbilli is one tough fighter but I'm pretty sure Canelo can continue his dominance.

[fighter2627]

I don't think Alvarez gets the pressure here. He's even mocking Mbilli by said he would not able to beat him even when he was 50 years old. So i see the amount of confidence owned by him to fight Mbilli in this game. However, i hope he puts some respect on his opponent.

He might have been hiding that with that kind of mockery. Alvarez is on a must win situation here. He is coming from a big lost to Crawford and he can't afford back to back loses. His aura has gone, shattered already. So if he losses here, might be very hard for him to comeback.

Canelo is just selling the fight, and he also wants to motivate Mbili. Mbili is not a top-notch boxer; this is his first major fight, and he wants Mbili to come out strong and challenged, but there is a hint of truthfulness in what Canelo is saying.
Mbili is not on Canelo's level, and Canelo losing this fight is a big blow to his legacy, so he should be more motivated to win this fight and win it grandly.

Well I think canelo is on advantage only for his experience and it is not just the opponents. That is why Canelo is only leading in this part.

But if we look at the standing records, for me, Mbilli is superior due to first, no one, if ever, can beat him, second, he is younger and more agile than Canelo,
who is at least of the same age.

[SatsPH]

I don't know if this is overconfidence or arrogance because Canelo Alvarez confidently points out that his opponent, Christian Mbappé, has a "zero chance" of beating him.

That is Canelo, he is really very confident in his every fight to the point that he downgrade his opponent and this is trash talking to the fullest. But I will have to correct you that his opponent is Mbili and not Mbappe the football player.

Sometimes arrogance can be fatal to its owner because it motivates the opponent to fight fiercely to punish him for his arrogance and make him regret what he said. In any case, the fight seems somewhat even, so let's wait and see.

Yes, but this is Canelo, he has face the best already, losing to some of them. So it's right that he can be as arrogant as he can be because he can back it up with his power and winning maybe by knockout or by judges decision.

[coin-investor]

I don't know if this is overconfidence or arrogance because Canelo Alvarez confidently points out that his opponent, Christian Mbappé, has a "zero chance" of beating him.

It depends on who is saying this. Canelo is just stating the fact; this is not overconfidence or belittling his opponent. He is actually motivating his opponent to prove himself and come and beat him. This is part of selling a fight, fighters do this to excite the fans.

Sometimes arrogance can be fatal to its owner because it motivates the opponent to fight fiercely to punish him for his arrogance and make him regret what he said. In any case, the fight seems somewhat even, so let's wait and see.

That's exactly what Canelo wants. Canelo has gone through a lot of wars, and he wants this to become a war, like what I already said, it's part of selling the fight, and many boxers hav done that.

[bisdak40]

You would think that Riyadh being under imminent threat of continued missile strikes would be reason enough for organizers to cancel or relocate the event, but there is no indication of this happening so far. The fight is still being promoted on The Ring and DAZN’s socials like it’s business as usual. It’s really puzzling.

I actually posted about this a week ago, saying there might be changes to the venue because of the conflict between the government of Saudi Arabia and the Houthis. But until now, they still haven’t released any advisory about it. For me, it really isn’t safe for the boxers and the spectators, they could end up being targets of the Houthis. From what I’ve observed, the organizers of this fight seem very calm, maybe they already have a backup plan in case things really escalate in Saudi Arabia. Let’s just wait and see.