Sticking with the Favorites : World Cup edition

[AHOYBRAUSE]

Funny thread. In this world cup sticking to the favorites seems like a lost cause but you seem to be up for whatever reason aren't you? Didn't read all the pages but obviously I expect you to have had a a lot of expensive losses on that experiment.
Never seen so many teams having big problem with total scrubs, actually crazy. Add Germany into the mix from 12 hours ago and we got another example. 

[KTChampions]

Funny thread. In this world cup sticking to the favorites seems like a lost cause but you seem to be up for whatever reason aren't you? Didn't read all the pages but obviously I expect you to have had a a lot of expensive losses on that experiment.
Never seen so many teams having big problem with total scrubs, actually crazy. Add Germany into the mix from 12 hours ago and we got another example. 

It seems you haven't read even one page of this thread, because if you had, you would have known that the OP is in the plus (he was in the minus for a while, but for a short period of time).
As for Germany (and also the USA, which played with their second team yesterday), everything is clear - if the team has guaranteed itself first place, then there is no point in straining themselves (for what purpose lol?) in the third game, they just need to prepare for the playoffs (which is what we saw).

[SamReomo]

Funny thread. In this world cup sticking to the favorites seems like a lost cause but you seem to be up for whatever reason aren't you? Didn't read all the pages but obviously I expect you to have had a a lot of expensive losses on that experiment.

It's not that funny, he created the thread with intention to sticking with the favorites and he knows very well that favorites aren't performing any good in this World Cup, but again he didn't change his mind, and is continuing to place his bets on favorites.

If I'm not wrong, his idea was not to make profit or lose but to stick with the favorites no matter if there will be losses or wins, and it's more like an experiment where he's taking risk to let others know via this thread that what could be the result if someone sticks with favorites.

[L E G E N D A R Y]

It's not that funny, he created the thread with intention to sticking with the favorites and he knows very well that favorites aren't performing any good in this World Cup, but again he didn't change his mind, and is continuing to place his bets on favorites.

If I'm not wrong, his idea was not to make profit or lose but to stick with the favorites no matter if there will be losses or wins, and it's more like an experiment where he's taking risk to let others know via this thread that what could be the result if someone sticks with favorites.

You are right and that is how some fans are, they stick with their favourites no matter what the outcome might be, they don't care and they don't switch either, they just remain where they are giving out the best support and even if they bet, they don't do it for profit or loss but for the fun and to make sure they don't lose their hope, as they believe there can still be a turnaround. So you are right, its not funny though because they have their own agenda of acting their way even when they are aware that their favourites might meet their expectations.

[stompix]

Funny thread. In this world cup sticking to the favorites seems like a lost cause but you seem to be up for whatever reason aren't you?

I am up because the favorites have won twice as many times as losing, and their overall odds were higher than 1.5
(2x)y > x as long as y is bigger than 0.5!

Didn't read all the pages but obviously I expect you to have had a a lot of expensive losses on that experiment.

There are no expensive losses, all the losses are the same, of all people, I'm surprised you're not familiar with Level Stakes Return.

As for Germany (and also the USA, which played with their second team yesterday), everything is clear - if the team has guaranteed itself first place, then there is no point in straining themselves (for what purpose lol?) in the third game, they just need to prepare for the playoffs (which is what we saw).

Yeah, the writing was on the wall for those games but this is an experiment on continuity, not cherry-picking, so keep piling the losses. 

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Now, the problems I ran into, there had to be problems even in this easy-peasy level-zero garbage!

1) Paraguay Australia had by definition no favorite, 1 was 2.75, X was 2.50, it ended 0-0
a) I either exclude this game
b) I count it as a win since the most likely result won (don't feel like it's the right choice)

2) Cape Verde - Saudi Arabia is 2.83 to 2.77, but with one bookie offering  2.75 to 2.80, Betfair has them tied at 2.50
a) I exclude the game
b) I take the lower odds for the overall SP prices, maybe they clear up in the next remaining 15 minutes

3) I just realized that the elimination rounds have two options
a) betting on the winner in 90minutes
b) betting on the winner of the game....
Pain in the ass, but I think I will stick with the winner of the game, the one who qualifies for the next round!

I will update the topic when all the group rounds are over with * for special cases like the two games above!
 

[junder]

It's not that funny, he created the thread with intention to sticking with the favorites and he knows very well that favorites aren't performing any good in this World Cup, but again he didn't change his mind, and is continuing to place his bets on favorites.

If I'm not wrong, his idea was not to make profit or lose but to stick with the favorites no matter if there will be losses or wins, and it's more like an experiment where he's taking risk to let others know via this thread that what could be the result if someone sticks with favorites.

If the goal is to make a profit or avoid a loss but you prioritize supporting your favorite team, you don’t always have to place a bet when your favorite team is playing. And in my opinion, if the goal is to make a profit you shouldn’t limit yourself to just your favorite team many teams compete with their own respective chances of winning, so take advantage of that to make a profit through betting.

Just because someone fully supports their favorite team doesn’t mean they have to bet on every game their favorite team plays. I myself bet on my favorite team only occasionally, just to add to the excitement of the game.

[KTChampions]

As for Germany (and also the USA, which played with their second team yesterday), everything is clear - if the team has guaranteed itself first place, then there is no point in straining themselves (for what purpose lol?) in the third game, they just need to prepare for the playoffs (which is what we saw).

Yeah, the writing was on the wall for those games but this is an experiment on continuity, not cherry-picking, so keep piling the losses. 

-------

Now, the problems I ran into, there had to be problems even in this easy-peasy level-zero garbage!

1) Paraguay Australia had by definition no favorite, 1 was 2.75, X was 2.50, it ended 0-0
a) I either exclude this game
b) I count it as a win since the most likely result won (don't feel like it's the right choice)

2) Cape Verde - Saudi Arabia is 2.83 to 2.77, but with one bookie offering  2.75 to 2.80, Betfair has them tied at 2.50
a) I exclude the game
b) I take the lower odds for the overall SP prices, maybe they clear up in the next remaining 15 minutes

3) I just realized that the elimination rounds have two options
a) betting on the winner in 90minutes
b) betting on the winner of the game....
Pain in the ass, but I think I will stick with the winner of the game, the one who qualifies for the next round!

I will update the topic when all the group rounds are over with * for special cases like the two games above!

1. I think better to exclude.
2. Same
3. I think it's better to evaluate the playoffs as playoffs - someone goes further and someone loses, i.e. two outcomes.

Have you seen the odds for the Algeria vs. Austria game? They're currently:

4.30 - 2.18 - 3.15

  This is such a disgrace! But the caveat is that if Croatia draws and Congo wins, then Algeria, with their -2 goal difference, a draw will be too little to get into the playoffs. And damn it, everything turned out so that Algeria’s game is their last and they will know all the conditions.

[Achalugo BTC]

Exactly, the teams that we are in support of are not really invincible and no matter how good they might be with predictions the result is not going to be the same thing

One thing people don't really understand in football is that, it doesn't really care about predictions or reputations, as the game can just twist at any time and you know, no one is in really in control of it, for me I support whoever team that is winning, any team that is giving me the kind of vibes I want that is the one I will support, for me to protect my emotions and my mental state. So, its either one just gamble and play along because at the end of the day, its a game of fun and entertainment.

[Hispo]

Funny thread. In this world cup sticking to the favorites seems like a lost cause but you seem to be up for whatever reason aren't you? Didn't read all the pages but obviously I expect you to have had a a lot of expensive losses on that experiment.
Never seen so many teams having big problem with total scrubs, actually crazy. Add Germany into the mix from 12 hours ago and we got another example. 

Yes, the match between Ecuador and Germany was a very good example on why sticking to favorites and previous champions of the world cup is never a good idea, specially when comes to staking an important amount of money on those teams.
This world cup has been actually quite unpredictable, and I am sure there have been millions of people who have lost a lot on money because they decided to stick to favorites during the world cup.

If going for favorites was a profitable strategy in the long term for bettors, then I am sure there would be millions of profesional bettors, they would not need to work, just to see their money multiplying thanks to relatively safe bets.
That is not the case, of course.

Anyone who went with a parlay in favor of favorite teams like Germany are already under water because of the victory of Ecuador.

[tread93]

Funny thread. In this world cup sticking to the favorites seems like a lost cause but you seem to be up for whatever reason aren't you? Didn't read all the pages but obviously I expect you to have had a a lot of expensive losses on that experiment.
Never seen so many teams having big problem with total scrubs, actually crazy. Add Germany into the mix from 12 hours ago and we got another example. 

Yes this just goes to show you than anything can happen in these world cup games. I feel bad that sometimes things like this can happen but in the grand scheme of things we have to remember that we are gambling and there are usually a lot of things that can go wrong or either happen in your favor. OP had a crazy toss up and you know what? I'm sure at the end of the day he still had a lot of fun too. This is the World Cup! Fuck what you want, fate will decide!

[stompix]

~

1. I think better to exclude.
2. Same
3. I think it's better to evaluate the playoffs as playoffs - someone goes further and someone loses, i.e. two outcomes.

Yeah, that was my thinking too, so 3 games are excluded

Paraguay - Australia (draw was lower than 1/2)
Algeria - Austria (same)
Cape-Verde - Saudi Arabia (no clear favorite/ 2.50/2.50 on Betfair)

Now, there will be of course, fewer than 72 games, just 69... please no stupid jokes

69 games

46 wins, 23 losses!

Total wagered 69

Total Profit 5.35

So the profit rate  is 7.75% over 17 days, beating all staking, stocks, bonds!  

Now, if I see one message saying that is not worth sticking with the favorites because you lose or something else, all any other kind of quota gibberish, ignoring the actual statistics and results, I'm going to get a bit angry! So anyone, read before typing!

If going for favorites was a profitable strategy in the long term for bettors, then I am sure there would be millions of profesional bettors, they would not need to work, just to see their money multiplying thanks to relatively safe bets.
That is not the case, of course.

This WAS the case, so you might want to come back and rephrase this!

[KTChampions]

1. I think better to exclude.
2. Same
3. I think it's better to evaluate the playoffs as playoffs - someone goes further and someone loses, i.e. two outcomes.

Yeah, that was my thinking too, so 3 games are excluded

Paraguay - Australia (draw was lower than 1/2)
Algeria - Austria (same)
Cape-Verde - Saudi Arabia (no clear favorite/ 2.50/2.50 on Betfair)

Now, there will be of course, fewer than 72 games, just 69... please no stupid jokes

It's immediately obvious that you're not young (no offense!) Jokes about 69 are elite, time-tested humor, degenerate humor now goes about 67 

So the profit rate  is 7.75% over 17 days, beating all staking, stocks, bonds!  

These are the facts 
And I think it's safe to say that the actual yield obtained is more than 10%, since we did not take into account any bonuses that bookmakers give for activity and wagering.
Plus (purely theoretically) if we are in the black, then the mathematical expectation was positive, which means that using the Kelly criterion (any similar method) would also increase the final figures.
Good luck in the playoffs!

[rachael9385]

Yes this just goes to show you than anything can happen in these world cup games. I feel bad that sometimes things like this can happen but in the grand scheme of things we have to remember that we are gambling and there are usually a lot of things that can go wrong or either happen in your favor. OP had a crazy toss up and you know what? I'm sure at the end of the day he still had a lot of fun too. This is the World Cup! Fuck what you want, fate will decide!

This is something that some gamblers fail to remember, anything can happen and we must always be ready for the worst outcome. Betting consistently on an option you are sure of can actually be a dangerous move to make. The world cup is highly competitive and anything can happen at the end of the day.

[Achalugo BTC]

This is something that some gamblers fail to remember, anything can happen and we must always be ready for the worst outcome. Betting consistently on an option you are sure of can actually be a dangerous move to make. The world cup is highly competitive and anything can happen at the end of the day.

Its not even good for one to bet consistently, as it might lead them into becoming addicted and when that happens, they begin to spend unnecessary as it will still lead to more loss, so even though that one should be expecting the worst to take place im gambling, they should also be aware that giving gambling much attention will cause more harm than good to their lives and their plans too. Adhering to these keys its the only way to keep one grounded with the right mindset towards gambling and keep the fun intact.

[KTChampions]

Its not even good for one to bet consistently, as it might lead them into becoming addicted and when that happens, they begin to spend unnecessary as it will still lead to more loss, so even though that one should be expecting the worst to take place im gambling, they should also be aware that giving gambling much attention will cause more harm than good to their lives and their plans too. Adhering to these keys its the only way to keep one grounded with the right mindset towards gambling and keep the fun intact.

All of this is true, but you can think about it this way: in betting (as probably everywhere else) the vast majority of bettors are not professionals (to be honest, many are just idiots), so the market is not efficient and professionals have some room to make a profit. And as you can see from this thread, there are simple ways to make a profit. Yes, it's not guaranteed, and there are risks and all that, but I think compared to banks (people in developing countries know what a scam that is), the risks aren't much different.

[rachael9385]

Its not even good for one to bet consistently, as it might lead them into becoming addicted and when that happens, they begin to spend unnecessary as it will still lead to more loss, so even though that one should be expecting the worst to take place im gambling, they should also be aware that giving gambling much attention will cause more harm than good to their lives and their plans too. Adhering to these keys its the only way to keep one grounded with the right mindset towards gambling and keep the fun intact.

Gambling consistently isn't a good idea because the game is programmed for those that are gambling consistently to lose in the long run, this is why it's important to always limit the rate at which you gamble because In the long run the more you put in too much time into gambling it yields negative results .