Sticking with the Favorites : World Cup edition

[darxiaomi]

What a nice thread as buway said above me thanks to KTC for sharing it in other thread, it could be nice stompix jsut join us in some of the contest, seems like you are one active guy and you could take part in the contest.

Later im gonna try to read the whole thread more carefully, but yes this WC is the first one with so many teams and some of them are below of what it could be considered good so that could incline it in favour of the favorite.

[Derekfunds]

Asides from the world cup when it comes to sports betting generally it is always better to bet logically and avoid sticking to favorites because this strategy has a very high chance of failing at some point. The world cup is very unpredictable and just from the . matches we have seen for sometime now a lot of big teams have been messing up.

That's right, this method saves one from a lot of pain, that is why one should not just stick to their favourites but has to pick randomly to protect their peace of mind and for the sake of one not to emotionally be trapped, they should not have any particular teams in mind, this way they will not have to chase after their loss eventually if they lose their bet because the game is very unpredictable and that is why one has to play the game with cautiousness.

Exactly, some people don't know that in terms of prediction and betting anyhting favorite should be kept aside because it is game that is very tricky and corny in such a way that if you don't calm down and follow the trend well you will keep losing all the time. Okay you can imagine Germany and Netherlands that was sent out in the game, they were favorite right but they were knocked out by a different team that you can not compare them to so that is why we should not be predicting because of favorite.

[darewaller]

So from what I gather, it is at 10% profit rate, meaning if you started with 1000 dollars, and wagered on 76 games or whatever, you would have 1100 dollars for now. The reason why most people do not do it is because one bad streak and it's all gone, so while it does show a good chunk of profit for now, it was very touch and go and anything could have happened.

This is why we should be careful about it and not really realize that we are going to end up with anything good, we are going to have some trouble if anything goes wrong but as we can see, it may do well too.

[danadc]

I'm not sticking with the favorites because they're the ones I think have the least chance of winning. I've seen African teams that have made a difference, and some South American countries have produced teams that I don't think they would have, so this World Cup could have more surprises. I'd like to see a match between Argentina and France, but I think that would happen in a final.

[Versatile_choice]

Exactly, some people don't know that in terms of prediction and betting anyhting favorite should be kept aside because it is game that is very tricky and corny in such a way that if you don't calm down and follow the trend well you will keep losing all the time. Okay you can imagine Germany and Netherlands that was sent out in the game, they were favorite right but they were knocked out by a different team that you can not compare them to so that is why we should not be predicting because of favorite.

It seems that you make your own judgment based on country's name, yes I know this strategy used to work perfectly for gamblers in some years back. But currently there are alot of changes in these world cup, those teams that we used to think they are underdog years back has changed alot.

Of course we saw how the 2026 FIFA world cup went and for that, seeing that Germany and netherland has been eliminated from the 2026 FIFA world cup is not surprising. And if you ask me, I would Say that they were lazy that is why they were knocked out from the 2026 FIFA world cup.

[junder]

Its not even good for one to bet consistently, as it might lead them into becoming addicted and when that happens, they begin to spend unnecessary as it will still lead to more loss, so even though that one should be expecting the worst to take place im gambling, they should also be aware that giving gambling much attention will cause more harm than good to their lives and their plans too. Adhering to these keys its the only way to keep one grounded with the right mindset towards gambling and keep the fun intact.

If the goal is simply to root for your favorite team then you should bet only on that team during the game.
However, if the goal is to make a profit, you should bet on all the teams competing or on several matches taking place even if the competing teams aren’t your favorites as long as you’re confident that one team will win because its chances of winning are greater than those of its opponent.
My advice is that, whatever your goal don’t overdo it when gambling, because this can be dangerous for you.

[stompix]

And here, ladies and gentlemen, you have the god of shitposting showering his knowledge upon us mortals!

I'm not sticking with the favorites because they're the ones I think have the least chance of winning.

----------------------------

Good result, but look at the really weird one in this thread: Beat the Bookie
We're playing for real money, all bets are recorded, and the number of bets and participants is significant enough to judge the long-term outcome. At the moment, we are in a serious plus.
Perhaps greed or the competition mechanics will ruin everything, but I'm very surprised. I wish I knew the bookmakers' statistics for the World Cup right now, because in two threads we see that players are in the black.

Statistics aside as seems like I can't see the whole history again, but isn't Hhampuz leading by a huge margin because of a single insane bet?
Of course, again this shows that the World Cup, despite its surprises, was still pretty predictable, once this stuff is done and over I need to parse all those results and see the biggest surprises on the lower odds, I have a feeling the deviation is barely noticeable overall.

And another example of how the "bookies always win" is not true at all, I doubt we will see any stats on how much they lost but they do lose really bad when favorites keep winning, reminds me of this: https://www.ft.com/content/2157a35b-9d5c-3840-967b-9fc5abf40d01?syn-25a6b1a6=1

I'll need to look at your experiment, but this World Cup has a great explanation as to why favourites have won more often in this shorter format -- it's an expanded version. So 4 teams who expect to be in the final, perhaps 8 teams with a good shout at it, maybe 12 teams who, with minor miracles and bracket luck, could appear in the final and have a 10% shot at winning it... and then 24 teams who are absolute shit.

Yeah, I think people point out surprises like they point Ferraris on the street, you see two of them and wow, incredible,  and you ignore the 200 000 over 20-year-old mobile rust dispensers driving around you every day.

Love this thread, and the earlier one. I used to track daily betting (almost) for some years until real life became a pain. I should make a compilation -- have you?

This is the problem with targeted betting: it becomes a pain in the ass, I could keep track of my favorite horses' bets every week with no problem. When you deal with stuff that's just numbers and you don't care that much about the actual event, it stops being funny and looks more like daily work.

After this world cup is over I plan to parse the results from the previous 2 and make the statistics on it, I'm looking at two different angles for it, also, I plan to update the one with the favorites in the top 5 Euro leagues and start a better one next season, their current status is pretty bad and I'm not really that proud of them right now, I'll give you a ping if I tidy them up

What a nice thread as buway said above me thanks to KTC for sharing it in other thread, it could be nice stompix jsut join us in some of the contest, seems like you are one active guy and you could take part in the contest.

I'm a guaranteed loser because when it comes to competitions that involve parlays, at one point you get tired of always being in the rear  
Football and F1 seem to be my nemesis, no matter how good I do in horse racing, those two come and ruin every month.

-------------------------------------

Update time...I screwed up  
Because the favorites won their games in the 90 minutes, both of those that lost did it after the 90+ I put the wrong odds, exactly the opposite of what I agreed first

So, two-tier stats again:

Group Stage:

46 wins, 23 losses!
Total wagered 69
Total Profit 5.35
Profit rate  is 7.75%

This shit has ended, it's just copy pasta!!!!!

Knockout stage:
90 mins winner:

7 wins, 3 losses!
Total wagered 10/b]
Total Profit 2.40

Knockout stage:
Team to qualify:

8 wins, 2 losses!
Total wagered 10
Total Profit 0.67

Yup, the odds of qualifying are insanely low...this actually hurts!

Total overall:

54 wins, 25 losses!
Total wagered 79
Total Profit 6.02

[Achalugo BTC]

Exactly, some people don't know that in terms of prediction and betting anyhting favorite should be kept aside because it is game that is very tricky and corny in such a way that if you don't calm down and follow the trend well you will keep losing all the time. Okay you can imagine Germany and Netherlands that was sent out in the game, they were favorite right but they were knocked out by a different team that you can not compare them to so that is why we should not be predicting because of favorite.

That's is how it is, since its a game where teams has to compete themselves for who is going to get to the top, that is why most favorite are being knocked out, so its advisable for one to play or pick teams randomly and set aside anything called favorite to avoid disappointment and regrets, which they need not to except anything and control or manage their bankroll well, because if they make any wrong choice by deciding to chase after their loss, it can affect their mental health.

[buwaytress]

Love this thread, and the earlier one. I used to track daily betting (almost) for some years until real life became a pain. I should make a compilation -- have you?

This is the problem with targeted betting: it becomes a pain in the ass, I could keep track of my favorite horses' bets every week with no problem. When you deal with stuff that's just numbers and you don't care that much about the actual event, it stops being funny and looks more like daily work.

After this world cup is over I plan to parse the results from the previous 2 and make the statistics on it, I'm looking at two different angles for it, also, I plan to update the one with the favorites in the top 5 Euro leagues and start a better one next season, their current status is pretty bad and I'm not really that proud of them right now, I'll give you a ping if I tidy them up

Yeah, I actually surprised myself doing them quite religiously for about 3 seasons of European football, but it did become a chore once other responsibilities and income pressures crept in. I do share an interest with some people on "finding value" in sportsbetting, though, as a hobby if for nothing else, and I really felt like this sub had so little of that (the shitposting avalanche is pointless to complain about but I rant every now and then) so that kept me going but eventually I stopped simply because of the PITA. Not to mention my previous method of targeting value in the underdog seems to be well and truly defeated with the way books have juiced the long odds dry.

That's is how it is, since its a game where teams has to compete themselves for who is going to get to the top, that is why most favorite are being knocked out, so its advisable for one to play or pick teams randomly and set aside anything called favorite to avoid disappointment and regrets, which they need not to except anything and control or manage their bankroll well, because if they make any wrong choice by deciding to chase after their loss, it can affect their mental health.

You should sell your advice service to a casino. Pick teams randomly! It's good for mental health!

[nelson4lov]

Since OP probably gave up, has anyone actively being placing bets on favorites to win their games in the world cup so far. I know there have been several losses but have the wins managed to get you to breakeven or higher? I've not been consistent enough with betting on favorites and only doing it on some days where we have huge favorites like the France, England and today's Spain R32 matches. So far, has been won. But the tournament is only going to get tougher to place bets on favourites from here. Way more difficult.

[Grace333]

Sticking to the favorite is one of my favorite strategies because it's the most win I've recorded so far. Though it won't always go according to your analysis but sometimes it does and that is what makes it better than picking a huge multiplier with very little chances of turning up as you expect. So far the favorite teams in the world cup has been doing quite well but that doesn't mean that things will continue to be this way, this is football and anything can happen, so it would be a bad idea to judge the future based on the current situation.

[Bright0515]

Since OP probably gave up, has anyone actively being placing bets on favorites to win their games in the world cup so far. I know there have been several losses but have the wins managed to get you to breakeven or higher? I've not been consistent enough with betting on favorites and only doing it on some days where we have huge favorites like the France, England and today's Spain R32 matches. So far, has been won. But the tournament is only going to get tougher to place bets on favourites from here. Way more difficult.

it is a lost course and it is something that no one can succeed in no matter how hard they try, betting on favorites is not a guarantee of winning, just because they are better than the underdogs doesn't mean that they cannot make mistakes, they are definitely going to havw some setbacks. This is why it's better to always bet on a team not because they are the favourites but because statistically they are the ones that has more chances of winning based on research and not odds.

[Wakate]

I'm not sticking with the favorites because they're the ones I think have the least chance of winning. I've seen African teams that have made a difference, and some South American countries have produced teams that I don't think they would have, so this World Cup could have more surprises. I'd like to see a match between Argentina and France, but I think that would happen in a final.

There has been so many unimaginable occurrence in this world cup which had made some fans skeptical.
Who would have believed that Germany would be eliminated too early in the 2026 world cup. I am waiting to see the outcome between the match between Argentina and Cape Verde and there has been speculations and prophecies that said Argentina is going to lose to Cape Verde which is something unimaginable. I will not believe that until I see it in reality because the speculation is too expensive.

[FanEagle]

I mean, 6% in this many days is still a good return? To be fair, we have still no idea what's going to happen by the end. But if we end up with anything about five percent return, for the whole world cup, I would say that's not a bad thing at all. And I would like to implore you to think about starting a big topic regards to this, for the league as well. I know this is going to be very tough, but AI could maybe help.

How about, you build a system, where, every single week, you bet on the favourites to win ,for the five big leagues, you can add other leagues in another season when there is a request for it. But for the top five leagues, you do not even have to bet actually, just calculate the wins and losses and percentage, like X amount bet on favourites, every week, on every game. You can do whole five leagues together, or you can do league by league. That could be very fun to do.

[stompix]

Since OP probably gave up,

Are you blind, dumb, or stupid? You can pick up to five choices!

it is a lost course and it is something that no one can succeed in no matter how hard they try,

Hey idiot, read the damn topic before making your daily quota of shitspoting!

I mean, 6% in this many days is still a good return? To be fair, we have still no idea what's going to happen by the end. But if we end up with anything about five percent return, for the whole world cup, I would say that's not a bad thing at all. And I would like to implore you to think about starting a big topic regards to this, for the league as well. I know this is going to be very tough, but AI could maybe help.

I already did this previous season
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5507810.msg64478636#msg64478636
This was the outcome:

Last matches balance
- Individual bets balance  +7.82
- Multiplier balance -14

Total after all rounds and 327 games

- Individual bets balance +13.44
- Multiplier balance +2.58

But things with numbers and less non-sense shitposting don't get real traction here, so I didn't pursue keeping a topic again this year!

[KTChampions]

Good result, but look at the really weird one in this thread: Beat the Bookie
We're playing for real money, all bets are recorded, and the number of bets and participants is significant enough to judge the long-term outcome. At the moment, we are in a serious plus.
Perhaps greed or the competition mechanics will ruin everything, but I'm very surprised. I wish I knew the bookmakers' statistics for the World Cup right now, because in two threads we see that players are in the black.

Statistics aside as seems like I can't see the whole history again, but isn't Hhampuz leading by a huge margin because of a single insane bet?
~

I think with 500+ bets, we should expect some unusual results. They don't stand out from the statistics at all, but rather, they're consistent with them. Besides, his bet isn't crazy at all - it's only x22. The other bettor made x71, and I made x32, but we were betting $10.
Look, we're currently up $3,189 combined. Even if we completely discount Hhampuz result, we're still up a whopping $1,800.
I still have no ideas to explain such profitability, because we should be in the red.

As for the shitposters, when you quote their posts (I usually skip them automatically), it makes my blood boil. That's why I recommend creating self-moderated threads 

~ Not to mention my previous method of targeting value in the underdog seems to be well and truly defeated with the way books have juiced the long odds dry.
~

Yes, it hurts me to see odds for rare outcomes, if you believe the bookmakers, they happen every fucking day!
Prediction markets can help revive your method (may be). For example, the Cape Verde vs. Argentina qualifier is quoted at 9.20 at the bookmaker where we compete, but at 13.8 at Polymarket. 33% of fair value stolen!  LOL
But still, I think this alone will not be enough, more tricks are needed to get into the black.

[darbitmobilerecovery]

What a nice thread as buway said above me thanks to KTC for sharing it in other thread, it could be nice stompix jsut join us in some of the contest, seems like you are one active guy and you could take part in the contest.

I'm a guaranteed loser because when it comes to competitions that involve parlays, at one point you get tired of always being in the rear  
Football and F1 seem to be my nemesis, no matter how good I do in horse racing, those two come and ruin every month.

Well but we have some diferent aproachs to that, maybe in the BSFL you can find some good competition, there we have questions to answers and despite 50% are from football the other are normally about a ton of diferent sports from Basket/NFL/F1/Tennis/e-sport and a few more like Handball and ice hockey.

And well you know we also have the F1 pool which i manage  and some other very good community based contest. But i know they are time consuming sometimes.


Coming back to the topic, this round of R32 was crazy all the favorites unless Germany and Netherlands won and most of them did it with more luck than skill winning the game in the very last minute of the games.

[Lida93]

I'm not sticking with the favorites because they're the ones I think have the least chance of winning. I've seen African teams that have made a difference, and some South American countries have produced teams that I don't think they would have, so this World Cup could have more surprises. I'd like to see a match between Argentina and France, but I think that would happen in a final.

There has been so many unimaginable occurrence in this world cup which had made some fans skeptical.
Who would have believed that Germany would be eliminated too early in the 2026 world cup. I am waiting to see the outcome between the match between Argentina and Cape Verde and there has been speculations and prophecies that said Argentina is going to lose to Cape Verde which is something unimaginable. I will not believe that until I see it in reality because the speculation is too expensive.

Sincerely I just don't know what to think about the none favourite teams in the World Cup anymore with how they're being gradually eliminated while those that were selected as favourites from the onset are still progressing into the next stages by showing their dominance over the least favourites. Germany elimination by Paraguay was a shocker. It would be boring for me watching Argentina and France meet again in the final game so I wish we could have other teams getting into the finals.

[Smartprofit]

I'm not sticking with the favorites because they're the ones I think have the least chance of winning. I've seen African teams that have made a difference, and some South American countries have produced teams that I don't think they would have, so this World Cup could have more surprises. I'd like to see a match between Argentina and France, but I think that would happen in a final.

There has been so many unimaginable occurrence in this world cup which had made some fans skeptical.
Who would have believed that Germany would be eliminated too early in the 2026 world cup. I am waiting to see the outcome between the match between Argentina and Cape Verde and there has been speculations and prophecies that said Argentina is going to lose to Cape Verde which is something unimaginable. I will not believe that until I see it in reality because the speculation is too expensive.

Sincerely I just don't know what to think about the none favourite teams in the World Cup anymore with how they're being gradually eliminated while those that were selected as favourites from the onset are still progressing into the next stages by showing their dominance over the least favourites. Germany elimination by Paraguay was a shocker. It would be boring for me watching Argentina and France meet again in the final game so I wish we could have other teams getting into the finals.

I recently lost a bet on the Netherlands to win. It was a massive disappointment, as I woke up early this morning and immediately grabbed my smartphone to celebrate this European team's victory. But I couldn't enjoy it. 🙋

I really appreciate the "Black Swan Hunt" betting strategy, but I don't think it would be effective in the current situation. I would bet on Cape Verde to beat Argentina if the odds were 13.8, but I'm not at all willing to risk my money at 9.2.

I sincerely believe that the favorite football teams in this World Cup (Spain, France, England, Brazil, Argentina, and Morocco) have a significant advantage over their numerous, significantly weaker opponents. Therefore, betting on the favorites is, in my opinion, not a bad strategy at all. Let's forget about the Netherlands and Germany for now.🤷

[Rubuchi]

Exactly, some people don't know that in terms of prediction and betting anyhting favorite should be kept aside because it is game that is very tricky and corny in such a way that if you don't calm down and follow the trend well you will keep losing all the time. Okay you can imagine Germany and Netherlands that was sent out in the game, they were favorite right but they were knocked out by a different team that you can not compare them to so that is why we should not be predicting because of favorite.

I am responding to this comment because it is one mistake that many people do that leave them in serious losses. Allowing emotions to build up to the point it affects your sane decisions a problem many people find difficult to handle. When you are gambling and you are doing it for the money, you don't use emotions to choose your sides, you use your analysis and other factors of possibilities to do so. Emotions in gambling in most cases result to failure. Support who you think will be the winner on the basis of your analysis and informed decisions and not because of sentiments.