Would you buy a Parlay bet if you’re offered one?

[stompix]

So he offered to sell the game to me, added an extra $50 to the cashout amount.
~
If the game eventually pulls off, I’ll be making more than 5x of what I bought it

So, on top of the payout cashout you would pay $50 ands till make 5x...
Assuming the ticket cash-out is $50 and you pay another $50 and you still make $500 that would mean the rest of the odds are x10
Assuming the cash-out is $200 and you pay $50 and you make $1250 the odds come a bit close and you need 6 x...

Now, here is the thing...it makes no sense to buy it!
You're paying extra for what? Just put a ticket of your own on the remaining games!

[free-bit.co.in]

Well he claimed he has an emergency and urgent financial need he needs to attend to and wanted some quick cash to sort out that emergency, he also said he would have waited for the game to play through if he could be the game would finish in the next 2 days and that he’s confident about the game.

Or maybe he himself is not confident about the remaining 4 legs.

If his friend was so sure that he would win remaining 4 matche then he would have let the entire slip run without trying to sell it. Or he would have pressed the bookie's cashout button, since 6 match already won, so cashout amount should not be very bad. Actually, he is putting his own risk on your shoulders and taking a guaranteed profit himself. No sensible bettor would accept such an offer. Say no straight away!

If you are lucky enough and win that remaining 4 legs tomorrow and make 5 times profit then what is the guarantee that money will actually go into your pocket? Still it is your friend is actually the owner of that betting account, right?

As far as I know, slip ownership cannot be transferred according to the terms of the sportsbook.

[WhoYouCantKill]

There is actually no grantee in gambling, anything can happen, even if you believe you are going to win, you can still lose, nothing is sure in gambling.
A friend of mine was saying that he has a sure game to give to me and if I play it, I’m going to win and I told him no gambling prediction is sure, anything can happen.

Some people think that by using a particular strategy they are sure of winning regularly, but that is not true. I have tried a lot of strategy that some people may even not think about, but I still lose sometimes, so no gambling strategy is sure.
Just predict and believe it will go as predicted and don’t put too much faith on your prediction.

That’s true. There are indeed good strategies, but no matter how good a strategy is, it can never be perfect, and if a strategy can’t be perfect, then there’s no sure thing as a sure game, except maybe somehow the game is a fixed game, and even fixed games sometimes can go south. This unpredictability in gambling is in fact what makes gambling really interesting because there’ll absolutely be no fun in it if everything was actually predictable, in fact the casinos would’ve already closed down by now. So if anyone, no matter how good they are tells you their games are sure, they’re definitely trying to mislead you, and you’ll only be following them at your own peril.  

[Achalugo BTC]

Gamble is all about luck, which I believe everyone of us already knows; even those who literally think that they are very smart already know this. Before then, I wouldn't have believed that one day I would pay for a parlay, but here it did happen, and everything was a success because of luck. Actually, everything felt entertaining because I had to report to the guy about the success of the game. After all, he's my friend, and we all laughed about it. Well, even though I will be trying such things anyway in the future, I will make sure to watch carefully so that I don't regret my actions. My reasons for doing that are that I like trying new things, and luckily I didn't regret it, even though I haven't bought any games from anyone.

You were lucky then, but some people will think it's because you bet on the parlay, you won the game forgetting that gambling involves luck and there is every possibility that you may not get same opportunity again. But, it's good to keep your emotions and your budget balanced, that will allow you to continue seeing the game as a form of entertainment or a way to have fun. Playing this game with the mindset that it is not something to depend on, can help protect you from problems and it would be wiser and safer for gamblers adhere to this approach.

[Tungbulu]

Or maybe he himself is not confident about the remaining 4 legs.

Exactly my guess. I think the owner of the bet has lost confidence in the bet, and rather than just taking away $70, or whatever cashout he’s offered, he’s trying to see if he can come up with a proposal that can actually fetch him a few more bucks. Even though he claims his reason for wanting to sell the game is due to an emergency, I really don’t buy it, I don’t think that’s his reason. But whatever his reasons are, it’s up to the OP to decide whether he’ll be willing to take the risk or not.

[Die_empty]

If I were you, I wouldn't buy this bet just because I saw 6 greens. Just because the first 6 wins in a 10-leg parlay doesn't magically increase the probability of the remaining 4.

And 5x if you win thing wouldn't excite me too much either. Because buying just because of a big payout is gambling FOMO to me.

Four games are still too much to risk. There are high chances that one or two games might cut the parlay. I wouldn't take such a risk unless the offer is so good that cashing out will cover the amount I paid for the tickets. The amount he is offering shouldn't be much greater than the cash-out sum.

Another thing I would definitely ask is why is he selling to me instead of cashing out himself?  

Maybe he wants to sell the game for more than the cash-out sum. It would have been easier to cash out, but it seems he wants more money.  Another question is why he is losing faith in the game and wants someone else to take the risk.

[shawonngp]

Parlay betting is very risky. A 10-leg parlay with 6 games winning, still 4 games left to win, the chances of winning in this parlay are very low, because even if you lose 1 of the remaining 4 games, all will be lost. Parlay Betting I won 3 of the 4 bets and lost the remaining 1, so if there is no luck here, you can't win. Why does your friend want to sell games to you? If he were sure he could win in this parlay, he wouldn't offer to sell to you. If I were in that situation, I would never buy this game, because only 6 wins out of 10 bets, winning 4 more is almost uncertain, even if I win 9, I will have to lose in these parlay games. So I wouldn’t let it pass.

[Yorubek]

I don’t know if anyone has been in a tough situation like this before. A situation where someone offers to sell a parlay game that’s already halfway through.
Here’s what really happened, a friend of mine offered to sell a 10 leg parlay bet which is already halfway done, 6 games are already green with a pretty good cashout option and 4 games left to clear the slip. So he offered to sell the game to me, added an extra $50 to the cashout amount.

If the game eventually pulls off, I’ll be making more than 5x of what I bought it, but it’s a really tough decision to make because there’s really no guarantee that it’s gonna end in a win.
What would you do if you were in my shoes, Buy or Pass?

I think it is not right to make decisions based on greed. You might think that out of 10 matches, six have already gone according to plan, but there is no guarantee that the results of the remaining four matches will be as expected. Therefore, it would not be reasonable to bet on excessive risk in the hope of making more money. Therefore, it is wise to control your greed and bet.

If I were you, I would never take the extra risk of parlay betting, I would definitely bet on a single bet within my means so that if I lose one bet, I can rely on the other bet, which will give me more enjoy and excitement. Winning through gambling depends on the luck of the gambler as well as research, so I think it might be better to bet on a single bet than a parlay bet.

[_act_]

Four games are still too much to risk. There are high chances that one or two games might cut the parlay. I wouldn't take such a risk unless the offer is so good that cashing out will cover the amount I paid for the tickets. The amount he is offering shouldn't be much greater than the cash-out sum.

I risk just $10 or less on gambling every week. If it is $120, that is 12 time more than the amount of money that I can risk weekly. I also can not go for the bet. I will prefer to continue to bet the way that I am betting.

Why did the person not borrow the $70 and pay back the $70 after winning the money? I am suspecting something, but there may be nothing. I can not go for it.

[AmaGold70]

I have seen many individuals selling their bets to other gamblers who are willing to buy them, but I look at it as being very risky because if the person selling the game to you is very of such game becoming successful, he wouldn't sell it to anyone, but they sell their bet because they are very unsure if that parlay will be very successful. Buying a parlay that is still progressing is at your own risk because personally, I wouldn't advice any gambler to do such thing, and the possibility of such bet being successful is not their , it may fail or become successful, and if eventually such bet fails, it is very difficult to ask for refund from the gambler that sold such parlay to you.

[BALIK]

What would you do if you were in my shoes, Buy or Pass?

I would have passed. Unless I could go directly to account and verify those remaining 4 legs, odds and cashout value ​​with my own eyes. Actually, buying other peoples half done gamble based solely on faith is not betting. It is taking their risk, without even knowing what actually the real chances of remaining matches are.

Needless to say, excitement about parlays is natural, but the sunk cost or already 6/10 green feeling make many people make decisions based on emotion rather than reason. If you want to bet yourself, I think it's more transparent and safer to make a new parlay based on your own analysis, than to buy your friend's half-done risk.

[Ojima-ojo]

I don’t know if anyone has been in a tough situation like this before. A situation where someone offers to sell a parlay game that’s already halfway through.
Here’s what really happened, a friend of mine offered to sell a 10 leg parlay bet which is already halfway done, 6 games are already green with a pretty good cashout option and 4 games left to clear the slip. So he offered to sell the game to me, added an extra $50 to the cashout amount.

If the game eventually pulls off, I’ll be making more than 5x of what I bought it, but it’s a really tough decision to make because there’s really no guarantee that it’s gonna end in a win.
What would you do if you were in my shoes, Buy or Pass?

This will be a suicide attempt, remember avoid anything that will place financial pressure on your bet, if the slip is that promising why is he selling it to you, as gambler's we must not allow our risk to come from third party even we are gambling and we understand the risk.


The 4 remaining leg could become the dead trap in this deal, and if you ask me personally after doing investigations on the remaining game unplayed, I will not offer anything more than 5% above the available cash out.

[Pi-network314159]

Buying such game is at your own risk, many people who bought that type of running parlay game have regretted, and the risk of losing is much. Let's say you bought a running parlay game for $50 or $100 hoping to win it all at total of $500 but instead of winning you lose the money used to buy the parlay, it will be very very problematic to take that risk. I was tempted to buy such game some time ago but I refuse it because I was not ready to lose a huge amount.

[Itz-prisigold]

Buying such game is at your own risk, many people who bought that type of running parlay game have regretted, and the risk of losing is much. Let's say you bought a running parlay game for $50 or $100 hoping to win it all at total of $500 but instead of winning you lose the money used to buy the parlay, it will be very very problematic to take that risk. I was tempted to buy such game some time ago but I refuse it because I was not ready to lose a huge amount.

I think I will just buy the ticket and allow luck do its thing. Because I don't see any huge difference between buying a running parlay game and booking a new ticket by myself from scratch. There is probability that the games I predict myself might still lose because there is not guarantee in gambling. So I think I will just try my luck, rather than regret it later if the parlay game actually wins.

If I actually have the spare money that I just want to gamble away, and I come across a parlay game with some interesting good returns, then I'll probably try it out. If the game wins, that is just my luck but if the game still lose, then I walk away because I knew from the start that I was taking a risk that was not guaranteed.

[Joeboy]

...

It looks very attractive and tempting that's for sure but then there is no actual certainty that those remaining games will click after you make purchasement and this is what you should actually consider before going in to buy.. Gambling has high level of uncertainty especially Parlay since Parlay would require all the legs to be in green before you get a payout...And so, In this case if I were in your shoe, I would check my pocket and see if buying the slip would hurt me more when losses occur.. If I would get hurt then that slip isn't worth me taking the risk, so I would just pass..

[Su-asa]

Gamble is all about luck, which I believe everyone of us already knows; even those who literally think that they are very smart already know this. Before then, I wouldn't have believed that one day I would pay for a parlay, but here it did happen, and everything was a success because of luck. Actually, everything felt entertaining because I had to report to the guy about the success of the game. After all, he's my friend, and we all laughed about it. Well, even though I will be trying such things anyway in the future, I will make sure to watch carefully so that I don't regret my actions. My reasons for doing that are that I like trying new things, and luckily I didn't regret it, even though I haven't bought any games from anyone.

You were lucky then, but some people will think it's because you bet on the parlay, you won the game forgetting that gambling involves luck and there is every possibility that you may not get same opportunity again. But, it's good to keep your emotions and your budget balanced, that will allow you to continue seeing the game as a form of entertainment or a way to have fun. Playing this game with the mindset that it is not something to depend on, can help protect you from problems and it would be wiser and safer for gamblers adhere to this approach.

Even though most of the time I might want to gamble for profits, it doesn't change the fact that 80% of the time I gamble is basically for entertainment purposes (no feelings attached), which is why I can only risk what I can afford to lose at that moment. Such risk shouldn't always be taken because the chances of winning in gambling are very slim. Imagine I lost the bet the day I bought the game from my friend; it would have been a silly loss, which is why I bought it with what I could afford. Well, it sounds crazy, but there are many other things people normally do out there that are nothing to them because it's their money, and they are not addicted to gambling.

[promise444c5]

Do you want to risk it? If you have what you can overlook then risk it but you should definitely consider reviewing the remaining games before thinking it’s a good deal… If it’s so good then he’s probably going to risk it aswell but since he’s trying to sell it then he also has a high doubt it’s going to get him some profits without the any of those 4 ruining the entire bet.

This part looks confusing though :
“ So he offered to sell the game to me, added an extra $50 to the cashout amount.” what exactly do you mean by the extra $50?

[bitbollo]

LOL NO. I would pass. ... it's not the same as a cashout option offered by a casino*...
Even if the parlay comes from a good gambler, even if it could be possible this is a chance for a win, parlay includes multiple (and directly linked) odds...
It's not matter of 90% or 60% like OP suggested.
You can also achieve a 99% of the events but only one can create a disaster in your gameplay.

*"cashout option". It would be different for a casino to pay out a small amount since they know you can "balance" and always have a surewin on your bet .

[Fortify]

I don’t know if anyone has been in a tough situation like this before. A situation where someone offers to sell a parlay game that’s already halfway through.
Here’s what really happened, a friend of mine offered to sell a 10 leg parlay bet which is already halfway done, 6 games are already green with a pretty good cashout option and 4 games left to clear the slip. So he offered to sell the game to me, added an extra $50 to the cashout amount.

If the game eventually pulls off, I’ll be making more than 5x of what I bought it, but it’s a really tough decision to make because there’s really no guarantee that it’s gonna end in a win.
What would you do if you were in my shoes, Buy or Pass?

I've read an article in the past that stated parlay/multi bets are the most profitable type of bets for bookmakers. I suspect that there are two major reasons for this, the first one is that merging the bets does not give the advantage that you might expect from it, if you have two bets at 1.5x you won't necessarily get a bet at 3x like you might expect, but maybe 2.95x. On top of that, people are naturally bad at making predictions (at least in comparison to the actual data crunching and analysis done by odds providers) but also very "good" at overestimating their abilities. This is a dangerous combination and leads to a lot of bad decisions, which is only amplified when you combine lots of bets together, because even if you pick 4 out of 5 correctly it only takes the last one to wipe you out. There have been some people who have taken a strategy of making massive parlay bets with very smaller amounts like half a dollar, with 20+ bets and they've actually walked away with a lot of money on the infinitely rare occasion that all legs come through. It's worth remembering that in such situations bookmakers can sometimes try to find ways out of paying based on technicalities or try to void the bet using other methods.

[Gozie51]

If the game eventually pulls off, I’ll be making more than 5x of what I bought it, but it’s a really tough decision to make because there’s really no guarantee that it’s gonna end in a win.
What would you do if you were in my shoes, Buy or Pass?

I will pass. I won't be looking at what I'm likely to gain if the game wins but what I will be considering is the height of the risk that I will care for by buying it. For example, for him to have a cash out, it means he has profitted at an extent because the cash out is more likely to be higher than his staking money. This means that he is selling even above the staking money whose cash out amount should be higher than especially with only 4 games remaining out of 10 games.

Moreso, to price his remaining legs of parley with extra $50 is a deal breaker. He should rather wait till the end of the slip to know his fate or cash out his already made profit.

However, it is not strange that some gamblers also take the risk of buying bets at the cash out level. They end up winning or losing the bet.