why are more goals scored in the final minutes? can we take advantage?

[tread93]

while looking at statistics for various leagues, i came across the distribution of goals scored by minute in la liga last season. as i examined the data, i would have considered it normal for more goals to be scored in the final minutes, but i didn’t expect the difference to be that significant.

https://statsultra.com/when-are-most-goals-scored-football/



the minutes shown here as 41-50 and 81-90 include stoppage time, but even when we calculate the average, we still see that significantly more goals are scored in the final minutes compared to the game as a whole.

in some matches, when placing live bets, there are bets where you predict the period in which the next goal will be scored. do you think this can be exploited in terms of betting?

I am not sure if it can exploited really but just increasing your odds of winning especially in parlays I feel like you could say one of the players on this team will score in the final minutes and maybe that could be a crazy leg to the parley that hit and you win a bunch. It could happen!

[ralle14]

It could be worth experimenting to see if it works, but for me i'd rather not blindly live bet the totals in the last ten minutes with this information alone. Those bigger percentages could come from the top or mid teams, and to me there's more to it than what we see on paper.

On the other hand, it's great for those who regularly pre-live bet on goal-related markets. It gives them one more reason not to cash out until the end.

[Tungbulu]

You are very correct, sometimes so many things can change in the final game because definitely fatigue begin kicking and club become more serious to get a good results so many teams has their pattern of play truly some club are very defensive at the starting of the game when a team badly needed a goal that can make those remaining minute to be degenerous some of club feel so reluctant that can they can get a goal at anytime but football has a way of surprising people.

And I’ve observed that this often happens to teams who are just some minutes away from losing, the game would soon be over and the scoreboard is not in their favor, either they’re losing the game or the game is in a draw. If it’s in a draw, both teams would likely be pushing as hard as they can to see if they can break the ties, and if they’re already losing, the winning team may have already switched to a defensive game, while the losing one may be struggling and putting in their best to make sure they literally break or infiltrate their defenses and get that goal that would change the course of the game.

[Julien_Olynpic]

It's likely that this can't be used in general, just as publicly available statistics can't be used in most cases for very simple reasons: the bookmaker knows this and factors it into their odds. If a bookmaker bets on "will at least one team score in the last 10 minutes?" the odds will likely be low. However, each specific event needs to be examined, as it may differ from the general assumptions.

[abaeze]

in some matches, when placing live bets, there are bets where you predict the period in which the next goal will be scored. do you think this can be exploited in terms of betting?

When neither team can score a goal even towards the end of the game, there is actually a lot of tendency for both teams to make mistakes and the teams play more aggressively because of this mistake, which is why everyone is desperate to score a goal and in the end, this is why goals are scored a few seconds before the whistle blows at the very end. This is not only in league games but also in this World Cup, especially in the last 10 minutes of the game, Argentina's attack and scoring goals have been noticed. However, this is not a special issue for gamblers because everyone who bets on this is aware that the profit and loss have to be calculated after the referee blows the final whistle.

[Marykeller]

in some matches, when placing live bets, there are bets where you predict the period in which the next goal will be scored. do you think this can be exploited in terms of betting?

It can, but how sure are you that either team will score a goal before second-half extra time elapses?  I have seen matches where, with the tension, no goal was scored before the end of the second half. You can go ahead and pick such a game, only to be left disappointed. I have seen it happen many times; for gamblers praying for just one goal to win their bet, that's when it will be difficult for those teams you believe will score in the late minutes of matches

[eisen33]

while looking at statistics for various leagues, i came across the distribution of goals scored by minute in la liga last season. as i examined the data, i would have considered it normal for more goals to be scored in the final minutes, but i didn’t expect the difference to be that significant.

https://statsultra.com/when-are-most-goals-scored-football/



the minutes shown here as 41-50 and 81-90 include stoppage time, but even when we calculate the average, we still see that significantly more goals are scored in the final minutes compared to the game as a whole.

in some matches, when placing live bets, there are bets where you predict the period in which the next goal will be scored. do you think this can be exploited in terms of betting?

As for the first halves, I've never really paid attention to whether a lot of goals are scored toward the end of the half. I actually think it's the opposite, that most goals are scored either around the middle of the half or closer to the beginning, I mean from the 10th minute.

As for the end of the match, then yes I think quite a few goals are scored late because when the result becomes particularly important, teams tend to become more active toward the end. But if I'm betting on a goal to be scored during a match, I usually place the bet around the 70th minute, so the teams still have enough time to score. I don't bet after the 80th minute because, although the odds are higher, it's much riskier.

[BitBakerr1]

A friend of mine said, you won’t know how difficult it is to win bet with the particular strategy you are thinking in your head until you start using the strategy yourself.
Gamblers usually think and bring out a lot of strategy that will work for them in gambling, but it usually fail.

Do you know how many strategy I have taught about that I can use to win bet regularly but it failed, i’m not saying that your own is going to fear, but what you’re going to understand is that what you are thinking in your head may be very wonderful until you try it out.

The strategy that you are talking about is going to be very difficult, you may think that it is very wonderful and good to use it to win regularly, but you may be shocked at what will happen.

[Olatundespo]

in some matches, when placing live bets, there are bets where you predict the period in which the next goal will be scored. do you think this can be exploited in terms of betting?

When neither team can score a goal even towards the end of the game, there is actually a lot of tendency for both teams to make mistakes and the teams play more aggressively because of this mistake, which is why everyone is desperate to score a goal and in the end, this is why goals are scored a few seconds before the whistle blows at the very end. This is not only in league games but also in this World Cup, especially in the last 10 minutes of the game, Argentina's attack and scoring goals have been noticed. However, this is not a special issue for gamblers because everyone who bets on this is aware that the profit and loss have to be calculated after the referee blows the final whistle.

Unable to score within the allotted time or with the game ending in a draw, both teams are desperate to send the ball into the opponent's net, but the tactics of the two teams are often similar, making it difficult to score. They try to build a strong defense like a wall, but the team that can score by bypassing that defense wins. In many matches, some gamblers favor the weaker team because the more they can risk, the more money they can win, even though there is a 99% chance of losing. Argentina performed incredibly well in some matches of the World Cup and kept the results in their favor and were a relief for the gamblers, but the result of the final match did not rescue the gamblers. The gamblers lost a huge amount of funds.

[KiaKia]

This is incomplete and not enough to make decisions on, because we are talking about goals that's been scored in the final minutes, what we aren't looking into is how many matches has been played where no goals was scored in that same last minutes.

I can't even count how many matches like that where draw is how they would end it, there are also some that ended with 1-0 that was scored in the first half of the game, likewise the second half too.

I wouldn't place any bets because of this data, betting on matches is more complicated than what you are saying here.

[ruykeri]

The issue of last minute goals can be observed in the matches of national teams besides the club league. Even in the last FIFA World Cup match and some teams scored goals after the last 75 minutes. In case of Argentina, I may have seen this several times who came back after half time. The reason for this is that I think there is extra pressure on the players towards the end, where if a team is behind by 1 or 2 goals by leading team , then naturally they start attacking aggressively and the opponent's defense becomes weak. In addition, when they substitute one or two players towards the end, their stamina and speed are good enough, so the possibility of scoring goals increases, which makes the opponent feel extra pressure. As a result, in most  goals are seen more in the last 10-20 minutes. Then, due to less time, there is no opportunity to play in balance mode. If you attack more, the possibility of scoring goals increases, as well as the opponent counter attack can score goals. But I think it is a bit risky to include this in betting. Because there is no possibility that all matches will be the same. Although the 18% statistics are high, there are other statistics close to it where goals scored between 40 and 50 minutes are also more than 12%. And I don't think it's logical to make a betting decision based on the statistics of only the last season.

[TedMosby]

[...]
in some matches, when placing live bets, there are bets where you predict the period in which the next goal will be scored. do you think this can be exploited in terms of betting?

Yeah, the number is significant when you compare it to each interval, but if you place a bet that a goal will be scored in the interval of 80-90 minutes, it means your chance to lose is 100% - 18.8% = 81.2%. Which is even worse than 1 win in 5 bets. Even if you place a live bet starting in the second half, it doesn't mean the chance is higher too. It's still the same chance.

[...]
the minutes shown here as 41-50 and 81-90 include stoppage time, but even when we calculate the average, we still see that significantly more goals are scored in the final minutes compared to the game as a whole.
[...]

This is also the answer to your question, because including stoppage time means these specific intervals are longer than the other intervals. But yes, the final minutes still have way more goals scored. This can be caused by players' stamina getting lower -> lower level of focus -> more frequent individual mistakes -> more goals. Not to mention, player substitutions usually happen in the second half, especially around 60-70 minutes. The correct substitution can change the game a lot.

[iv4n]

while looking at statistics for various leagues, i came across the distribution of goals scored by minute in la liga last season. as i examined the data, i would have considered it normal for more goals to be scored in the final minutes, but i didn’t expect the difference to be that significant.

That's the thing with statistics... stats show the past, not the future. And while it can happen that history repeats itself, most of the time the game doesn't care about the past... the ball is round.

do you think this can be exploited in terms of betting?

Well, feel free to try it/test it, and don't forget to share your results with us. I guess some people tried it, but you will do it your way, and maybe your way will be better... that's the thing with gambling, you can't know if you don't give it a try. Good luck.

[Tungbulu]

It's likely that this can't be used in general, just as publicly available statistics can't be used in most cases for very simple reasons: the bookmaker knows this and factors it into their odds. If a bookmaker bets on "will at least one team score in the last 10 minutes?" the odds will likely be low. However, each specific event needs to be examined, as it may differ from the general assumptions.

This last minute goals has really messed up a lot of perfect bets, I believe I’m not the only one who have also experienced this. Sometimes I do examine a game to see if there’s actually a chance for the teams to score in the last minutes of the game, because sometimes I like to bet on live games, and if I eventually based on my observations and analysis feel that a goal may not come then I’ll take the odd, although such games doesn’t usually have that much big odds, but picking two or three of such games may give you a great odd, but that’s usually where the problem usually comes from.

[Achalugo BTC]

A friend of mine said, you won’t know how difficult it is to win bet with the particular strategy you are thinking in your head until you start using the strategy yourself.
Gamblers usually think and bring out a lot of strategy that will work for them in gambling, but it usually fail.

Do you know how many strategy I have taught about that I can use to win bet regularly but it failed, i’m not saying that your own is going to fear, but what you’re going to understand is that what you are thinking in your head may be very wonderful until you try it out.

The strategy that you are talking about is going to be very difficult, you may think that it is very wonderful and good to use it to win regularly, but you may be shocked at what will happen.

I understand what you are saying, but the truth is that most of the people who gamble want to learn the hard way before applying the right principles. Yes, in their heads, they may be think of the best way to win their bets, but they are forgetting that they are not in control of the house edge, which doesn't operate according to how they expect the game to be played. So, it's best for them to go bet only what they can comfortably afford to let go without feeling the need to chase their losses.

[Juicyhome]

The bookies that set the odds know all these, they use it to set odds that the bettors can not use to to make money from them unless the bettor is only lucky, but the luck which is for a short period of time and not long period of time.

Bookiers might have the date to set the odds, they will never predict the outcome just like the a gambler,  both bookiers and bettors hope on hope for their predictions,  goals are more in second half, if you're use to playing sport betting,  most time if tour not patient enough the moment you cashout that's when the needed goal will come, in gambling never panic wait till the final whistle,  in die minutes a team can still score goals, because of weakness of players.

[swogerino]

I don't agree that much with these statistics as they are not always correct. In fact most games in the top 5 major leagues of Europe I have not seen such pattern happened a lot of times, in fact strong games for example in Premier League they end up with a single goal in somewhat the first minutes of the first half and teams have a hard time from there on. I am not saying it happens always like this but I am sure those statistics are taken into consideration with all leagues of football which does not show the reality of a strong league and strong football at all. Also in another strong league in Italy usually teams have difficulties scoring goals and most of the goals do not happen in the last 10 minutes of the games.

In Premier League they took only the last two seasons 2023/24-2024/25 which of course cannot be generalized for all the happenings there, again strong games are different and most probably these stats are for low standing teams in the Premier League.

[ejikeme24]

You are very correct, sometimes so many things can change in the final game because definitely fatigue begin kicking and club become more serious to get a good results so many teams has their pattern of play truly some club are very defensive at the starting of the game when a team badly needed a goal that can make those remaining minute to be degenerous some of club feel so reluctant that can they can get a goal at anytime but football has a way of surprising people.

And I’ve observed that this often happens to teams who are just some minutes away from losing, the game would soon be over and the scoreboard is not in their favor, either they’re losing the game or the game is in a draw. If it’s in a draw, both teams would likely be pushing as hard as they can to see if they can break the ties, and if they’re already losing, the winning team may have already switched to a defensive game, while the losing one may be struggling and putting in their best to make sure they literally break or infiltrate their defenses and get that goal that would change the course of the game.

Your observation is true, and of course it's only when a team is at the verge of Lossing or drawing the match that they usually put more pressure just to ensure that they achieve something better. I have watched so many matches and I discovered that during the first half of the game some  teams tend to relent I mean, they don't perform as expected not until the second half and some don't even put effort from the start not until they get to 75-80th minutes before they can now pull out their best performance especially when the match is still in draw, draw. or the opponent is leading with 1 goals, at that point they will be struggling to make an equalizer and sometimes it works while sometimes it will just end like that.

[qwertyup23]

interesting argument...
but it can't be exploited in most of the cases since bookmakers already have the same data, and here the evidence is pretty big.
Plus this is a common dynamic in a socce match: in the last minutes the players are tired. there is no chance to substitions and most of teams are not able to keep the squad properly placed.

Not to mention, the adrenaline that pushes more players to score and goal on the final minutes are there. Players would risk everything just to get that goal/win in order to exert and exhaust all possible energy. I just think that with this kind of data, there would inevitably be some investigation but the very fact is none means nothing is suspicious.

I also do agree with your argument- people are more exhausted thereby the defense won't be there. Along with some players who do have that last bit of energy to exhaust, expect some numbers to pile-up in the scoring system during the last minutes of the game.

[Swordsoffreedom]

in some matches, when placing live bets, there are bets where you predict the period in which the next goal will be scored. do you think this can be exploited in terms of betting?

If I were you, I wouldn't make any blind betting strategy thinking that there will be more goal in 81-90th minute. Instead, you should look at baseline hazard. For example, you should look at 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1 separately. You should also look at favorite & underdog separately. You should also look at red card and substitution condition. I actually do not place my bet without comparing the actual goal probability with market-implied probability.

Another thing is it will not be same exposure as 10 minute if stoppage time enters 81 to 90 interval then. So, you will have denominator problem if you directly compare minute by minute probability with raw goal percentage. I think it is better to use goal hazard per actual minute or exposure.