why are more goals scored in the final minutes? can we take advantage?

[hakan2217]

Even though I don't think we could benefit from it, it is a good topic to reflect on.

There are many possible answers to the question "Why?" Players get tired in the final minutes. Fresh substitutes have entered the game. The team that is trailing pushes harder to score, and this effort leaves them more exposed at the back. Then there is stoppage time...

So if we are watching the game live and saw a big long time injury or something. So we can assume +plus time ganna be much longer so easirer to one more goal or card or corner whatever you want to bet.

But ultimately, bookmakers know what we know—and even a great deal more that we don't—and they set their odds accordingly.

[SuperBitMan]

There are msny reason why there are more goal at the end. Teams behind take more risk. And teams ahead defend deeper. As a result, scoring probability changes itself according to the scoreline and game state.

So my answer would be, yes. This pattern is a hypothesis worth testing for betting. But you need to backtest with historical data and look at ROI and CLV and sample size against closing or live odd to prove edge. that will tell us if we just re-pricing football's well-known late goal tendency or not.

The players usually have hope till the last minute, and everything is possible even at a dime minute. So they usually take advantage and shoot a shot. When the time is reaching the exhausting time players usually become more serious to protect other opponents from taking advantage of their weakness. More energy usually lies in the final minute, the loosing team will be willing to take their chances while the winning teams will be fighting for it opposite. Football is not as easy as it seems to be, but despite the challenges that arise the players still risk their lives and give their all, just to make their fans happy.

In football, the last minute is the most dangerous time and anything can happen at that minute. Everybody usually put more effort to make a change in the last minute and the last-minute goals is usually what makes football much more enjoyable and exciting.
I strongly believe that anything can happen at the last minute of a football match and this is one of the reasons I don’t like cashing out my bet I always allow the match to end, if I lose fine.

Talking about footballers risking their self to make us happy. You should also understand that they are paying them very good amount of money and this is one of the reasons why they are putting their best to make sure that we continue to enjoy football.

[sotelorene]

The players usually have hope till the last minute, and everything is possible even at a dime minute. So they usually take advantage and shoot a shot. When the time is reaching the exhausting time players usually become more serious to protect other opponents from taking advantage of their weakness. More energy usually lies in the final minute, the loosing team will be willing to take their chances while the winning teams will be fighting for it opposite. Football is not as easy as it seems to be, but despite the challenges that arise the players still risk their lives and give their all, just to make their fans happy.

I agree with you and in addition to this, the reason why a losing team will be willing to come out and play it's because at that moment they have nothing to lose or gain anymore because whether they come out to play or not they will still lose so that is why they always pull out to play but this is not always same thing when a big team is losing to an under dog because even when they are losing they will be pressing hard and dominating. I will use Paris Saint Germain as an example just their previous match they were losing against their opponent and could you imagine they used the last 5-6 minutes of the game and scored 2 goals i mean it was really crazy.

[Achalugo BTC]

I forgot to mention the risk of getting addicted, there's no way someone would do that and won't get addicted, the first thing that would attract addiction is chasing lose. Then it would also result to using important money to gamble just to keep up on every game weekly. Any strategy that would expose someone to addiction is never a good one and should be avoided and I'll advise that people shouldn't give it a trail cause it would attract more lose than wins.

The advice you highlighted is absolutely right, anything that can make one addicted to gambling, will also deprive them of their peace and this can affect their relationships. Sometimes, in life, making some decisions despite one's emotions isn't that they will miss their chance to win big, but to remain happy and preserve their relationships and trust others have in them. This is why, anyone who engages in gambling should be ready to accept whatever the result may be. That way, they won't get addicted or feel the urge to chase their losses.

[Alex077]

There are msny reason why there are more goal at the end. Teams behind take more risk. And teams ahead defend deeper. As a result, scoring probability changes itself according to the scoreline and game state...

The players usually have hope till the last minute, and everything is possible even at a dime minute. So they usually take advantage and shoot a shot. When the time is reaching the exhausting time players usually become more serious to protect other opponents from taking advantage of their weakness...

Yeah, the losing team basically has nothing left to lose, so they usually push forward with more players, take more risks, and leave more open space at the back.

But from a betting point of view, it’s important to understand that bookmakers are well aware of this pattern and usually already factor it into the odds for a late goal. So the simple fact that more goals are scored toward the end of matches isn’t enough to make a profitable strategy.

Also, a lot depends on the specific match.  So I’d focus more on the score, shot statistics, how much pressure the teams are putting on, red cards, and how important the result is for both sides rather than simply looking at what minute of the match it is.

[hedgeh0g]

while looking at statistics for various leagues, i came across the distribution of goals scored by minute in la liga last season. as i examined the data, i would have considered it normal for more goals to be scored in the final minutes, but i didn’t expect the difference to be that significant.

the minutes shown here as 41-50 and 81-90 include stoppage time, but even when we calculate the average, we still see that significantly more goals are scored in the final minutes compared to the game as a whole.

in some matches, when placing live bets, there are bets where you predict the period in which the next goal will be scored. do you think this can be exploited in terms of betting?

Personally, I didn’t immediately see any way to use this to improve betting predictions, but the statistics are still very interesting. And I think it’s due to the fact that teams become bolder towards the end of the match, they feel somewhat more relaxed in their actions, and they abandon the caution that was characteristic of the first minutes of the match. And that’s amusing. Well, perhaps this knowledge can be used if you can place bets on a match during the game, and then you can try to roughly calculate how many more goals, according to probability theory, the teams might try to score against each other.

[DanWalker]

in some matches, when placing live bets, there are bets where you predict the period in which the next goal will be scored. do you think this can be exploited in terms of betting?

I don't think it's as simple as it sound. In-play market are generally quite efficient but there are certain moment when there is temporary mispricing that we can exploit. For example, right after  first goal, or few second to minute after red card.

But more goal in last minute, such basic pattern is so well known that bookmaker already build it into odd of their time of next goal or Minute Betting market. So just betting on this statistical base rate won't give you or me much of an edge, because they have more data than we do.

In fact, live betting is high-risk, so anyone who want to test this theory should do so with small stake and with caution.

[Donk1]

Well I think there isn't much to exploit here it's just a normal scenario that deals with reasoning. First bookies are always observing, and for that they often know that as time goes, players get tired and the field becomes immensely tense because the teams start panicking late in the game..

so they end up lowering the payout on late goals just because it often happens. It's easy to say when it comes to betting, the system is always steps ahead of the way gamblers think. If you even end up placing a bet, you would just be taking a lower reward for a pattern that is already obvious... that's all........

[BitBakerr1]

I forgot to mention the risk of getting addicted, there's no way someone would do that and won't get addicted, the first thing that would attract addiction is chasing lose. Then it would also result to using important money to gamble just to keep up on every game weekly. Any strategy that would expose someone to addiction is never a good one and should be avoided and I'll advise that people shouldn't give it a trail cause it would attract more lose than wins.

The advice you highlighted is absolutely right, anything that can make one addicted to gambling, will also deprive them of their peace and this can affect their relationships. Sometimes, in life, making some decisions despite one's emotions isn't that they will miss their chance to win big, but to remain happy and preserve their relationships and trust others have in them. This is why, anyone who engages in gambling should be ready to accept whatever the result may be. That way, they won't get addicted or feel the urge to chase their losses.

Addiction in gambling comes as a result of trying to become rich or wealthy through gambling and again trying to get all the money that you have lost in gambling.
I really don’t know why some people believe they can become rich or wealthy through gambling, if you are thinking and believing to become rich true gambling, you will eventually get poor because gambling is going to dry you financially and make you useless, I know many people that gambling has turned to hopeless people because they believe and wanted to use gambling to become rich and it never happened.

People should learn to know when to stop gambling and focus on other things, if you are not gambling to have fun, then I don’t think you should be gambling.

[KTChampions]

I think increased percentage of goal on last minute of period or game is cause by fatigue. After almost whole period of playing, by the end players got tired and tend to do mistakes. Some of them dont fight till end as they think period or game is over. They think more about rest than about result. As a result they let opponent play more active and score. Those who are losing use all-or-nothing on last minutes, they had nothing to lose, but winners with last strength try to hold the score.

I think it's less about fatigue and more about the risk the losing team takes - in the end, either the one taking the risk scores or concede. For example, yesterday, even in a routine game between Cagliari and Inter, in the fifth minute of added time (there were five minutes in total), Cagliari took a corner (the score was 0-1 in Inter's favor). And even the Cagliari goalkeeper came into Inter's penalty area to try to make a comeback, it didn't work out, but as you understand, when a goalkeeper is in the opponent's penalty area, the likelihood that his team will concede a goal increases greatly.

[LUCKMCFLY]

This is precisely what Real Madrid did in Ancelotti's first season. Personally, I didn't like it because it made me incredibly nervous. However, it was good in one aspect: the players were prepared so that at the end of the match their physical condition allowed them to give their all. And that was perhaps what threw the opposing team off, because they were already tired.

Furthermore, there's the added adrenaline rush that can make all the difference the "anything is possible" or "it ain't over till it's over" mentality. It's not bad because there's hope and possibility, but so far I haven't seen a team currently applying such a strategy.

[Proty]

I forgot to mention the risk of getting addicted, there's no way someone would do that and won't get addicted, the first thing that would attract addiction is chasing lose. Then it would also result to using important money to gamble just to keep up on every game weekly. Any strategy that would expose someone to addiction is never a good one and should be avoided and I'll advise that people shouldn't give it a trail cause it would attract more lose than wins.

The advice you highlighted is absolutely right, anything that can make one addicted to gambling, will also deprive them of their peace and this can affect their relationships. Sometimes, in life, making some decisions despite one's emotions isn't that they will miss their chance to win big, but to remain happy and preserve their relationships and trust others have in them. This is why, anyone who engages in gambling should be ready to accept whatever the result may be. That way, they won't get addicted or feel the urge to chase their losses.

Addiction in gambling comes as a result of trying to become rich or wealthy through gambling and again trying to get all the money that you have lost in gambling.
I really don’t know why some people believe they can become rich or wealthy through gambling, if you are thinking and believing to become rich true gambling, you will eventually get poor because gambling is going to dry you financially and make you useless, I know many people that gambling has turned to hopeless people because they believe and wanted to use gambling to become rich and it never happened.

People should learn to know when to stop gambling and focus on other things, if you are not gambling to have fun, then I don’t think you should be gambling.

The main challenge is when gamblers feel that there next game is going to be a win. Immediately they happened to be on a losing streak, they will start chasing after losses with the intention of winning back what they have lost. Under such circumstances they lose control of the situation.

Gambler should never see gambling as means of making money or generating wealth. There are other ways people can make money or build wealth instead of gambling, they can either learn a skill or start up a small business. A gambler should be able to know when they are to stop gambling, this will help them not to chase after losses.

[YOSHIE]

why are more goals scored in the final minutes? can we take advantage

I myself am not sure whether my answer is correct or not, it is very likely that players can be seen physically experiencing fatigue, as well as the impact of replacing players, Attack tactics that have loopholes cause the opponent to be tired, extra time can also trigger goals in the last minute.

I think so, the reason for scoring goals is in the last minute, but we often see football matches in the last minute, many players experience decreased stamina and no longer concentrate, this could also be the cause, Maybe there are many other reasons that allow goals to be scored at the end of a football match.

[Orpichukwu]

You are free to adopt any strategy that works for you in sports betting and other areas. Towards the end of the game, players are desperate, tired, and prone to errors, which might result in more goals. When you think you have found an exploit route in gambling, it might end up becoming inconsistent. 

Inconsistent is out of the way here; it’s a thing that will turn out to be the result, no matter the new pattern we think we have discovered in sports betting. In some cases we will experience few wins, which is associated with luck, and that will convince us we have got it all right until we start putting too much confidence in it, the more bet we place the more the number of loses will increase.

The report has data from the EPL for two seasons. This might be a coincidence for those two seasons. Comparing it with other leagues and seasons would give a clearer picture.

If someone wants to experiment on something, they can first focus it on one league, maybe since there is already a repeated pattern in the EPL for the past two seasons, he can use that same data to test it in this new season and see how it turns out instead of going as far as comparing the data from other leagues.

[uneng]

why are more goals scored in the final minutes? can we take advantage

I myself am not sure whether my answer is correct or not, it is very likely that players can be seen physically experiencing fatigue, as well as the impact of replacing players, Attack tactics that have loopholes cause the opponent to be tired, extra time can also trigger goals in the last minute.

I think so, the reason for scoring goals is in the last minute, but we often see football matches in the last minute, many players experience decreased stamina and no longer concentrate, this could also be the cause, Maybe there are many other reasons that allow goals to be scored at the end of a football match.

You are right. On the final minutes of the match, players are tired and their remaining stamina is low. Moreover, there is a lot of pressure over players to succeed, what increases their levels of anxiety which may end resulting in mistakes by the defensive lines, while the attackers take advantage of that.

It's usually the losing team which puts more offensive pressure in the end of the game, while the defensive team can benefit itself by countering attacking and also scoring goals on the final moments.

The final minutes represent the most intense moments of a soccer match.

[Agbamoni]

I forgot to mention the risk of getting addicted, there's no way someone would do that and won't get addicted, the first thing that would attract addiction is chasing lose. Then it would also result to using important money to gamble just to keep up on every game weekly. Any strategy that would expose someone to addiction is never a good one and should be avoided and I'll advise that people shouldn't give it a trail cause it would attract more lose than wins.

The advice you highlighted is absolutely right, anything that can make one addicted to gambling, will also deprive them of their peace and this can affect their relationships. Sometimes, in life, making some decisions despite one's emotions isn't that they will miss their chance to win big, but to remain happy and preserve their relationships and trust others have in them. This is why, anyone who engages in gambling should be ready to accept whatever the result may be. That way, they won't get addicted or feel the urge to chase their losses.

I can't stop gambling because of my relationship with my partner or my children. Gambling is a personal decision. What I can do is not get addicted to gambling. Before I get into a serious relationship with someone, I will let the person know that I am into gambling. The relationship won't work if the person doesn't agree to my gambling habit. It is better that way, rather than promising the person that you are not a gambler, only to be caught gambling after the relationship has become stronger.

[Myleschetty]

do you think this can be exploited in terms of betting?

Naturally, this can be taken advantage of when it comes to football betting because, in theory, goals typically occur in the final minutes of the first and second half because both teams are analyzing the game while playing the other team. Additionally, some defenders are typically mentally and physically exhausted during this period, making it simple for strikers to take advantage of these weaknesses to create an opening for a goal or penalty.

[purple_sparkles]

why are more goals scored in the final minutes? can we take advantage

I myself am not sure whether my answer is correct or not, it is very likely that players can be seen physically experiencing fatigue, as well as the impact of replacing players, Attack tactics that have loopholes cause the opponent to be tired, extra time can also trigger goals in the last minute.

I think so, the reason for scoring goals is in the last minute, but we often see football matches in the last minute, many players experience decreased stamina and no longer concentrate, this could also be the cause, Maybe there are many other reasons that allow goals to be scored at the end of a football match.

You are right. On the final minutes of the match, players are tired and their remaining stamina is low. Moreover, there is a lot of pressure over players to succeed, what increases their levels of anxiety which may end resulting in mistakes by the defensive lines, while the attackers take advantage of that.

It's usually the losing team which puts more offensive pressure in the end of the game, while the defensive team can benefit itself by countering attacking and also scoring goals on the final moments.

The final minutes represent the most intense moments of a soccer match.

For me, the final minutes of a match are always the most intense, but I’m afraid to take risks and place bets specifically during the last few minutes. The physical and psychological pressure on the players is definitely higher toward the end of the game, and they can make mistakes that lead to conceding goals. However, this is such an unpredictable part of the match that I consider betting on goals in the final minutes to be a very risky bet.

[sompitonov]

Naturally, this can be taken advantage of when it comes to football betting because, in theory, goals typically occur in the final minutes of the first and second half because both teams are analyzing the game while playing the other team. Additionally, some defenders are typically mentally and physically exhausted during this period, making it simple for strikers to take advantage of these weaknesses to create an opening for a goal or penalty.

Players are certainly playing to the limits of their abilities and strength, and mistakes are most likely to happen at the end, although this is less likely in the top leagues because they are played by highly trained professionals. In any case, the nerves at the very end of a match are always at their limit, and players can simply lose it and make a mistake. While this has always been the case in matches, it has become even more frequent recently, which is certainly surprising.

[Chinesebaby]

But ultimately, bookmakers know what we know—and even a great deal more that we don't—and they set their odds accordingly.

That's always the biggest challenge when placing a bet at such die minutes time on football match, because the gaming odds don't remain static but always change with respect to the match performance. And knowing which exact time to score the next goal is still another challenge, of which i think this option is also one of the gambling features that generate the most revenue to casinos. because i have seen many scenerios when a team which you thought might win a match can just automatically get defeated, and if you had place a bet on the team to win, then you would have lost the bet. But you can onlly be saved you had bet on the number of goals and not the exact team to score the next goal.