Didn't Notice a Single Prediction Market Promotion Here

[obuoma]

I have not also seen platforms that are only for prediction market actively advertising here, maybe they do not see the need. However, I have seen a few casino advertise the prediction market that is integrated in their platform since we already have many casinos with their prediction market. Prediction markets that are exclusively for that purpose seems to have different means of getting their customers and such method is working for them as the big platforms keeps getting bigger by the day.

[Hispo]

I have not also seen platforms that are only for prediction market actively advertising here, maybe they do not see the need. However, I have seen a few casino advertise the prediction market that is integrated in their platform since we already have many casinos with their prediction market. Prediction markets that are exclusively for that purpose seems to have different means of getting their customers and such method is working for them as the big platforms keeps getting bigger by the day.

Honestly, it would be very surprising to see either Polymarket or Kalshi opening an official ANN here on the gambling section of the forum and also starting some advertising campaign here.
Because of the billions of dollars in volume they are currently moving, they are already in a different league, they advertise themselves in events like Superbowl in the United States. For them, advertising here would be the equivalent like a downgrade or going backwards.

[Darker45]

why aren't we flooded with new competitors until now?

With prediction markets, you need volume!

Perhaps this is indeed a major factor. But is it not understandable, even expected, for a new brand to start with a low volume? Is it therefore a hindrance so that they won't start at all?

When crypto exchanges became a thing several years ago, with a few brands standing out comparable to Polymarket and Kalshi in the prediction market, countless of new exchanges were coming out from everywhere. Volume was also an issue.

Also, volume may vary from one event to another. Even in Polymarket and Kalshi, there are contracts with low volume and zero activity.

Although I noticed that prediction market is now integrated into existing platforms, exchanges mainly, there seems to be too few that came out as entirely new prediction market platforms.

Also, prediction markets are manipulated.

That's quite a generalization. There may be specific markets or event contracts that are susceptible to manipulation, especially with conflict of interest or insider information, but surely they don't define the entire prediction market. Otherwise, this industry wouldn't have grown this big.

Honestly, it would be very surprising to see either Polymarket or Kalshi opening an official ANN here on the gambling section of the forum and also starting some advertising campaign here.
Because of the billions of dollars in volume they are currently moving, they are already in a different league, they advertise themselves in events like Superbowl in the United States. For them, advertising here would be the equivalent like a downgrade or going backwards.

I'm not expecting this either. That would be unnecessary, but it's not necessarily downgrading or going backwards. The brand you're promoting right now advertised here despite already having advertised in English Premier League, UFC, Formula 1, and others.

[Nrcewker]

I'm a bit curious.

I dont know the exact reason behind this but I am assuming that these prediction markets offer local events and there is a huge chance that the outcomes of these local markets can be easily manipulated. Hence these prediction markets often avoid Bitcointalk, as Bitcointalk has experienced gamblers who have the knowledge and ability to expose unfair prediction markets.

Many new prediction market sites are being launched but instead of promoting themselves on the Bitcointalk forum, they are focusing on other promotional platforms. I have personally seen many Instagram reels about them. Though, I dont know whether they are actually avoiding the forum for this reason or not.

[Julien_Olynpic]

The forecast market, or more precisely, the markets of companies that organize forecast bets and trade them, are structured in a winner-take-all manner. And forecast markets, as many have already noted, are very sensitive to a lack of liquidity. Most likely, at the very beginning, the company itself should provide some liquidity to attract potential players. If you don't have liquidity, no one will come to you. This is bad for start-ups, but good for established projects that have been in the market for a while. It gives them a competitive advantage.

[alani123]

Prediction markets have wide margins and don't follow current events as fast as a bookies can because it's the participants setting the market and not a real person watching the game in real time. Most markets have shit odds and liquidity and combined with the huge fees it's not worth it. Experienced gamblers will avoid them and I guess no matter how well they are promoted to the experienced people here they'd never catch on. So they know to avoid us.

[OgNasty]

Prediction markets are still pretty new. I think only major companies have even dipped a toe into that market. You see more and more people getting into it, but I think the lack of clear regulation is probably what is stopping new investment in opening new prediction markets. It is just too risky at this point in time.

[Outhue]

Prediction markets are full of deceit, because they needs to lure good numbers of people at the same time for one same prediction, liquidity and volumes, just like those we found on exchanges, casinos can survive without them, casinos can grow bit by bit without worries, even 10 online gamblers can make a difference it's why you will keep seeing high numbers of online casinos over prediction markets.

[pewboy]

Yes, perhaps currently on this forum there are no representatives of prediction market sites operating here such as Polymarket, Kalshi and others.

But for now the communication in this forum only discusses the transition of crypto casino platforms to prediction markets and also discussions about identifying the main trends of prediction markets, as well as about Platform Integration such as Trust Wallet, sports betting sites and so on. integrate into prediction markets.

Who knows, maybe in the future we will see on Bitcointalk a gradual migration of official prediction market platforms and their representatives, most likely there is no prediction market yet on Bitcointalk because prediction markets are not as numerous as online casinos.

that everyone likes gambling is nothing new and that there are many people ready to speculate and exploit this vice is no exception, the real news is the casinos that accept crypto and bitcoin, this is truly new and you can bet on everything, but even in normal currencies there are many sites for gambling, only that in the world of bitcoin there is more money

[donashih]

kinda surprised tbh, thought there would be way more posts about prediction markets here

[FinneysTrueVision]

Kalshi and Polymarket have pretty much cornered the prediction market niche. There are a few notable competitors like DraftKings and Robinhood, but their volume is still much smaller by comparison. Because of how dominant the big players are, there just aren't that many new prediction markets starting up.

Casinos on the other hand are far more numerous. This could partly have something to do with regulation compliance being easier and profit margins being higher per customer.

Once there is more competition in the prediction market space, I’m sure we will see some of them advertised here.

[xenomorfo]

Prediction markets are full of deceit, because they needs to lure good numbers of people at the same time for one same prediction, liquidity and volumes, just like those we found on exchanges, casinos can survive without them, casinos can grow bit by bit without worries, even 10 online gamblers can make a difference it's why you will keep seeing high numbers of online casinos over prediction markets.

Exactly ohhue, i totally agree with you
I smell fraud and deception a mile away, not so much from those who created the prediction market but from those who use it, placing events that they know something about and exploiting this knowledge to extort money.

[slaman29]

I'm guessing it could be because those platforms usually require KYC and maybe are US centered?

Never tried, just guessing. Forum's full of crypto people who like privacy, just take a look at most of the new ones being promoted. Anon casinos etc. Back to the old days I guess.

Edit: I saw @Ayers post and that's part of my guess (USA).

I totally agree with your point, and that aligns with what I said earlier. Maybe, we won't see platforms like Kalshi being promoted here, but Polymarket (and, others that are not KYC) makes sense, right ?

Not really, because there were 2 things: KYC and USA. The USA center market means regulations by USA which usually means much more restriction, much less privacy etc.

For example if Polymarket which some user already said is CFTC regulated, I didn't confirm but I think it makes sense, had me as a customer and CFTC forced them to hold my funds, they would do it. I know some people say they have 2 entities, but I always recall Binance who had the same structure, USA structure and international 'offshore structure.

But what happened when USA (IIRC DOJ and CFTC and SEC) went for Binance? They went for everything.

So I really feel like Poly won't push their limits on this forum. But that's just my guess

[gracreavix]

Kalshi and Polymarket have pretty much cornered the prediction market niche. There are a few notable competitors like DraftKings and Robinhood, but their volume is still much smaller by comparison. Because of how dominant the big players are, there just aren't that many new prediction markets starting up.

Casinos on the other hand are far more numerous. This could partly have something to do with regulation compliance being easier and profit margins being higher per customer.

Once there is more competition in the prediction market space, I’m sure we will see some of them advertised here.

For prediction market, this is what I noticed. Don't know whether you took have. I also ask around to get a little insight on it. For prediction market, you need two separate multiple parties to choose between two sides of a bets. When they are a lot of them, liquidity is much in such a way that it gives good return if you are right. So their dominance comes from the fact that they have customers with liquidity. Because you can have a lot of customers and they refusing to bet becomes useless. That's one thing I will say prediction market like polymarket and it's second have that no other ones have and will be difficult to have.

[sotelorene]

Exactly ohhue, i totally agree with you
I smell fraud and deception a mile away, not so much from those who created the prediction market but from those who use it, placing events that they know something about and exploiting this knowledge to extort money.

You are right the reason some folks created something like that is to scam people but since they won't force anyone to join them, if someone went ahead to join it will be at their own detriment because it will be obvious that greed made them to, I know some people are good in prediction but come to think about it,  no game is sure so there is a possibility any game can go wrong . I don't see myself looking for a prediction site or market because winning is totally luck.

[Fiatless]

Honestly, it would be very surprising to see either Polymarket or Kalshi opening an official ANN here on the gambling section of the forum and also starting some advertising campaign here.
Because of the billions of dollars in volume they are currently moving, they are already in a different league, they advertise themselves in events like Superbowl in the United States. For them, advertising here would be the equivalent like a downgrade or going backwards.

I don't think so. Some of the casinos on Bitcointalk are also spending substantial amounts in advertisement in other platforms. Some of them have sponsorship deals with top European sports like football. An example is Stake that is spending a fortune on promotions.

There is no limit to the expansion of the business, and this platform could be an avenue to get more users. In my view, Polymarket and Kalshi might not currently have interest on the forum for now. But this doesn't mean that Bitcointalk is not up to their standard. They might have interest in the future; who knows.

[bakasabo]

I can only purpose that there is no prediction market promotion here yet because it is still trendy, there is no need to promote what is already popular, everyone talk and use. Another possible reason could be lack of competition between those who offer placing predictions. There are no thousands of prediction market platforms, like there are casinos, and they dont need to fight for a client. When the hype starts to decline, then it will be a good moment to remind about predictions.

[davis196]

I am no expert in running gambling businesses, but I do think that traditional casinos are more lucrative and easier to establish in comparison to a prediction market. Even a smaller crypto casino can make decent enough profit margins despite the furious competition, while a prediction market needs a huge amount of active gamblers. I also think that it would be very difficult for new prediction markets to compete with the big names like Polymarket and Kalshi. The same cannot be said about new crypto casinos, that are offering generous bonuses. In the casino gambling world there are many gamblers, who are chasing bonuses and want to try out new casinos.

[Somegory]

Based on few comments here, they said one or two was here and they failed to succeed, I guess that will be the case of many prediction markets either they came on here or not.

Prediction market will struggle even more in every way to succeed and this also depends on the country of operation,getting regulated and all of that is not going to be easy compared to casinos.

I believe that many people don't want prediction markets to exist, due to heavy manipulation and corruption from the highest beings in the world especially institutions and insiders.

[Justbillywitt]

Moreover compared to casino there is more increased hazard of insider trading and problems surrounding outcome resolution here. Report have materialized of numerous CFTC investigation into insider trading concerning Polymarket, so regulatory and compliance burden cannot be underestimated.

Are you saying regulatory and compliance burden are the reasons the prediction markets are not on this forum? I do not agree with you and I think you are not right. If Polymarket and Kalshi want to come to this forum, it will take them nothing and they can even prefer to advertise. Regulatory and compliance are not the reasons they are not on this forum. The reason is because they do not want to be on this forum.

I won’t say they don’t want to be in the forum for promotion. The forum is not going anywhere anytime soon, the forum will always be here. Maybe in the future we will see the prediction market platforms coming to the forum to advertise. We don’t have more prediction markets platforms presently, but in years to come when their numbers will get close to the number of casinos we have around today, they will have the need to come to places like this forum to advertise. The available platforms can also decide to come to the forum tomorrow when they decide to widen their advertising reach and budgets.