It's worth noting that a similar rising support level formed at the bottom of the ZEC chart before it skyrocketed. Although there are no other indications that LTC might perform like ZEC did, purely on a speculative level, I wouldn't rule it out.
Good observation. I think it is also not impossible. If people become too negative about an altcoin even if the fundamentals are solid (LTC has still good usage for transactions / payments), then this can be indeed hint at such a possible spike. LTC spiked above 100$ several times when people already thought it was "dead".
Look at this photo to see the stark contrast between past prices for instance, back in 2018 and the current price of just 0.000737 BTC. It’s a staggering difference; over time, LTC has only been losing value.
This continuous loss of value against BTC is the case for most altcoins (99% at least, including Ethereum and Solana), and 98% of them do much, much worse than LTC. A reason is that early adopters often were able to fill their pockets cheap and then continuously add selling pressure. In the case of LTC, we have Charlie Lee's instamined coins, which were sold in 2017, so there is less of this kind of pressure.
In the chart however you can see that the curve of "devaluation" against BTC has flattened in the last years. Since it crossed the 0.0001 BTC line in 2024, i.e. in the last 2 years roughtly, it only has fallen 30% further (against BTC). In contrast, it fell 70% against BTC in the previous 2-year timeframe (2022 to 2024), and about 50% in the timeframe 2020-22. The only similarly "stable" period against BTC (with less than 50% fall / 2 years) was 2016-20, which was basically Litecoin's "late heyday".
The only reason its dollar-denominated price hasn’t fallen below $10 is that Bitcoin is currently trading at $82,900. But let’s hypothesize: if the price of Bitcoin were to drop sharply tomorrow say, to $10,000 then, at the current rate of 0.000737 BTC, Litecoin would be worth only $7.
This logic is a bit flawed for me, or at least exaggerated and not at all predictable. There is an influence of the Bitcoin price on altcoins, as there is such thing as a "macro crypto sentiment" and a Bitcoin winter also draws altcoins down, but this relationship isn't linear. Otherwise we wouldn't see the swings we have seen in the LTC/BTC chart (and in other charts like ETH/BTC etc.).