One year ago Bitcoin set ATH. When will Bitcoin repeat this?

[rbynxx]

in your opinion, what factors drove the drop in Bitcoin's price back then and when might we see a return to that all-time high?

I think it was more combinations of thing rather than just one scenario or event. The Trump's tariff drama back then definitely shock most of the investor's confidence, but I think the market was already priced in when BTC hit that ATH.There are a lot of people already sitting in huge profits, especially whales and long-term holders, so it's a no-brainer that some will probably starts to cash out. Plus the crazy leverage in the market that people trying to play, and those liquidations just made everything worse, I'd see it fuel something as well.

To hit that ATH of $126k again, I think late 2027 or early 2028 if market liquidity improves and some of these institutions money starts flowing back again in a consistent manner. But first, I think we need to see BTC claim that 100k level first. Long term we are definitely bullish, I'm not just not expecting a linear way back to ATH, it will not be easy.

[jossiel]

But let's take this bear market of 2026 as a good one and that is because it's not as painful and deep compared to the past bear markets we've been through.

A milder bear market is not necessarily a good thing.

It could mean Bitcoin's volatility is cooling off, and next bullrun might not be as strong as previous cycles. It also means fewer chances to scoop up BTC at bargain prices, so longterm accumulator might miss out on those deep discount.

Everything cuts both ways and shallow bear is no exception.

You're right although the damage that it usually does isn't as great as the past ones and with that, we cannot complain with it however be grateful.

Although there's always that opposite reaction as you've mentioned that the next bull run might be better than the past one.

I think it's a good point to notice that but for every bull run cycle that we're having, bitcoin always shows the unpredictable.

[coinrifft]

To hit that ATH of $126k again, I think late 2027 or early 2028 if market liquidity improves and some of these institutions money starts flowing back again in a consistent manner. But first, I think we need to see BTC claim that 100k level first. Long term we are definitely bullish, I'm not just not expecting a linear way back to ATH, it will not be easy.

There will always be a lot of liquidity during the bull market, the next block halving is scheduled on April 2028. So it we will at the year, there could be a lot of hype around that time already that we might see a lot of movement prior to the one catalyst.

But let's see, there are a lot of proponents of a super cycle, so there could be a lot of changes in the cycle if that happens. But for the ATH to be repeated then we will have to wait for the block halving. Although from the last time I check, fees are too high around that period so hopefully, we don't encounter that issue before prior to the halving as we might have suffer because there could be a lot of movement.

[rbynxx]

To hit that ATH of $126k again, I think late 2027 or early 2028 if market liquidity improves and some of these institutions money starts flowing back again in a consistent manner. But first, I think we need to see BTC claim that 100k level first. Long term we are definitely bullish, I'm not just not expecting a linear way back to ATH, it will not be easy.

There will always be a lot of liquidity during the bull market, the next block halving is scheduled on April 2028. So it we will at the year, there could be a lot of hype around that time already that we might see a lot of movement prior to the one catalyst.

But let's see, there are a lot of proponents of a super cycle, so there could be a lot of changes in the cycle if that happens. But for the ATH to be repeated then we will have to wait for the block halving. Although from the last time I check, fees are too high around that period so hopefully, we don't encounter that issue before prior to the halving as we might have suffer because there could be a lot of movement.

Yes, because it's a bull market, but what I wanted to emphasize is that the constant flow of large volumes of liquidity is a sign that the market is confident. That's still a long way tbh, but does crypto always need to wait for the halving so we can see a new ATH? I don't think so, it has matured already to be labelled as a speculative asset that will depend on its halving dates.

There have been a lot of changes we've seen on Bitcoin, and those times are wild tbh, and I think off-chain like LN and these rollups/sidechains could be an answer to those fees. I ain't worried a bit about that unless I constantly have to spend with it trading or doing some P2P stuff.

[free-bit.co.in]

Volatility cooling off or not, but gain is going the opposite direction of valuation, the diminishing of market cap growth is long to be expected. I'd take milder bear market anyday over massive bear market and potentially seeing higher volatility (it's not guaranteed). By the way I think there is no correlation between volatility cooling off with milder bear market because we haven't seen how bull market this time around is going to be, the bull market could be as great as before and the mild bear market could be a sign that demand is still there despite the bearish season.

You  think this bull market could still be just as strong as the previous ones? Then how do you explain BTC only going from $69k  to $126k this cycle, not even a 2x, despite the surge in institutional demand?

In the previous cycle, BTC went from $19k to $69k, around 3.5x. Or back in 2017 ,  it went from $1.1k to $19k, roughly 17x.

Bitcoin's volatility  has been dying down for years  and it's still going, that's pretty obvious. And I'm not saying this just because the current bear is shallower.

[Nathrixxx]

We should not talk about an all-time high when we have not yet considered the seasons, because you cannot expect to see much of a market pump or a bull run when we are already in bear season.

It is also a remarkable decision if we can always go through the past to ensure that we have more information regarding market expectations. This is where we go through the history and see how it has been performing in previous years, compare it to the current situation, and what to expect anytime soon in its due season.

[Ndabagi01]

I see the decline in this bearish season, which seems to recover quite fast, compared to the previous bearish seasons I think Bitcoin could reach the next new ATH faster. Perhaps we don’t need to wait for the 4 year cycle after halving as Bitcoin’s price volatility has already seen significant changes. Bitcoin could break above the last ATH all of a sudden. No one knows really, but it might not be very long.

Since bitcoin reached its previous ATH before halving took place which was the first time we are experiencing that, it has now become that bitcoin may not obey any of its former rules which it has been following before. Bitcoin never changed but the timing at which things are happening now is very different from the way it use to be in the past. Bitcoin will reach a new ATH this time around faster and it won’t even be a surprise because the market is already showing signs of that and it looks like it will work to achieve that in the nearest future.

[yudi09]

We should not talk about an all-time high when we have not yet considered the seasons, because you cannot expect to see much of a market pump or a bull run when we are already in bear season.

It is also a remarkable decision if we can always go through the past to ensure that we have more information regarding market expectations. This is where we go through the history and see how it has been performing in previous years, compare it to the current situation, and what to expect anytime soon in its due season.

We need to analyze the situation to speculate on whether or not the next ATH is likely to occur. On social media platforms like X, I’ve noted that it’s not just a few but many people discussing the possibility of it happening on October 10—and now it’s no longer October 10 but October 11, yet the price is still above $80k and below $85k.
Rather than discussing when the next ATH will occur, I think it’s better to set aside fresh funds to prepare for the bottom, since the lowest price since Bitcoin reached its ATH has not yet occurred at the level predicted for the bottom.

[BALIK]

Since bitcoin reached its previous ATH before halving took place which was the first time we are experiencing that, it has now become that bitcoin may not obey any of its former rules which it has been following before. Bitcoin never changed but the timing at which things are happening now is very different from the way it use to be in the past. Bitcoin will reach a new ATH this time around faster and it won’t even be a surprise because the market is already showing signs of that and it looks like it will work to achieve that in the nearest future.

Bitcoin has never followed any rule or pattern to a tee over the years. Even 4year cycle has never been guaranteed, nor is it some fixed template the market has to follow. It might repeat, it might not. That is exactly why this time is different narrative pops up every cycle.

Same goes for this time around. Either scenario could play out. Bitcoin hitting new ATH sooner is just one possibility, it's not sure thing just because market rebounding quicker than in past cycles.

[crwth]

I see this topic all the time, and there's always a part I like to highlight. It's the one with Bitcoin ETF inflows and outflows.

If you look at ETF volume, I think it's one of the biggest drivers of Bitcoin demand, so a slowdown in ETF purchases, I think it will affect BTC pricing.

Institutions have the money. 

[SatsPH]

I see this topic all the time, and there's always a part I like to highlight. It's the one with Bitcoin ETF inflows and outflows.

If you look at ETF volume, I think it's one of the biggest drivers of Bitcoin demand, so a slowdown in ETF purchases, I think it will affect BTC pricing.

Institutions have the money. 

Yes, it's one of the driver as what we have seen in the previous bull run, the inflows is in Bitcoin, that's why last year we have our last all time high at least for the bull cycle. But one year after we are now in the bear market, so we shouldn't expect a repeat of last year.

I think though the ETF will still continue to be a big factor in the next bull cycle. There are still a lot of demand on Bitcoin, specially on the next halving as the supply is going to be limited again. So there will be a big fight amongst us, institutions and retail investors. One advantage they have is that they have the money. But we have been here for so long that even if we have a small capital we can still go and accumulate.

[m2017]

one year ago on October 6, 2025 Bitcoin set its all-time high of $126 198.07 as Coinmarketcap shows: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/

I can say with 100% certainty and with expert knowledge, that bitcoin will repeat this all-time high. However, no expert will tell you exactly when that will happen.

unfortunately, that price level did not hold for long due to a number of factors, including macroeconomic ones. notable among these were the tensions between the US and Iran which had already emerged by then and escalated into open conflict in February, as well as Trump’s "tariff madness," which disrupted global trade. long-term holders who began selling off their Bitcoin also played a role.

If you look at the history of bitcoin, you’ll see that previous ATH didn't last long either. I believe these peaks will remain short-lived in the future as well (relative to btc's price history). This is partly because some holders start selling this asset once they see an inflated price (after all, wouldn't want to miss out on the profit, right?).

in your opinion, what factors drove the drop in Bitcoin's price back then and when might we see a return to that all-time high?

The primary factor behind the falling is the human element. Investors, aware of bitcoin's volatility, realize that once this asset hits an ATH, its price will likely drop; consequently, many try to lock in substantial profits at such moments. However, this is only one part of the picture. Overall, bitcoin (like any financial asset) is influenced not by a single factor, but by a combination of them, some of which you mentioned in your earlier post. I am certain there were other factors at play that went unnoticed, factors that existed and exerted "shadow" pressure on bitcoin, even though we were unaware of them at the time.

Some expect to see a return to that ATH (or even higher) within the coming year, but to be honest, I have my doubts. After all, ATH don't happen every year; it occur with a certain periodicity - linked, as we know, to the 4-year's BTC-cycle (and the halving). One thing I can say for sure, speaking as an expert, is that in the next cycle, we will definitely see a new ATH that surpasses the previous one.

[devouring-DARKNESS]

Volatility cooling off or not, but gain is going the opposite direction of valuation, the diminishing of market cap growth is long to be expected. I'd take milder bear market anyday over massive bear market and potentially seeing higher volatility (it's not guaranteed). By the way I think there is no correlation between volatility cooling off with milder bear market because we haven't seen how bull market this time around is going to be, the bull market could be as great as before and the mild bear market could be a sign that demand is still there despite the bearish season.

You  think this bull market could still be just as strong as the previous ones? Then how do you explain BTC only going from $69k  to $126k this cycle, not even a 2x, despite the surge in institutional demand?

In the previous cycle, BTC went from $19k to $69k, around 3.5x. Or back in 2017 ,  it went from $1.1k to $19k, roughly 17x.

Bitcoin's volatility  has been dying down for years  and it's still going, that's pretty obvious. And I'm not saying this just because the current bear is shallower.

It does this a few times and it's suddenly a pattern? I'm not going to pretend to be an expert in these kinds of things but what I will say is that we shouldn't jump to conclusion on how bitcoin will behave it the future based on previous happenstance, at ltnot entirely, we should still keep in mind that there is a spontaneity to bitcoin, the next cycle could very well show you something you never expected to happen.

[drangos]

To me, liquidity and real demand for the spot is more important than attempting to pinpoint the drop on one political factor. Investors might be drawn to risky assets when tariffs are imposed and geopolitical confidence is low, but they can also be drawn to sell when they've made substantial gains, too. I would keep an eye on ETF net flows for the next ATH, as well as selling of long holding periods and overall liquidity, in addition to the four-year cycle. The halving can have an impact on supply, but not on the schedule, of a new peak.

[Jaweria parveen]

Bitcoin has never followed any rule or pattern to a tee over the years. Even 4year cycle has never been guaranteed, nor is it some fixed template the market has to follow. It might repeat, it might not. That is exactly why this time is different narrative pops up every cycle.

Same goes for this time around. Either scenario could play out. Bitcoin hitting new ATH sooner is just one possibility, it's not sure thing just because market rebounding quicker than in past cycles.

We also understand that Bitcoin neither follows anyone nor its previous pattern, that is why Bitcoin is independent, that is why even the world's governments invest in it. Yes, sometimes some things become similar, but it is not in Bitcoin to follow the same thing every year or every day or every week or even in 4 years.Because when Bitcoin comes down, it will definitely go down in price first, but we will not remember the things of the previous year. If we look at the cycle of the last 4 years and the cycle that will be completed in after 1.5 years, there may be a little similarity, but we cannot match it with it.Bitcoin is always live, so we can see the previous things in Bitcoin, but Bitcoin cannot adopt a tradition while looking at it. Bitcoin can create its ATH anytime, for this it will have to break some things or create some previous pattern.

[internetional]

Multi-year highs and lows on the BTC/USD chart have long been printed strictly within one specific window: plus or minus three weeks from November 28. Since 126k was recorded outside this timeframe, it shouldn't be the multi-year top. I expect it to be surpassed either this year before December 19 (which could then act as the reversal point into a full-blown bear market), or later, but before October of next year - before the October 2025 point has time to become a multi-year high.

[danadc]

Since bitcoin reached its previous ATH before halving took place which was the first time we are experiencing that, it has now become that bitcoin may not obey any of its former rules which it has been following before. Bitcoin never changed but the timing at which things are happening now is very different from the way it use to be in the past. Bitcoin will reach a new ATH this time around faster and it won’t even be a surprise because the market is already showing signs of that and it looks like it will work to achieve that in the nearest future.

It's true, sometimes I think that the whales and institutions wanted to eliminate that pattern of thinking we all had, and that they manipulated the market so that such a thing is no longer expected. Although everything points to the conditions being right for what most people expect to happen, the biggest whales with the most money are acting to prevent it. I don't know if it's because I'm overthinking it, but from a more rational point of view, that theory isn't so bad.

Patterns like the idea that it will grow in a certain period because it has been repeated over the years, that no longer has any value; that mentality has changed.