Warning to the bulls...

[N12]

the bitcoin economy

HAHAHAHA

[mjcmurfy]

I don't get the joke...

[old_engineer]

i dare say an apology is coming from somewhere!

I'll wait a few days and eat my hat if I am wrong. I don't have a problem with being proved wrong. Anything that strengthens the bitcoin economy is good, even if I have made a balls of my trading decisions. There is nothing stoping me from buying back in, but I still think my data will be proved correct at least to some extent. This could well be the last push. The only thing I wish is that I had waited a little longer.

I saw the same high possibility of a drop as you did, and I also sold out before today's rally.  It's not really being "wrong": no one can forecast one big player buying $250k worth of bitcoins. The bid side didn't budge, either, so it was all new money - very unexpected.

If that had been a 60k btc sell, the price would have hit $2, no question about it.  It's still a small and unpredictable market.

[N12]

I don't get the joke...

There is no Bitcoin economy. Bitcoin is currently nothing but a USD middleman USD => BTC => USD and a speculative investment.

Or have you seen people earning Bitcoin wages yet?

[proudhon]

i dare say an apology is coming from somewhere!

I'll wait a few days and eat my hat if I am wrong. I don't have a problem with being proved wrong. Anything that strengthens the bitcoin economy is good, even if I have made a balls of my trading decisions. There is nothing stoping me from buying back in, but I still think my data will be proved correct at least to some extent. This could well be the last push. The only thing I wish is that I had waited a little longer.

I saw the same high possibility of a drop as you did, and I also sold out before today's rally.  It's not really being "wrong": no one can forecast one big player buying $250k worth of bitcoins. The bid side didn't budge, either, so it was all new money - very unexpected.

If that had been a 60k btc sell, the price would have hit $2, no question about it.  It's still a small and unpredictable market.

Before this most recent spike a single 60k BTC sell would not have taken the price to $2.  It wouldn't have even broken $3.  Perhaps subsequent selling would have broken $3, but even that's not certain.

[mjcmurfy]

The divergence is back to being huge again:



@old_engineer: I don't think the money was necessarily new, it could have just as easily come have come from off the order books on mtgox, or from bitcoinica. There is no way to know for sure if it is new money or not.

@Blitzboom: I don't know about you, but I know that I am making a decent income from my bitcoin business.

[gewure]

you forgot, that by definition a bitcoin mining person is a bitcoin bull. why sell if prices continue to grow? 

[cypherdoc]

The divergence is back to being huge again:



@old_engineer: I don't think the money was necessarily new, it could have just as easily come have come from off the order books on mtgox, or from bitcoinica. There is no way to know for sure if it is new money or not.

@Blitzboom: I don't know about you, but I know that I am making a decent income from my bitcoin business.

thats actually great news.  congratulations.

[PatrickHarnett]

They represent the active trades that have actually taken place on gox. I.e. if I buy 1btc, someone who has an unfulfilled ask sitting on the order book sells me the 1btc, but it is the 1btc buy that is being counted as the initiating trade not the other way around. If you post an order for a price that is not currently available, it will sit there until it is fulfilled. And it is the fulfilling order that is counted.

What is that supposed to imply?

I guess if you have time to wait you post an offer and if you care less about price and just want asap you go to the market. So recently the sellers have been more impatient?

I'm not trying to imply anything. That post was in response to PatrickHarnett's question.

Thank you.  It may  or may not be a relevant metric, but interesting that you have captured the data.  Time series analysis can be fun, but it also might be random, or a sentiment of the general movement of the trading.

[gewure]

I don't get the joke...

There is no Bitcoin economy. Bitcoin is currently nothing but a USD middleman USD => BTC => USD and a speculative investment.

Or have you seen people earning Bitcoin wages yet?

every commercial SR-seller..

[N12]

And your Bitcoin wages are your main source of income? Do you not convert the majority of them to fiat money to sustain yourself?

If so, there may be a tiny Bitcoin economy.

[caston]

And your Bitcoin wages are your main source of income? Do you not convert the majority of them to fiat money to sustain yourself?

If so, there may be a tiny Bitcoin economy.

I think it's more of a meta-currency.

[anu]

I think it's more of a meta-currency.

Thought this BS was thoroughly refuted:
http://bitcoinmedia.com/bitcoin-replaces-western-union-thats-all/

Bitcoin can be many things but at the moment it's at it's not even in it's infancy. It's a newly hatched dragon. Wait until it flies and breathes fire.

[mjcmurfy]

Supplies on MtGox will be increasing from today onwards, I'll wager.



You can see that on the 31st, the daily bid (buying) volume briefly exceeded the ask (selling) volume, but it immediately went straight back to the way it has been for days with the asks greatly exceeding the bids. I honestly cannot understand why so many of you people are buying when it is clear as day that there is some major cashing out going on at overinflated prices.

Buyers are getting absolutely fleeced at the moment. If you would all just have a little patience, you will get these coins for MUCH cheaper very soon.

[cypherdoc]

Supplies on MtGox will be increasing from today onwards, I'll wager.



You can see that on the 31st, the daily bid volume briefly exceeded the ask volume, but it immediately went straight back to the asks greatly exceeding the bids. I honestly cannot understand why so many of you people are buying when it is clear that there is some major cashing out going on at overinflated prices.

i know this must be torture: up 22% from 4.3.

c'mon over to the good side mj, you're a bull 

[mjcmurfy]

I will, once the price is a little more realistic again! If I bought now, I'd just be giving my money directly to you, then be on the losing side once again when the price falls. I won't say it's not torture, but I made 95% profit already, and I'm happy with that. I'll wait, I have faith in the data...  

[ineededausername]

mj: Yeah keep posting those charts.  You posted them on my New Year's Eve Rally thread and derp! It went up to $5!

[mjcmurfy]

mj: Yeah keep posting those charts.  You posted them on my New Year's Eve Rally thread and derp! It went up to $5!

Yep. That was an epic fail. But I wouldn't presume to try and predict crazy moves like that in the short term.
The bulls are losing steam, though, I can feel it. And the data is confirming it.

[cypherdoc]

I will, once the price is a little more realistic again! If I bought now, I'd just be giving my money directly to you, then be on the losing side once again when the price falls. I won't say it's not torture, but I made 95% profit already, and I'm happy with that. I'll wait, I have faith in the data...  

i guarantee you won't be buying them from me.  i already made it clear i was holding for much higher prices.  seriously; i don't trade.

[plastic.elastic]

I will, once the price is a little more realistic again! If I bought now, I'd just be giving my money directly to you, then be on the losing side once again when the price falls. I won't say it's not torture, but I made 95% profit already, and I'm happy with that. I'll wait, I have faith in the data...  

i guarantee you won't be buying them from me.  i already made it clear i was holding for much higher prices.  seriously; i don't trade.

Buy and hold isnt a smart trading method. But whatever.