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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero - A secure, private, untraceable cryptocurrency  (Read 4667221 times)
othe
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July 13, 2014, 03:54:27 PM
 #9501

Quote from: devphp

If that logic were sound than the value of both ought to be very close to zero because they are infinitely reproducible.

It might go pretty close to zero, emission has just started and will take years with Monero emitting twice as much as Boolberry or others.

You guys are just living in illusions Smiley I agree about the Bitcoin network effect (although it's debateable that the latest bubble in November and perhaps the one in April, 2013 were spurred by Mt.Gox bots), but a network effect in Monero and first mover advantage? That's just silly.

You are living in illusion with your flawed math.

Monero is a better investment for investors, as you already said the most coins will be emmited within 2 years (around 75%) then we have a very low inflation - whereas the Boolberry emission will have a high inflation at that time.
One day Moneros emission curve will CROSS the Boolberry emission curve and our inflation is _less_.
Monero clearly gives an advantage to early adopters - if thats good or bad is out of context, but for investors i guess it is.

To show some more figures. Over 30.000.000 Litecoin are already mined, and there are still 28k LTC mined every day (Monero currently 22.5k) - the LTC price is x times higher than the Monero price and it takes till next autumn for Litecoin to have the first block halving - you can calculate yourself how much Litecoin will be out then i guess - and i bet the price will be still higher than it is today.

If you want to have a high emission rate like this coin, it should be 80% in the first 6-12 months. Reason being, 4 years is a long time. Holders are going to see their coins losing value, and other potential buyers will say, heck I will buy in when its at 75% emission. People lose interest very quickly.

NXT was successful because it was POS, all coins distributed, and the more people interested, the higher the value would go. If Monero had something like 80-90% in 6-12 months. (The only problem I see is a big dip in hash rate after 6-12 months) It wouldn't face the main criticsm that NXT did with people complaining about the IPO/Distribution.

We are only at about ~2 million coins, and 14.72 million will be out by 2018. Unless we create a demand for 4 years that can match the amount of coins being mined, its gonna be difficult to keep the price from going down. And I think all of us want the price to go up vs down.


14 million coins arent much by then if Monero has utility and there is enough demand.

As you said yourself, we need utility and demand and that we can archive working on the code and making Monero easy to use - and thats what we do at the moment.

This price discussions are useless and help no one, we are talking about alpha level software on a pure speculative market so far...

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July 13, 2014, 04:00:30 PM
 #9502

You are living in illusion with your flawed math.

Monero is a better investment for investors, as you already said the most coins will be emmited within 2 years (around 75%) then we have a very low inflation - whereas the Boolberry emission will have a high inflation at that time.
One day Moneros emission curve will CROSS the Boolberry emission curve and our inflation is _less_.
Monero clearly gives an advantage to early adopters - if thats good or bad is out of context, but for investors i guess it is.


So, you're assuming investors will be buying the first 2 years and hodling. Also assuming that there will be enough investors to keep buying from miners constantly dumping on the market to keep the price stable or even going higher. Ok, it's hard to argue with that logic. Like you said price discussions are pointless. Let's wait what happens. But 2 years is an eternity in crypto space.
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July 13, 2014, 04:24:31 PM
 #9503

So many people (including bitcointalk hero members and btc whales) saying they are buyers at this price but not bid support on the exchanges. I find this curious.


Buy Orders
Price   XMR   BTC
0.00240200   301.44639286   0.72407424
0.00240005   83.33159726   0.2
0.00240003   20.83307292   0.05
0.00240002   2054.5795685   4.93103206
0.00240001   500   1.200005
0.00240000   1658.80367081   3.98112881

There are 75 BTC against 89000 XMRs at Poloniex, divide 75/89000 = 0.0008, that's the average price buyers are willing to pay. Frankly, I don't see how the price can be 5x higher than its closest competitor Boolberry, both coins are technically equal. Even hero members are not bigger than the market and can't support the price indefinately.
Network effect, liquidity, first mover advantage. Monero is THE cryptonote currency. Everything else is altcoins. Why do you think bitcoin is worth 70 times more than litecoin?

Boolberry does not offer anything significantly better/different than monero.

If all it takes is to have a technically equal currency for it to be valued at 1:1 ratio then you also need to understand that all coins will be equally worthless due to unlimited inflation.

Come on, what network effect?! Bitcoin had years before altcoins, Monero and others launched about the same time, where is the advantage?
I did run cryptonote exchange, with 750 members who were all exposed to monero (and bytecoin) but never boolberry.

A few other comparisons to make:

XMRBBRMultiplier
Reddit Subscribers5122223x
People on IRC150+305x
Forum topic pages4971174.25x
Volume in BTC (today)903.2228x

Monero is vastly more popular. Yes, boolberry launched fairly soon thereafter, which may explain why it's doing as well as it does. But monero is the currency with the biggest network and highest liquidity.

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July 13, 2014, 04:32:00 PM
 #9504

You are living in illusion with your flawed math.

Monero is a better investment for investors, as you already said the most coins will be emmited within 2 years (around 75%) then we have a very low inflation - whereas the Boolberry emission will have a high inflation at that time.
One day Moneros emission curve will CROSS the Boolberry emission curve and our inflation is _less_.
Monero clearly gives an advantage to early adopters - if thats good or bad is out of context, but for investors i guess it is.


So, you're assuming investors will be buying the first 2 years and hodling. Also assuming that there will be enough investors to keep buying from miners constantly dumping on the market to keep the price stable or even going higher. Ok, it's hard to argue with that logic. Like you said price discussions are pointless. Let's wait what happens. But 2 years is an eternity in crypto space.

After 2 years 15 mio coins are out.
Currently we have 2 million out with a current marketcap of 2.230.xxx usd

So over the next 2 years we need to get a 7.5 times higher marketcap to hold the current price - 24 million usd and that is literally nothing if Monero proofs utility - litecoin currently has 271 million and NXT 45 Million - far more.

I cant see a reason why we cant reach them somewhere in the future but thats just my personal opinion.

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July 13, 2014, 04:54:07 PM
 #9505

Basically, coming from a purely investors perspective.

Monero is the only cryptonote worth investing/buying.

Boolberry's instamine is pretty bad with the PGPU making over 2k boolberry(difficulty dropped) per day now, and was making 5k-7k bbr everyday a few weeks ago....Plus Botnets.. = No thank you

Ducknote reminds me of Dogecoin, there dev is nonexistent, and doesn't really have any work being done

Quazarcoin doesnt really have much work being done either

So that leaves Monero, the only one that has a future..
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July 13, 2014, 05:01:12 PM
 #9506

Basically, coming from a purely investors perspective.

Monero is the only cryptonote worth investing/buying.

Boolberry's instamine is pretty bad with the PGPU making over 2k boolberry(difficulty dropped) per day now, and was making 5k-7k bbr a few weeks ago....Plus Botnets.. = No thank you

Ducknote reminds me of Dogecoin, there dev is nonexistent, and doesn't really have any work being done

Quazarcoin doesnt really have much work being done either

So that leaves Monero, the only one that has a future..
Monero had more of an instamine than Boolberry, just see http://monerochain.info/charts/difficulty. Claymore likely mined with his GPU miner before he released it with a 5% fee. cbuchner1 also has mined Monero with a private gpu miner on EC2.
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July 13, 2014, 05:03:11 PM
 #9507

The hash rate is going down, is this the miner going away or botnets are moving on ?
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July 13, 2014, 05:03:56 PM
 #9508

Monero had more of an instamine than Boolberry, just see http://monerochain.info/charts/difficulty. Claymore likely mined with his GPU miner before he released it with a 5% fee. cbuchner1 also has mined Monero with a private gpu miner on EC2.

There was no instamine;
http://monerochain.info/charts/coins

Instamine implies massive inflation in the beginning where a small group of individuals gets all the coins. Inflation is still so high that anyone is welcome to bring miners on the network and get paid large amounts of XMR.

Code:
XMR: 44GBHzv6ZyQdJkjqZje6KLZ3xSyN1hBSFAnLP6EAqJtCRVzMzZmeXTC2AHKDS9aEDTRKmo6a6o9r9j86pYfhCWDkKjbtcns
darkota
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July 13, 2014, 05:04:12 PM
 #9509

Basically, coming from a purely investors perspective.

Monero is the only cryptonote worth investing/buying.

Boolberry's instamine is pretty bad with the PGPU making over 2k boolberry(difficulty dropped) per day now, and was making 5k-7k bbr a few weeks ago....Plus Botnets.. = No thank you

Ducknote reminds me of Dogecoin, there dev is nonexistent, and doesn't really have any work being done

Quazarcoin doesnt really have much work being done either

So that leaves Monero, the only one that has a future..
Monero had more of an instamine than Boolberry, just see http://monerochain.info/charts/difficulty. Claymore likely mined with his GPU miner before he released it with a 5% fee. cbuchner1 also has mined Monero with a private gpu miner on EC2.

I've seen that difficulty chart, doesnt show any instamine..., EC2 is only for very short periods of time. and GPU:CPU is 1:1 ratio, so he couldnt have made much..

Boolberry's private gpu miner guy was making 5-7k boolberry per day....hes still making over 2k boolberry per day...his instamine is in the hundreds of thousands unfortunately with boolberry.
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July 13, 2014, 05:07:51 PM
 #9510

Monero had more of an instamine than Boolberry, just see http://monerochain.info/charts/difficulty. Claymore likely mined with his GPU miner before he released it with a 5% fee. cbuchner1 also has mined Monero with a private gpu miner on EC2.

That was the time it hit poloniex and ec2 mining was really profitable...
Claymore miners is slower than a large ec2 instance and way harder to scale up.

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July 13, 2014, 05:08:55 PM
 #9511

The hash rate is going down, is this the miner going away or botnets are moving on ?
It looks like some botnets or EC2 miners have stopped.
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July 13, 2014, 05:10:17 PM
 #9512

i picked up about 5BTC worth of XMR in the 0038-0042 range.

should i go in the corner and cry?  or hold my head up high?

NEM, LSK, STRAT
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July 13, 2014, 05:12:22 PM
 #9513

i picked up about 5BTC worth of XMR in the 0038-0042 range.

should i go in the corner and cry?  or hold my head up high?

Keep some powder dry.

Rep Thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=381041
If one can not confer upon another a right which he does not himself first possess, by what means does the state derive the right to engage in behaviors from which the public is prohibited?
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July 13, 2014, 05:15:46 PM
 #9514

i picked up about 5BTC worth of XMR in the 0038-0042 range.

should i go in the corner and cry?  or hold my head up high?

Keep some powder dry.

in case xmr starts to fly?

NEM, LSK, STRAT
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July 13, 2014, 05:16:51 PM
 #9515

People must like scam coins and we must be living in the age of the alt coins if people can't wait a couple years for the natural economy of a coin to play out.

People want a honest and fair launch like XMR but they don't want to wait the 4 year for the mass majority of the coins to be emitted and yet complain of pre-mine, instamine, IPO scams.

People must want scam pump and dump coins because they don't want to wait the years for a coin to develop and yet complain when 50 new scam coins are created every day.

The only conclusion is people are stupid and irrational.
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July 13, 2014, 05:22:24 PM
 #9516

The only conclusion is people are stupid and irrational.

this... is not news Smiley

im interested in alts - can't put my finger on why exactly.  its the wild west and all a bit crazy.  i actually DO take the long term outlook.  ive put a few BTC into XMR and some others (including some IPOs).  i've made a promise to myself to wait a MINIMUM of 12 months before consider if i'm going to sell any of them.   sure, you could probably get lucky and make a few bucks trading a young coin, but the only real growth is likely over the course of years (like btc)

hodl your altcoins.

NEM, LSK, STRAT
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July 13, 2014, 05:57:56 PM
 #9517

I must be a masochist or something. Why do I keep going to poloniex to look at the price?

Rep Thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=381041
If one can not confer upon another a right which he does not himself first possess, by what means does the state derive the right to engage in behaviors from which the public is prohibited?
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July 13, 2014, 06:18:55 PM
 #9518

Monero had more of an instamine than Boolberry, just see http://monerochain.info/charts/difficulty. Claymore likely mined with his GPU miner before he released it with a 5% fee. cbuchner1 also has mined Monero with a private gpu miner on EC2.

There was no instamine;
http://monerochain.info/charts/coins

Instamine implies massive inflation in the beginning where a small group of individuals gets all the coins. Inflation is still so high that anyone is welcome to bring miners on the network and get paid large amounts of XMR.

Correct.  The term instamine does not apply to either BBR or XMR.

The real "instamines" are when you have, e.g., broken difficulty adjustment algorithms that allow a significant fraction of the coin to be mined before others are aware it exists.

e.g., the quote about Darkcoin, "That means in less than 8 hours, almost 5% of the Darkcoins that ever will be created spawned in that 1/3 of a day." (source:  http://www.devtome.com/doku.php?id=a_massive_investigation_of_instamines_and_fastmines_for_the_top_alt_coins#darkcoin  ).  An instamine is a violation of the advertised or planned emission rate for the coin.

In contrast, what happened with both XMR and BBR is closer to what happened to Bitcoin:  The initial distribution of mining hashrate was uneven, and several individuals were able to mine at a cost advantage relative to others, when they used a technological advantage to do so.  This happens to most coins, and evens out over time.  Heck - for the first few weeks of XMR, almost nobody knew it existed, and all of those early adopters probably got in at a great price.

There's a huge difference:  I believe Tacotime and Zoidberg more than I believe the Darkcoin story, because in neither of these cases, as far as we know, did the people responsible for the coin lie about what was going on and/or profit.  An instamine or secret pre-mine, on the other hand, suggests that either the developer is incompetent, or dishonest.

I'm not sure what I'd call BCN, because it depends whether you believe that it existed "in the shadows" for two years, or whether the developers used the deliberately slowed down miner to fake two years of a blockchain in less time.  I personally believe the latter, but I have no concrete evidence of it, just a hunch based upon how slowed the mining process was.

cbuchner1 is right:  Coins *should* be released with fast CPU and GPU miners in the future, because when a coin with a new PoW is released, we already know exactly what will happen...

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July 13, 2014, 06:36:38 PM
 #9519

I must be a masochist or something. Why do I keep going to poloniex to look at the price?

Because its going to bounce at any point and you wanna be on that train  Cool
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July 13, 2014, 06:49:45 PM
 #9520

Basically, coming from a purely investors perspective.

Monero is the only cryptonote worth investing/buying.

Boolberry's instamine is pretty bad with the PGPU making over 2k boolberry(difficulty dropped) per day now, and was making 5k-7k bbr everyday a few weeks ago....Plus Botnets.. = No thank you

Ducknote reminds me of Dogecoin, there dev is nonexistent, and doesn't really have any work being done

Quazarcoin doesnt really have much work being done either

So that leaves Monero, the only one that has a future..

Monero hatership is also reminiscent to Bitcoin's. That also tells a lot if you want to understand:

Hating something does not pay you, so why would you do it? - Not unless you are paid Wink

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