The Deja Vu. It is so strong right now. Every 3-4 months this happens. I remember the last time DeathAndTaxes kicked some hopper ass with logic and numbers, and he must be preparing his counter-assault now...

Funny... you read "

All of his logical fallacies boil down to an inability to understand the difference between variance and expected return. It is possible for simultaneously hopping to provide a significant increase to expected return AND have variance make measuring that difficulty in the short term." and think DeathAndTaxes kicked some hopper ass with logic and numbers...

Read the last part "

...increase to expected return AND have variance make measuring that difficulty in the short term." and read this:

"Although

**expected return** is the best estimate available of future returns, the actual return is not likely to equal the expected return. For this reason, investors and managers would like to have an idea of how precise their estimate might be. To help quantify the precision of their estimates, you use two concepts:

**variance** and its square root, the standard deviation.

Most people are risk averse, in that they wish to minimize the amount of risk they must endure to earn a certain level of expected return. If investors were indifferent to risk, they would not be influenced by the differences between stock A and stock B above, whereas the risk-averse investor would clearly prefer stock A. Therefore, most people want to know the range, or dispersion, of possible outcomes, as well as the likelihood of certain outcomes occurring....(so you can learn to) calculate the

**variance** of an

**expected return**."

http://ci.columbia.edu/ci/premba_test/c0332/s6/s6_4.htmlAlso I know, a pools speed is inversely related to it variance...and slow pools are risky (high variance)...that is why hoppers penalize those pools while hopping. Which will cause a miner to spend the most time in low variance faster pools.

Now read once again "

simultaneously hopping to provide a significant increase to expected return AND have variance make measuring that difficulty in the short term." If you easily get confused, that is not the clue that logic is being used to "kick(ed) some hopper ass"