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Author Topic: Does martingale really works?  (Read 122904 times)
leex1528
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May 29, 2014, 12:18:19 PM
 #101

It is true that the probably of having 15 consecutive losses is very low, but if you run a bot for hours or days, the probability of having 15 consecutive losses in that tens of thousands of bets would not be small. Wink
That is true. But you do not play tens of thousands of bets with my modified Martingale where you switch the wager 10-100x for a few rounds here and there. It's riskier, true, but then again, it takes less bets, so maybe it's not. In either case, it's safer and better than a pure Martingale, which is a guaranteed way to fail.

Every method is a guaranteed way to fail.  It is 100% luck when you win.  Martingale increases the odds for you to win though.  But just like every method, the more you play, the more the odds go against you.
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May 29, 2014, 12:55:36 PM
 #102

Using martingale(aka martinfail) guarantees you will lose. Sorry guys, I lost 2.15btc to know it's true, never ever use martingale, for anything.

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leex1528
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May 29, 2014, 01:02:35 PM
 #103

Using martingale(aka martinfail) guarantees you will lose. Sorry guys, I lost 2.15btc to know it's true, never ever use martingale, for anything.

How long did you bet for, what was your min bet?  Martingale is the absolute best method to use to give you an advantage.
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May 29, 2014, 01:18:06 PM
 #104

a few years ago i fucked around with the martingale strategy in sports betting.  It started off fine and dandy, made a lot of money over the course of a few months and then quickly shot back to reality over the course of a couple days.  I have learned my lesson the hard way.  Every so often when i have a lot of break even days i have a little voice in the back of my head telling me "hey if you use martingale you would be making a lot of money and not breaking even."  Well fuck that stupid little voice.  I learned my lesson and i know now that the voice is just going to break me again.

I've tested martingale in multiple ways. Even going to dice sites and starting off with 1 satoshi, you end up at a Bitcoin+ before the day is over. A lot of people don't consider the real cost when they try to calculate it. You don't just consider the doubled amount. For example, the real cost is (starting with 1 satoshi):

1   1
2   3
3   9
4   27
5   81
6   243
7   729
8   2187
9   6561
10   19683
11   59049
12   177147
13   531441
14   1594323
15   4782969
16   14348907
17   43046721
18   129140163
19   387420489
20   1162261467


So 18 losses = over a Bitcoin already. Only two more after that puts you at an almost 12 BTC loss. And it keeps going up from there. And that's just starting at a single satoshi (1/100,000,000 of a Bitcoin)!

Very confused by this, do you know what martingale is?
1. 1 Sat
2. 1+2= 3 Sats
3. 1+2+4 = 7 Sats
4. 1+2+4+8 = 15 Sats
5. 1+2+4+8+16 = 31 Sats
6. 1+2+4+8+16+32= 63 Sats

From the pattern you can see it is (2^x)-1 to see how much you have lost in a given amount of rolls.  2^20-1 = 1,048,576  or (.01 roughly)

Not sure what kind of betting you are doing though!  

Lulz, you're right. This is why you don't throw something up quickly. For some reason I was doing x*2+x (which puts the loss as being what you double up, rather than doubling the previous bet). Essentially it was saying "you lost 3 total now, so you need to double that," instead of "you've lost 3 total and it takes 4 to make a profit, so bet 4."

That was a good catch!

Here's the revised version:

1   1
2   3
3   7
4   15
5   31
6   63
7   127
8   255
9   511
10   1023
11   2047
12   4095
13   8191
14   16383
15   32767
16   65535
17   131071
18   262143
19   524287
20   1048575
21   2097151
22   4194303
23   8388607
24   16777215

23 losses = almost 1 BTC.
Isn't it like this or it is some kind of other strategy

1. 1
2. 2
3. 4
4. 8
5. 16
6. 32
7. 64
8. 128
9. 256
10. 512
11. 1024
12. 2048
13. 4096
14. 8192
15. 16384
16. 32768
17. 65536
18. 131072
19. 262144
20. 524288
21. 1048576
22. 2097152
23. 4194304
24. 8388608
25. 16777216
26. 33554432
27. 67108864
28. 134217728       at this stage you are betting 1.34217728BTC and expecting to win 2.68435456BTC (+1 satoshi) so risking 2.68435455BTC for 1 satoshi is ridiculous

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DolanDuck
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May 29, 2014, 01:26:01 PM
 #105

1   1
2   3
3   7
4   15
5   31
6   63
7   127
8   255
9   511
10   1023
11   2047
12   4095
13   8191
14   16383
15   32767
...

I tried Martingale starting from 1 satoshi and had more than one streak of 15+ losses and unfortunately had lost all (what I could affort to lose)

▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄
PRIMEDICE
The Premier Bitcoin Gambling Experience @PrimeDice
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leex1528
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May 29, 2014, 01:40:58 PM
 #106

1   1
2   3
3   7
4   15
5   31
6   63
7   127
8   255
9   511
10   1023
11   2047
12   4095
13   8191
14   16383
15   32767
...

I tried Martingale starting from 1 satoshi and had more than one streak of 15+ losses and unfortunately had lost all (what I could affort to lose)

Yes big losing streaks happen.  First, how many bets did you make, I martingale like until I have 10 wins, usually I win.  But on the plus side 15 losses only get you .00065533 in losses, which is like 40 cents.
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May 29, 2014, 03:09:50 PM
 #107

28. 134217728       at this stage you are betting 1.34217728BTC and expecting to win 2.68435456BTC (+1 satoshi) so risking 2.68435455BTC for 1 satoshi is ridiculous

Well, at this point what people do is say "I already lost x times. There's no way it could happen again!" People don't consider that each result is independent of the previous. If you ran tests of billions of iterations, you would have streaks of thousands of losses pop up. Rare? Yes. But they happen.
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May 29, 2014, 04:25:04 PM
 #108

1. 1
2. 2
3. 4
4. 8
5. 16
6. 32
7. 64
8. 128
9. 256
10. 512
11. 1024
12. 2048
13. 4096
14. 8192
15. 16384
16. 32768
17. 65536
18. 131072
19. 262144
20. 524288
21. 1048576
22. 2097152
23. 4194304
24. 8388608
25. 16777216
26. 33554432
27. 67108864
28. 134217728
28 losses in a row with 49.5% odds is so rare that I am willing to bet it hasn't occurred a single time in the entire history of satoshidice and other gambling sites.
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May 29, 2014, 04:29:15 PM
 #109

1. 1
2. 2
3. 4
4. 8
5. 16
6. 32
7. 64
8. 128
9. 256
10. 512
11. 1024
12. 2048
13. 4096
14. 8192
15. 16384
16. 32768
17. 65536
18. 131072
19. 262144
20. 524288
21. 1048576
22. 2097152
23. 4194304
24. 8388608
25. 16777216
26. 33554432
27. 67108864
28. 134217728
28 losses in a row with 49.5% odds is so rare that I am willing to bet it hasn't occurred a single time in the entire history of satoshidice and other gambling sites.

I also bet that nobody has made 1.35 BTC off of 1sat increases (135,000,000 WINS, so approximately 270,000,000 rolls for a single person). So you're probably right.
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May 29, 2014, 04:31:19 PM
 #110

I also bet that nobody has made 1.35 BTC off of 1sat increases (135,000,000 WINS, so approximately 270,000,000 rolls for a single person). So you're probably right.
Exactly, nobody is stupid enough to play a pure Martingale. Wink
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May 29, 2014, 04:32:55 PM
 #111

1. 1
2. 2
3. 4
4. 8
5. 16
6. 32
7. 64
8. 128
9. 256
10. 512
11. 1024
12. 2048
13. 4096
14. 8192
15. 16384
16. 32768
17. 65536
18. 131072
19. 262144
20. 524288
21. 1048576
22. 2097152
23. 4194304
24. 8388608
25. 16777216
26. 33554432
27. 67108864
28. 134217728
28 losses in a row with 49.5% odds is so rare that I am willing to bet it hasn't occurred a single time in the entire history of satoshidice and other gambling sites.
On Prime dice site one man said that he lost 45 times in a row on 49.5% odds so you lost your bet.

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atc1
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May 29, 2014, 04:34:36 PM
 #112

Using martingale(aka martinfail) guarantees you will lose. Sorry guys, I lost 2.15btc to know it's true, never ever use martingale, for anything.

How long did you bet for, what was your min bet?  Martingale is the absolute best method to use to give you an advantage.

To give you an advantage,yes. But a surefire way to win,no. It's just as easy to lose all your gains in a single round. Eventually,the house wins,but if you know to quit when you're ahead,then it's good.

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May 29, 2014, 04:35:53 PM
 #113

1. 1
2. 2
3. 4
4. 8
5. 16
6. 32
7. 64
8. 128
9. 256
10. 512
11. 1024
12. 2048
13. 4096
14. 8192
15. 16384
16. 32768
17. 65536
18. 131072
19. 262144
20. 524288
21. 1048576
22. 2097152
23. 4194304
24. 8388608
25. 16777216
26. 33554432
27. 67108864
28. 134217728
28 losses in a row with 49.5% odds is so rare that I am willing to bet it hasn't occurred a single time in the entire history of satoshidice and other gambling sites.
On Prime dice site one man said that he lost 45 times in a row on 49.5% odds so you lost your bet.

If it makes anyone feel any better, I've lost 7x in a row at 98.9%. At some point you WILL be the statistic.
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May 29, 2014, 04:42:13 PM
 #114

On Prime dice site one man said that he lost 45 times in a row on 49.5% odds so you lost your bet.
He was lying, guaranteed.
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May 29, 2014, 04:44:27 PM
 #115

Everyone who has been a part of any gambling site must have tried martingale. so i just wanted to know your experience that have u ever gained profit from martingale? or its name should be changed to martinfail?

It works to a point but the house always has the edge. Knowing when to stop betting and walk away to play another day is hard but you'll come out ahead.

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May 29, 2014, 05:36:03 PM
 #116

On Prime dice site one man said that he lost 45 times in a row on 49.5% odds so you lost your bet.
He was lying, guaranteed.
Why would he need to lie about it if people like ranlo lose 7 time in a row with 98.9% odds i believe with no doubts that he lost 45 times on 49.5% odds.

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leex1528
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May 29, 2014, 06:02:46 PM
 #117

On Prime dice site one man said that he lost 45 times in a row on 49.5% odds so you lost your bet.
He was lying, guaranteed.
Why would he need to lie about it if people like ranlo lose 7 time in a row with 98.9% odds i believe with no doubts that he lost 45 times on 49.5% odds.

Screen shots please!  I doubt either has happened, people love to exaggerate a lot when they lose at casinos.  My guess is he lost 25 times, which none the less is still impressive...Haven't seen that before.

I also am guessing you didn't lose 7 times in a row at 98.9%, and where were you playing that at?
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May 29, 2014, 06:10:07 PM
 #118

you're probably right.

losing 25 times in a row is 1 in 33 million chance.
losing 45 times in a row is 1 in 35 TRILLION chance.


f3tus
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May 29, 2014, 06:14:17 PM
 #119

Why would he need to lie about it if people like ranlo lose 7 time in a row with 98.9% odds i believe with no doubts that he lost 45 times on 49.5% odds.
Losing 45 times in a row and starting a bet with 1 satoshi would mean the idiot had 35,184 BTC in his account, and decided to play a Martingale with 1 satoshi!

LOL, think with your head.

Edit: wrong math.
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May 29, 2014, 09:14:08 PM
 #120

Everyone who has been a part of any gambling site must have tried martingale. so i just wanted to know your experience that have u ever gained profit from martingale? or its name should be changed to martinfail?

It works 100% Wink unfortunatelly you except from it something it can't do.

Every betting system for independent events (like throwing dice or flipping coin) doesn't ensure you profit - if it would be so, why would still exist non bancrupt casinos? (simple logic)
It just changes characteristics of propability distribution.

Aka: you can use betting system to get probability 1% in long run while betting (always) on 50% chance (like head/tails) or any change like this. Nothing more, nothing less.

I hope it helps you. Play only for fun - not for profit - or you will lose all Wink
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