leex1528
|
|
May 29, 2014, 12:18:19 PM |
|
It is true that the probably of having 15 consecutive losses is very low, but if you run a bot for hours or days, the probability of having 15 consecutive losses in that tens of thousands of bets would not be small. That is true. But you do not play tens of thousands of bets with my modified Martingale where you switch the wager 10-100x for a few rounds here and there. It's riskier, true, but then again, it takes less bets, so maybe it's not. In either case, it's safer and better than a pure Martingale, which is a guaranteed way to fail. Every method is a guaranteed way to fail. It is 100% luck when you win. Martingale increases the odds for you to win though. But just like every method, the more you play, the more the odds go against you.
|
|
|
|
Remember remember the 5th of November
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1862
Merit: 1011
Reverse engineer from time to time
|
|
May 29, 2014, 12:55:36 PM |
|
Using martingale(aka martinfail) guarantees you will lose. Sorry guys, I lost 2.15btc to know it's true, never ever use martingale, for anything.
|
BTC:1AiCRMxgf1ptVQwx6hDuKMu4f7F27QmJC2
|
|
|
leex1528
|
|
May 29, 2014, 01:02:35 PM |
|
Using martingale(aka martinfail) guarantees you will lose. Sorry guys, I lost 2.15btc to know it's true, never ever use martingale, for anything.
How long did you bet for, what was your min bet? Martingale is the absolute best method to use to give you an advantage.
|
|
|
|
yakuza699
|
|
May 29, 2014, 01:18:06 PM |
|
a few years ago i fucked around with the martingale strategy in sports betting. It started off fine and dandy, made a lot of money over the course of a few months and then quickly shot back to reality over the course of a couple days. I have learned my lesson the hard way. Every so often when i have a lot of break even days i have a little voice in the back of my head telling me "hey if you use martingale you would be making a lot of money and not breaking even." Well fuck that stupid little voice. I learned my lesson and i know now that the voice is just going to break me again.
I've tested martingale in multiple ways. Even going to dice sites and starting off with 1 satoshi, you end up at a Bitcoin+ before the day is over. A lot of people don't consider the real cost when they try to calculate it. You don't just consider the doubled amount. For example, the real cost is (starting with 1 satoshi): 1 1 2 3 3 9 4 27 5 81 6 243 7 729 8 2187 9 6561 10 19683 11 59049 12 177147 13 531441 14 1594323 15 4782969 16 14348907 17 43046721 18 129140163 19 387420489 20 1162261467 So 18 losses = over a Bitcoin already. Only two more after that puts you at an almost 12 BTC loss. And it keeps going up from there. And that's just starting at a single satoshi (1/100,000,000 of a Bitcoin)! Very confused by this, do you know what martingale is? 1. 1 Sat 2. 1+2= 3 Sats 3. 1+2+4 = 7 Sats 4. 1+2+4+8 = 15 Sats 5. 1+2+4+8+16 = 31 Sats 6. 1+2+4+8+16+32= 63 Sats From the pattern you can see it is (2^x)-1 to see how much you have lost in a given amount of rolls. 2^20-1 = 1,048,576 or (.01 roughly) Not sure what kind of betting you are doing though! Lulz, you're right. This is why you don't throw something up quickly. For some reason I was doing x*2+x (which puts the loss as being what you double up, rather than doubling the previous bet). Essentially it was saying "you lost 3 total now, so you need to double that," instead of "you've lost 3 total and it takes 4 to make a profit, so bet 4." That was a good catch! Here's the revised version: 1 1 2 3 3 7 4 15 5 31 6 63 7 127 8 255 9 511 10 1023 11 2047 12 4095 13 8191 14 16383 15 32767 16 65535 17 131071 18 262143 19 524287 20 1048575 21 2097151 22 4194303 23 8388607 24 16777215 23 losses = almost 1 BTC. Isn't it like this or it is some kind of other strategy 1. 1 2. 2 3. 4 4. 8 5. 16 6. 32 7. 64 8. 128 9. 256 10. 512 11. 1024 12. 2048 13. 4096 14. 8192 15. 16384 16. 32768 17. 65536 18. 131072 19. 262144 20. 524288 21. 1048576 22. 2097152 23. 4194304 24. 8388608 25. 16777216 26. 33554432 27. 67108864 28. 134217728 at this stage you are betting 1.34217728 BTC and expecting to win 2.68435456 BTC (+1 satoshi) so risking 2.68435455 BTC for 1 satoshi is ridiculous
|
|
|
|
DolanDuck
|
|
May 29, 2014, 01:26:01 PM |
|
1 1 2 3 3 7 4 15 5 31 6 63 7 127 8 255 9 511 10 1023 11 2047 12 4095 13 8191 14 16383 15 32767 ...
I tried Martingale starting from 1 satoshi and had more than one streak of 15+ losses and unfortunately had lost all (what I could affort to lose)
|
▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄ PRIMEDICE The Premier Bitcoin Gambling Experience @PrimeDice ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
|
|
|
leex1528
|
|
May 29, 2014, 01:40:58 PM |
|
1 1 2 3 3 7 4 15 5 31 6 63 7 127 8 255 9 511 10 1023 11 2047 12 4095 13 8191 14 16383 15 32767 ...
I tried Martingale starting from 1 satoshi and had more than one streak of 15+ losses and unfortunately had lost all (what I could affort to lose)
Yes big losing streaks happen. First, how many bets did you make, I martingale like until I have 10 wins, usually I win. But on the plus side 15 losses only get you .00065533 in losses, which is like 40 cents.
|
|
|
|
ranlo
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1988
Merit: 1007
|
|
May 29, 2014, 03:09:50 PM |
|
28. 134217728 at this stage you are betting 1.34217728BTC and expecting to win 2.68435456BTC (+1 satoshi) so risking 2.68435455BTC for 1 satoshi is ridiculous
Well, at this point what people do is say "I already lost x times. There's no way it could happen again!" People don't consider that each result is independent of the previous. If you ran tests of billions of iterations, you would have streaks of thousands of losses pop up. Rare? Yes. But they happen.
|
|
|
|
f3tus
|
|
May 29, 2014, 04:25:04 PM |
|
1. 1 2. 2 3. 4 4. 8 5. 16 6. 32 7. 64 8. 128 9. 256 10. 512 11. 1024 12. 2048 13. 4096 14. 8192 15. 16384 16. 32768 17. 65536 18. 131072 19. 262144 20. 524288 21. 1048576 22. 2097152 23. 4194304 24. 8388608 25. 16777216 26. 33554432 27. 67108864 28. 134217728
28 losses in a row with 49.5% odds is so rare that I am willing to bet it hasn't occurred a single time in the entire history of satoshidice and other gambling sites.
|
|
|
|
ranlo
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1988
Merit: 1007
|
|
May 29, 2014, 04:29:15 PM |
|
1. 1 2. 2 3. 4 4. 8 5. 16 6. 32 7. 64 8. 128 9. 256 10. 512 11. 1024 12. 2048 13. 4096 14. 8192 15. 16384 16. 32768 17. 65536 18. 131072 19. 262144 20. 524288 21. 1048576 22. 2097152 23. 4194304 24. 8388608 25. 16777216 26. 33554432 27. 67108864 28. 134217728
28 losses in a row with 49.5% odds is so rare that I am willing to bet it hasn't occurred a single time in the entire history of satoshidice and other gambling sites. I also bet that nobody has made 1.35 BTC off of 1sat increases (135,000,000 WINS, so approximately 270,000,000 rolls for a single person). So you're probably right.
|
|
|
|
f3tus
|
|
May 29, 2014, 04:31:19 PM |
|
I also bet that nobody has made 1.35 BTC off of 1sat increases (135,000,000 WINS, so approximately 270,000,000 rolls for a single person). So you're probably right.
Exactly, nobody is stupid enough to play a pure Martingale.
|
|
|
|
yakuza699
|
|
May 29, 2014, 04:32:55 PM |
|
1. 1 2. 2 3. 4 4. 8 5. 16 6. 32 7. 64 8. 128 9. 256 10. 512 11. 1024 12. 2048 13. 4096 14. 8192 15. 16384 16. 32768 17. 65536 18. 131072 19. 262144 20. 524288 21. 1048576 22. 2097152 23. 4194304 24. 8388608 25. 16777216 26. 33554432 27. 67108864 28. 134217728
28 losses in a row with 49.5% odds is so rare that I am willing to bet it hasn't occurred a single time in the entire history of satoshidice and other gambling sites. On Prime dice site one man said that he lost 45 times in a row on 49.5% odds so you lost your bet.
|
|
|
|
atc1
|
|
May 29, 2014, 04:34:36 PM |
|
Using martingale(aka martinfail) guarantees you will lose. Sorry guys, I lost 2.15btc to know it's true, never ever use martingale, for anything.
How long did you bet for, what was your min bet? Martingale is the absolute best method to use to give you an advantage. To give you an advantage,yes. But a surefire way to win,no. It's just as easy to lose all your gains in a single round. Eventually,the house wins,but if you know to quit when you're ahead,then it's good.
|
|
|
|
ranlo
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1988
Merit: 1007
|
|
May 29, 2014, 04:35:53 PM |
|
1. 1 2. 2 3. 4 4. 8 5. 16 6. 32 7. 64 8. 128 9. 256 10. 512 11. 1024 12. 2048 13. 4096 14. 8192 15. 16384 16. 32768 17. 65536 18. 131072 19. 262144 20. 524288 21. 1048576 22. 2097152 23. 4194304 24. 8388608 25. 16777216 26. 33554432 27. 67108864 28. 134217728
28 losses in a row with 49.5% odds is so rare that I am willing to bet it hasn't occurred a single time in the entire history of satoshidice and other gambling sites. On Prime dice site one man said that he lost 45 times in a row on 49.5% odds so you lost your bet. If it makes anyone feel any better, I've lost 7x in a row at 98.9%. At some point you WILL be the statistic.
|
|
|
|
f3tus
|
|
May 29, 2014, 04:42:13 PM |
|
On Prime dice site one man said that he lost 45 times in a row on 49.5% odds so you lost your bet.
He was lying, guaranteed.
|
|
|
|
d2dtk
|
|
May 29, 2014, 04:44:27 PM |
|
Everyone who has been a part of any gambling site must have tried martingale. so i just wanted to know your experience that have u ever gained profit from martingale? or its name should be changed to martinfail?
It works to a point but the house always has the edge. Knowing when to stop betting and walk away to play another day is hard but you'll come out ahead.
|
|
|
|
yakuza699
|
|
May 29, 2014, 05:36:03 PM |
|
On Prime dice site one man said that he lost 45 times in a row on 49.5% odds so you lost your bet.
He was lying, guaranteed. Why would he need to lie about it if people like ranlo lose 7 time in a row with 98.9% odds i believe with no doubts that he lost 45 times on 49.5% odds.
|
|
|
|
leex1528
|
|
May 29, 2014, 06:02:46 PM |
|
On Prime dice site one man said that he lost 45 times in a row on 49.5% odds so you lost your bet.
He was lying, guaranteed. Why would he need to lie about it if people like ranlo lose 7 time in a row with 98.9% odds i believe with no doubts that he lost 45 times on 49.5% odds. Screen shots please! I doubt either has happened, people love to exaggerate a lot when they lose at casinos. My guess is he lost 25 times, which none the less is still impressive...Haven't seen that before. I also am guessing you didn't lose 7 times in a row at 98.9%, and where were you playing that at?
|
|
|
|
jonald_fyookball
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1302
Merit: 1008
Core dev leaves me neg feedback #abuse #political
|
|
May 29, 2014, 06:10:07 PM |
|
you're probably right.
losing 25 times in a row is 1 in 33 million chance. losing 45 times in a row is 1 in 35 TRILLION chance.
|
|
|
|
f3tus
|
|
May 29, 2014, 06:14:17 PM |
|
Why would he need to lie about it if people like ranlo lose 7 time in a row with 98.9% odds i believe with no doubts that he lost 45 times on 49.5% odds.
Losing 45 times in a row and starting a bet with 1 satoshi would mean the idiot had 35,184 BTC in his account, and decided to play a Martingale with 1 satoshi! LOL, think with your head. Edit: wrong math.
|
|
|
|
ondratra
|
|
May 29, 2014, 09:14:08 PM |
|
Everyone who has been a part of any gambling site must have tried martingale. so i just wanted to know your experience that have u ever gained profit from martingale? or its name should be changed to martinfail?
It works 100% unfortunatelly you except from it something it can't do. Every betting system for independent events (like throwing dice or flipping coin) doesn't ensure you profit - if it would be so, why would still exist non bancrupt casinos? (simple logic) It just changes characteristics of propability distribution. Aka: you can use betting system to get probability 1% in long run while betting (always) on 50% chance (like head/tails) or any change like this. Nothing more, nothing less. I hope it helps you. Play only for fun - not for profit - or you will lose all
|
|
|
|
|