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Author Topic: Starting to sense pessimism...  (Read 4995 times)
sgbett
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January 25, 2012, 06:46:41 PM
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Eveofwar
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January 25, 2012, 06:47:50 PM
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So this is just going to be a constant roller coaster ?
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January 25, 2012, 06:55:30 PM
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So this is just going to be a constant roller coaster ?
The joke is that there are completely automatic trading strategies that can make money every oscillation. Sooner or later the "smart money" will start trading those strategies, and then the "big money", and then the sine wave will start to lose some amplitude due to those strategies trading against the wind.

Or at least that's the theory. Maybe there's just not enough smart money to actually make the market smart.

If there is something that will make Bitcoin succeed, it is growth of utility - greater quantity and variety of goods and services offered for BTC. If there is something that will make Bitcoin fail, it is the culture of naive fools and conmen, the former convinced that BTC is a magic box that will turn them into millionaires, and the latter arriving by the busload to devour them.
StewartJ
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January 25, 2012, 07:42:16 PM
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If I can just hold out until we get to "Despair" for the imminent rally...
proudhon
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January 25, 2012, 07:58:50 PM
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If I can just hold out until we get to "Despair" for the imminent rally...

Back to...$5?
StewartJ
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January 25, 2012, 08:05:38 PM
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If I can just hold out until we get to "Despair" for the imminent rally...

Back to...$5?

Not sure what the price will be then, but I will certainly sense despair...
Sargasm
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January 25, 2012, 08:06:50 PM
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Despair: the emotion of hope?
StewartJ
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January 25, 2012, 08:07:47 PM
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I think the call for pessimism is premature.

Would venture to say we are halfway between unease and denial... like in the Housing Market.
sgbett
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January 25, 2012, 08:09:20 PM
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ill agree with that i wasn't sure if the semi permanent starfish was a denial indicator

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RyNinDaCleM
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January 25, 2012, 08:14:15 PM
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If I can just hold out until we get to "Despair" for the imminent rally...

Back to...$5?

If we managed to hit $5, it just might go well into the $4's. The depth is pretty thin below $5.

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January 25, 2012, 08:20:33 PM
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We have these cycles all the time, most of them are small, some of them are medium sized and then we have the rare large ones. The last large one happened from May to December, or something like that.

I don't personally care about what is happening right now, we're in the middle of a small cycle or at best (or at worst, depends on who you're asking) a medium sized one. A medium sized correction is very possible, I knew one was coming at some point but didn't know when, this could be it. Nothing fundamental has happened that would indicate a larger issue so a large cycle can be counted out.

Most likely it's simply a short term game based on pure speculation, people see an opportunity to go down and then they sell and short. A large majority of that money is coming back, simply a little lower. Eventually we reach the point where it'll go up again.

I also believe that the reports on technical analysis given by popular analysts such as S3052 have a significant effect in themselves. This is information that people believe in and thus it's heavily exploited and this is why those reports tend to cause the behaviour they are "predicting". Same applies to the information people get from Bitcoinica, it's exploited all the time.

A good example is the recent public report by S3052 that stated:

"4) A break below 6 - 6.1 $ is expected to lead to further downside down to 4.64 $."

Guess what happened right after, the price was pushed down below $6, mainly because people were either exploiting this statement or believing that someone else will exploit the statement anyway, so the price went down.

After $6 broke it was obvious that a larger dip is imminent. Now it's hard to say what happens, if people are as sheep as I fear they are, it's totally possible that we'll go as low as $4.64. Personally I have one word for all of this and that is:

Bullshit.

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ineededausername
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January 25, 2012, 08:21:24 PM
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No one at all sees the interestingly similar slopes/duration on a log chart that this rally/correction has/will have with the March rally/correction?

I predict a steady price decay in the next month, during which all the bears will be screaming "I TOLD YOU." 

(BFL)^2 < 0
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January 25, 2012, 08:24:12 PM
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proudhon
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January 25, 2012, 08:27:16 PM
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If I can just hold out until we get to "Despair" for the imminent rally...

Back to...$5?

If we managed to hit $5, it just might go well into the $4's. The depth is pretty thin below $5.

No, what I'm saying is that after this correction, we might rally back to $5.
teflone
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You're fat, because you dont have any pics on FB


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January 25, 2012, 08:28:02 PM
 #15

If I can just hold out until we get to "Despair" for the imminent rally...

Back to...$5?

If we managed to hit $5, it just might go well into the $4's. The depth is pretty thin below $5.

No, what I'm saying is that after this correction, we might rally back to $5.


For Canadians by Canadians: Canada's Bitcoin Community - https://www.coinforum.ca/
StewartJ
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January 25, 2012, 08:31:07 PM
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If I can just hold out until we get to "Despair" for the imminent rally...

Back to...$5?

If we managed to hit $5, it just might go well into the $4's. The depth is pretty thin below $5.

No, what I'm saying is that after this correction, we might rally back to $5.




Insert comedic drum roll here...
teflone
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January 25, 2012, 08:33:33 PM
 #17

I found the manipulator...


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SlaveInDebt
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January 25, 2012, 08:38:59 PM
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No one at all sees the interestingly similar slopes/duration on a log chart that this rally/correction has/will have with the March rally/correction?

I predict a steady price decay in the next month, during which all the bears will be screaming "I TOLD YOU." 

 Wink Kiss

"A banker is a fellow who lends you his umbrella when the sun is shining, but wants it back the minute it begins to rain." - Mark Twain
ineededausername
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January 25, 2012, 09:41:36 PM
 #19

No one at all sees the interestingly similar slopes/duration on a log chart that this rally/correction has/will have with the March rally/correction?

I predict a steady price decay in the next month, during which all the bears will be screaming "I TOLD YOU." 

 Wink Kiss

of course, left unsaid is what comes after that Grin

Triple digits coming THIS YEAR to a market near you!

Daytraders: Go long, hourly RSI just reached <30
Short-mid term: Go short
Long term investors: Go long

(BFL)^2 < 0
Oldminer
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January 25, 2012, 09:51:29 PM
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I think your on the ball

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