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Author Topic: Starfish BCB - Loans and Deposits  (Read 56254 times)
PatrickHarnett
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October 10, 2012, 09:26:09 PM
 #581



Out of curiosity, how badly has the GLBSE situation affected your repayment schedule?
I put some of the coins I took out of starfish before it collapsed into GLBSE - probably not an improvement overall  Cheesy

It appears to have screwed things up pretty convincingly.  I was going to compile a table covering things, but text will work just as well as I have had responses (and non-responses) from various people this week.

I had invested >5000 BTC (excluding anything pirate related because that's outside the mandate for Starfish) and have been in communication with some of the issuers this week.  One is straight out of business so despite having one of the best dividend formulas on the market, 1500BTC is effectively gone there.  A couple of others appear to have done their best to also fail (another 600), and I understand there is a recovery effort for one of the other investments that I hold covering 1100BTC.  There's around 1000BTC that still seems supported by decent issuers.  

In the interests of recovering client funds I also went through the bullshit AML process that GLBSE put up yesterday.

The loan book is approximately 8800BTC and broken down as follows:
 - People known to be dodging responsibilities (3): 400BTC
 - People suspected of dodging responsibilities or being slow to payback (7): 1350BTC
 - Tied to sale of another asset - working with client to resolve (1): 800BTC
 - Good people continuing to make repayments (Cool: 1200BTC
 - Accounts that were then tied to Pirate (and also slow) (5): 5000BTC - Most of this is via HK and Nckrazze, but of which I've discussed options with during the past few weeks and is being paid back although slowly.
 - And not counted is an account where the person is probably in prison (that might get collected eventually).
 - So >6k should still be recoverable.

Overall, however, with the demise of different companies on GLBSE and people running from their obligations (defaulting) it looks like the repayment schedule will continue but will face a deficit of about 25%.  That is, there is probably around 9000BTC tied up to cover the 12000BTC outstanding.  This also means I will be making pro-rata payments on all accounts from now on, even if you haven't requested a withdrawal.
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October 11, 2012, 02:50:54 AM
 #582

Sheesh Pat!! I commend your efforts!!!!

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October 11, 2012, 03:18:33 AM
 #583

Sheesh Pat!! I commend your efforts!!!!

Sometimes that's not enough - that's why I've poured a heap of money into this as well as having spent a lot of time extracting coins out of people and will continue to do so.
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October 11, 2012, 09:21:45 AM
 #584

This again, huh?  pirate started like this.  Super helpful, big apologies and promises, the forum heaping praise on him and scorn on doubters.  Then he split with all the money. A month later, he'll get a scammer tag.

You are all going to let it happen again, and you'll be absolutely blown away for the umpteenth time this has happened.  It's as if you have no pattern recognition at all.
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October 11, 2012, 10:03:25 AM
 #585

This again, huh?  pirate started like this.  Super helpful, big apologies and promises, the forum heaping praise on him and scorn on doubters.  Then he split with all the money. A month later, he'll get a scammer tag.

You are all going to let it happen again, and you'll be absolutely blown away for the umpteenth time this has happened.  It's as if you have no pattern recognition at all.
He got money from investors and he claims he has legitimate losses due to loans that went bad, indirect Pirate-related losses, and GLBSE operational stoppage. It's possible he's lying about the extent of his losses, but we all knew that he would eventually sustain those kinds of losses if he wasn't scamming. He is splitting losses from high-risk loans with his investors. Even if he walked away from all his obligations now, it still wouldn't be clear this was a scam. (As opposed to Patrick just being rather naive and causing his equally-foolish investors to suffer heavy losses due to making obviously bad loans.)

In other words, what he is claiming happened is precisely what we all said would happen if he wasn't scamming. Pirate didn't start by claiming to be making high-risk loans. Pirate didn't start by claiming he had suffered losses due to bad loans.


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BorderBits
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October 11, 2012, 03:15:57 PM
 #586

Given the recent information provided by Patrick, I rate his ability to repay AAA-
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October 11, 2012, 04:01:50 PM
 #587

This again, huh?  pirate started like this.  Super helpful, big apologies and promises, the forum heaping praise on him and scorn on doubters.  Then he split with all the money. A month later, he'll get a scammer tag.

You are all going to let it happen again, and you'll be absolutely blown away for the umpteenth time this has happened.  It's as if you have no pattern recognition at all.
Pirate didn't pay anything back, and it was obvious from the start that he had no intention of paying anything back. Patrick has been paying back at a pretty regular rate...

Patrick is realistically guilty of massively understating risk (in the case of both his own fund and his ratings of other funds), but I don't know of any major BTC investments that haven't lost money lately.

Best of luck to patrick in getting this shitstorm sorted out, I've lost somewhere in the region of 80BTC to the GLBSE situation myself  Undecided
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October 11, 2012, 06:56:13 PM
 #588

I noticed Greece was rated BBB- yesterday.  Their bond holders were told to expect a 50% reduction in principal several months ago.
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October 11, 2012, 08:36:42 PM
 #589

If Patrick had only classified his investment thing as a managed hedge/mutual fund, with returns based on his investment skills as opposed to fixed interest "savings account" style returns, none of this would have been a problem. Losses would have had to be taken by the customers instead of Patrick, and his returns would have been consistent with the average hedge fund (lesson: don't invest in hedge funds, people. You'll save time by just flushing your money down the toilet).

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October 11, 2012, 09:21:59 PM
 #590

If Patrick had only classified his investment thing as a managed hedge/mutual fund, with returns based on his investment skills as opposed to fixed interest "savings account" style returns, none of this would have been a problem. Losses would have had to be taken by the customers instead of Patrick, and his returns would have been consistent with the average hedge fund (lesson: don't invest in bitcoins, people. You'll save time by just flushing your money down the toilet).

the "average" hedge fund managed by a well-educated, certified professional typically grow at 3% per year.

Bitcoin "investments" claim to be capable of 5-7% per week, then typically collapse a month later with the 'manager' disappearing with all the 'investors'' money.

Truly, it's the dirty fiat currency that has the problem here.

Although Moody's and S&P were hammered in 2009 for not downgrading US debt sooner, they do a very thorough review of a company's financials  before issuing a rating.  I would be shocked if Patrick's review was more than a couple of PM's.  "Hey man, is your investment going to collapse?"  "No, dude."  "Good enough, AAAA+++ rating for you!"
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October 11, 2012, 10:10:17 PM
 #591

  I would be shocked if Patrick's review was more than a couple of PM's. 

Other than finding a new thread to troll badly, i fear you would be "shocked" if you bothered to read enough to understand the process of credit ratings.

Also, those educated hedge fund guys do a good job at losing value and only a random 1/3rd actually beat a simple index tracker.  If you wanted a nice and safe regulated market, no one would have bothered to come to Bitcoin.  If people like unregulated, wild-west, high stakes than this is the place to be.
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October 11, 2012, 10:17:05 PM
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If Patrick had only classified his investment thing as a managed hedge/mutual fund, with returns based on his investment skills as opposed to fixed interest "savings account" style returns, none of this would have been a problem. Losses would have had to be taken by the customers instead of Patrick, and his returns would have been consistent with the average hedge fund (lesson: don't invest in bitcoins, people. You'll save time by just flushing your money down the toilet).

the "average" hedge fund managed by a well-educated, certified professional typically grow at 3% per year.

Bitcoin "investments" claim to be capable of 5-7% per week, then typically collapse a month later with the 'manager' disappearing with all the 'investors'' money.

Truly, it's the dirty fiat currency that has the problem here.

Although Moody's and S&P were hammered in 2009 for not downgrading US debt sooner, they do a very thorough review of a company's financials  before issuing a rating.  I would be shocked if Patrick's review was more than a couple of PM's.  "Hey man, is your investment going to collapse?"  "No, dude."  "Good enough, AAAA+++ rating for you!"

His ratings were focused on those offering them & not their particular offerings & the first thing to ascertain by him would be a real life ID I assume, with passport, driver's license, SS for US issuers, utilities bills in the same name & all confirmed by a rigorous Skype proof of docs recorded session, for those borrowers who are now in default I expect he would be prepared to release this info to those who lent to them so that ppl can take action against them if they wish otherwise what was the point, I will request this for those who ripped me off soon.

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October 11, 2012, 10:23:17 PM
 #593

If Patrick had only classified his investment thing as a managed hedge/mutual fund, with returns based on his investment skills as opposed to fixed interest "savings account" style returns, none of this would have been a problem. Losses would have had to be taken by the customers instead of Patrick, and his returns would have been consistent with the average hedge fund (lesson: don't invest in bitcoins, people. You'll save time by just flushing your money down the toilet).

the "average" hedge fund managed by a well-educated, certified professional typically grow at 3% per year.
Source?
If the average performance of any of the funds I invest in was that poor I'd have pulled my cash out long ago  Cheesy
PatrickHarnett
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October 11, 2012, 11:01:45 PM
 #594

If Patrick had only classified his investment thing as a managed hedge/mutual fund, with returns based on his investment skills as opposed to fixed interest "savings account" style returns, none of this would have been a problem. Losses would have had to be taken by the customers instead of Patrick, and his returns would have been consistent with the average hedge fund (lesson: don't invest in bitcoins, people. You'll save time by just flushing your money down the toilet).

the "average" hedge fund managed by a well-educated, certified professional typically grow at 3% per year.
Source?
If the average performance of any of the funds I invest in was that poor I'd have pulled my cash out long ago  Cheesy

It was a recent article I read and I've hunted for it since I read it because it was so startling - I was surprised it was that terrible (I'll hunt for it again).  I knew most funds made the owners quite wealthy even with a 1% fee, but the after tax (real, not nominal) returns for many people is negative.
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October 11, 2012, 11:06:54 PM
 #595

If Patrick had only classified his investment thing as a managed hedge/mutual fund, with returns based on his investment skills as opposed to fixed interest "savings account" style returns, none of this would have been a problem. Losses would have had to be taken by the customers instead of Patrick, and his returns would have been consistent with the average hedge fund (lesson: don't invest in bitcoins, people. You'll save time by just flushing your money down the toilet).

the "average" hedge fund managed by a well-educated, certified professional typically grow at 3% per year.
Source?
If the average performance of any of the funds I invest in was that poor I'd have pulled my cash out long ago  Cheesy

It was a recent article I read and I've hunted for it since I read it because it was so startling - I was surprised it was that terrible (I'll hunt for it again).  I knew most funds made the owners quite wealthy even with a 1% fee, but the after tax (real, not nominal) returns for many people is negative.
Over what time frame though? I mean if you looked at performance 2007-2009 or some window like that you'd probably get pretty poor results  Tongue
PatrickHarnett
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October 11, 2012, 11:30:53 PM
 #596

Going off topic, the analysis of the US stock markets that suggest they out perform bank deposits is also massively skewed by the start time.  During the 1920's and 1930's there were some huge movements.  If you started from 1950 (say) you get quite a different result.  Also, you need to really compare those returns against something like treasury bonds to account for the underlying (approximation) of risk free rate.

This link has some interesting observations about the long-flat periods  http://observationsandnotes.blogspot.co.nz/2008/10/100-years-of-stock-market-history.html

Still, holding a bucket of stocks like ArthurAnderson, Enron, MCIWorld would have seen some great paper returns (until the fraud crashed them).  More recently AIG, (insert name)-investment bank, and GM probably should have been left to fail.  Still, there are some other darlings of the markets that are based on niche technology and hype which could fall from grace much faster than their ascendancy.


And, the reference I was looking for earlier: http://articles.marketwatch.com/2012-10-10/investing/34350951_1_fund-managers-active-managers-stock-funds
In the five years through June, the study reported, slightly fewer than one-third of domestic equity funds beat the total return of the Standard & Poor’s 1500 index.
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October 11, 2012, 11:33:33 PM
 #597

If Patrick had only classified his investment thing as a managed hedge/mutual fund, with returns based on his investment skills as opposed to fixed interest "savings account" style returns, none of this would have been a problem. Losses would have had to be taken by the customers instead of Patrick, and his returns would have been consistent with the average hedge fund (lesson: don't invest in hedge funds, people. You'll save time by just flushing your money down the toilet).
I 100% agree. But I don't think this is because Patrick was scamming, I think it was because Patrick was naive. This should have been just as obvious to Patrick's customers as it was to Patrick. Having been there, I can assure you that it certainly seemed that both sides were equally deluded and both sides were equally willfully blind.

I don't have any problem with foolish Patrick sharing his losses with his foolish customers. Hopefully, they will all learn a lesson. Some of his customers did make outrageous profits and it's not at all unfair for them to bear some of the losses.

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October 12, 2012, 12:02:19 AM
 #598

This again, huh?  pirate started like this.  Super helpful, big apologies and promises, the forum heaping praise on him and scorn on doubters.  Then he split with all the money. A month later, he'll get a scammer tag.

You are all going to let it happen again, and you'll be absolutely blown away for the umpteenth time this has happened.  It's as if you have no pattern recognition at all.
He got money from investors and he claims he has legitimate losses due to loans that went bad, indirect Pirate-related losses, and GLBSE operational stoppage. It's possible he's lying about the extent of his losses, but we all knew that he would eventually sustain those kinds of losses if he wasn't scamming. He is splitting losses from high-risk loans with his investors. Even if he walked away from all his obligations now, it still wouldn't be clear this was a scam. (As opposed to Patrick just being rather naive and causing his equally-foolish investors to suffer heavy losses due to making obviously bad loans.)

In other words, what he is claiming happened is precisely what we all said would happen if he wasn't scamming. Pirate didn't start by claiming to be making high-risk loans. Pirate didn't start by claiming he had suffered losses due to bad loans.



I take it you're the one writing the "I'm sorry, and thank you PatrickBarnett" thread, then?
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October 12, 2012, 12:06:19 AM
 #599

This again, huh?  pirate started like this.  Super helpful, big apologies and promises, the forum heaping praise on him and scorn on doubters.  Then he split with all the money. A month later, he'll get a scammer tag.

You are all going to let it happen again, and you'll be absolutely blown away for the umpteenth time this has happened.  It's as if you have no pattern recognition at all.
Pirate didn't pay anything back, and it was obvious from the start that he had no intention of paying anything back. Patrick has been paying back at a pretty regular rate...

Patrick is realistically guilty of massively understating risk (in the case of both his own fund and his ratings of other funds), but I don't know of any major BTC investments that haven't lost money lately.

Best of luck to patrick in getting this shitstorm sorted out, I've lost somewhere in the region of 80BTC to the GLBSE situation myself  Undecided

Yup, You are all really going to do this yet again.  All this time, and all these scams, yet you have managed to learn nothing at all.

See you in the "defaulting, but I have a gun" thread.
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October 12, 2012, 12:11:37 AM
 #600

If Patrick had only classified his investment thing as a managed hedge/mutual fund, with returns based on his investment skills as opposed to fixed interest "savings account" style returns, none of this would have been a problem. Losses would have had to be taken by the customers instead of Patrick, and his returns would have been consistent with the average hedge fund (lesson: don't invest in bitcoins, people. You'll save time by just flushing your money down the toilet).

the "average" hedge fund managed by a well-educated, certified professional typically grow at 3% per year.
Source?
If the average performance of any of the funds I invest in was that poor I'd have pulled my cash out long ago  Cheesy

It was an article I read for economics class years ago.  Safe growth for a hedge fund is 3% per year (above inflation), but the article's subject was this wildcat manager growing at 5-6% because he was shorting poorly-managed stocks, which is like the Wall Street equivalent of check-raising in poker.

Patrick, I find it hilarious that you're talking smack about professional hedge fund managers while your various ponzi schemes and 'investments' collapse.  The only index you're beating is the 'still posting, hasn't disappeared with the money yet' index.  This isn't a 'wild west' economy, it's a cargo cult.  Foreign capital funds are "high stakes", giving money to children in a sandbox pretending to be a stock exchange is just foolish.
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