Monero (XMR) Speculation thread

[nutildah]

Why are you using average % daily change to measure volatility?

Why not use the more conventional measure of variance?

You mean Standard Deviation, right? That's what I did.

[nutildah]

Is it just me guys, or is this retort pretty pathetic?

Its just you.

Sorry, the opinion of a DRK shill like yourself is pretty irrelevant here.

I hold exactly 5 DRKs right now.

[statdude]

Funny how I have the ability to get all of your panties in a bunch yet I couldn't possibly give a shit about what you do outside this thread.

Incorrect, you do actually care, or you wouldn't have deleted my posts in your thread.

I'm cool as a cucumber and can go all day with you. It's actually pretty enjoyable, since you have zero debate skills and I've ripped apart virtually everything you've said.

[nutildah]

I'm cool as a cucumber and can go all day with you. It's actually pretty fun, since I've ripped apart virtually everything you've said.

LOL. Except the main crux of my argument.

[statdude]

I'm cool as a cucumber and can go all day with you. It's actually pretty fun, since I've ripped apart virtually everything you've said.

LOL. Except the main crux of my argument.

What, the volatility thing?

I never attempted to disagree with that. But thanks for admitting you've been wrong in every other measurable way, not to mention, a douchebag to boot.

+1 for me again.

[nioc]

2. I checked your post history and would like to ask why you so bitter against many people?

Because many people such as yourself get your rocks off by making the world a shittier place for a living.

You are a Monero shill through and through. It is your job to get people to waste their money on this useless bullshit coin. And you can fool most of the people but you're not fooling me because I have an actual understanding and working knowledge of the terms you just throw around to impress others.

And that's how I can tell you are 100% bullshit.

Now have a nice day.

It's not like I need to defend rpietila because he does a fine job for himself.  I do find it strange however that your criticisms are diametrically opposed to reality. 

Also note that my interest in Monero started before rpietilla's obvious activity and stems from other sources.  I do appreciate his support and information but I don't take that info as "word" but instead as a piece of the puzzle.

[nutildah]

It's not like I need to defend rpietila because he does a fine job for himself. 

Really? Where is he then? He's been strangely absent during this entire time he could have been defending himself.

I do find it strange however that your criticisms are diametrically opposed to reality. 

What is your basis for making this statement? You think you can just lob this out there and I will accept it and let it stand as a rational explanation on its own accord?

Also note that my interest in Monero started before rpietilla's obvious activity and stems from other sources.  I do appreciate his support and information but I don't take that info as "word" but instead as a piece of the puzzle.

Its a piece of a different puzzle, it won't fit in your puzzle because its not the right size. Trying to jam it in there will only result in an incomplete puzzle.

[drawingthesun]

1. Volatility is the variance of price over time. Now, since Bitcoin has had 10,000%+ runs during its history along with -93% declines, and Monero has had neither, the burden of mathematical/statistical proof is on you. Please make your calculations.

Here you go. I compared BTC to XMR in 2 ways, the first is a lifetime-to-lifetime comparison and the second runs from 5/20/14 - 8/12/14 (I couldn't find price data for XMR before 5/20).

The average % daily change for BTC across its lifetime is 0.84%, with a standard deviation of 0.0713 (this is the "volatility" number).

The average % daily change for XMR across its lifetime (starting on 5/20) is 1.16%, with a standard deviation of 0.1671, or 2.34x greater volatility than BTC.

The average % daily change for BTC in the same time period as XMR (from 5/20 to 8/12) was 0.33% with a st. dev. of 0.0277, which is 6x less volatile than XMR.

So no matter how you want to cut the numbers, you're wrong.

2. I checked your post history and would like to ask why you so bitter against many people?

Because many people such as yourself get your rocks off by making the world a shittier place for a living.

You are a Monero shill through and through. It is your job to get people to waste their money on this useless bullshit coin. And you can fool most of the people but you're not fooling me because I have an actual understanding and working knowledge of the terms you just throw around to impress others.

And that's how I can tell you are 100% bullshit.

Now have a nice day.

Are you calculating Monero to USD? If not then it'll be a flawed  comparison.  You can get the usd value by converting the bitcoin value to usd for that exact time.

Also I would like rpeitila to comment on this, perhaps he was wrong? I would like to see his calculation that led him to his conclusion.

[nioc]

It's not like I need to defend rpietila because he does a fine job for himself. 

Really? Where is he then? He's been strangely absent during this entire time he could have been defending himself.

I do find it strange however that your criticisms are diametrically opposed to reality. 

What is your basis for making this statement? You think you can just lob this out there and I will accept it and let it stand as a rational explanation on its own accord?

You mean like you lobbed it out without rational explanation?  There is a thread of his in Off Topic.  You should check it out.

Also note that my interest in Monero started before rpietilla's obvious activity and stems from other sources.  I do appreciate his support and information but I don't take that info as "word" but instead as a piece of the puzzle.

Its a piece of a different puzzle, it won't fit in your puzzle because its not the right size. Trying to jam it in there will only result in an incomplete puzzle.

That's not how the brain works, it works holographically. 

I play poker and I have learned things from bad players as not everything they do is bad.  I can not play like the best poker players and if I try I lose.  Instead I need to incorporate their strategies into my perspective.

[nutildah]

Are you calculating Monero to USD? If not then it'll be a flawed  comparison. 

Why? There is no such thing as a Monero/USD trading pair. It doesn't exist in nature.

You can get the usd value by converting the bitcoin value to usd for that exact time.

OK I can do this for you too, but I can tell you now it won't matter, Monero is still more volatile than bitcoin. I'll have to do it tomorrow though, unless you want to do it first. Be my guest.

[drawingthesun]

Are you calculating Monero to USD? If not then it'll be a flawed  comparison. 

Why? There is no such thing as a Monero/USD trading pair. It doesn't exist in nature.

You can get the usd value by converting the bitcoin value to usd for that exact time.

OK I can do this for you too, but I can tell you now it won't matter, Monero is still more volatile than bitcoin. I'll have to do it tomorrow though, unless you want to do it first. Be my guest.

Feel free to correct me, but basing the Monero volatility off the btc/xmr price will simply cause Monero to constantly change based on the changing price of bitcoin. Even if Monero were stuck at $2 it'll look volatile because of Bitcoins swings.

Your calculation takes the bitcoin to Monero pair into account and I understand that there isn't a USD pair for comparison, although a USD price could be calculated, the trouble is many people may be buying and selling based on its USD value even if it has to be calculated by the trader. 

I can't do any comparison myself right now because I'm on the train to work.

In just feel it's not a good analysis because bitcoin it's calculated pegged to USD and Monero is calculated pegged to Bitcoin, I think it'll be impossible for any coin pegged to a currency to be less volatile than that currency.

[nutildah]

In just feel it's not a good analysis because bitcoin it's calculated pegged to USD and Monero is calculated pegged to Bitcoin, I think it'll be impossible for any coin pegged to a currency to be less volatile than that currency.

I understand where you're coming from but the fact is you cannot exchange USD for Monero so a USD/XMR pairing doesn't mean much. Why shouldn't I also have to calculate bitcoin into euros, pounds, dinars, yen and everything else and then make a mass average for Monero?

[drawingthesun]

In just feel it's not a good analysis because bitcoin it's calculated pegged to USD and Monero is calculated pegged to Bitcoin, I think it'll be impossible for any coin pegged to a currency to be less volatile than that currency.

I understand where you're coming from but the fact is you cannot exchange USD for Monero so a USD/XMR pairing doesn't mean much. Why shouldn't I also have to calculate bitcoin into euros, pounds, dinars, yen and everything else and then make a mass average for Monero?

In that case all this talk about Monero volatility is a bit baseless isn't it? I mean I can't see how Monero could be less volatile than bitcoin considering it's being based off of it.

I personally have been making all my trades taking into account the price of USD and see the lack of USD pair being a slight inconvenience. If Monero becomes some default coin for the wealthy and black market then thinking in terms of USD makes more sense.

[saddambitcoin]

i'm sick of this guy who has been around for about 4 months genuinely thinking we're trying to scam people out of money by promoting monero. on the contrary, we're trying to help the world achieve monetary privacy and be honest about it, no need for trust.

it's like the movie THEY LIVE...you try to put the fucking sunglasses on someone and they refuse!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9rrgJXfLns

[nutildah]

In that case all this talk about Monero volatility is a bit baseless isn't it?

Well not really; I just based it out pretty thoroughly I thought.

I was simply refuting Reptilia's claim that monero is less volatile than bitcoin by using tangible evidence. I do apologize for getting out of hand even though its probably too late for that.

I mean I can't see how Monero could be less volatile than bitcoin considering it's being based off of it.

Thank you. The only coin less volatile than bitcoin is realcoin. I think that's what its called. Its the coin that is always pegged to the dollar.

Litecoin, NXT, Blackcoin and a handful of other dollar-backed cryptos have a chance at being less volatile than bitcoin but the majority of their trading is still bitcoin-backed, so that is highly unlikely.

I personally have been making all my trades taking into account the price of USD and see the lack of USD pair being a slight inconvenience.

I don't see the point of this unless you are working under an assumption that monero will fall in value when bitcoin goes up and vice versa, which isn't what is happening.

If Monero becomes some default coin for the wealthy and black market then thinking in terms of USD makes more sense.

Yes I agree especially if you can get that XMR/USD exchange going.

i'm sick of this guy who has been around for about 4 months genuinely thinking we're trying to scam people out of money by promoting monero. on the contrary, we're trying to help the world achieve monetary privacy and be honest about it, no need for trust.

Don't worry, I'm done here. If your coin achieves what you aspire for it, I will applaud you for your efforts and post a picture of me eating my hat and washing it down with a glass of pee.

it's like the movie THEY LIVE...you try to put the fucking sunglasses on someone and they refuse!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9rrgJXfLns

Yeah except I hope deep down you realize I'm Rowdy Roddy Piper in that scene.

 

[rpietila]

It's not like I need to defend rpietila because he does a fine job for himself.

Really? Where is he then? He's been strangely absent during this entire time he could have been defending himself.

Sleeping the usual ~8 hours per night.

1. Volatility is the variance of price over time. Now, since Bitcoin has had 10,000%+ runs during its history along with -93% declines, and Monero has had neither, the burden of mathematical/statistical proof is on you. Please make your calculations.

Here you go. I compared BTC to XMR in 2 ways, the first is a lifetime-to-lifetime comparison and the second runs from 5/20/14 - 8/12/14 (I couldn't find price data for XMR before 5/20).

The average % daily change for BTC across its lifetime is 0.84%, with a standard deviation of 0.0713 (this is the "volatility" number).

The average % daily change for XMR across its lifetime (starting on 5/20) is 1.16%, with a standard deviation of 0.1671, or 2.34x greater volatility than BTC.

The average % daily change for BTC in the same time period as XMR (from 5/20 to 8/12) was 0.33% with a st. dev. of 0.0277, which is 6x less volatile than XMR.

So no matter how you want to cut the numbers, you're wrong.

I have no intention to cut the numbers here, since that would go against the definition of volatility I myself introduced. Thinking about it again, that measure (daily variance of price change) couldn't be more meaningless for anything but whatever - you won this round. Now welcome to the winners' club and buy Monero!

[Johnny Mnemonic]

Here you go. I compared BTC to XMR in 2 ways, the first is a lifetime-to-lifetime comparison and the second runs from 5/20/14 - 8/12/14 (I couldn't find price data for XMR before 5/20).

The average % daily change for BTC across its lifetime is 0.84%, with a standard deviation of 0.0713 (this is the "volatility" number).

The average % daily change for XMR across its lifetime (starting on 5/20) is 1.16%, with a standard deviation of 0.1671, or 2.34x greater volatility than BTC.

The average % daily change for BTC in the same time period as XMR (from 5/20 to 8/12) was 0.33% with a st. dev. of 0.0277, which is 6x less volatile than XMR.

So no matter how you want to cut the numbers, you're wrong.

This is a load of crap and you know it. Comparisons have to be made across a common metric (any measure of value that is not one of the subjects being compared. Regardless whether or not trading pairs exist, you have to establish an independent, single measure of value or the comparison is bullshit). Not only are you failing to do that, but you're using one subject as a base for making calculations on the other. Either you're very stupid or intentionally deceitful. You decide.

[stellarman]

I must say that my enjoyment of this thread has increased immensely as a result of putting five or six of the most offensive trolls on "ignore".

Try it. You'll like it.

If enough people ignore them, and enough people resist the temptation to reply, they may eventually go away.

[rpietila]

This is a load of crap and you know it. Comparisons have to be made across a common metric (any measure of value that is not one of the subjects being compared. Regardless whether or not trading pairs exist, you have to establish an independent, single measure of value or the comparison is bullshit). Not only are you failing to do that, but you're using one subject as a base for making calculations on the other. Either you're very stupid or intentionally deceitful. You decide.

Nah, leave her alone. She is right. The "volatility" is typically the variance in daily returns, and with that metric, XMR has a higher one. What I was trying to say was not best expressed with the word. Let's move on.

[saddambitcoin]

Depth of XMR buy orders has increased by 100+ today, currently sitting at 390 BTC.

Prepare for liftoff.

Update: Now at 425 BTC.