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Author Topic: Monero (XMR) Speculation thread  (Read 49757 times)
rpietila
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August 18, 2014, 04:19:56 PM
 #761

Historically anything below 0.003 is a buy, because prices never stayed below for significant amount of time.

After Monero hit the exchange, its volume-weighted average has been below 0.003 for exactly 12 days. (Out of 92.)
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August 18, 2014, 07:40:07 PM
 #762

Congratulations to Monero for overtaking DRK and achieving #1 anonymous cryptocurrency status today. May there be many milestones to come!

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August 18, 2014, 07:46:02 PM
 #763

Congratulations to Monero for overtaking DRK and achieving #1 anonymous cryptocurrency status today. May there be many milestones to come!

I'm confused. DRK is reported at 391K on bitcoinwisdom. XMR is reported at 310K. DRK has 4.5m coins which is more than XMR, so it also much be higher on market cap.

By what measure do you think XMR has overtaken DRK (besides potential -- we all agree on that certainly).

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August 18, 2014, 07:48:52 PM
 #764

Congratulations to Monero for overtaking DRK and achieving #1 anonymous cryptocurrency status today. May there be many milestones to come!

I'm confused. DRK is reported at 391K on bitcoinwisdom. XMR is reported at 310K. DRK has 4.5m coins which is more than XMR, so it also much be higher on market cap.


Mintcoin has more coins than monero and darkcoin put together, yet its market cap is small. Number of coins has nothing to do with market cap.

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August 18, 2014, 07:49:25 PM
 #765

Congratulations to Monero for overtaking DRK and achieving #1 anonymous cryptocurrency status today. May there be many milestones to come!

I'm confused. DRK is reported at 391K on bitcoinwisdom. XMR is reported at 310K. DRK has 4.5m coins which is more than XMR, so it also much be higher on market cap.

By what measure do you think XMR has overtaken DRK (besides potential -- we all agree on that certainly).



OK sorry I may be jumping the gun a bit. I was just comparing the price of 1 XMR to 1 DRK. DRK is still higher at the moment (0.0039) but it has been falling so hard while Monero gains more momentum every day. We are getting closer...

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August 18, 2014, 07:50:20 PM
 #766

Congratulations to Monero for overtaking DRK and achieving #1 anonymous cryptocurrency status today. May there be many milestones to come!

I'm confused. DRK is reported at 391K on bitcoinwisdom. XMR is reported at 310K. DRK has 4.5m coins which is more than XMR, so it also much be higher on market cap.


Mintcoin has more coins than monero and darkcoin put together, yet its market cap is small. Number of coins has nothing to do with market cap.

My second sentence was contingent on my first. Higher price per coin along with (equal or) higher number of coins = higher market cap.

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August 18, 2014, 10:02:33 PM
Last edit: August 18, 2014, 10:28:37 PM by ArticMine
 #767

BTC is again recovered. Of course you can throw in figures such as $200, $300, talk is cheap. But BTC is not going there. Last year same thing - the lowest bottom was seen long before the final capitulation.

If you check the situation of Monero at the exchange of your choice, there is not much to buy at these levels. Perhaps people are realizing that double hammering an unrelated coin to Bitcoin is not the road to riches.

There are two issues here with XMR during what may in fact be the last legs of a XBT bear market.

1) First all alt-coins are highly correlated with XBT, since XBT has the lions share of the crypto currency market capitalization and the alt-coins are priced by the market as riskier versions of XBT. This is true during both bull and bear markets. Individual alt-coins, at this stage, are most certainly not unrelated or uncorrelated to XBT. In fact the exact opposite is the case here.  A properly weighted index of alt-coins would likely perform as a leveraged XBT position magnifying losses during a bear market and gains during a bull market. The trading history of LTC, NMC and PPC in terms of XBT have already demonstrated this during the last two XBT bull and bear markets.

2) Individual alt-coins are of course going to behave very differently. Those that have a good or fair amount of merit are likely to take a comparably smaller loss with respect to XBT during the XBT bear market and make larger gains during the subsequent XBT bull market while the true shit/scam coins are likely to get wiped out during XBT bear market or at best end up at the bottom of the rankings.

For the above reasons purchasing XMR with XBT in this market may make sense, not only because XMR's intrinsic merits, but also as a leveraged play on XBT, since it is highly likely that the XMR/XBT rate will be considerably higher than now during the next XBT bull market. The advantage of this is that since there is no debt involved one can hold the XMR position for as long as it takes without having to be concerned about margin calls. One interesting side effect of this is that it can also also be beneficial, depending on the jurisdiction and individual circumstances, from a tax planning point of view.

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
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August 19, 2014, 09:15:37 AM
 #768

Hi folks!

I got sick of all the altcoin pump and dumps around and dismissed all altcoins for 6 months and focused on BTC. But now i feel/see an increasing demand in alts with anonymity as a key feature.

I am sure you have done a lot more reading / researching on this matter.

What makes monero stand out in comparison to other alts like DRK for example?

cheers!

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August 19, 2014, 10:47:59 AM
 #769

Hi folks!

I got sick of all the altcoin pump and dumps around and dismissed all altcoins for 6 months and focused on BTC. But now i feel/see an increasing demand in alts with anonymity as a key feature.

I am sure you have done a lot more reading / researching on this matter.

What makes monero stand out in comparison to other alts like DRK for example?

cheers!



DRK relies on masternodes, which is as centralized as it gets. Monero doesnt need masternodes.

That one is pretty much enough but there are many pages with the whole list...
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August 19, 2014, 11:32:42 AM
Last edit: August 19, 2014, 11:49:41 AM by aminorex
 #770

to answer the question of camu6:  monero leads among its peers by a factor of 32 or more, in terms of liquidity.  that advantage is almost impossible to overcome.  app-like features don't help liquidity - they create frictions that resist pure monetary liquidity.  the peers i consider are fairly launched, honest, open-source coins with sound cryptographic foundations and competent developers that have sufficient mathematical and (game theoretical cum social) team credibility and (monetary) value-propositions to be viable long-terms stores of wealth.

you will find that the median quality of discussion in monero threads is indicative of user and development communities with a sense of purpose responsibily, and relative security in their positions, with a congenial humor.  i hope that it will add more entrepreneurs as it grows, while demonstrating a resistance to scams, as might be characteristic of an intelligent and educated, skeptical community.

in monero these features are built upon the foundation of a heavily reviewed code base and a development culture of transparency and non-ideological, low-drama meritocracy, with a very strong, almost axiomatic, commitment to its social contract.  development has a history of solid steady progress, prioritized suitably to the long-term development of robust technical foundations for core features necessary to a usable private liquidity vehicle, and while the players have been dynamic, the development progress and direction has been stable and coherent, indicating a productive homeostasis.

Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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August 19, 2014, 03:06:04 PM
 #771

BTC is again recovered. Of course you can throw in figures such as $200, $300, talk is cheap. But BTC is not going there. Last year same thing - the lowest bottom was seen long before the final capitulation.

If you check the situation of Monero at the exchange of your choice, there is not much to buy at these levels. Perhaps people are realizing that double hammering an unrelated coin to Bitcoin is not the road to riches.

There are two issues here with XMR during what may in fact be the last legs of a XBT bear market.

1) First all alt-coins are highly correlated with XBT, since XBT has the lions share of the crypto currency market capitalization and the alt-coins are priced by the market as riskier versions of XBT. This is true during both bull and bear markets. Individual alt-coins, at this stage, are most certainly not unrelated or uncorrelated to XBT. In fact the exact opposite is the case here.  A properly weighted index of alt-coins would likely perform as a leveraged XBT position magnifying losses during a bear market and gains during a bull market. The trading history of LTC, NMC and PPC in terms of XBT have already demonstrated this during the last two XBT bull and bear markets.

2) Individual alt-coins are of course going to behave very differently. Those that have a good or fair amount of merit are likely to take a comparably smaller loss with respect to XBT during the XBT bear market and make larger gains during the subsequent XBT bull market while the true shit/scam coins are likely to get wiped out during XBT bear market or at best end up at the bottom of the rankings.

For the above reasons purchasing XMR with XBT in this market may make sense, not only because XMR's intrinsic merits, but also as a leveraged play on XBT, since it is highly likely that the XMR/XBT rate will be considerably higher than now during the next XBT bull market. The advantage of this is that since there is no debt involved one can hold the XMR position for as long as it takes without having to be concerned about margin calls. One interesting side effect of this is that it can also also be beneficial, depending on the jurisdiction and individual circumstances, from a tax planning point of view.

I always enjoy your well thought out posts. I'm curious what you mean by this.
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August 19, 2014, 03:52:14 PM
 #772

snip

I always enjoy your well thought out posts. I'm curious what you mean by this.

he probably is referring to the fact that you can buy and sell on polo without any personal information given out... i.e. only those who really really like paying taxes are going to pay the cap gains on this exchange.

Bro, do you even blockchain?
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August 19, 2014, 05:14:34 PM
Last edit: August 19, 2014, 05:53:50 PM by ArticMine
 #773

... One interesting side effect of this is that it can also also be beneficial, depending on the jurisdiction and individual circumstances, from a tax planning point of view.

I always enjoy your well thought out posts. I'm curious what you mean by this.

It comes down minimizing the upfront realized and therefore taxable capital gains on the sale of the XBT in order to purchase XMR. I am going to use Canada as an example since this is the jurisdiction I am taxable on; however this principle will likely apply to other jurisdictions. A purchase of XMR with XBT is treated by the Canada Revenue Agency as a sale of XBT for CAD followed immediately by a purchase of XMR with CAD. The deemed amount of CAD is determined by the fair market value of the XBT in terms of CAD at the time of the purchase of XMR with XBT. For a given XMR/XBT exchange rate it is advantageous from a tax point of view if the XBT/CAD rate is low. Granted this leads to a lower cost basis of the XMR and consequently a higher capital gain when the XMR are sold; however if the XMR are held for the medium to long term there can be real value in the tax deferral. I have recently being purchasing XMR with XBT; however I also had to sell some XBT for CAD in order to cover the tax liability mentioned above and factor in this additional cost in terms of XBT, in order to determine the risk to potential reward of the XMR purchase. This is particularly an issue for medium to long term holders as opposed to day traders.

I must emphasize that it is never a good idea to enter into a trade or business deal with the objective of generating a tax loss, since more often than not this is equivalent to entering into a trade or business deal with the objective of loosing money! In this case however it makes business sense to purchase XMR with XBT when XBT/CAD is low since this can lead to a lower XMR/XBT rate.  


Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
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August 19, 2014, 05:15:18 PM
 #774

Yes, alts are correlated with BTC.  Ideal, is to find one which correlates strongly with the upside and poorly or negatively with the downside.  XMR appears to be closer to that ideal than the broader alt market.

BTC correlates to the commodity complex over near term frames.  That makes it inverse to the dollar.  In addition there is a downward bias due to unallocated emission coin sales.  Meanwhile, BTC is building upward pressure due to exponential fundamentals.  Eventually, the near-term attractor is overwhelmed by the accumulated pressure.  Like supersaturated solution which has not nucleated, the near-term trend persists until some potentiating event causes the understanding to crystallize in common knowledge that the price is wrong.  The market attempts to correct, but momentum factors overwhelm reason, greed overcomes fear, and a substantial overshoot occurs.  Fear spreads until impulsive upward movements are consistently sold, and profit-taking leads to an overshoot of the retracement, which oscillates around the new market-clearing level, in accord with the underlying exponential trends.

The general sense of observers has been that alts lag the upside, and overshoot the reversal. I'd love to have more detailed color on that process.  I can imagine things, but prefer to collect views and interpretations before solidifying my own.

Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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August 19, 2014, 05:32:58 PM
 #775

My latest analysis on this XBT - alt-coin correlation is based on the data for LTC, NMC, PPC and possibly DOGE referenced in this post. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=702140.msg8386146#msg8386146.

Edit: Just load the charts and take a close look at the dates.  Wink

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
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August 19, 2014, 05:46:00 PM
 #776

What about FCN (FantomCoin?) they came up with the merge mining tech first afaik. I've got like 100 of these. Should I hodl, sell? I just have them resting in an exchange. Imo it's undervalued and may go up along with Monero once people realize Monero's potential and it goes trendy specially in i2p and tor.

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August 19, 2014, 05:57:15 PM
 #777

What about FCN (FantomCoin?) they came up with the merge mining tech first afaik. I've got like 100 of these. Should I hodl, sell? I just have them resting in an exchange. Imo it's undervalued and may go up along with Monero once people realize Monero's potential and it goes trendy specially in i2p and tor.

In general I don't believe that merged mined coins can have any real value because they lack scarcity.

I can, possibly, think of one exception to this. If a merged mine coin was some an extreme positive black swan that it managed to gain huge value based on network effect alone, it would become so dominant that it would overshadow the parent coin. At that point it would effectively switch to regular mining (merged mining would still exist but everybody would be mining for the daughter coin, and the parent would be the throw-away instead of vice-versa).

So, perhaps, merged mining could be a bootstrap method to eventually being a (regular mined) major coin. If you think FCN will do that, then it would be a good long term investment. Otherwise it is a shitcoin that might have pumps every now and then but no real long term value.


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August 19, 2014, 08:50:50 PM
 #778

Slowly grinding up! First resistance is at 0.00336.

"I don't see nothin wrong, with a little bump n grind" - Monero

Now it's time for the fun to begin.

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August 19, 2014, 09:41:19 PM
 #779

Slowly grinding up! First resistance is at 0.00336.

"I don't see nothin wrong, with a little bump n grind" - Monero

Now it's time for the fun to begin.

Please for the love of all that is good and holy let it finally be time...
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August 19, 2014, 10:36:44 PM
 #780

bought xmr today.

 Smiley
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