Monero (XMR) Speculation thread

[aminorex]

Yes, alts are correlated with BTC.  Ideal, is to find one which correlates strongly with the upside and poorly or negatively with the downside.  XMR appears to be closer to that ideal than the broader alt market.

BTC correlates to the commodity complex over near term frames.  That makes it inverse to the dollar.  In addition there is a downward bias due to unallocated emission coin sales.  Meanwhile, BTC is building upward pressure due to exponential fundamentals.  Eventually, the near-term attractor is overwhelmed by the accumulated pressure.  Like supersaturated solution which has not nucleated, the near-term trend persists until some potentiating event causes the understanding to crystallize in common knowledge that the price is wrong.  The market attempts to correct, but momentum factors overwhelm reason, greed overcomes fear, and a substantial overshoot occurs.  Fear spreads until impulsive upward movements are consistently sold, and profit-taking leads to an overshoot of the retracement, which oscillates around the new market-clearing level, in accord with the underlying exponential trends.

The general sense of observers has been that alts lag the upside, and overshoot the reversal. I'd love to have more detailed color on that process.  I can imagine things, but prefer to collect views and interpretations before solidifying my own.

[ArticMine]

My latest analysis on this XBT - alt-coin correlation is based on the data for LTC, NMC, PPC and possibly DOGE referenced in this post. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=702140.msg8386146#msg8386146.

Edit: Just load the charts and take a close look at the dates. 

[giveBTCpls]

What about FCN (FantomCoin?) they came up with the merge mining tech first afaik. I've got like 100 of these. Should I hodl, sell? I just have them resting in an exchange. Imo it's undervalued and may go up along with Monero once people realize Monero's potential and it goes trendy specially in i2p and tor.

[smooth]

What about FCN (FantomCoin?) they came up with the merge mining tech first afaik. I've got like 100 of these. Should I hodl, sell? I just have them resting in an exchange. Imo it's undervalued and may go up along with Monero once people realize Monero's potential and it goes trendy specially in i2p and tor.

In general I don't believe that merged mined coins can have any real value because they lack scarcity.

I can, possibly, think of one exception to this. If a merged mine coin was some an extreme positive black swan that it managed to gain huge value based on network effect alone, it would become so dominant that it would overshadow the parent coin. At that point it would effectively switch to regular mining (merged mining would still exist but everybody would be mining for the daughter coin, and the parent would be the throw-away instead of vice-versa).

So, perhaps, merged mining could be a bootstrap method to eventually being a (regular mined) major coin. If you think FCN will do that, then it would be a good long term investment. Otherwise it is a shitcoin that might have pumps every now and then but no real long term value.

[saddambitcoin]

Slowly grinding up! First resistance is at 0.00336.

"I don't see nothin wrong, with a little bump n grind" - Monero

Now it's time for the fun to begin.

[blaaaaacksuit]

Slowly grinding up! First resistance is at 0.00336.

"I don't see nothin wrong, with a little bump n grind" - Monero

Now it's time for the fun to begin.

Please for the love of all that is good and holy let it finally be time...

[600watt]

bought xmr today.

 

[dnaleor]

bought xmr today.

 

My parents bought XMR today

[aminorex]

Any rational basis to estimate the top of this major run?

My thought is that the recent low ebb was a major bottom, the first time we truly ran out of coins to sell, because the selling was so aggressive.  Since the previous monthly high was 0058, within a general pattern of monthly peaks, it seems we should pass 0058 this month, to set a pattern of higher highs.  Otherwise, we haven't really broken the downtrend since listing, and as we just reached a major bottom, we are more likely to establish a new uptrend than not.

However, since the bottom took so very long to form, it may be that it will not be until mid-September that we form a solid new local high, above 0058.  Time will tell.  I have no basis to estimate the timing any better than that.

[Anotheranonlol]

Any rational basis to estimate the top of this major run?

The sky is the limit. I'm calling 0.09 as a bear minimum.

[aminorex]

there are offers at the top of the book for 35k XMR if anyone wants liquidity

[saddambitcoin]

I expect the downtrend will now continue until everyone decides it has gone far enough and immense buying will ensue. If the pattern continues, the next rally will happen around August 20th 2014.

Looks like my call was 1 day late! I'd like to give everyone a pat on the back if they held strong...I really hope for your sake you did. Otherwise buy back soon.

[saddambitcoin]

Any rational basis to estimate the top of this major run?

My thought is that the recent low ebb was a major bottom, the first time we truly ran out of coins to sell, because the selling was so aggressive.  Since the previous monthly high was 0058, within a general pattern of monthly peaks, it seems we should pass 0058 this month, to set a pattern of higher highs.  Otherwise, we haven't really broken the downtrend since listing, and as we just reached a major bottom, we are more likely to establish a new uptrend than not.

However, since the bottom took so very long to form, it may be that it will not be until mid-September that we form a solid new local high, above 0058.  Time will tell.  I have no basis to estimate the timing any better than that.

I really found it interesting how there were 200,000 XMR for sale just recently on Poloniex...then about 70,000 xmr were consumed in the past few days without any increase in the buy depth (less than 200 btc). Just now is the first major support at 0.00358.

[camu6]

Hi folks!

I got sick of all the altcoin pump and dumps around and dismissed all altcoins for 6 months and focused on BTC. But now i feel/see an increasing demand in alts with anonymity as a key feature.

I am sure you have done a lot more reading / researching on this matter.

What makes monero stand out in comparison to other alts like DRK for example?

cheers!

DRK relies on masternodes, which is as centralized as it gets. Monero doesnt need masternodes.

That one is pretty much enough but there are many pages with the whole list...

to answer the question of camu6:  monero leads among its peers by a factor of 32 or more, in terms of liquidity.  that advantage is almost impossible to overcome.  app-like features don't help liquidity - they create frictions that resist pure monetary liquidity.  the peers i consider are fairly launched, honest, open-source coins with sound cryptographic foundations and competent developers that have sufficient mathematical and (game theoretical cum social) team credibility and (monetary) value-propositions to be viable long-terms stores of wealth.

you will find that the median quality of discussion in monero threads is indicative of user and development communities with a sense of purpose responsibily, and relative security in their positions, with a congenial humor.  i hope that it will add more entrepreneurs as it grows, while demonstrating a resistance to scams, as might be characteristic of an intelligent and educated, skeptical community.

in monero these features are built upon the foundation of a heavily reviewed code base and a development culture of transparency and non-ideological, low-drama meritocracy, with a very strong, almost axiomatic, commitment to its social contract.  development has a history of solid steady progress, prioritized suitably to the long-term development of robust technical foundations for core features necessary to a usable private liquidity vehicle, and while the players have been dynamic, the development progress and direction has been stable and coherent, indicating a productive homeostasis.

thanks for your replies

[dEBRUYNE]

26k XMR buy wall @  0.00358. Also the total ask dropped to 124k, which was around 200k in the recent downtrend I recall

[rpietila]

26k XMR buy wall @  0.00358. Also the total ask dropped to 124k, which was around 200k in the recent downtrend I recall

The bids, asks and walls outside the current market (more than 10k xmr away) matter nothing.

The recent buyer who bid the market up 10% and set a huge wall to defend the gains and buy more, is very meaningful. If the wall does not budge, it will probably never get filled. But it may be that a dumper feels this is the way to get rid of the coins at a good price, in which case it would get sold into, triggering a fall but solidifying the economy (stronger hands).

Also, in a more insidious level, this might be an accumulator whose market idea is to give the market hope, then sell to his own wall in a repeating sequence while getting also others to sell and set up an avalanche back to the 3 area where he could buy more. But I think the market is too tapped out for that. The last volume to buy was when defending 334, and the dumper smashed us all. But see - we are already ahead!!

The developments just now are difficult to interpret, but my call that bottom would be felt last Sunday is still in force. (Some may confirm that I laid out my prediction already a week in advance, but then it was not public yet.)

[dEBRUYNE]

26k XMR buy wall @  0.00358. Also the total ask dropped to 124k, which was around 200k in the recent downtrend I recall

The bids, asks and walls outside the current market (more than 10k xmr away) matter nothing.

The recent buyer who bid the market up 10% and set a huge wall to defend the gains and buy more, is very meaningful. If the wall does not budge, it will probably never get filled. But it may be that a dumper feels this is the way to get rid of the coins at a good price, in which case it would get sold into, triggering a fall but solidifying the economy (stronger hands).

Also, in a more insidious level, this might be an accumulator whose market idea is to give the market hope, then sell to his own wall in a repeating sequence while getting also others to sell and set up an avalanche back to the 3 area where he could buy more. But I think the market is too tapped out for that. The last volume to buy was when defending 334, and the dumper smashed us all. But see - we are already ahead!!

The developments just now are difficult to interpret, but my call that bottom would be felt last Sunday is still in force. (Some may confirm that I laid out my prediction already a week in advance, but then it was not public yet.)

Thanks for the insight! Wall seems to be real as there is being sold into, it's now @ 0.00361. Probably just a big XMR holder pushing up to price for his own good. Personally I don't think its an accumulator and that the market was oversold @ 0.0029. The seller already sold through 0.00334, but I think he ran out of coins @ 0.0029 and there were no other sellers to back him up..

[nakaone]

lol that manipulation - let us see how it works out

[rpietila]

Now there seems to be a lot of manipulation.

- If you want to remain sane, look only at the daily VWAP. They tell that the bottom was reached Sunday, and since that, it has been going up daily.

- If you want to make money, make markets (putting both bid and ask orders a little bit away from the spot). This way the manipulators' volatility becomes your gain.

[dEBRUYNE]

There is already over 9,000 XMR infront of the wall! Bids are building up nice. This is the true trend reversal we are seeing.