rpietila Altcoin Observer

[giveBTCpls]

rpietila or anyone that's holding XMR, can you give me some trading advice on this?

I have around 60 XMR, I bought some at 70K (yes panic buy, I thought it was going to replace DRK prices, and I still think it will but not that quick..) then I bought some at like 40K too.
Should I hold until around 90, then sold and buy back at a 60K correction?
Should I just get the coins out of the exchange (Poloniex) and cold storage them on my wallet?
If I do this to, I don't feel like it will be a quantity high enough to deliver me decent gains, so I would ideally like to try to get more XMR in small increases as I sell during the (I hope) what I think will be peaks. I've observed in most altcoins after a 40K increase or so, there is a correction that lasts a couple days or sometimes weeks.

[1715213100]

1715213100

[rethink-your-strategy]

*snipped dirvine's nonsense*

I know you were just quoting dirvine, but shit, if he can't get basic crap to work after 8 years it may be time to give up.

http://bitcoinpete.com/2014/04/20/the-brokenness-of-maidsafe/

http://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/appcoins-are-snake-oil/

[illodin]

Anyone here have opinions on Syscoin? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=587080.0

[dga]

Anyone here have opinions on Syscoin? https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=587080.0

I'm of the opinion that its authors should learn the proper use of "its" vs "it's".  

But, more seriously, their "presale" (just the 15%, not the rest) is roughly equivalent in size to the total number of coins that will be mined in the first 240 days of mining.

Might be fun to mine, but the people who buy it on the market will be the suckers, as usual.

[devphp]

The only exchanges this has no effect on is decentralized exchanges, they could care less.
By the way, there is no XMR<->NXT gateway on NXT AE yet, a profit opportunity for XMR believers.

Surprising. Might be a nice way to make some extra money if XMR keeps growing.

Well, for a gateway keeper there is an opportunity to make money regardless of what the price is doing, the gateway keeper charges 0.5% (arbitrary but reasonable fee) on all deposits and redemptions. The gateway keeper just needs initial supply of XMRs to act as the first market maker, but later other XMR holders would deposit into the gateway to add to liquidity of the asset.
Here is an example of how Qora gateway is set up:
https://nxtforum.org/assets-board/qora-on-nxt-asset-exchange/

Am I right that something similar can be also realized on Counterparty decentralized exchange?
https://wiki.counterparty.co/w/Assets

Sure, it can.

[dunchy]

http://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/appcoins-are-snake-oil/

Great link ! 

I just wasted 2 hours of my time going through all StorJ traces on web... I'll just skipe that... I mean 10000BTC IPO. It's not even funny, it's ridiculous.

I think there is a great need for decentralized encrypted storage, but it's sad how greed destroys good ideas.

[hdbuck]

how about documentcoin?
http://www.wired.com/2014/07/document-coin/
i found this reputation-based thing quite interesting as it redefines our approach to money

[fluffypony]

http://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/appcoins-are-snake-oil/

Great link ! 

I just wasted 2 hours of my time going through all StorJ traces on web... I'll just skipe that... I mean 10000BTC IPO. It's not even funny, it's ridiculous.

I think there is a great need for decentralized encrypted storage, but it's sad how greed destroys good ideas.

If you're interested in decentralised, encrypted storage, then Tahoe-LAFS already does this. And if the communications layer is an issue, it's perfectly usable over I2P. The only thing Tahoe-LAFS lacks are dead simple end-user tools, but they'll come with time. The core of the application works, and it works extremely well.

[aminorex]

how about documentcoin?
http://www.wired.com/2014/07/document-coin/
i found this reputation-based thing quite interesting as it redefines our approach to money

Yes, it does.  As such it is unsuitable to the uses for which we use money.  It is suited to some other category of uses, perhaps.

[aminorex]

http://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/appcoins-are-snake-oil/

That is a really good read.  I have expressed similar ideas here in the past, but this addresses the topic in a new light, and at greater depth.  Much appreciated.

[aminorex]

rpietila or anyone that's holding XMR, can you give me some trading advice on this?

I have around 60 XMR, I bought some at 70K (yes panic buy, I thought it was going to replace DRK prices, and I still think it will but not that quick..) then I bought some at like 40K too.
Should I hold until around 90, then sold and buy back at a 60K correction?
Should I just get the coins out of the exchange (Poloniex) and cold storage them on my wallet?
If I do this to, I don't feel like it will be a quantity high enough to deliver me decent gains, so I would ideally like to try to get more XMR in small increases as I sell during the (I hope) what I think will be peaks. I've observed in most altcoins after a 40K increase or so, there is a correction that lasts a couple days or sometimes weeks.

My experience in trying to guide others in trading, is that even when I am exactly right, and do really well with the same strategy that I suggested to them, they tend to lose.  If I am less than perfectly correct, or if I find it necessary to adapt my strategy due to exigent circumstances, even if I do well, they lose -- worse.  And if I am wrong, they tend to do horribly badly.   For this reason, I think it is usually against my interest and the interest of those I might otherwise assist, to suggest trading strategies.  I will still provide estimates and predictions, but not strategies.  Clever people will devise their own strategies, and give my predictions appropriate weight, and do better than if I try to help them by overspecifying, and less clever people, well, I might manage funds for them, but I won't advise them willingly.

David Latapie has a low-risk strategy, something like selling 20% every time price doubles, which is pretty infallible in an exponentially rising trend, and which is described in depth in another thread.  Risto has a thread about bitcoin which is similar.

I just tell people to hold, and continue to buy, at a fixed regular interval, spending a fixed amount of their local currency each time, regardless of the price.  This is almost impossible to mess up.  The result is that when price is low, you get more than when price is high, so that unless price collapses, when you need to sell, the price is very likely to be higher than your average price.  In XMR, I might add that buying more sooner, and waiting as long as possible to sell, is likely to serve you well.  Trading is at least 2:3 a losing bet.  Relatively few people make gains on daytrading.  In XMR it is in many ways more difficult than in other instruments.

Don't invest more than you can afford to leave idle long enough to reap a significant gain.  Don't sell at a lower price.  If you feel compelled by the price to buy or to sell, it probably means you're about to get torn to pieces.  Don't even look at it if price alone is going to lead you to buy high or to sell low.

What I definitely should not tell you is that I tend to think it is going for a top around 0068 over the next few days.  I am personally inclined to hold as much as I can, until it looks toppy near that price, or some higher price, then reduce by 10% or so, and hope to recover those XMR below 0050.  If I told you that, you would probably suffer the same sort of losses that others have when trying to implement my advice. 

[smooth]

http://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/appcoins-are-snake-oil/

That is a really good read.  I have expressed similar ideas here in the past, but this addresses the topic in a new light, and at greater depth.  Much appreciated.

As a funding source, I entirely agree. Nearly all if not all of these IPOs, presales, premines, etc. are nothing more than thinly disguised rip offs.

However, I'm not sure that the concept of a cleanly-launched appcoin is inherently a bad one. The reason being there is no obvious way for decentralized trustless network to access any coin other than its own. This was one of Satoshi's insights, and why he created a new coin (Bitcoin) instead of simply having the blockchain trade dollars (after all, his main innovation was solving the Byzantine generals problem, and that applies, in principle, equally to a distributed ledger of dollar transactions).

There might be some way for such a distributed network to access Bitcoins as part of its operation (for example using some form of cryptography where a majority of the nodes on the network need to approve each external transaction), but I don't see where anyone has clearly described a method for doing that, much less demonstrated one.

If you want a network where distributed mining is done by rewarding nodes for storing files or some other useful operation, it needs to offer that reward in the form of new coins, whose scarcity and other properties is wholly described and controlled within the network itself.

If true, this contradicts the notion (of which Daniel Krawisz is a highly vocal supporter, and it is helpful to read his writings with that in mind) of a single dominant coin in favor of the model of multiple coexisting coins with different attributes and uses. In the latter case the market will reject "useless" coins but accept "useful" ones, with the total number of accepted coins determined by the number of such distinct applications.

He acknowledges this in his comments about why bitcoin can survive in competition with the dollar: It offers a compelling technological advantage. A coin that supports distributed trustless file storage (something bitcoin can't do, at least not natively) may likewise offer a compelling technological advantage over both bitcoin and the dollar.

Until the blatant rip-off attempts are shaken out of the market and replaced with cleaner open source projects the same things (some forks, some clones, some reimplementations, and some distinct approaches that end up addressing the same end-user need in some different way) without the pump-and-dump aspect of it, we won't know how this really works out.

[Este Nuno]

What do people think about the possibility of anonymous transactions in a currency based on Bitcoin technology as opposed to the brand new CN ring signature method?

Possible, but harder? Or just too much effort? Or not possible realistically at all?

[onemorebtc]

What do people think about the possibility of anonymous transactions in a currency based on Bitcoin technology as opposed to the brand new CN ring signature method?

Possible, but harder? Or just too much effort? Or not possible realistically at all?

if you speak of something like coinjoin: i believe it is only a matter of time until somebody develops a wallet which offers something like "dezentralized coinjoin" (sry... just loving this buzzword)

[rethink-your-strategy]

What do people think about the possibility of anonymous transactions in a currency based on Bitcoin technology as opposed to the brand new CN ring signature method?

Possible, but harder? Or just too much effort? Or not possible realistically at all?

if you speak of something like coinjoin: i believe it is only a matter of time until somebody develops a wallet which offers something like "dezentralized coinjoin" (sry... just loving this buzzword)

CoinJoin has issues, and should not be relied on for anonymous transactions:

http://www.coindesk.com/blockchains-sharedcoin-users-can-identified-says-security-expert/

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/27rsv8/confirmed_blockchaininfo_shared_coin_is_broken/

[illodin]

What do people think about the possibility of anonymous transactions in a currency based on Bitcoin technology as opposed to the brand new CN ring signature method?

Possible, but harder? Or just too much effort? Or not possible realistically at all?

XC is a bitcoin based PoS coin, and the dev says their implementation is 100% anonymous & bullet-proof:

and this isn't our last layer, we have 1 more layer of blockchain privacy coming out as well with REV3, and at that stage it will be 100% anonymous & bullet-proof when combined with all the layers we have built

[Este Nuno]

What do people think about the possibility of anonymous transactions in a currency based on Bitcoin technology as opposed to the brand new CN ring signature method?

Possible, but harder? Or just too much effort? Or not possible realistically at all?

if you speak of something like coinjoin: i believe it is only a matter of time until somebody develops a wallet which offers something like "dezentralized coinjoin" (sry... just loving this buzzword)

I mean anything really. CoinJoin, CoinSwap, other theoretical things I might not know about. I'm curious about how realistic it is for a non-CN coin to achieve a similar level anonymity.

[Este Nuno]

What do people think about the possibility of anonymous transactions in a currency based on Bitcoin technology as opposed to the brand new CN ring signature method?

Possible, but harder? Or just too much effort? Or not possible realistically at all?

XC is a bitcoin based PoS coin, and the dev says their implementation is 100% anonymous & bullet-proof:

and this isn't our last layer, we have 1 more layer of blockchain privacy coming out as well with REV3, and at that stage it will be 100% anonymous & bullet-proof when combined with all the layers we have built

Thanks. I'll go check it out.

[rpietila]

I started a new Monero Economics thread for the reason that I am very interested in it but don't find the time for reading the generic Monero thread, or always even this thread...

[rethink-your-strategy]

XC is a bitcoin based PoS coin, and the dev says their implementation is 100% anonymous & bullet-proof:

and this isn't our last layer, we have 1 more layer of blockchain privacy coming out as well with REV3, and at that stage it will be 100% anonymous & bullet-proof when combined with all the layers we have built

Ah so the dev said and therefore it must be true.

lol.