rpietila Altcoin Observer

[slapper]

So Monero Jesus's magic number of .00365 was broken. What happens now? I think any analysis involving what amounts to arbitrarily chosen magic numbers is pure bullshit.

Common knowledge. This along with aminorex's "mining costs" BS. But they are successfully building the XMR army with each buy in at any given price. That is how it works.

For more lulz, visit Polo trollbox and watch the puppets parroting.

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[drawingthesun]

So Monero Jesus's magic number of .00365 was broken.

Ok.

What happens now?

Some people hold, some buy, some dump.

The price moves up, or down, or stays the same.

I think any analysis involving what amounts to arbitrarily chosen magic numbers is pure bullshit.

I'm personally not a fan of technical analysis. I know rpietila has made millions from technical analysis, but most of us wont. I think day trading is for most of us, very close to hitting red or black on a roulette wheel.

[drawingthesun]

So Monero Jesus's magic number of .00365 was broken. What happens now? I think any analysis involving what amounts to arbitrarily chosen magic numbers is pure bullshit.

Common knowledge. This along with aminorex's "mining costs" BS. But they are successfully building the XMR army with each buy in at any given price. That is how it works.

For more lulz, visit Polo trollbox and watch the puppets parroting.

Let's make it simpler then.

If Monero ends up as a 50,000 bitcoin coin in two years, then buy around 0.0033ish, expect 0.01 if you can imagine a price of 150,000 bitcoin in two years.

I'm buying not because of Jesus (I invested well before rpietila talked about Monero) but because the development of this coin is strong and I am investing based on Monero replacing 3rd place minimum, and taking out Litecoin as a bonus.

Expect a price of 0.02 if Monero does take Litecoins place.

If you're buying because of magic numbers and technical analysis, I would suggest withdrawing your Monero and Bitcoin and try the local casino.

This coin will not do well if half the investors lose their money to large whale pumps.

[nakaone]

looking here and in the polo trollbox it looks like a concerted action.

but maybe I should join irc to see if there is something fundamentally wrong.

[slapper]

So Monero Jesus's magic number of .00365 was broken. What happens now? I think any analysis involving what amounts to arbitrarily chosen magic numbers is pure bullshit.

Common knowledge. This along with aminorex's "mining costs" BS. But they are successfully building the XMR army with each buy in at any given price. That is how it works.

For more lulz, visit Polo trollbox and watch the puppets parroting.

Let's make it simpler then.

If Monero ends up as a 50,000 bitcoin coin in two years, then buy around 0.0033ish, expect 0.01 if you can imagine a price of 150,000 bitcoin in two years.

I'm buying not because of Jesus (I invested well before rpietila talked about Monero) but because the development of this coin is strong and I am investing based on Monero replacing 3rd place minimum, and taking out Litecoin as a bonus.

Expect a price of 0.02 if Monero does take Litecoins place.

If you're buying because of magic numbers and technical analysis, I would suggest withdrawing your Monero and Bitcoin and try the local casino.

This coin will not do well if half the investors lose their money to large whale pumps.

Did you mean to quote me? haha yes I don't go by magic numbers. I was merely saying it was widely known that TA won't work as effectively at this stage of the game. Supply and demand, simple.

The anon market is fragmented. If XMR was the only anon coin, maybe things would be different. This is also why psy ops are being played on sellers and buyers of various coins, including this one. Pulling magic numbers are part of this deal and just that.

[binaryFate]

Expect a price of 0.02 if Monero does take Litecoins place.

In fact if you run the numbers, if the XMR market cap (with total supply) equates one day the one of LTC as it is currently, the price would be ~0.06 BTC / XMR.
This is not an upper bound, as litecoin has nothing to provide over bitcoin.

[r0ach]

For more lulz, visit Polo trollbox

Bologniex trollbox is what makes trading crypto worthwhile.  It's bout 50 guys trying to rub two nickels together while talking about how Vladimir Putin is making Myriadcoin the new reserve currency.

How to turn a nice idea into a pile of shit in 4 hours:

http://minichain.info/address/CNCzEBdvxzKSsGGdeqdGv17zuyWLeyAFvw

Yea, that's quite a nice highly optimized GPU miner you have there.  This is like when Maxcoin launched with a couple guys having Nvidia miners on day 1 mining 5000x faster than everyone else.

XCN price is a train wreck waiting to happen until there's a long and reasonable explanation about that address.

That 0.00365 was broken, means that the uptrend that started July 13 in Poloniex when the price was 0.002315, is likely ended.

This is easily explainable by CPU coins not being able to achieve effective distribution to enough parties (miners), alongside the other possible issues that are up in the air with Monero about bloating and what have you.

What is the fully diluted market cap at present? (of XCN)

(18.4 billion * coin price)

When I did my rough math calculating if there was any profit to be made (XCN), I think my figures were it was the equivalent of Dogecoin being around 120 Satoshi already.  As a few other people have said, the price is pretty damn high for a freshly launched coin and will most likely see a nice plunge before it goes anywhere.  The issues with people having hidden GPU miners and getting enormous amounts for possible dumps to oblivion is also problematic.  

All you really have to do is look at precedent we already have for coins where any hidden GPU miners are involved.  Every single one of those coins had apocalyptic price crashes from the initial price.  The coin is a complete gamble at the moment.  This concludes the XCN r0ach report.

[uvt9]

The issues with people having hidden GPU miners and getting enormous amounts for possible dumps to oblivion is also problematic.

I have same feelings that there might be private GPU mining XCN since day 1. I started solo mining Monero on 7th day and was able to find 4 blocks in 2 days with my computer running 8-core Xeon E5, but till now i have found nothing with XCN despite the fact that i have been solo mining it since first hour !

Private GPU miner is extremely harmful for the economy, XCN community should get a public GPU miner ASAP.

[DoubleSwapper]

Do you see Monero as a buy right now? I've got my eyes on monero since some time but due to inexperience in the altcoin market and unwillingness to trade on these wild west altcoin exchanges I have refrained from buying so far. The fundamentals look solid to me aside from the blockchain bloat issue.

I thought about entering when XMR was at $2.5 the day before yesterday because I missed my chance when it was at $1.7 before but since then it has almost dropped 20 %. Why? Is there a specific problem right now?
In case I buy in I think about holding for some time because of the longer term upward potential I see with this coin. What's the easiest and most secure way to hold Monero? I've check but there seems to be nothing like a paper wallet. Can anybody point me to the safest way to hold XMR for somebody who is not extremely tech savvy and uses windows?
Iirc there was not even a windows gui wallet for xmr in the beginning, but this has changed, right?

EDIT: I've found the tutorial. https://monerotalk.org/t/bounty-create-a-useful-tutorial-on-how-to-setup-monero-closed/13/8
Wow, yeah, that's going to take me a while.

[uvt9]

What's the easiest and most secure way to hold Monero? I've check but there seems to be nothing like a paper wallet. Can anybody point me to the safest way to hold XMR for somebody who is not extremely tech savvy and uses windows?

when you first create your address, you will be given 24-word seed (similar to Electrum wallet for Bitcoin) which act as your private key.

the alternative way is to backup your *.keys file (which contain your encrypted private key)

Iirc there was not even a windows gui wallet for xmr in the beginning, but this has changed, right?

There is at least 2 GUI for Monero, but they was developed by other members of community, not official one. I heard that official GUI will combine both daemon and simplewallet into one executable binary (need some dev to confirm this)

[illodin]

All you really have to do is look at precedent we already have for coins where any hidden GPU miners are involved.  Every single one of those coins had apocalyptic price crashes from the initial price.  The coin is a complete gamble at the moment.  This concludes the XCN r0ach report.

This time it will be different.

Private GPU miner is extremely harmful for the economy, XCN community should get a public GPU miner ASAP.

Noo.. it's a way to pay that small group of display driver fiddling nerds the BTC they deserve for their skillz. Over and over again.

10 release/find a coin with a new exotic PoW algo
20 create optimized miner
30 mine shitloads
40 sell miner
50 dump coins
60 goto 10

[rpietila]

Do you see Monero as a buy right now?

The average cost basis of Monero holders is BTC0.00421 currently. That means that people are on average 17% underwater. No significant group with significantly cheaper coins exist - only 30% have bought in cheaper than the current price.

When assessing if something is a "buy right now", I would say that no much further dumping is likely.

[dunchy]

How to turn a nice idea into a pile of shit in 4 hours:

http://minichain.info/address/CNCzEBdvxzKSsGGdeqdGv17zuyWLeyAFvw

Yea, that's quite a nice highly optimized GPU miner you have there.  This is like when Maxcoin launched with a couple guys having Nvidia miners on day 1 mining 5000x faster than everyone else.

XCN price is a train wreck waiting to happen until there's a long and reasonable explanation about that address.

All you really have to do is look at precedent we already have for coins where any hidden GPU miners are involved.  Every single one of those coins had apocalyptic price crashes from the initial price.  The coin is a complete gamble at the moment.  This concludes the XCN r0ach report.

Having GPU miner as part of the release bundle at very launch has to be mandatory for coin to be considered as "fairly" launched. CPU2GPU ratio is irrelevant. Even if it is 1:1 it simply has to be released immediately.

[itod]

Having GPU miner as part of the release bundle at very launch has to be mandatory for coin to be considered as "fairly" launched. CPU2GPU ratio is irrelevant. Even if it is 1:1 it simply has to be released immediately.

I disagree. We are eagerly awaiting for a coin that would *never* have a GPU miner, only CPU. There are people working on this, and Cuckoo Cycle looks the most promising. First coin which achieves this may be a revolution, with millions of individual miners finally being able to get involved in cryptocurrency.

[dga]

How to turn a nice idea into a pile of shit in 4 hours:

http://minichain.info/address/CNCzEBdvxzKSsGGdeqdGv17zuyWLeyAFvw

Yea, that's quite a nice highly optimized GPU miner you have there.  This is like when Maxcoin launched with a couple guys having Nvidia miners on day 1 mining 5000x faster than everyone else.

XCN price is a train wreck waiting to happen until there's a long and reasonable explanation about that address.

All you really have to do is look at precedent we already have for coins where any hidden GPU miners are involved.  Every single one of those coins had apocalyptic price crashes from the initial price.  The coin is a complete gamble at the moment.  This concludes the XCN r0ach report.

Having GPU miner as part of the release bundle at very launch has to be mandatory for coin to be considered as "fairly" launched. CPU2GPU ratio is irrelevant. Even if it is 1:1 it simply has to be released immediately.

Or have an emission curve with a slow, flat initial period before ramping up to real.

Imagine if XMR's curve had looked like:

days 0-30:  1 xmr/block
days 31-90:  1 + 16 * (day-30)/60) xmr/block
days 91 onwards:  using the existing XMR mechanism

You'd have a flat 1 xmr/block initial period, followed by a linear ramp-up to full rate over the next two months, and then the long-term slowly decreasing function.

(The first time I saw something like this was Gatra's launch of Riecoin, which was incredibly fair in that regard, but he did it over a day or two instead of doing it over three months, as a mechanism not to guard against fast miners, but to ensure that word got to spread about the coin before the mining *really* started.)

It's like having a testnet available, but with a little money involved so that it still pays for people to develop the fast miners early, and to create opportunities for them to leak out and someone to open source them.

[dga]

Having GPU miner as part of the release bundle at very launch has to be mandatory for coin to be considered as "fairly" launched. CPU2GPU ratio is irrelevant. Even if it is 1:1 it simply has to be released immediately.

I disagree. We are eagerly awaiting for a coin that would *never* have a GPU miner, only CPU. There are people working on this, and Cuckoo Cycle looks the most promising. First coin which achieves this may be a revolution, with millions of individual miners finally being able to get involved in cryptocurrency.

The botnets indeed eagerly await this.  I'm pretty sure this is a philosophically wrong goal, but we can debate that another time.

(n.b. -- I think there are GREAT uses for functions that have rough speed parity across hardware, but it's more from the perspective of things like key derivation, which is what scrypt was originally intended as, and not mining.)

And let's wait to decide about Cuckoo Cycle.  I haven't even started on the design of how I'd do it on the GPU -- I'm still trying to solidify some of the algorithmic issues behind the mining process before I try to take more of tromp's money.  We're still doing some back and forth about the time/memory tradeoffs, and I don't think the improvements are done yet:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=707879.40

The most important thing to learn from Cuckoo Cycle is that he's doing it *right* -- he's treating his proposed proof-of-work in the same way professionals treat proposals for encryption or hash algorithms by publishing a clear spec and implementation, soliciting comments, and even funding (from his own pocket, no less) further evaluation and analysis.  BEFORE it's used in a coin.

[itod]

Having GPU miner as part of the release bundle at very launch has to be mandatory for coin to be considered as "fairly" launched. CPU2GPU ratio is irrelevant. Even if it is 1:1 it simply has to be released immediately.

I disagree. We are eagerly awaiting for a coin that would *never* have a GPU miner, only CPU. There are people working on this, and Cuckoo Cycle looks the most promising. First coin which achieves this may be a revolution, with millions of individual miners finally being able to get involved in cryptocurrency.

The botnets indeed eagerly await this.  I'm pretty sure this is a philosophically wrong goal, but we can debate that another time.

Botnets are unimportant and not an issue. How many +10k botnets are there? There are even less +100k botnets, you can probably count them all manually. And only Android has +1Billion 30-day active users:
http://techcrunch.com/2014/06/25/google-now-has-1b-active-android-users/
All botnets combined are just drop in the sea if only a part of those mobile users got involved in mining while their devices charge overnight. That's the best chance to bring cryptocurrency to the masses and scale the number of users by few orders of magnitude.

[dga]

Having GPU miner as part of the release bundle at very launch has to be mandatory for coin to be considered as "fairly" launched. CPU2GPU ratio is irrelevant. Even if it is 1:1 it simply has to be released immediately.

I disagree. We are eagerly awaiting for a coin that would *never* have a GPU miner, only CPU. There are people working on this, and Cuckoo Cycle looks the most promising. First coin which achieves this may be a revolution, with millions of individual miners finally being able to get involved in cryptocurrency.

The botnets indeed eagerly await this.  I'm pretty sure this is a philosophically wrong goal, but we can debate that another time.

Botnets are unimportant and not an issue. How many +10k botnets are there? Even less +100k botnets, you can probably count them all manually. And only Android has +1Billion 30-day active users:
http://techcrunch.com/2014/06/25/google-now-has-1b-active-android-users/
All botnets combined are just drop in the sea if only a part of those mobile users got involved in mining while devices charge overnight. That's the best chance to bring cryptocurrency to the masses and scale the number of users by few orders of magnitude.

Mobile devices can only mine while plugged in.  Their relative mining power is still very small - 1 billion 32 bit 1.6ghz dual core ARM chips are not insignificant, but when operating at less than, say, 25% duty cycle, that's roughly the equivalent of a few tens of millions of powerful servers.  Most users won't mine, period -- the ROI is extremely small compared to the time & knowledge needed to set it up, unless the device "just did it" preconfigured.  (But that's close to a mobile phone botnet).

How many nodes are involved in botnets worldwide?  This list is very out of date, but listed the largest as having 30 *million* nodes:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Botnet#Historical_list_of_botnets

More importantly, remember that botnet operators are, in the most fundamental sense of the word, total assholes.  They waste someone else's resources to accomplish their own gain.  They don't pay power, they don't pay capex, etc.  As a result, they asymmetrically benefit from CPU-only coins as a mechanism to monetize stolen computer access.

[dEBRUYNE]

What are the opinions on cloak here?

[tromp]

What are the opinions on cloak here?

They have a pretty nice logo...