The Observer Effect (take 2: over $1000 by 21 July - 8 Aug)

[Morbid]

Hello !
What it is wrong with your graph?
You have predicted for the July 2014, a Bitcoin price of $4,900 or at least $1,000 ..
Here we are now in July, and in fact the BTC price still bouncing around the $600 

have patience and look around. argentina is defaulting, bulgaria experiencing run on banks, ukraine economy is in freefall, not to mention rest of the world that is slaving off for constantly devalueing fiat papers. the dollar reset is coming very soon. gold market iou is faked but you cannot fake the demand for physical which is now absolutely huge. once some big entity fails to deliver physical consider the panic buy on gold. fun times. be patient and prepare accordingly.

[btcbeliever]

have patience and look around. argentina is defaulting, bulgaria experiencing run on banks, ukraine economy is in freefall, not to mention rest of the world that is slaving off for constantly devalueing fiat papers. the dollar reset is coming very soon. gold market iou is faked but you cannot fake the demand for physical which is now absolutely huge. once some big entity fails to deliver physical consider the panic buy on gold. fun times. be patient and prepare accordingly.

This is definitely something to keep in mind

[BitchicksHusband]

Hello !
What it is wrong with your graph?
You have predicted for the July 2014, a Bitcoin price of $4,900 or at least $1,000 ..
Here we are now in July, and in fact the BTC price still bouncing around the $600 

have patience and look around. argentina is defaulting, bulgaria experiencing run on banks, ukraine economy is in freefall, not to mention rest of the world that is slaving off for constantly devalueing fiat papers. the dollar reset is coming very soon. gold market iou is faked but you cannot fake the demand for physical which is now absolutely huge. once some big entity fails to deliver physical consider the panic buy on gold. fun times. be patient and prepare accordingly.

The US already failed to deliver physical to Germany.

[Bagatell]

New Laws That Allow The Government to Seize Savings Deposits During a Crisis



"This is not conspiracy theory or some kind of doom and gloom. It’s basic fact."

[hodap]

The US already failed to deliver physical to Germany.

Good time to buy gold if this is the case.

[Skele]

July 14th and still $630  Hope those $1000 are reached before the end of this year, you have 5 months  

[BitChick]

July 14th and still $630   Hope those $1000 are reached before the end of this year, you have 5 months    

News of the new regulated bitcoin fund opening up August 1st (with an estimated $200M being invested during the first 6 months) should get the rally started nicely and put us over $1000 and beyond without much trouble.  Add the Winklevoss ETF to the mix?  I wouldn't be surprised to see us at $10,000 before year's end.

[bitrider]

  Rock on Bitchick!

[wachtwoord]

July 14th and still $630   Hope those $1000 are reached before the end of this year, you have 5 months    

News of the new regulated bitcoin fund opening up August 1st (with an estimated $200M being invested during the first 6 months) should get the rally started nicely and put us over $1000 and beyond without much trouble.  Add the Winklevoss ETF to the mix?  I wouldn't be surprised to see us at $10,000 before year's end.

Don't get carried away (although I won't complain if it materializes).

[BitChick]

July 14th and still $630   Hope those $1000 are reached before the end of this year, you have 5 months    

News of the new regulated bitcoin fund opening up August 1st (with an estimated $200M being invested during the first 6 months) should get the rally started nicely and put us over $1000 and beyond without much trouble.  Add the Winklevoss ETF to the mix?  I wouldn't be surprised to see us at $10,000 before year's end.

Don't get carried away (although I won't complain if it materializes).

Bitcoin likes to get carried away!

[wachtwoord]

July 14th and still $630   Hope those $1000 are reached before the end of this year, you have 5 months    

News of the new regulated bitcoin fund opening up August 1st (with an estimated $200M being invested during the first 6 months) should get the rally started nicely and put us over $1000 and beyond without much trouble.  Add the Winklevoss ETF to the mix?  I wouldn't be surprised to see us at $10,000 before year's end.

Don't get carried away (although I won't complain if it materializes).

Bitcoin likes to get carried away!

I was talking about BitChick, not Bitcoin

Time for BitChicksHusband to come in and take this away? 

[JulieFig]

July 14th and still $630   Hope those $1000 are reached before the end of this year, you have 5 months    

So, clearly my previous prediction was off...... back to the drawing board I went, and I've now re-evaluated the prediction. (And when I say 'prediction', I use the term loosely. Bitcoin seems to like to spit in the face of any predictions people make. And I say that with great fondness.)

The rationale behind the re-evaluation: The first two bubbles were 214 and 213 days apart, the next was 222 days later, and the last two were 235 and 234 days apart. All up, the interval between peaks is uncannily consistent. However, it appears that the interval is marginally increasing (again, this is all based on very few data points, so no rock solid conclusions could be drawn from this). Thus, perhaps the next peak will not be 235 days from the last, but more along the lines of 257 (an increase on par with the previous increase in time interval). This puts the peak at around 23rd August, which is what I have adjusted the following chart to reflect. Seems we are on track for a possible peak of $5000... If we don't continue rising though, I may have to hang up my 'Bitcoin-predictor' hat.



edit: fixed small error in date

[BombaUcigasa]

peak at around 13th August

17th August the least (more by actually looking at your chart). Also notice that there hasn't been a jump from the local minimum (which was 600 less than 2 days ago) and from which about 50 days are required to reach the peak (31st August if the rise starts).

[JulieFig]

peak at around 13th August

17th August the least (more by actually looking at your chart). Also notice that there hasn't been a jump from the local minimum (which was 600 less than 2 days ago) and from which about 50 days are required to reach the peak (31st August if the rise starts).

Thanks for picking that up. The initial date of 13th August should have said 23rd August.

Based on the tone of your comment, I gather you aren't too hopeful that we have begun the start of an ATH rally?

[BombaUcigasa]

peak at around 13th August

17th August the least (more by actually looking at your chart). Also notice that there hasn't been a jump from the local minimum (which was 600 less than 2 days ago) and from which about 50 days are required to reach the peak (31st August if the rise starts).

Thanks for picking that up. The initial date of 13th August should have said 23rd August.

Based on the tone of your comment, I gather you aren't too hopeful that we have begun the start of an ATH rally?

If it did, that was 2 days ago, if not, we have to wait a bit more. It's not really visible, is it now?

[BitchicksHusband]

The US already failed to deliver physical to Germany.

Good time to buy gold if this is the case.

I'll get a link.

This article explains it the best:

http://nsnbc.me/2013/07/31/mystery-about-germany%C2%B4s-gold-in-the-us-solved/

Hopefully that site is ok.  (I have NoScript)

[BTCtrader71]

The US already failed to deliver physical to Germany.

Good time to buy gold if this is the case.

I'll get a link.

This article explains it the best:

http://nsnbc.me/2013/07/31/mystery-about-germany%C2%B4s-gold-in-the-us-solved/

Hopefully that site is ok.  (I have NoScript)

I had not heard that story until running across it in this thread.

It makes Mark Karpeles look like a Boy Scout by comparison.

[ShakyhandsBTCer]

July 14th and still $630   Hope those $1000 are reached before the end of this year, you have 5 months    

News of the new regulated bitcoin fund opening up August 1st (with an estimated $200M being invested during the first 6 months) should get the rally started nicely and put us over $1000 and beyond without much trouble.  Add the Winklevoss ETF to the mix?  I wouldn't be surprised to see us at $10,000 before year's end.

I would say that $200MM invested in a new bitcoin investment fund would be more then what would likely go into such a fund. I would argue that more money would be poured into VC that would invest in bitcoin related businesses.

I do think that the ETF will likely push the price of bitcoin higher.

[dnaleor]

I have updated my log chart, maybe interesting to share
used data: bitcoinaverage (starting at 17/07/2010)

Log chart

Trendline: P = 0,1711645509 * exp(0,0059413348*x) (with x = number of days since 17/07/2010)
R² = 0.8952

Log deviation from trendline (log(trendline)-log(exchange rate)):


And finally... The exponential trend on a linear chart. Always great to see this kind of charts  

[wayshegoes]

Where do people pull all this data? I can't see it going much over $700 this month, and even that would be a nice bump.