Novello Technologies new Mining System Project, prices as low as $0.3/GH

[xingqiaoyin]

We think profitable Bitcoin mining should be accessible to anyone no matter what their budget; by ‘profitable’ we mean a device that will pay back its’ purchase price in less than 3 -4 months, even with a very large rate of growth in network processing power.

The above was gleaned from the OP. Note the bold. Does that describe a customer or an investor?

Doge,
Even though your suspicions are warranted, that last post was very reflective of your obsessive paranoia disorder.

[Phinnaeus Gage]

Sounds promissing, some questions:
1) Entry price and scale of your product
2) your website mentions already sold high end mining ricks, is there proof for that? 

Hi, thanks for your  interest. I'm unsure of what site you're looking at, ours is still in development. We haven't made an asic yet never mind selling high end rigs!

Entry level pricing for a 250 GH/sec system will be around $349 on average. Higher spec ones, up to 4TH will come in well under $1/GH/sec.

And they won't be available until nearer the end of July 2014, earliest.

It definitely sounds interesting. One recommendation I would have is to make sure you have things in stock and ready to go before you start accepting orders. Too many companies are accepting pre orders and failing to deliver, or delaying over and over...

Launch it right and you will have many many satisfied customers and word will spread.

Yes, that would be nice but we don't have a spare $3m lying around and the banks won't touch anything related to Bitcoin. We do things a bit differently to the other companies, for a start we have 120+ years collective of experience in actually building complex  electronic systems all the way from consumer through to Mil/Aero. In short - we know how to plan projects so that they're delivered on tome and on budget. We do need some portion of the payment up front - there's no use trying to pretend other wise, but it will be somewhere in the region of 33 - 40% (and of a much smaller payment for equivalent performance)

We're also not going to screw people on price. The margins rig suppliers make are outrageous. To put this in some kind of context, we'll be offering a 4TH rig for well under US$4,000, still be making a fair profit AND paying the development costs out of it.

If we can do it, so can any other company. That is, if they don't pay themselves huge salaries.

Thanks for your post though. Hope we might interest you in our wares at some stage.

I did also a forecast, but only based on history:


Development of difficulty since 15.09.13
Dates   days to solve 2016   difficulty    increased in %
15.09.13- 26.09.13   11   112628549   --
26.09.13-7.10.13   11   148819200   32,13
7.10.13-17.10.13   10   189281249   27,19
17.10.13-26.10.13   9   267731249   41,48
26.10.13-06.11.13   11   390928788   46,02
6.11.13-18.11.13   12   510929738   30,07
18.11.13-30.11.13   12   609482680   19,29
30.11.13-11.12.13   11   707408283   16,07
11.12.13-22.12.13   11   908350862   28,41
22.13.13-03.01.14   12   1180923195   30,01
03.01.14-14.01.14   11   1418481395   20,12
14.01.14- ??              1789546951      26,15

= average time to solve 2016 Blocks: 121/11 = 11
= average difficulty increase: 316,94 / 11 = 28,81 %

Forecast
dates    days for solving 2016   difficulty    increased in %
14.01.14-25.01.14    11   1789546951   26,15
25.01.14-05.02.14    11   2305115427   28,81
                            11   2969219182   28,81
                            11   3824651228   28,81
                            11   4926533247   28,81
                            11   6345867476   28,81
                            11   8174111896   28,81
                            11   10529073533   28,81
                            11   13562499618   28,81
                                  11   17469855758   28,81
                            11   22502921202   28,81
                            11   28986012801   28,81
                            11   37336883088   28,81
17.06.14-28.06.14      11   48093639106   28,81

I was to lazy to put in all the dates :-D

We've spent a lot of time on a Behavioral Model to try to make some sense of what's going on. It pretty soon became clear that there is tipping point where miners will stop buying new kit, because they simply will never make a profit. The difficulty can't keep going up exponentially as a result (unless the Bitcoin value follows the same trend).Our prediction shows difficulty in mid-June at around 18,000,000,000,  25,000,000,000 by end 2014. At that time a TH will earn about $400 a month and eat a good portion of that in electricity costs. As a result, it's worth less than $1.3 per Gigahash/sec.

I've calculated the 50% loss basing on a 5 board delivery per BJ and an hashrate per board of 550GH/s (and an avg of 90%/month of difficulty increases, the default now at mining.tgb)
However since that HF should start shipping sometime like today for that to happen, we are talking about dreams.

Hi, I'm not from the US and so I don't know how close their company law is to it's UK equivalent. but I think that your chances of getting any 'consequential' damages out of them, ie losses you think you have incurred as a result of their non delivery of your rig, are next to zero. Most courts wouldn't consider such a claim unless there were very specific clauses in the purchase agreement (like the ones for Boeing's Dreamliner from the airlines).

For anyone that paid in Bitcoins, there's another complication as bitcoin isn't recognised as a currency (yet) so a court might not actually recognise that a 'legal' payment had taken place, unless you got a confirmation that your order had been received and that the full amount due in US dollars, not bitcoin, had been paid.

Has anyone actually received a rig yet?

Let's roughly look at the arithmetic:

At the current Bitcoin difficulty today, now, 200GH/s yields about 0.055 BTC, about $46.

So today that is about $46. Obviously $200 for $46/day is a good deal.

It's hard to take 1Gh/s for $1 as being creditable because if it's wildly profitable, there will be "shipping delays" and everything will be sold on top of that.

Very roughly if the BTC difficulty is increased by a factor of 10 by the time you sell your magic miner, then you are looking at a few dollars per day.

In summary, I really find it hard to believe that the average schlub will be able to make any money, because by the time this device is widely available, the ROI will suck, pretty much like every miner on Ebay.

The most interesting thing about your mining is what it will do the the ROI of the current monster installations. If your 1GH/s per $1 is not scam, I wouldn't be surprised if your competition doesn't try to hire away an engineer or 2.

This is a conundrum that I can never understand, If you miner can be this wildly profitable, you should be able to get investors to build this equipment and form a wildly profitable private mining syndicate.

Cynically, a profitable alt coin biz model these days appears to be to build an advanced miner and then market it when its reached about 70% - 80% of it's useful life to an audience that can't do math.

Thanks for taking the  time to post this. I understand your concerns, particularly with the possible increase in difficulty a $1/Gh miner might bring, but there's an underlying point here - dedicated mining companies already have very cost effective hardware and can deploy said for around $1.5/GH (or less).

That's what you're up against, so like it or not the difficulty is going to keep going up whether or not we make rigs, although not anywhere near as much as some of the more extreme posts would suggest. By August, our behavioral model reckons it to be about 20-22000 MM, about 10x where it is today (or 140,000 TH). At that level a 250GH setup would earn about $150 a month, or $5 per day, and pay for itself in about 8 weeks. If you can get a better return for that on your investment then go for it.

The average schlub who can't even get a seat at the mining table right now might see it as being a rather good deal for his $250.

There's nothing magic about our miner, just good design and a good dose of research. The engineers behind this are all in their 50's and want to do this as a professional challenge, money is not their primary goal and so the notion of a competitor luring one away is unlikely. They already have been offered a stellar deal by a VC group, but turned it down because the VC wanted to keep it 'in -house' and do exactly what you said and use it to mine for their own enrichment. The engineers didn't intend this design to make more money for those who already have it, they genuinely want to democratise the mining process and open it up to everyone.

Ultimately, like every other potential buyer, you pay your money and make your choice. I do hope you might consider us when you get to that point.

In this rather peculiar and specialised marketplace, normal rules don't apply. If you do away with all companies that start up with pre-order money, then you'll be left with a few that have past revenues to sustain their future development.

That would dilute any notions of competition - if there were, say, three left then there would be no real incentive to compete against each other, not when there would be such rich pickings, and like it or not, miners would end up paying a lot more for their hardware.

Just remember that buying is a choice, no one is forced to do it but they do because, as gmaxwell has pointed out, they have grand visions of making millions through mining. For most, that's simply never going to happen - you need too much money to start with to buy enough equipment, etc. That's not to say you can't make a reasonable return from a reasonable investment, especially if the chip/rig vendors stop being so greedy.

It will be very interesting to see what happens with the little ASICMiner chip - it's a nice, elegant idea but I'm sure it'll end up being hijacked by the middlemen and that end customers will never get anything anywhere near 1$/Gh let alone the headline $0.5/GH.

In this rather peculiar and specialised marketplace, normal rules don't apply. If you do away with all companies that start up with pre-order money, then you'll be left with a few that have past revenues to sustain their future development.

Thats not so. You can use clear terms and investment rather than pre-order nonsense. With transparency and equity in the business things would be much better off.

Just remember that buying is a choice, no one is forced to do it ... That's not to say you can't make a reasonable return from a reasonable investment, especially if the chip/rig vendors stop being so greedy.

Right and I hope with this thread to advance people's understanding and thereby improve the whole market place. If miner hardware charlatans cannot exist without miner buyer rubes.  I've never bought mining hardware with grand plans of making a lot of money, I've bought hardware with the intention of supporting the network— and hopefully not losing (a bunch) on the process, maybe make enough to pay for the effort.  I'm a little irritated that it's become hard to do that and to sort out all the fraud because too many people are willing victims.

Investment is a good thing, but many times it also equates to a substantial risk of losing your money. Experienced investors understand this, miners would have great difficulty in parting with their money for the promise of a potential future return. If company X says to you, "put $1000 into my company and I'll give you 1 share of the 10,000 the company will offer" the first question most miners will ask is "and what do I get for it?". The range of potential answers are mostly not what miners want to hear - they want a return, and in as short a period as possible. A conventional investment model simply won't work for most miners.


I'm sure that forum members appreciate what you're trying to do, and your philanthropic nature - I certainly do - but greed is always going to make people take more risks. Any experienced asic engineer looking at the Hashfast or Cointerra initial offerings would be alarmed at their underlying arrogance and lack of hard technical detail in their pitch. But many other simply see $ signs and the chance to get one up on their competitors, so take the risk. You'll never stop them, but I agree that it's worth the effort.

I really don't like the way in which new companies are attacked by members of the forum, but in your case they are more than justified. Your facts and figures don't make any sense:

You say you have already got prototypes coming this week. Now even in a MPW wafer run, given the power dissipation of your chip -extrapolated from the power supply size you quoted - it must be about 20mm on a side. For that size of prototype in MPW/28nm you would be paying close on 500k$, to get maybe 25 chips, not to mention the cost of design and since you're not an existing large customer, you would have to go through a foundry's agent design centre, another 400k$ or so. As you don't have your own mask set, you need to buy other MPW wafers to get your chips at a current cost of about $16k each to get additional lots 25 untested chips which might yield 20, or $800k each, $1600 for 2 chips for your miner. To get your full mask set you'll have to spend another $1.5 million dollars, and that gets you on wafers worth of chips, maybe yielding 90 best case.

So the money you are asking for is nowhere near enough.

To add insult to already injuring my intelligence, you publish a picture of what looks like a VGA chipset cooler and expect any engineer to accept that this tiny device could cool a chip dissipating 170+ watts?

Do I need to go on here and embarass you further - I have about another page worth of technical stuff - or are you going to stop this nonsense?

You trolling fools did get the part that the FPGA's are just the controller board not the actual hashing chips correct? Of course not, your just a bunch of backyard tinkerers who think they have engineering degrees.

No, the problem is that some of us do have Degrees, Masters and PhD's, design chips for a living and can spot an amateur fraudster like you a mile away, did you really imagine you were going to get away with this rubbish? You didn't even try to get the technology description right let alone your device specifications.

It gave many of us a good laugh though. Have to thank you for that, try a lot harder next time.

[Phinnaeus Gage]

We think profitable Bitcoin mining should be accessible to anyone no matter what their budget; by ‘profitable’ we mean a device that will pay back its’ purchase price in less than 3 -4 months, even with a very large rate of growth in network processing power.

The above was gleaned from the OP. Note the bold. Does that describe a customer or an investor?

Doge,
Even though your suspicions are warranted, that last post was very reflective of your obsessive paranoia disorder.

Not to disappoint, so how'd you like the mega-post above?

BTW, I've read this entire thread and all of Novello's posts.

[s1lverbox]

Novello correct me if im wrong: Are you in Regus virtual office place?
Why address pointing building with offices rented for days ,hours not months?

This is just getting more and more funny.

Check this UK limited company which was trying similar method of getting BTC from user of BTCtalk.
They tried to put risk on shoulders of users.

They tried to meet me as well to speak about my posts same as you to other members: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=624924.msg6950041#msg6950041
I think this ship will sink faster than TITANIC.

[pajak666]

Check this UK limited company which was trying similar method of getting BTC from user of BTCtalk.

Is there something specific about companies law in UK? is it easier to perform a scam there?
or is it just one person behind those two companies?

[s1lverbox]

Check this UK limited company which was trying similar method of getting BTC from user of BTCtalk.

Is there something specific about companies law in UK? is it easier to perform a scam there?
or is it just one person behind those two companies?

To get LTD,Vat and so on you don't need to do anything special.
Once all this is done , virtual office and nice story.Looks legit as hell because most of there customers think that if they(company) registered as Vat or LTD they cannot perform anything scammy.

Parabim,parabum and scam ready to go.

[Muhammed Zakir]

Well, thanks for your interest. We're in June already, good things come to those that wait!

I am waiting! I think it is providing cheaper price for GHs. I hope it will not be a scam.
Kindly,
       Muhammed Zakhir

[dogie]

I'm not a fan of this. The market is moving on from preorders (or trying to), and this is a pre of a pre of a preorder. The chances of actually ending up with a mass marketed manufacturer on time are less than 20%.

Hello Dogie, thanks for your post and input.

This isn't exactly mass manufacturing, but if you look at our FAQ's we've already said that it's a lot of systems to ship in a small(ish timeframe. It would be true if you has never been involved in such projects before and so didn't know what pitfalls or problems there might, but if you have experience and the correctset of skills, particularly product engineering and a set of known and trusted supplies and subcontractors, there's a very good chance that the whole process can run very smoothly.

We also said that most of the non-custom build would be done before we get the asic'c back, that includes the enclosures, PSU's, the controller boards and the DC-DC converters. Because our systems are modular, all these parts can be assembled and tested without the asic, in particular the Pi and it's ability to connect properly to the network. It can 'practice' mine with no asic just to test things out. The DC-DC converters can be burnt-in with dummy loads, ditto the PSU's.

The actual hashing modules will be built for us by a subcontractor. The on board MC can test functionality with having to be fixed into a system, so this speeds things up a lot. Once we have working modules, they get fixed into the rigs and get a full test with the network.

Hope this addresses your concerns.

This is the same thing which has been said for each of the 20 ASIC launches I've witnessed over the last year. What if your DC-DC efficiency comes back terrible on the first boards? What if your chip power consumption comes in just 20% over? Each of these requires a new PCB revision, new testing, new 'has our power plane melted', new production runs and delays.

I'm not going to be actively following this thread for a while as its more of a security than hardware.

[dogie]

Check this UK limited company which was trying similar method of getting BTC from user of BTCtalk.

Is there something specific about companies law in UK? is it easier to perform a scam there?
or is it just one person behind those two companies?

To get LTD,Vat and so on you don't need to do anything special.
Once all this is done , virtual office and nice story.Looks legit as hell because most of there customers think that if they(company) registered as Vat or LTD they cannot perform anything scammy.

Parabim,parabum and scam ready to go.

I can create (another) Ltd company in about 20 minutes online for ~$50, and send off the forms for VAT registration in another 30. It doesn't mean much in terms of validity here.

[PatMan]

Hence ghash.io registering in the UK......

It's means nothing tbh.

[Phinnaeus Gage]

Check this UK limited company which was trying similar method of getting BTC from user of BTCtalk.

Is there something specific about companies law in UK? is it easier to perform a scam there?
or is it just one person behind those two companies?

Nefario comes to mind.

[Phinnaeus Gage]

Check this UK limited company which was trying similar method of getting BTC from user of BTCtalk.

Is there something specific about companies law in UK? is it easier to perform a scam there?
or is it just one person behind those two companies?

To get LTD,Vat and so on you don't need to do anything special.
Once all this is done , virtual office and nice story.Looks legit as hell because most of there customers think that if they(company) registered as Vat or LTD they cannot perform anything scammy.

Parabim,parabum and scam ready to go.

Then, they try to use it as a badge of honor, not realizing they're screaming at the top of their lungs that they're a scam, i.e. "Look at us! Look at us! We's legit! See, we's registered, ergo we's not a scam. Now, yous paid naysayers back the hell off, for there's still money left on the table and we plan to get ours."

[Phinnaeus Gage]

Name:   novello
Posts:   112
Activity:   112
Position:   Member
Date Registered:   January 15, 2014, 04:20:49 AM
Last Active:   Today at 03:23:31 AM

Looks like they no want to get into a pissing contest with old, toothless Phinn.

I'm going to be outta pocket the rest of the day, so I might as well play this card now.

You know who else has an entity at the same address as Novello? This guy: http://www.spamhaus.org/rokso/evidence/ROK1310/alan-ralsky/partners-in-spam-rayed-esseily-stuart-l.-ralsky

[Bicknellski]

I'm not a fan of this. The market is moving on from preorders (or trying to), and this is a pre of a pre of a preorder. The chances of actually ending up with a mass marketed manufacturer on time are less than 20%.

Hello Dogie, thanks for your post and input.

This isn't exactly mass manufacturing, but if you look at our FAQ's we've already said that it's a lot of systems to ship in a small(ish timeframe. It would be true if you has never been involved in such projects before and so didn't know what pitfalls or problems there might, but if you have experience and the correctset of skills, particularly product engineering and a set of known and trusted supplies and subcontractors, there's a very good chance that the whole process can run very smoothly.

We also said that most of the non-custom build would be done before we get the asic'c back, that includes the enclosures, PSU's, the controller boards and the DC-DC converters. Because our systems are modular, all these parts can be assembled and tested without the asic, in particular the Pi and it's ability to connect properly to the network. It can 'practice' mine with no asic just to test things out. The DC-DC converters can be burnt-in with dummy loads, ditto the PSU's.

The actual hashing modules will be built for us by a subcontractor. The on board MC can test functionality with having to be fixed into a system, so this speeds things up a lot. Once we have working modules, they get fixed into the rigs and get a full test with the network.

Hope this addresses your concerns.

This is the same thing which has been said for each of the 20 ASIC launches I've witnessed over the last year. What if your DC-DC efficiency comes back terrible on the first boards? What if your chip power consumption comes in just 20% over? Each of these requires a new PCB revision, new testing, new 'has our power plane melted', new production runs and delays.

I'm not going to be actively following this thread for a while as its more of a security than hardware.

This is the reason why you need to state who it is and what experience your teams has if anyone is going to believe you can pull this off. I have to agree Dogie this is a security not a hardware post.

[eestimees]

I can create (another) Ltd company in about 20 minutes online for ~$50, and send off the forms for VAT registration in another 30. It doesn't mean much in terms of validity here.

20 minutes? so looong  , in Estonia the record to get a new company from blank-2-registered is 8minutes But VAT takes some human interaction - therefore takes more time

[s1lverbox]

Name:   novello
Posts:   112
Activity:   112
Position:   Member
Date Registered:   January 15, 2014, 04:20:49 AM
Last Active:   Today at 03:23:31 AM

Looks like they no want to get into a pissing contest with old, toothless Phinn.

I'm going to be outta pocket the rest of the day, so I might as well play this card now.

You know who else has an entity at the same address as Novello? This guy: http://www.spamhaus.org/rokso/evidence/ROK1310/alan-ralsky/partners-in-spam-rayed-esseily-stuart-l.-ralsky

Where the hell you get this from?

I was really against this from the beginning as this just  smell from mile away.
But this?

Is it really the same guy behind it or just pure luck to match them two at same details?

[Phinnaeus Gage]

Name:   novello
Posts:   112
Activity:   112
Position:   Member
Date Registered:   January 15, 2014, 04:20:49 AM
Last Active:   Today at 03:23:31 AM

Looks like they no want to get into a pissing contest with old, toothless Phinn.

I'm going to be outta pocket the rest of the day, so I might as well play this card now.

You know who else has an entity at the same address as Novello? This guy: http://www.spamhaus.org/rokso/evidence/ROK1310/alan-ralsky/partners-in-spam-rayed-esseily-stuart-l.-ralsky

Where the hell you get this from?

I was really against this from the beginning as this just  smell from mile away.
But this?

Is it really the same guy behind it or just pure luck to match them two at same details?

http://www.slrconsulting.com/us/locations-map/?l=eu
https://www.google.co.uk/maps/place/SLR+Consulting+Ltd/@55.867166,-4.273208,17z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m2!3m1!1s0x0:0xccadfb09f37807b9

https://www.google.co.uk/maps/place/SLR+International+Corporation/@47.796974,-122.206792,17z/data=!3m1!4b1!4m2!3m1!1s0x0:0x4bfce0d8f0da8443

SLR International Corporation
22118 20th Ave SE g202
Bothell, WA 98021
United States

http://www.thegeologistsdirectory.com/companydetails.aspx?id=5027

https://opencorporates.com/officers/38052370

https://www.linkedin.com/in/spotz

https://twitter.com/Spotz/status/412191125651587072

Spotz          @Spotz

Crypto Currency, Finance and Social Media Development Specialist. #Bitcoin #SocialMedia #FX

RETWEET
1
Mandy Tse

6:03 AM - 15 Dec 2013

http://www.spoke.com/companies/perfectest-corp-3e122f809e597c10033b0a33

(HQ)
22122 20th Avenue Se
Bothell, WA 10245

http://perfectest.com/

Visit our PCB discussion area: http://perfectest.com/pcbforums/

[Phinnaeus Gage]

Novello Technologies is run by none other than this guy: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Ralsky

[s1lverbox]

Novello Technologies is run by none other than this guy: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Ralsky

[Phinnaeus Gage]

Novello Technologies is run by none other than this guy: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Ralsky

To further prove that what I speak is the truth, rest assure that Novello will come on this here board and deny it.