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Author Topic: It's called a correction (waveaddict's bitcoin charting subscription thread)  (Read 86833 times)
windjc
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December 08, 2013, 09:09:20 AM
 #1101

Here's hoping that this high beta speculative test turns us all into millionaires !!!  But it does have enough similarities to gold to be able to use it similarly in theory at least to protect from inflation and such.

In theory...yes. But, as on now, there is just no evidence that it is an inflation hedge.

A big reason why gold and silver have fallen for the past two years is because the US dollar has risen in value. The fact that bitcoin has continued rallying doesn't exactly help its inflation-hedge case.  

Regardless, bitcoin has enormous potential, and I'm in no way bashing it. It could after all change the world and make a lot of people very rich in the process. On the other hand, it is by no means a sure thing. It is probably just as likely or more so that a lot of people will lose a lot of money in bitcoin. Time will tell. I would just stress that no one should ever invest what they cannot afford to lose in bitcoin.  

I'm curious about your opinion on the following. In catching up with the hundreds of posts in this thread, you make a strong case for why bitcoin is not like gold or silver as a hedge.

Makes perfect sense actually from that perspective.

But you also say that bitcoin tracks the stock market. As people are more willing to invest in anything, they are more willing to invest in bitcoin. Perhaps, you might argue, I don't know, that they need to be even MORE willing to invest in general before investing in bitcoin.

What doesn't make sense to me in this argument, however, is the fact that bitcoin has risen exponentially compared to the stock market. One might say, well bitcoin is like a penny stock that way - it was cheaper and so could rise faster.

But is seems that bitcoin - if not like gold and silver - is also not like the stock market. As it is a technology. A worldwide technology.

So far the primary mining and cultivation of btc has been in the US, and now spread a great deal into China. However, one might argue that btc investment is much more a worldwide opportunity than the US stock market. Also bitcoin seems to be a "personal" technology, meaning that unlike a stock, it has the ability to have a loyal following.

If institutional investors were highly leveraged in btc, then I could see an argument for why it might track the stock market. But, for the most part, institutional investors haven't entered in bitcoin markets.

It seems that it is very plausible that bitcoin rising while the stock market rises is simply coincidence. In fact, corrections in the stock market and bitcoin have not tracked. Of course, the correlation between the two is meant to be over the long term. But still, it seems that there is little emperical evidence to suggest that they are tied to each other, as we have not had a stock market crash since bitcoins invention.

In fact, it seems that there are many reasons to suggest that they are not. With the one caveat being, that if the world economy goes into throes, then all markets may suffer for a time.

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waveaddict
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December 08, 2013, 07:55:01 PM
 #1102

I'm curious about your opinion on the following. In catching up with the hundreds of posts in this thread, you make a strong case for why bitcoin is not like gold or silver as a hedge.

Makes perfect sense actually from that perspective.

But you also say that bitcoin tracks the stock market. As people are more willing to invest in anything, they are more willing to invest in bitcoin. Perhaps, you might argue, I don't know, that they need to be even MORE willing to invest in general before investing in bitcoin.

Sort of. I'm basically saying that the wealth effect from an increasing stock market makes people more willing and able to invest in risky ventures/investments. In other words, when you feel wealthy, you are probably more willing to buy something compared to if you are less wealthy.  

What doesn't make sense to me in this argument, however, is the fact that bitcoin has risen exponentially compared to the stock market. One might say, well bitcoin is like a penny stock that way - it was cheaper and so could rise faster.

Yes, I see bitcoin as more of a early startup (possibly a low cap tech stock) which fluctuates with but far more violently than the overall stock market because its fate is ultimately determined by how strong the economy is or is perceived. In other words, it has a high beta.

But is seems that bitcoin - if not like gold and silver - is also not like the stock market. As it is a technology. A worldwide technology.

So far the primary mining and cultivation of btc has been in the US, and now spread a great deal into China. However, one might argue that btc investment is much more a worldwide opportunity than the US stock market. Also bitcoin seems to be a "personal" technology, meaning that unlike a stock, it has the ability to have a loyal following.

If institutional investors were highly leveraged in btc, then I could see an argument for why it might track the stock market. But, for the most part, institutional investors haven't entered in bitcoin markets.

It seems that it is very plausible that bitcoin rising while the stock market rises is simply coincidence. In fact, corrections in the stock market and bitcoin have not tracked. Of course, the correlation between the two is meant to be over the long term. But still, it seems that there is little emperical evidence to suggest that they are tied to each other, as we have not had a stock market crash since bitcoins invention.

In fact, it seems that there are many reasons to suggest that they are not. With the one caveat being, that if the world economy goes into throes, then all markets may suffer for a time.

Until bitcoin actually becomes a stable commodity and/or currency, its success, as of right now, is based on whether or not people will accept/buy it -- a concept which is not so different than what determines how successful a company/stock is. Now, as I stated above, this willingness to accept/buy a new idea/concept is largely determined by how well off investors feel. During bad times, investors go for the safe investment. During good times, investors go for the risky one.

Absolutely though...this correlation to the stock market could be coincidental, especially because of how young bitcoin is. But, until it actually diverges, one has to assume that they will continue trending together.

I hope that I helped clarify some things. If not, I'm always open to further questions and/or a constructive debate.

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December 08, 2013, 09:40:25 PM
 #1103


Unless you have lots of capital and balls of steel, I strongly recommend against shorting bitcoin.

I would have to agree unless you have very tight stops in place...and even then a stop doesn't protect you if the price gaps up. There is an old adage about never attempting to catch a falling knife (buying during a collapse); the same can be said about trying to stop a rocket (shorting during a bubble). (...)

Does it mean that you always buy/sell at market?
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December 08, 2013, 09:55:48 PM
 #1104


Unless you have lots of capital and balls of steel, I strongly recommend against shorting bitcoin.

I would have to agree unless you have very tight stops in place...and even then a stop doesn't protect you if the price gaps up. There is an old adage about never attempting to catch a falling knife (buying during a collapse); the same can be said about trying to stop a rocket (shorting during a bubble). (...)

Does it mean that you always buy/sell at market?

When it comes to limiting risk, I always sell at market if a key technical area (~stop-loss point) is breached which goes against my trade. The risk of the market not pulling back is just too great in most circumstances. Plus, this helps take emotion out of the equation. But, when it comes to buying or selling into or out of a position, I usually stick with limit trades spread throughout a key technical area. Again, this helps take emotional trading out of the equation. Basically, I do everything possible to suppress my emotions Wink

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December 18, 2013, 08:39:49 AM
 #1105

For any lost TA sheep out there Wink, my subscription service is always available. 

Also, a quick premium update was just released. As always, happy trading all!

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December 25, 2013, 04:11:34 AM
 #1106

Merry Christmas, speculators! I wish you all the best of luck...yes, even to you perma-bulls out there. If you guys haven't already exited out of bitcoin charts to spend time with family and friends, now is probably a good time to shut down the ole' computer for a day. If not, you might have a serious addiction  Cheesy

   

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January 19, 2014, 09:46:02 AM
 #1107

Because of popular demand, I've added a section about litecoin in my newsletter. So, for all you litecoin enthusiasts, you finally have a reason to subscribe Wink

Although I currently use litecoin to complement my bitcoin analysis, I may expand upon it in the future if it can survive competition with bitcoin. Disclaimer: You should know that don't envision a future with multiple cryptocurrencies because its completely unnecessary from my perspective. But, in the end, I have and will always chart from a purely technical (TA) standpoint. I'll gladly leave fundamental analysis to economists (i.e. non-traders).

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January 19, 2014, 11:20:01 AM
 #1108

charts only work if majority believes and follows them

the ongoing theme of Bitcoin is breaking trends

Are you saying TA only works when the majority follow the chart? that cant be true. If the masses all followed TA they would all win, and that cant happen. The masses craft the graph through social mood/news, and because price is highly subjective, it turns out totally irrational. we read the graph, and the sentiment, we see the panic, we see the greed, we see the insiders, and we stay ahead.
The ongoing theme is still up, and the masses are still small.

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February 08, 2014, 06:16:16 AM
 #1109

For my longer term subscribers, a fairly important premium update was just released. Enjoy!

Also, was that last question directed towards me, chessnut? I wasn't quite sure.

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February 08, 2014, 08:34:57 AM
 #1110

For my longer term subscribers, a fairly important premium update was just released. Enjoy!

Also, was that last question directed towards me, chessnut? I wasn't quite sure.
no it wasnt directed to you - it was directed to Serge.

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March 25, 2014, 02:14:17 AM
 #1111

Hi guys. It's been a while since I've posted here. As usual, I'm checking in for anyone interested in subscribing.

I've finally decided to add one of my newsletters and premium-only updates from mid-2013 to provide an example of what subscribers can expect. The link to these newsletters can be found in the original post on this thread.

Even though these newsletters are old, they still provide an enormous amount of useful information for anyone interested in trading and charting. So, even if you either can't afford an extremely cheap subscription fee or don't envision subscribing, I would still recommend clicking on these links. After all, they might change your mind. Obviously, the technical picture for many of these charts have changed over the past couple of months and you will need to become a subscriber to receive updated newsletters.

As usual, I'm always open to discussing technical and fundamental opinions/ideas on this thread in regards to bitcoin and/or larger markets.  

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March 26, 2014, 05:41:40 AM
 #1112

This thread seems like there will be some interesting discussion taking place and the service offered may just be worth the funds.  I look forward to diving into this thread deeper in the coming days.  Smiley
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April 03, 2014, 07:35:58 AM
 #1113

I'm bumping this thread in case anyone is interested. Also, a premium newsletter was just released.

Without giving anything away, I'll say that Bitcoin is certainly at a critical area here. The next few days will likely determine bitcoin's path for the next couple of months. Happy trading all!

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April 04, 2014, 08:55:21 PM
 #1114

After April 30, the cost of a 6-month premium (trading) subscription will be raised to $280 from $210 to better reflect its worth/value. In monthly terms, this represents a ~30% price increase from $35/mo to ~$46/mo.

However, current premium subscribers, along with those who sign up before April 30, will continue being charged the original $210 ($35/mo) amount for as long as they continue subscribing uninterrupted, unless/until I raise prices again. Even if I raise prices again later down the road, I will still offer a steep discount to continuous subscribers.

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April 04, 2014, 08:59:27 PM
 #1115

I'm bumping this thread in case anyone is interested. Also, a premium newsletter was just released.

Without giving anything away, I'll say that Bitcoin is certainly at a critical area here. The next few days will likely determine bitcoin's path for the next couple of months. Happy trading all!

Ooooh. Where can I sign up to pay $280 for such amazing insights?
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April 04, 2014, 09:28:46 PM
 #1116

Let stupid noobs pay. I will have a service like this also! I'am a great guru.

If you hate me, you can spam me here: 19wdQNKjnATkgXvpzmSrkSYhJtuJWb8mKs
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April 05, 2014, 01:34:28 AM
 #1117

Let stupid noobs pay. I will have a service like this also! I'am a great guru.

Right...these "noobs" have definitely been "stupid" for subscribing to a service that not only put them on the right side of multiple markets (not just bitcoin) but also taught them how to properly trade instead of gamble in these markets.

Over the past 6-12 months I've not only predicted but also profited from the following:
1) bitcoin's end of 2013 bubble and subsequent collapse. I have not been overly bullish since then.
2) the rise and fall of the NIKKEI towards the end of 2013, early 2014
3) the fall of copper since early 2013
4) the rise and fall of the USD/JPY towards the end of 2013, early 2014
5) the devastating fall of AUD/USD in mid-2013
6) the rise of the USD/CAD since mid-2013
7) the fall of the SSEC since mid-2013
8 ) the fall of oil (WTIC) since mid-2013
9) the devastating fall of gold in early,mid 2013, along with the rise and fall of gold since early 2014
10) the devastating fall in silver in early,mid 2013

And yes, nobody is perfect. Over the same period, I've incorrectly predicted and lost some money on the following:
1) The chaotic rise in the EUR/USD since mid-2013.
2) The relentless rise in the SPX since 2013. Note that I haven't been continuation short throughout this period as many have been.
3) The relentless rise in the DAX since 2013

The remaining wins and losses from trading are miniscule in relation to the ones shown above. In conclusion, if you have been diversifying and actively trading all of these markets with me, then you have ultimately made a great deal of money.

And no, my premium subscribers know when I buy and sell these positions because I present these trades to them in real time and often months in advance. Ask any one of my current premium subscribers. I don't just predict these moves; I actively trade many of these positions so you know when and where I see great opportunities.

Anyone can make a prediction. Being mostly correct with these predictions is another story. Now, being mostly correct in multiple markets (big picture analysis) while actively trading; that's another ballgame. Look around and try to find a market subscription service that matches mine for the price and accuracy.

In conclusion, no one is stopping you, wobber, from starting a subscription service. If you are confident in yourself and willing to put in the time and pressure (remember, people will place their trust and money in you), then make one. But, please refrain from making this type of comment on my thread which doesn't add any substance and possibly deters potential subscribers. Remember, everyone is here to make money. I provide a service that has helped a great deal of people make a lot of money. Moreover, I also teach people how to trade and chart without me. In fact, many of the more informed/accurate chartists on this forum have done just this.

---------------------------------------

In response to infofront: how is the above content not worth $280 for 6 months or $45 per month ($1.50 per day)? Many of my subscribers have urged me to raise the price because they feel that the service is worth far more than what I am charging. In response many of these same subscribers have offered me gifts in appreciation because they know how rare my service truly is when you factor in the price (which is extremely cheap in relation to the vast majority of predictive services that you encounter outside of this forum that are more often than not terrible).

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April 05, 2014, 09:49:09 PM
 #1118

Never mind the noise above, waveaddict.

In case anyone cares, I recently became a subscriber, and my first impression is that his newsletter is worth every cent.

Not sure which Bitcoin wallet to use? I can highly recommend Electrum.
Electrum is an open-source lightweight client: user friendly, extremely fast, and one of the safest ways to store and use your bitcoins.
Executables are available on the Electrum homepage, so you can get a Bitcoin wallet up and running on your own computer in a few minutes.
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April 10, 2014, 08:37:57 PM
 #1119

After April 30, the cost of a 6-month premium (trading) subscription will be raised to $280 from $210 to better reflect its worth/value. In monthly terms, this represents a ~30% price increase from $35/mo to ~$46/mo.

However, current premium subscribers, along with those who sign up before April 30, will continue being charged the original $210 ($35/mo) amount for as long as they continue subscribing uninterrupted, unless/until I raise prices again. Even if I raise prices again later down the road, I will still offer a steep discount to continuous subscribers.

For those interested, there are 20 days left to sign up before the premium subscription hike. I'll send another reminder out on the 20th and 30th.

waveaddict
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April 23, 2014, 12:16:56 AM
 #1120

After April 30, the cost of a 6-month premium (trading) subscription will be raised to $280 from $210 to better reflect its worth/value. In monthly terms, this represents a ~30% price increase from $35/mo to ~$46/mo.

However, current premium subscribers, along with those who sign up before April 30, will continue being charged the original $210 ($35/mo) amount for as long as they continue subscribing uninterrupted, unless/until I raise prices again. Even if I raise prices again later down the road, I will still offer a steep discount to continuous subscribers.

For those interested, there are 20 days left to sign up before the premium subscription hike. I'll send another reminder out on the 20th and 30th.

8 days left...

In case anyone was wondering, the cost of a basic subscription will remain at $35/month. I'm merely raising the cost of a premium subscription on May 1.

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