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Author Topic: It's called a correction (waveaddict's bitcoin charting subscription thread)  (Read 86857 times)
Hunterbunter
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March 25, 2012, 02:02:34 PM
 #861

wow.
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pent
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March 25, 2012, 02:34:25 PM
 #862

Guys, I really dont see bullish signals here. Too heavy downtrend. Who is so brave to be opposite?

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March 25, 2012, 02:35:47 PM
 #863

Not sure, but I’m certainly not giving you any liquidity to cover. Grin

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
"these people don't seem to want to stop till Bitcoin is completely destroyed and left like an old cum rag in the corner of the room." - ShroomsKit
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March 25, 2012, 02:38:11 PM
 #864

Not sure, but I’m certainly not giving you any liquidity to cover. Grin
I do not ask. Just comment last newsletters. May I? Thank you.
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March 25, 2012, 03:06:57 PM
 #865

Yeah, I'm staying out of this.  My base price is so far under $1 now that I don't feel compelled to try to improve it at every little move, and I don't want to lose any of the bitcoins I've been able to snatch up from all these little freak outs.  Let's bounce off $3.80 or $3.50 or $3.00 or even $1 for all I care.  I'm going to try to take a break for a few weeks.
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March 25, 2012, 03:08:56 PM
 #866

I feel like he focuses too much on Elliot Wave Theorem instead of the underlying technical indicators, at least in the short term pictures. The Bitcoin market is still relatively tiny, and a single person with deep enough pockets can create "waves" on charts. Elliot Wave Theorem is all about mass psychology in markets, but with bitcoin - at least on short term scales - a lot of moves are created by a single or a couple of people, rather than the mass. There's just tons of noise on the shorter time scales.

Does anyone else feel the same? By the way, please don't take this too negatively. WaveAddict's longer term predictions have been really accurate so far, and while his targets were off a bit sometimes (The 5.6 H&S target comes to mind, but this is understandable, as technical analysis is more of an art than science), the direction of the longer term moves have been accurate so far.

And comparing him with s3052, the two are even so far on the longer time scales. Both initially said we'd be visiting a new low below the 3.80 low we had a while ago, but both switched to a more bullish view from the low/mid 4.xx, although WaveAddict called it out sooner, and you would have profited a bit more if you would have followed him.

From the low 5.xx range s3052 was slightly better. Both initially said we'd be visiting higher prices, but both switched to a more bearish view from the low 5.xx, although s3052 called it out sooner, and you would have profited a bit more if you would have followed him.

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March 25, 2012, 03:09:14 PM
 #867

Yeah, I'm staying out of this.  My base price is so far under $1 now that I don't feel compelled to try to improve it at every little move, and I don't want to lose any of the bitcoins I've been able to snatch up from all these little freak outs.  Let's bounce off $3.80 or $3.50 or $3.00 or even $1 for all I care.  I'm going to try to take a break for a few weeks.
My base price is actually negative because all I have in Bitcoins is profits.

And yeah. Bring it on. See you @ double digit. Grin

@Mushoz
If short term is too much noise, I recommend simply not following it. And I agree, there are tons of false signals and you will probably lose money if you trade it all the time. The clearest signals are kind of always at the extremes = turning points for mid or long term.

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
"these people don't seem to want to stop till Bitcoin is completely destroyed and left like an old cum rag in the corner of the room." - ShroomsKit
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March 25, 2012, 03:39:10 PM
 #868

Yeah, I'm staying out of this.  My base price is so far under $1 now that I don't feel compelled to try to improve it at every little move, and I don't want to lose any of the bitcoins I've been able to snatch up from all these little freak outs.  Let's bounce off $3.80 or $3.50 or $3.00 or even $1 for all I care.  I'm going to try to take a break for a few weeks.
My base price is actually negative because all I have in Bitcoins is profits.

And yeah. Bring it on.

@Mushoz
If short term is too much noise, I recommend simply not following it. And I agree, there are tons of false signals and you will probably lose money if you trade it all the time. The clearest signals are kind of always at the extremes = turning points for mid or long term.

Yes, you're right. But at the moment, there's no way for me to know how "clear" signals are. I know the very basics of TA, but that's about it, so there's no way for me to judge the probability of different scenarios coming true. Perhaps this would be a good addition, maybe even keep it for premiums only if WaveAddict would prefer that. But maybe he could add his opinion on each prediction he makes, with how sure he is of that prediction? It doesn't even have to have (a lot of) arguments, because that might cause it to become too technical (although this would be something positive for me as I love learning new stuff!). Even a simple percentage would do. That way we can get a feel of the certainty surrounding each prediction.

Also, I have another tip to improve this service. WaveAddict's current premium mails often contain price targets/directions, without any explanation as how he came to those targets/directions. I'm not saying he's just throwing numbers around, as when I asked about it, he gave me the explanation, but I think it would be better if you included the explanation in the premium mail. It will probably even save WaveAddict work as well, as he won't have to answer individuals about that. If it is important that the mail gets send ASAP, an explanation in a follow-up mail could be used.

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March 25, 2012, 03:43:04 PM
 #869

I've noticed Waveaddicts predictions are ultimately bang on, but it seems everytime he expects a small bump up after a fall, never happens.. I've saw it at least 4 times now, where it just never transpired, I would very very very minorly tweak your thinking along the lines of the heavy pressure downwards (selling) is oppressive and generally never lets it move back up.

As well as the up trends never transpire very high either because of the weight of selling keep it down..

I love the analysis, but trading on short(ish) term with it is very very hard to do..  I've given up trying any moves on bitcoinica as it is a horrible money waster, and just concentrated on mid term..

mid term, your bang on..


Keep it up.. Smiley

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March 25, 2012, 03:45:35 PM
 #870

Yes, unexpirenced traders should stay away from short terms independently what predictions say. Too risky, too low liquidity, too much manipulations.

I like waveaddict newsletter for many-sided analisys.
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March 25, 2012, 04:09:59 PM
 #871

I've noticed Waveaddicts predictions are ultimately bang on, but it seems everytime he expects a small bump up after a fall, never happens.. I've saw it at least 4 times now, where it just never transpired, I would very very very minorly tweak your thinking along the lines of the heavy pressure downwards (selling) is oppressive and generally never lets it move back up.

As well as the up trends never transpire very high either because of the weight of selling keep it down..

I love the analysis, but trading on short(ish) term with it is very very hard to do..  I've given up trying any moves on bitcoinica as it is a horrible money waster, and just concentrated on mid term..

mid term, your bang on..


Keep it up.. Smiley

Agreed! Very well said Smiley

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March 25, 2012, 04:10:52 PM
 #872

I feel like he focuses too much on Elliot Wave Theorem instead of the underlying technical indicators, at least in the short term pictures. The Bitcoin market is still relatively tiny, and a single person with deep enough pockets can create "waves" on charts. Elliot Wave Theorem is all about mass psychology in markets, but with bitcoin - at least on short term scales - a lot of moves are created by a single or a couple of people, rather than the mass. There's just tons of noise on the shorter time scales.

Does anyone else feel the same?
Exactly my feeling - as if someone was waiting for a triangle and then push it with force to break into one direction.  It is very hard to say what really makes me feel like that or what would I expect from 'natural' triangle breaking - but well this is my feeling as of now.
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March 25, 2012, 04:26:40 PM
 #873

And the deep pockets got subscriptions too. lol

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March 25, 2012, 04:27:27 PM
 #874

Today's email was just sent and should explain a lot. Feel free to ask me any questions regarding it.

-March 25 update (includes chart: 60, 67, 72, 88, 115, 116, 117, 118)

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March 25, 2012, 04:40:11 PM
 #875

I feel like he focuses too much on Elliot Wave Theorem instead of the underlying technical indicators, at least in the short term pictures. The Bitcoin market is still relatively tiny, and a single person with deep enough pockets can create "waves" on charts. Elliot Wave Theorem is all about mass psychology in markets, but with bitcoin - at least on short term scales - a lot of moves are created by a single or a couple of people, rather than the mass. There's just tons of noise on the shorter time scales.

Does anyone else feel the same?
Exactly my feeling - as if someone was waiting for a triangle and then push it with force to break into one direction.  It is very hard to say what really makes me feel like that or what would I expect from 'natural' triangle breaking - but well this is my feeling as of now.

I will definitely focus more on non-Elliott Wave charting for the foreseeable future with my day to day emails since what has happened these last few days makes little to no sense from an Elliott Wave standpoint and therefore I cannot just keep following slight error after error down the rabbit's hole. I'll always have a medium to longer term wave count available, but, for smaller waves, I will stick to pointing out: various underlying technical patterns, moving average support/resistance areas, various trend-lines and channels, pattern recognition, along with volume analysis.

EDIT: I am beginning to believe that my wave analysis has been compromised by the sheer number of subscribers that I have...many of whom are either 1) front-running my targets in order to get ahead of everyone else who is selling/buying in a certain area or 2) breaking my proposed support/resistance areas and wave paths that I point to in order to create a panic in one direction or the other.

Unfortunately, I really have no short term solution to this proposed problem that many of you have emailed me about. A longer term solution is obviously for more participants and more volume to enter the bitcoin market so fewer and fewer people would have the financial means to manipulate the market in one direction or the other as many currently have. Until that happens, the best thing that we can do is try to work around that problem by focusing less and less on the shorter term and more on the longer term especially when you are trading...and never ever use leverage.

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March 25, 2012, 04:44:56 PM
 #876

I will definitely focus more on non-Elliott Wave charting for the foreseeable future with my day to day emails since what has happened these last few days makes little to no sense from an Elliott Wave standpoint and therefore I cannot just keep following slight error after error down the rabbits hole.  
Do you have any idea why this could be the case?

It didn’t make any sense to me either. But then again, so did the rise from the 4.5, then the 4.75 low not make sense to me at all at the time. Like it wasn’t supposed to happen, and yet it did, both times up and down. I guess it will remain a mystery.

I enjoyed this email btw. Smiley

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
"these people don't seem to want to stop till Bitcoin is completely destroyed and left like an old cum rag in the corner of the room." - ShroomsKit
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March 25, 2012, 04:47:25 PM
 #877

I will definitely focus more on non-Elliott Wave charting for the foreseeable future with my day to day emails since what has happened these last few days makes little to no sense from an Elliott Wave standpoint and therefore I cannot just keep following slight error after error down the rabbits hole.  
Do you have any idea why this could be the case?

It didn’t make any sense to me either. But then again, so did the rise from the 4.5, then the 4.75 low not make sense to me at all at the time. Like it wasn’t supposed to happen, and yet it did, both times up and down.

I enjoyed this email btw. Smiley

Small market means people can troll all the elliott wavers.  When both major analysts are saying "up is the only option", down sounds pretty good if you have the funds to do some squeezing.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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March 25, 2012, 04:49:48 PM
 #878

I will definitely focus more on non-Elliott Wave charting for the foreseeable future with my day to day emails since what has happened these last few days makes little to no sense from an Elliott Wave standpoint and therefore I cannot just keep following slight error after error down the rabbits hole.  
Do you have any idea why this could be the case?

It didn’t make any sense to me either. But then again, so did the rise from the 4.5, then the 4.75 low not make sense to me at all at the time. Like it wasn’t supposed to happen, and yet it did, both times up and down.

I enjoyed this email btw. Smiley

Probably, because as I've already said, Elliott Wave Theorem is about mass psychology. There's just not enough people trading on the shorter time scales to call it mass psychology. It would most likely be a lot more accurate if the market was a lot bigger, but for now, I think it's indeed much better to focus on non-Elliot Wave analysis for the shorter term pictures. Also, I think the effectiveness of short-term analysis in general is too inaccurate for the Bitcoin market right now. As of now, I'll focus on mid and long-term pictures. I would have done very well if I did. Now, not so much Cheesy You live and learn, I guess Wink

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March 25, 2012, 04:58:04 PM
 #879

I will definitely focus more on non-Elliott Wave charting for the foreseeable future with my day to day emails since what has happened these last few days makes little to no sense from an Elliott Wave standpoint and therefore I cannot just keep following slight error after error down the rabbits hole.  
Do you have any idea why this could be the case?

It didn’t make any sense to me either. But then again, so did the rise from the 4.5, then the 4.75 low not make sense to me at all at the time. Like it wasn’t supposed to happen, and yet it did, both times up and down.

I enjoyed this email btw. Smiley

Small market means people can troll all the elliott wavers.  When both major analysts are saying "up is the only option", down sounds pretty good if you have the funds to do some squeezing.

I agree...I edited my last post which includes something like this

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March 25, 2012, 05:06:12 PM
 #880

So looks like you now agree with my concerns after all. Smiley

I’m just worried it would "devolve" into what I’ve observed with S3052 – "forcing" people to dump or buy upon the arrival of just one email within seconds/minutes, because everyone else is doing it. There’s also the concern that the analysis will become ineffective if everyone follows the same explicit targets, but perhaps I could use it as a contrarian indicator if that ever happens. Grin

I fully support your conclusion. Leverage and/or short-term trading in this market (at least on high volume) seems a no-no at least for the moment.

It’s possible that in past times things were much clearer because the market really was bigger. As an illustration of this, there were much more and much bigger bid walls (10k+ was common). I am confident such times will return again with the next hype.

Thanks for your honesty and transparency on your thoughts. I appreciate it.

"Bitcoin had been transformed from an anarachistic challenge to the financial status quo, to the crypto spawn of Satan, fuelled by cut-throat greed and delusions of avarice." - MatTheCat
"these people don't seem to want to stop till Bitcoin is completely destroyed and left like an old cum rag in the corner of the room." - ShroomsKit
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