10/21 EMA has crossed! Weekly MACD set to cross up! Full Moon in 7 days!

[ampere9765]

Nah we need news to move it like that.
no terrible news = no silk road type crash before the bubble

When I try to see the bull case, I get nervous looking at how much BFX longs there are, and how much BFX pushed this massive rise on Stamp (probably on margin). Those have to get closed sometime.

And where does one acquire information on the level of BFX longs?

There has already been a lot of profit taking on Bitfinex. Both the $680-$620 crashes were Bitfinex inspired with each of the red 4hr candles over the price slide being 15K BTC strong.

Their equivalents on Bitstamp were 11K, and then 9K, but then much of this volume could also include Bitfinex volume.

https://www.bitfinex.com/pages/stats

Longs rose from a bit over 20 million to over 22 million USD since that test of 615 level. So much leverage. If we bubble up, it's all good. If bulls keep getting rejected.....long squeeze.

[zimmah]

Still a lot of short term bears thinking the price will go below $650.

My advice is don't count on it to happen.

[MatTheCat]

Still a lot of short term bears thinking the price will go below $650.

My advice is don't count on it to happen.

I think it will go down to $580. But I amn't counting on it so went long term long at $660.

[FattyMcButterpants]

Still a lot of short term bears thinking the price will go below $650.

My advice is don't count on it to happen.

my advice is don't plan on a correction never happening. i'm watching the 590 level closely (.382), also 560 (.500). if those levels fail, could be that the rally is failing.

[sgbett]

I'd give about a 90% probability to some tree shaking.

If wall street really is coming into the market, then I don't think things will ever be as easy as

1. Hold to moon.
2. ride out pullback.
3. repeat

Those days are gone. Its going to be a hard ass test of nerve from here on in. I think we'll hit those lofty 4 or maybe 5 figure targets in the fullness of time, but I think its going to be a bloody mess all the way up with whipsaws, jitters and stop farming all the way. Thats the way wall st plays, get ready to feel the fear.

If anyone thought holding through ~31, ~266 and ~1400 was hard, prepare for shake-a-geddon.

(imho)

[T.Stuart]

I have taken what I have left in my Bitstamp account, turned it into Bitcoin @$660, and transferred it to an offline wallet.

From your previous posts regarding your Bitstamp balances you now have IMHO a not-so-bad chance of becoming a millionaire in fiat terms... provided you bury the keys to your wallet in concrete and then go on that overseas trip you were talking about a while ago. 

[Miz4r]

If anyone thought holding through ~31, ~266 and ~1400 was hard, prepare for shake-a-geddon.

(imho)

I think even with Wall Str moving in volatility will go down on average because the market is getting bigger and moving out of penny stock territory. Holding after 32 was by far the hardest one for people who bought during that bubble, great respect for those who have managed to pull through that one. I'm a 266 bubble veteran, which was also a pretty tough one but nothing compared to the 32 bubble. The 1163 bubble was the easiest to hold through I think, so the current trend is that bubbles are getting relatively smaller and the subsequent shakeouts less harsh. I don't think that trend is going to reverse.

[tupelo]

Agreed. With larger fiat input sum the volatility should decrease over time

[oda.krell]

I'd give about a 90% probability to some tree shaking.

If wall street really is coming into the market, then I don't think things will ever be as easy as

1. Hold to moon.
2. ride out pullback.
3. repeat

Those days are gone. Its going to be a hard ass test of nerve from here on in. I think we'll hit those lofty 4 or maybe 5 figure targets in the fullness of time, but I think its going to be a bloody mess all the way up with whipsaws, jitters and stop farming all the way. Thats the way wall st plays, get ready to feel the fear.

If anyone thought holding through ~31, ~266 and ~1400 was hard, prepare for shake-a-geddon.

(imho)

I agree with that.

There's a similar thought I had, which probably in effect matches yours: the complexity of the market increases over time.

(where "complexity" is not a well defined concept I admit, but rather the intuition that simple methods and trading styles are made obsolete by more sophisticated ones)

Case 1: As a trader, you could have been riding out the 2011 bear market with almost perfect accuracy based on a 1 month EMA alone! Just that: one (exponential) moving average. Stay short while below, buy back once break through. Doing that, you would have sold almost perfectly at the top, and bought back almost perfectly at the bottom.

Case 2: Try the above in April 2013. You will fail badly. Whipsawing above and below the 30d EMA several times. But okay: some methods that aren't /much/ more complex worked pretty well (triangle breakout, daily CMF, fib levels) gave a pretty clear signal to me, from around $90 in July, that we were out of the correction.

Case 3: Try the above in 2014. 2 major swings that, at the time, looked like reversals, and both times, we went back to the low point again (400s), and in the last one made a new low.  Not saying that TA doesn't work anymore, but I'm a lot more confused now than I was about a year ago.


What I'm trying to say is: I don't know if volatility will increase or decrease as a result of W.St. entering the game, but I expect the landscape for successful trading strategies to change: the "easy" ways to identify the bubble cycles, and sell near the top, buy back at the end of the correction, won't cut it anymore.

[kehtolo]

Damnit Oda... this is exactly what i was planning on doing .. this time.
I just held onto everything last time. And just when i think I've learned 'how it works' you guys come along and tell me it's going to be different this time.

Boo Hoo..

[sgbett]

I'd give about a 90% probability to some tree shaking.

If wall street really is coming into the market, then I don't think things will ever be as easy as

1. Hold to moon.
2. ride out pullback.
3. repeat

Those days are gone. Its going to be a hard ass test of nerve from here on in. I think we'll hit those lofty 4 or maybe 5 figure targets in the fullness of time, but I think its going to be a bloody mess all the way up with whipsaws, jitters and stop farming all the way. Thats the way wall st plays, get ready to feel the fear.

If anyone thought holding through ~31, ~266 and ~1400 was hard, prepare for shake-a-geddon.

(imho)

I agree with that.

There's a similar thought I had, which probably in effect matches yours: the complexity of the market increases over time.

(where "complexity" is not a well defined concept I admit, but rather the intuition that simple methods and trading styles are made obsolete by more sophisticated ones)

Case 1: As a trader, you could have been riding out the 2011 bear market with almost perfect accuracy based on a 1 month EMA alone! Just that: one (exponential) moving average. Stay short while below, buy back once break through. Doing that, you would have sold almost perfectly at the top, and bought back almost perfectly at the bottom.

Case 2: Try the above in April 2013. You will fail badly. Whipsawing above and below the 30d EMA several times. But okay: some methods that aren't /much/ more complex worked pretty well (triangle breakout, daily CMF, fib levels) gave a pretty clear signal to me, from around $90 in July, that we were out of the correction.

Case 3: Try the above in 2014. 2 major swings that, at the time, looked like reversals, and both times, we went back to the low point again (400s), and in the last one made a new low.  Not saying that TA doesn't work anymore, but I'm a lot more confused now than I was about a year ago.


What I'm trying to say is: I don't know if volatility will increase or decrease as a result of W.St. entering the game, but I expect the landscape for successful trading strategies to change: the "easy" ways to identify the bubble cycles, and sell near the top, buy back at the end of the correction, won't cut it anymore.

Yes indeed agree with this entirely. Complexity will drive out the naive traders, eating away at their profits or making them exit completely, all of which acheives wall st. goal of acquiring coins. It doesn't need huge swings (in fact those were easier to trade allegedly) it needs unpredictability. Just like real markets. I've tried trading in real markets and it burnssss ussss precious

That's why, as I do with equities, I buy good companies at fair value (I'm mostly in AAPL and BRK) and hold them forever. Bitcoin is a great company at (imho) at an unbelievable price. From a buy and hold perspective its a great investment.

From a trading point of view, I think it is soon to become one of the crowd. Good luck traders!

[Ibian]

SSS + buyback on dips. Doesn't matter what the price does, I benefit one way or another . In fact, the more volatile the better in the long run.

[MatTheCat]

Yes indeed agree with this entirely. Complexity will drive out the naive traders, eating away at their profits or making them exit completely, all of which acheives wall st. goal of acquiring coins. It doesn't need huge swings (in fact those were easier to trade allegedly) it needs unpredictability. Just like real markets. I've tried trading in real markets and it burnssss ussss precious

That's why, as I do with equities, I buy good companies at fair value (I'm mostly in AAPL and BRK) and hold them forever. Bitcoin is a great company at (imho) at an unbelievable price. From a buy and hold perspective its a great investment.

From a trading point of view, I think it is soon to become one of the crowd. Good luck traders!

Yet on the otherhand, many veteran traders don't recommend trading Bitcoin to n00bs (even though probs most people trading Bitcoin are n00bs). They reckon it is far too volatile and unpredictable and perhaps they have a point. A market that is traded mostly by inexperienced gullibles, yet dominated by sharks who have the market cornered and no doubt have 'couthie' relationships with the large exchanges and can boss the Bitcoin market around like a bitch, is going to be a notorious market for the masses being wrongfooted and fleeced.

Perhaps we are about to see a fine example of that within the next few days, when Bitcoin breaks out from this apparent 'bull flag' (despite the already massive gains), and the weekly MACD and 10/21 MA cross over to the upside, and all the noobs pile in, the sharks will choose this moment to capitalise and cash out of their BTC, crashing the market right back down to $500s causing widespread panic selling across the whole market in everyone except them, as they start rapidly buying up panic sold Bitcoin at the knock-down prices before using their market clout to ramp the market up once again. Not like these flash crashes and recoveries haven't happened a bazillion times before in Bitcoin. Treacherous stuff for the inexperienced trader.

Bitcoin behaves far more like a penny stock than FTSE 100 or Dow Jones listed shares and therefore, I would have thought that there are far more pitfalls for inexperienced traders in Bitcoin than in mainstream stocks.

[spiderbrain]

Those days are gone. Its going to be a hard ass test of nerve from here on in. I think we'll hit those lofty 4 or maybe 5 figure targets in the fullness of time, but I think its going to be a bloody mess all the way up with whipsaws, jitters and stop farming all the way. Thats the way wall st plays, get ready to feel the fear.

If anyone thought holding through ~31, ~266 and ~1400 was hard, prepare for shake-a-geddon.

+lots. The pros are coming and they know how to mess with people to get their money.

[pinksheep]

Y

Bitcoin behaves far more like a penny stock than FTSE 100 or Dow Jones listed shares and therefore, I would have thought that there are far more pitfalls for inexperienced traders in Bitcoin than in mainstream stocks.

That's why I'll just hold through absolutely everything. I'd love to get out after a new ATH & get back in again lower, but knowing my luck, I'd get out & never get back in. I'll HODL until I reach the figure I have in mind - either that or go down with it!! It's an all or nothing game for me.

[Dragonkiller]

Those days are gone. Its going to be a hard ass test of nerve from here on in. I think we'll hit those lofty 4 or maybe 5 figure targets in the fullness of time, but I think its going to be a bloody mess all the way up with whipsaws, jitters and stop farming all the way. Thats the way wall st plays, get ready to feel the fear.

If anyone thought holding through ~31, ~266 and ~1400 was hard, prepare for shake-a-geddon.

+lots. The pros are coming and they know how to mess with people to get their money.

The pros are already here. What do you think has been happening over the last six months? We went from ~$1100 to ~$300, they've been using the China FUD to shake people out and accumulate.

[Operatr]

Those days are gone. Its going to be a hard ass test of nerve from here on in. I think we'll hit those lofty 4 or maybe 5 figure targets in the fullness of time, but I think its going to be a bloody mess all the way up with whipsaws, jitters and stop farming all the way. Thats the way wall st plays, get ready to feel the fear.

If anyone thought holding through ~31, ~266 and ~1400 was hard, prepare for shake-a-geddon.

+lots. The pros are coming and they know how to mess with people to get their money.

The pros are already here. What do you think has been happening over the last six months? We went from ~$1100 to ~$300, they've been using the China FUD to shake people out and accumulate.

The whales have been playing that game since Gox first opened its doors. With Bitcoins lack of liquidity all a whale had to do was put up a wall somewhere and then start pumping or dumping to incite a panic the direction they want the market to go, and pull the plug for some profit taking while trade rookies lose their asses. With the altklones its even easier.

But now those whales will be battling other endowed seasoned traditional traders and investors.

Any way you slice it, the rest of this year will be pretty wild I think.

[sgbett]

...snip...

Perhaps we are about to see a fine example of that within the next few days, when Bitcoin breaks out from this apparent 'bull flag' (despite the already massive gains), and the weekly MACD and 10/21 MA cross over to the upside, and all the noobs pile in, the sharks will choose this moment to capitalise and cash out of their BTC, crashing the market right back down to $500s causing widespread panic selling across the whole market in everyone except them, as they start rapidly buying up panic sold Bitcoin at the knock-down prices before using their market clout to ramp the market up once again. Not like these flash crashes and recoveries haven't happened a bazillion times before in Bitcoin. Treacherous stuff for the inexperienced trader.

..snip...

[Carra23]

Still a lot of short term bears thinking the price will go below $650.

My advice is don't count on it to happen.

Very confident it will happen, might even test 550.

[Rdeschain]

Which might still come, by the way. Retesting the first retracement level at ~530 is still a possibility, but that's more a thought in the back of my mind rather than a likely scenario right now.

Every ounce of common sense in my head tells me that Bitcoin is more likely than not to test the 32% Fib retracement ratio at $580,

forget common sense....tell us what your dreams say...