Global Financial Crisis scenarios

[tee-rex]

Hi,

I have a question, but please direct me to a post if already asked:

In case of another GFC, would BTC bitcoin price:

a) stays on the same level 
b) skyrockets 
c) tumble down 

Take your pick:

This table is biased for pretty obvious reasons. In today's world of electronic monies fiat is as durable as anything else, highly divisible as well, and by far more secure than cryptocurrencies (cf. breaking into a bank account vs personal computer), let alone counterfeiting.

[CoinsCoinsEverywhere]

Hi,

I have a question, but please direct me to a post if already asked:

In case of another GFC, would BTC bitcoin price:

a) stays on the same level  
b) skyrockets  
c) tumble down  

Take your pick:

Anyone know where this image was originally published?

And if another GFC were to happen, I don't think the general public is ready to put all of their fiat into a cryptocurrency quite yet. There is still a liquidity issue and the tech issue.

I think you're right, a lot of people wouldn't.  But if some did such that bitcoin started rising in contrast to a falling stock market, it would look pretty attractive.  That might draw more people in.  Additionally, if a bitcoin ETF is available so that average stock market investors can buy in very easily, such a crisis might give bitcoin price a good boost, at least for a short time (maybe another bubble?).

[Ibian]

Hi,

I have a question, but please direct me to a post if already asked:

In case of another GFC, would BTC bitcoin price:

a) stays on the same level 
b) skyrockets 
c) tumble down 

Take your pick:

This table is biased for pretty obvious reasons. In today's world of electronic monies fiat is as durable as anything else, highly divisible as well, and by far more secure than cryptocurrencies (cf. breaking into a bank account vs personal computer), let alone counterfeiting.

Bitcoin can't be counterfeited. Can not. Up to you to back up your accusation if you insist on it. And fiat includes the physical kind.

[tee-rex]

Bitcoin can't be counterfeited. Can not. Up to you to back up your accusation if you insist on it. And fiat includes the physical kind.

I'm curious how you could misinterpret my message so badly. I was referring to fiat in respect to counterfeiting (actually, all my post was about fiat). How are you really going to counterfeit a Central Bank (or MasterCard for that matter)? Regarding paper banknotes (which still can be counterfeited), I can only advise you to weigh your chances to sell (or buy, just in case), say, a home for cash.

[Mobius]

do you think we`ll see something again like 2008? Its been 6 years already ever since that moment.

The 2008 collapse was something that generally happens less then once per lifetime.

The conditions to get the 2008 collapse are all there only bigger : reckless doing, 0% interest rate, government manipulation of markets, heavy regulation; except this time they will probably inflate the USD to make everyone whole so the stock market may not nominally go down

What caused the 2008 collapse was loose lending for houses (this also spilled over into other types of lending as well), we are not seeing that today. A secondary factor that contributed to the 2008 collapse was excess leverage at banks so investors could not determine if they had sufficient capital to survive.

[boumalo]

do you think we`ll see something again like 2008? Its been 6 years already ever since that moment.

The 2008 collapse was something that generally happens less then once per lifetime.

The conditions to get the 2008 collapse are all there only bigger : reckless doing, 0% interest rate, government manipulation of markets, heavy regulation; except this time they will probably inflate the USD to make everyone whole so the stock market may not nominally go down

What caused the 2008 collapse was loose lending for houses (this also spilled over into other types of lending as well), we are not seeing that today. A secondary factor that contributed to the 2008 collapse was excess leverage at banks so investors could not determine if they had sufficient capital to survive.

Lose lending was encouraged by the FED and the government with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

We have exactly the same situation now with very low interests rates that create the bubble, except now it is bigger, the same that were in denied are still in denied because they are participating to the foolish bubble

[blumangroup]

do you think we`ll see something again like 2008? Its been 6 years already ever since that moment.

The 2008 collapse was something that generally happens less then once per lifetime.

The conditions to get the 2008 collapse are all there only bigger : reckless doing, 0% interest rate, government manipulation of markets, heavy regulation; except this time they will probably inflate the USD to make everyone whole so the stock market may not nominally go down

What caused the 2008 collapse was loose lending for houses (this also spilled over into other types of lending as well), we are not seeing that today. A secondary factor that contributed to the 2008 collapse was excess leverage at banks so investors could not determine if they had sufficient capital to survive.

Lose lending was encouraged by the FED and the government with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

We have exactly the same situation now with very low interests rates that create the bubble, except now it is bigger, the same that were in denied are still in denied because they are participating to the foolish bubble

How as loose lending encouraged by the Fed? Loose lending was caused by regulations forcing banks to make loans to minorities via the CRA.

[CoinsCoinsEverywhere]

do you think we`ll see something again like 2008? Its been 6 years already ever since that moment.

The 2008 collapse was something that generally happens less then once per lifetime.

The conditions to get the 2008 collapse are all there only bigger : reckless doing, 0% interest rate, government manipulation of markets, heavy regulation; except this time they will probably inflate the USD to make everyone whole so the stock market may not nominally go down

What caused the 2008 collapse was loose lending for houses (this also spilled over into other types of lending as well), we are not seeing that today. A secondary factor that contributed to the 2008 collapse was excess leverage at banks so investors could not determine if they had sufficient capital to survive.

Lose lending was encouraged by the FED and the government with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

We have exactly the same situation now with very low interests rates that create the bubble, except now it is bigger, the same that were in denied are still in denied because they are participating to the foolish bubble

It does seem like housing may be getting into bubble territory again.  But what's a lot scarier, IMO, is the bubble in US treasuries.  If/when that sucker pops, interest rates will spike, and the US will be screwed.  We've been borrowing many trillions on the assumption that we get to keep financing all that at a couple percent.  If interest rates go up 2-3x or more, the extra drain on tax money or loss of government spending will probably throw us into a nasty recession.

[tee-rex]

do you think we`ll see something again like 2008? Its been 6 years already ever since that moment.

The 2008 collapse was something that generally happens less then once per lifetime.

The conditions to get the 2008 collapse are all there only bigger : reckless doing, 0% interest rate, government manipulation of markets, heavy regulation; except this time they will probably inflate the USD to make everyone whole so the stock market may not nominally go down

What caused the 2008 collapse was loose lending for houses (this also spilled over into other types of lending as well), we are not seeing that today. A secondary factor that contributed to the 2008 collapse was excess leverage at banks so investors could not determine if they had sufficient capital to survive.

Lose lending was encouraged by the FED and the government with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

We have exactly the same situation now with very low interests rates that create the bubble, except now it is bigger, the same that were in denied are still in denied because they are participating to the foolish bubble

It does seem like housing may be getting into bubble territory again.  But what's a lot scarier, IMO, is the bubble in US treasuries.  If/when that sucker pops, interest rates will spike, and the US will be screwed.  We've been borrowing many trillions on the assumption that we get to keep financing all that at a couple percent.  If interest rates go up 2-3x or more, the extra drain on tax money or loss of government spending will probably throw us into a nasty recession.

This won't happen since Congress will pass an act and Fed will print as much money as needed to cover all outstanding debts. And with the newly printed dollars, the happy US treasury bearers would buy even more US treasuries.

[Yakamoto]

do you think we`ll see something again like 2008? Its been 6 years already ever since that moment.

The 2008 collapse was something that generally happens less then once per lifetime.

The conditions to get the 2008 collapse are all there only bigger : reckless doing, 0% interest rate, government manipulation of markets, heavy regulation; except this time they will probably inflate the USD to make everyone whole so the stock market may not nominally go down

What caused the 2008 collapse was loose lending for houses (this also spilled over into other types of lending as well), we are not seeing that today. A secondary factor that contributed to the 2008 collapse was excess leverage at banks so investors could not determine if they had sufficient capital to survive.

Lose lending was encouraged by the FED and the government with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

We have exactly the same situation now with very low interests rates that create the bubble, except now it is bigger, the same that were in denied are still in denied because they are participating to the foolish bubble

It does seem like housing may be getting into bubble territory again.  But what's a lot scarier, IMO, is the bubble in US treasuries.  If/when that sucker pops, interest rates will spike, and the US will be screwed.  We've been borrowing many trillions on the assumption that we get to keep financing all that at a couple percent.  If interest rates go up 2-3x or more, the extra drain on tax money or loss of government spending will probably throw us into a nasty recession.

This won't happen since Congress will pass an act and Fed will print as much money as needed to cover all outstanding debts. And with the newly printed dollars, the happy US treasury bearers would buy even more US treasuries.

So they want to collapse?

"Oh, interest spiked?

Print another 185 billion dollars, halve our currency value, have people start dumping our dollars, and move on to something else, leaving us with a really poor exchange rate and decimated purchasing power."

Yeah, the US is doomed.

[tee-rex]

This won't happen since Congress will pass an act and Fed will print as much money as needed to cover all outstanding debts. And with the newly printed dollars, the happy US treasury bearers would buy even more US treasuries.

So they want to collapse?

"Oh, interest spiked?

Print another 185 billion dollars, halve our currency value, have people start dumping our dollars, and move on to something else, leaving us with a really poor exchange rate and decimated purchasing power."

Yeah, the US is doomed.

And that would be wisely called QE4 (5, 6, etc. ad nauseam). As long as they can keep inflation constrained (as they do right now), it doesn't matter how many more dollars they would print or how high the US government debt will spike.

So, to paraphrase your words, the world is doomed to bear the burden of the US debt.

[polynesia]

So they want to collapse?

"Oh, interest spiked?

Print another 185 billion dollars, halve our currency value, have people start dumping our dollars, and move on to something else, leaving us with a really poor exchange rate and decimated purchasing power."

Yeah, the US is doomed.

So is half the world, with their huge dollar holdings.

[Yakamoto]

So they want to collapse?

"Oh, interest spiked?

Print another 185 billion dollars, halve our currency value, have people start dumping our dollars, and move on to something else, leaving us with a really poor exchange rate and decimated purchasing power."

Yeah, the US is doomed.

So is half the world, with their huge dollar holdings.

Yeah, unless some countries decided to just start buying up lots of gold out of no where...

This won't happen since Congress will pass an act and Fed will print as much money as needed to cover all outstanding debts. And with the newly printed dollars, the happy US treasury bearers would buy even more US treasuries.

So they want to collapse?

"Oh, interest spiked?

Print another 185 billion dollars, halve our currency value, have people start dumping our dollars, and move on to something else, leaving us with a really poor exchange rate and decimated purchasing power."

Yeah, the US is doomed.

And that would be wisely called QE4 (5, 6, etc. ad nauseam). As long as they can keep inflation constrained (as they do right now), it doesn't matter how many more dollars they would print or how high the US government debt will spike.

So, to paraphrase your words, the world is doomed to bear the burden of the US debt.

And this.

The world is doomed, the dollar is set to collapse, so now we wait...

[tee-rex]

This won't happen since Congress will pass an act and Fed will print as much money as needed to cover all outstanding debts. And with the newly printed dollars, the happy US treasury bearers would buy even more US treasuries.

So they want to collapse?

"Oh, interest spiked?

Print another 185 billion dollars, halve our currency value, have people start dumping our dollars, and move on to something else, leaving us with a really poor exchange rate and decimated purchasing power."

Yeah, the US is doomed.

And that would be wisely called QE4 (5, 6, etc. ad nauseam). As long as they can keep inflation constrained (as they do right now), it doesn't matter how many more dollars they would print or how high the US government debt will spike.

So, to paraphrase your words, the world is doomed to bear the burden of the US debt.

And this.

The world is doomed, the dollar is set to collapse, so now we wait...

Why so? The world economic system would probably collapse if we had an asteroid hit the Earth or the Yellowstone super-volcano blow up one day. Dollar is just a money, a means to exchange things. What really matters are these things that are being exchanged for it, i.e. real wealth created by people. It just can't disappear in a flash.

[Mobius]

This won't happen since Congress will pass an act and Fed will print as much money as needed to cover all outstanding debts. And with the newly printed dollars, the happy US treasury bearers would buy even more US treasuries.

The FED is an independent government agency that should not be subject to this level of oversight. The Fed's purpose it is keep inflation in check and try to get the economy to reach maximum employment. Nothing else.

[boumalo]

This won't happen since Congress will pass an act and Fed will print as much money as needed to cover all outstanding debts. And with the newly printed dollars, the happy US treasury bearers would buy even more US treasuries.

The FED is an independent government agency that should not be subject to this level of oversight. The Fed's purpose it is keep inflation in check and try to get the economy to reach maximum employment. Nothing else.

Now they created a mandate of minimum inflation! Which is crazy

They are fixing the lending markets and most markets actually; the balance sheet of the FED went from 500B to 5trillions in a few years, we are in a recession and heading to an economic collapse in the US and even in most the western world : bonds and stocks markets are way overprices

[tee-rex]

This won't happen since Congress will pass an act and Fed will print as much money as needed to cover all outstanding debts. And with the newly printed dollars, the happy US treasury bearers would buy even more US treasuries.

The FED is an independent government agency that should not be subject to this level of oversight. The Fed's purpose it is keep inflation in check and try to get the economy to reach maximum employment. Nothing else.

The Federal Reserve System was established by an act of Congress, thus it is subject to congressional oversight (and it is Congress that raises the debt ceiling, which is just another way of making the Fed print more money through government (Treasury) borrowing). As I know, they could even dismantle it entirely in the case such a need should arise.

[the joint]

Bitcoin can't be counterfeited. Can not. Up to you to back up your accusation if you insist on it. And fiat includes the physical kind.

I'm curious how you could misinterpret my message so badly. I was referring to fiat in respect to counterfeiting (actually, all my post was about fiat). How are you really going to counterfeit a Central Bank (or MasterCard for that matter)? Regarding paper banknotes (which still can be counterfeited), I can only advise you to weigh your chances to sell (or buy, just in case), say, a home for cash.

It did seem as though you were indirectly suggesting that fiat is less prone to counterfeiting than cryptocurrencies.

I'm not sure what you're getting at when you talk about counterfeiting a central bank or MasterCard.  This seems irrelevant to bring up.  If you can counterfeit a bank note then what does it matter if you counterfeit the entity that produced it?  I'm really not sure what counterfeiting such an entity would mean, let alone what point you're trying to make.  Clarify, please?

[tee-rex]

Bitcoin can't be counterfeited. Can not. Up to you to back up your accusation if you insist on it. And fiat includes the physical kind.

I'm curious how you could misinterpret my message so badly. I was referring to fiat in respect to counterfeiting (actually, all my post was about fiat). How are you really going to counterfeit a Central Bank (or MasterCard for that matter)? Regarding paper banknotes (which still can be counterfeited), I can only advise you to weigh your chances to sell (or buy, just in case), say, a home for cash.

It did seem as though you were indirectly suggesting that fiat is less prone to counterfeiting than cryptocurrencies.

I'm not sure what you're getting at when you talk about counterfeiting a central bank or MasterCard.  This seems irrelevant to bring up.  If you can counterfeit a bank note then what does it matter if you counterfeit the entity that produced it?  I'm really not sure what counterfeiting such an entity would mean, let alone what point you're trying to make.  Clarify, please?

I was not talking about cash, I thought it was evident right from the start. The table thus shows a biased view on fiat as being more prone to counterfeiting than cryptocurrencies. How are you going to counterfeit a digital currency (which is presently the major form that fiat exists in) unless you somehow can counterfeit transactions in this currency? For this you would have to "counterfeit" a central bank (or at least a payment system like MasterCard).

And, in fact, fiat may actually turn out to be less prone to counterfeiting than some cryptocurrencies.

[giveBTCpls]

Hi,

I have a question, but please direct me to a post if already asked:

In case of another GFC, would BTC bitcoin price:

a) stays on the same level 
b) skyrockets 
c) tumble down 

Take your pick:

This is a beautiful pic that sums it all. Im going to translate this and show my parents and non geeky friends. It's easy to see how BTC is a legitimate place to put your wealth into. I hope when the world realizes this I have enough BTC to call it a day.