ANN: BITMAIN has Tested Its 28nm Bitcoin Mining Chip BM1382

[philipma1957]

At a diff increase of 18%, $.15kwh, 500gh, 400watt the S3 mines less than 1 BTC before it operates in the RED, if it starts mining today.

The problem with that assumption is that we are nearing roads end in terms of efficiency, exponential growth can only be sustained by better efficiency or increase in BTC price. There wont be something out that is for example 0,1W/GH this year that could keep fueling growth and make other hardware obsolete.

yep and of course many people simply don't understand fiat price rules for all , but those that have completely free power cost.

 Ie no power company wants or accepts  btc to pay the bill.  so to stick blindly to btc roi and completely ignore fiat roi is  a sure way to make yourself a loser.

 S-1s burning 400 watts at 25 cents a kwatt would make  fiat roi if btc goes to 1000 usd.   Those that say but if you purchased btc and held  you would have made more don't understand  the game at all .

Had this argument so many times.      Sad but actually good for me.

[hurricandave]

Bitmain believes in thermal pads, no need for paste!

[-droid-]

i just emailed bitmain asking when website will be updated with the S3 and they replied saying probably end of June

wtf?

unless my question confused them and end of June is when they start SHIPPING!!! omg omg

[s1gs3gv]

At a diff increase of 18%, $.15kwh, 500gh, 400watt the S3 mines less than 1 BTC before it operates in the RED, if it starts mining today.

The problem with that assumption is that we are nearing roads end in terms of efficiency, exponential growth can only be sustained by better efficiency or increase in BTC price. There wont be something out that is for example 0,1W/GH this year that could keep fueling growth and make other hardware obsolete.

I'm not sure which part of my statement you consider an assumption …
Presumably you mean the 18% diff increase ?

Scraping out a few uBTC at the end of life isn't a big issue in ROI. Sure better efficiency allows you to prolong the life of equipment, but its contribution to ROI is negligible.

One of three things needs to happen to ensure that mining remains profitable, either the $/GH of equipment goes down, the price of BTC goes up, or the difficulty goes down.

Difficulty isn't going down anytime soon, BTC isn't going up co-measurate with the rate at which difficulty is increasing, so miners need to get cheaper.

1 BTC for a S3 is just silly.

[dlowings]

Don't forget about the upgrade options for both S1 and S2 owners.

There is an official statement from bitmain about these upgrades?

Read the product sales info under the S2 kit on the Bitmain website.. It clearly says they will keep their S2 product line upgradable .

[Syke]

S-1s burning 400 watts at 25 cents a kwatt would make  fiat roi if btc goes to 1000 usd.   Those that say but if you purchased btc and held  you would have made more don't understand  the game at all .

Had this argument so many times.      Sad but actually good for me.

Fiat RoI is useless, and I can prove it. Let's say your target is +50% RoI.

BTC RoI: Buy a miner for 1 BTC worth $610 USD now. Miner generates 1.5 BTC over its life. +50% BTC RoI.

Fiat RoI: Send me 1 BTC now worth $610 USD. When BTC goes to $1000, I'll send you .915 BTC worth $915. +50% Fiat RoI.

If you truly believe in Fiat ROI, I offer you a guaranteed +50% fiat profit. How many BTC will you send me now?

[-droid-]

S-1s burning 400 watts at 25 cents a kwatt would make  fiat roi if btc goes to 1000 usd.   Those that say but if you purchased btc and held  you would have made more don't understand  the game at all .

Had this argument so many times.      Sad but actually good for me.

Fiat RoI is useless, and I can prove it. Let's say your target is +50% RoI.

BTC RoI: Buy a miner for 1 BTC worth $610 USD now. Miner generates 1.5 BTC over its life. +50% BTC RoI.

Fiat RoI: Send me 1 BTC now worth $610 USD. When BTC goes to $1000, I'll send you .915 BTC worth $915. +50% Fiat RoI.

If you truly believe in Fiat ROI, I offer you a guaranteed +50% fiat profit. How many BTC will you send me now?

i believe in fiat ROI because BTC is so volatile, I 'dollar cost average' my mining income and cash out weekly to bi-weekly to fiat, this has proven a great strategy.  especially after timing the market right and cashing out on high points and holding on low points

[klondike_bar]

S-1s burning 400 watts at 25 cents a kwatt would make  fiat roi if btc goes to 1000 usd.   Those that say but if you purchased btc and held  you would have made more don't understand  the game at all .

Had this argument so many times.      Sad but actually good for me.

Fiat RoI is useless, and I can prove it. Let's say your target is +50% RoI.

BTC RoI: Buy a miner for 1 BTC worth $610 USD now. Miner generates 1.5 BTC over its life. +50% BTC RoI.

Fiat RoI: Send me 1 BTC now worth $610 USD. When BTC goes to $1000, I'll send you .915 BTC worth $915. +50% Fiat RoI.

If you truly believe in Fiat ROI, I offer you a guaranteed +50% fiat profit. How many BTC will you send me now?

fiat ROI is a poor basis for mining hardware. should be based on BTC ROI since btc is what is produced. 1BTC S3 should produce 1.5BTC minus ~$200-400 power costs depending on local electricity rates. Bitmain had this formula done well with the S1 but f*cked it in the backside with the S2 in USD - they were actually raising the price daily as USD/BTC rose which was just silly.

[s1gs3gv]

S-1s burning 400 watts at 25 cents a kwatt would make  fiat roi if btc goes to 1000 usd.   Those that say but if you purchased btc and held  you would have made more don't understand  the game at all .

Had this argument so many times.      Sad but actually good for me.

Fiat RoI is useless, and I can prove it. Let's say your target is +50% RoI.

BTC RoI: Buy a miner for 1 BTC worth $610 USD now. Miner generates 1.5 BTC over its life. +50% BTC RoI.

Fiat RoI: Send me 1 BTC now worth $610 USD. When BTC goes to $1000, I'll send you .915 BTC worth $915. +50% Fiat RoI.

If you truly believe in Fiat ROI, I offer you a guaranteed +50% fiat profit. How many BTC will you send me now?

Sorry to question your logic Hero Syke but your statement is only true if BTC goes to $1000. If it remains the same over the time interval in question, there is no difference. If it goes down and you guarantee me a 50% fiat ROI you'll be out of pocket ...

[taipo]

I'm not seeing how one could upgrade their S1 to these S3s.

Let's see, the S1 is made of a little, yet sturdy, frame.  Two blades with massive heatsinks on them, with tons of thermalpaste.  And a fan.
What would be kept in the S3?  The frame and fan?  What kind of upgrade is that?

Or we could be separating the blades from the heatsinks.. and make a huge mess of thermalpaste, apply our own, and re-assemble.  That'll make it lighter to ship, for sure, but not much of a user friendly upgrade IMHO.

Or we could be sending our S1s back to them.. who wants to do that?  8lbs a piece, IIRC.

M

The fan and the PSU on my current S1 would be usable...

[taipo]

So to sum it up - the price is bound to be disappointing - but we will pay it at all costs...

Miners are a multitasking variety of humans. While being disappointed at any cost or delivery time, miners can also at the same time be in the speculation forums heralding the downfall of mining, while reloading the BITMAINTECH website every few minutes just in case BITMAINTECH decided to add the S3 earlier than planned....

[klondike_bar]

At a diff increase of 18%, $.15kwh, 500gh, 400watt the S3 mines less than 1 BTC before it operates in the RED, if it starts mining today. And that is after 179 days of exposure to the risk that the network hash rate won't go ballistic.

There is absolutely no way anyone in their right mind should consider paying 1 BTC for an S3

the difficulty increases are no longer 18%/jump. Its closer to 14%/jump if you average the last 5 or so, and its visibly decreasing. (the network is no longer doubling every month - not sure if anyone noticed it now takes 7-10 weeks per doubling)

I would pay 1BTC for an S3 - possibly up to 1.1BTC if it DELIVERS before the end of June.

IMO, they need a larger S4 device similar to the S2 but better optimized for hashrate and without the shipping issues. If they could pack 4TH/3.5kW into a 4U case for ~8BTC i would be very interested. These little <1TH machines will very soon be worth less than $100 each and will require large awkward stacks of them ziptied together if anyone wants to operate a farm with over $10,000 of equipment

The SP30 will be 6TH / 2.8kW / 2U very soon - bitmain needs a similar pro-level mining device. The S2 wasn't terrible, but the chips were a little too undervolted and the unit wasn't built well for shipping with fumbly couriers that kick or drop their cargo.

[Syke]

Sorry to question your logic Hero Syke but your statement is only true if BTC goes to $1000. If it remains the same over the time interval in question, there is no difference. If it goes down and you guarantee me a 50% fiat ROI you'll be out of pocket ...

That was the claim. He claimed if BTC goes to $1000 then he has ROI'd in fiat. I proved him wrong.

[taipo]

the difficulty increases are no longer 18%/jump. Its closer to 14%/jump if you average the last 5 or so, and its visibly decreasing. (the network is no longer doubling every month - not sure if anyone noticed it now takes 7-10 weeks per doubling)

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty says its 18% but that usually drops after a week in the lead up to the next hike.
( Estimated Next Difficulty:   15,980,709,911 (+18.70%) )

I would pay 1BTC for an S3 - possibly up to 1.1BTC if it DELIVERS before the end of June.

I was originally thinking its going to be somewhere around 1.5 BTC, but now I am thinking it maybe even higher being this is batch 1 of the S3, and if the price was fixed to BTC, would drop slowly over the following months along with bigger drops as batch 2, 3 and 4 come out.

[ZiG]

S3 make me horny...me buy you hash long time.

Call your GF...or wife...or hooker...

[mdude77]

Or we could be separating the blades from the heatsinks.. and make a huge mess of thermalpaste, apply our own, and re-assemble.  That'll make it lighter to ship, for sure, but not much of a user friendly upgrade IMHO.

Or we could be sending our S1s back to them.. who wants to do that?  8lbs a piece, IIRC.

M

Oh no, not thermal paste!  I see what you're saying there, but all of that work for a cheaper (?) upgrade to more than double the output of the S1 isn't out of the question.  How much fucking around did you do with whatever GPU's you ran to keep them running right on the edge of failure?  So, THAT was okay, for whatever meager earnings it got you, but having to turn some screws and deal with thermal paste is a non-starter? OK then.

I wasn't thinking about me.  Yes, I, and a lot of techies would be just fine doing it.  But the S1 was geared towards mainstream users ... plug it in, and go.  The average user needs a straightforward clean path to upgrade.

As for the frame... don't forget the new surrounding enclosure.  That's not going to be light.

M

[s1gs3gv]

At a diff increase of 18%, $.15kwh, 500gh, 400watt the S3 mines less than 1 BTC before it operates in the RED, if it starts mining today. And that is after 179 days of exposure to the risk that the network hash rate won't go ballistic.

There is absolutely no way anyone in their right mind should consider paying 1 BTC for an S3

the difficulty increases are no longer 18%/jump. Its closer to 14%/jump if you average the last 5 or so, and its visibly decreasing. (the network is no longer doubling every month - not sure if anyone noticed it now takes 7-10 weeks per doubling)

We have been blessed with a short respite. It is about to get much much worse.

[ZiG]

there is zero chance these will be less than $1000 US. bet.

There is a zero chance that I will buy S3 @ $1000 pricetag...Bet...?

[faetos]

the difficulty increases are no longer 18%/jump. Its closer to 14%/jump if you average the last 5 or so, and its visibly decreasing. (the network is no longer doubling every month - not sure if anyone noticed it now takes 7-10 weeks per doubling)

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty says its 18% but that usually drops after a week in the lead up to the next hike.
( Estimated Next Difficulty:   15,980,709,911 (+18.70%) )

I would pay 1BTC for an S3 - possibly up to 1.1BTC if it DELIVERS before the end of June.

I was originally thinking its going to be somewhere around 1.5 BTC, but now I am thinking it maybe even higher being this is batch 1 of the S3, and if the price was fixed to BTC, would drop slowly over the following months along with bigger drops as batch 2, 3 and 4 come out.

1 BTC with some coupons thrown in would be quite competitively priced. I really am glad that they are taking the modular small approach. It helps to spread out the power and heat in different locations.

[s1gs3gv]

there is zero chance these will be less than $1000 US. bet.

There is a zero chance that I will buy S3 @ $1000 pricetag...Bet...?

There is zero chance I will buy one for 1 BTC